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Prediction Contest Rule Changes Effective Immediately

We normally have some our posters reduce their participation towards the end of the season because they are too far back to place in the contests. Thus, I am always trying to think of ways to make the contests interesting for the entire season.

Here are some changes I'm going to implement immediately. I welcome any feedback.


Here are our 5 contests:


Contest 5: Early Season Non-Conference Contest (only games that UNC participating )
Winners: Top 6 players win 3-month subscription to Premium
7 games

  • Battle for Atlantis (Possible opponents - Arkansas, Memphis, Michigan, Texas Tech, Villanova)
  • Tennessee (ACC/SEC Challenge)
  • UConn (Jimmy V Classic)
  • Kentucky (CBS Sports Classic)
  • Oklahoma (Jumpman Invitational)


Contest Rules:
Contest #1: Total points for entire season (SEE CHANGE BELOW)
Contest #2: Reset: Total points after game #15
Contest #3: Final Four Pool Bracket (Top 64 players)
Contest #4 Grand Prize: Total points ACC and NCAA tournaments games through title game (contest continues even if UNC eliminated)
Contest #5 Early Season Non-Conference Contest


CHANGES
Contest #1: Winners will be declared immediately after game #15.
Prizes will be distributed within 2 weeks.


Contest #5: Winners will be declared immediately after Oklahoma game (Jumpman Invitational)
Prizes will be distributed within 2 weeks.



I want to get these prizes out quicker, plus reduce the amount of administrated work which helps me reduce the errors. Thus, after game #15 everyone gets a fresh start and hopefully we can get more participation in Contest# 2 for the rest of the season.

Also, I may increase triple point games to help reduce runaway winners (smile).

There are a couple of administrated issues with a couple of winners from last year. I hope to get these issues resolved today and get your subscriptions processed. Please look for an email and please follow the instructions.

Finally, I personally play for the fun of it. I will donate any prize that I win this year.

Go Heels!
Steat

Carolina vs UConn at Madison Square Garden game thread——Tuesday 5 December

The biggest test of the year for the up and coming Tar Heels and I am going to probably miss all of the first half because I will be taking my wife out to dinner and then watching a Christmas show at Myrtle Beach where it is in the low 70’s… I luv Carolina sports but I love my wife more so somebody else can carry the torch tonight and give frequent updates and reports so that I can also follow along when the wife is not looking….

I do not remember if it was Newton or Castle that lit up Kansas all night in their battle last week but they are both shooters and most importantly stand 6’5 where Carolina’s starting guards are barely six feet if that. Maybe Ryan or more Likely Trimble can hold him down some. Anyway it looks like fun in the Garden tonight and as always Give em Hell Heels…

Slow af stuff (Yukon)

….and I predicted this

Sorry for being so late with this but I had the golden bachelor finale on tape and wanted to see that before any spoilers came up

First of all before we address the elephant….er…zebra… in the room I’ll point out we didnt score enough points. If all the starters had scored three more points we woulda won. Anyone can score three points. Come on guys

I’ve been saying all season to try harder. And noones listening. See what happens?

Once again…we let them score too much. When will this staff learn that we can’t let them score. Throw the picket fence at them. Or the 22 skidoo. Double secret jump switch. Something.

And that guy for them that kept cheating. Why didn’t the referees do something??!! Pretty sure it’s the same crew that screwed us last time we lost.

Anyway on to the next game.

Roll tide

STAT REVIEW: UConn (12/5/23)

STATVALUEPCTLEHISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%44 38
UNC_statBox_35.png

3FG%35 49
UNC_statBox_45.png

2FG%49 39
UNC_statBox_35.png

FT%59 17
UNC_statBox_15.png

fg%52 8
UNC_statBox_5.png

3fg%32 55
UNC_statBox_55.png

2fg%69 1
UNC_statBox_0.png

ft%56 80
UNC_statBox_75.png

PTS/POSS0.95 55
UNC_statBox_50.png

pts/poss1.09 4
UNC_statBox_0.png

TOTPOSS160 29
UNC_statBox_25.png

POSDIF0 38
UNC_statBox_35.png

%LOB9 93
UNC_statBox_90.png

%lob10 11
UNC_statBox_10.png

SmithIdx-0.237512
UNC_statBox_10.png

Interesting Stats
ast/poss0.31 0
UNC_statBox_0.png

AST/POSS0.34 88
UNC_statBox_85.png

OR%0.29 28
UNC_statBox_25.png

or%0.34 12
UNC_statBox_10.png

%FROM331.762
UNC_statBox_60.png


STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
OR% = UNC Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.344)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
or% = Opponent Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.241)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)
Discussion
UNC faced UConn in Madison Square Game in what, for 3 quarters, was an excellent basketball game. UNC cut UConn's once 13-point lead to 5 with 11 minutes remaining, but the Heel ran out of gas and were unable to perform well in any aspect of the game in the final quarter.

The Heels scored an excellent 0.95 points per possession, but allowed 1.09 from UConn. At halftime UNC had scored 1.06 to UConn's 1.07, so that should give some idea of how the second half went for UNC. In the last 1000 games, UNC has allowed that kind of a performance from 42 other opponents. UConn shot 52% from inside the arc, a performance we've seen from only 78 opponents since 1996. More importantly UNC only pushed UConn to turn it over on 10% of their possessions.

On the other hand, UNC only turned it over on 9% of their possessions; a performance only surpassed 50 times in the last 1000 games. That's pretty remarkable given that 27 minutes were played with a true freshman at PG. UNC shot its average from 3, but was terrible from the FT line, and poor from inside the arc.

The game had 160 possessions, so it was a bit slower than the normal 169 possession game.

This UNC team, so far, is the most efficient scoring team we've had since the introduction of the 3-point line in 1985. Defensively, however, this team is almost a carbon copy of the previous two teams. There is no ball pressure, and teams are scoring 0.90 points per possession on us.

Until 2016 UNC had only allowed opponents to score more than 0.864 points per possession in the 2002 season. Since 2016, however, every team has allowed more. The last three have allowed 0.903, 0.900, and 0.905, however. At this point, this is UNC's second-worst defensive team that has ever taken the court.

We finally have a respite, so I'll have some time to put together some more impressions about this specific team.

Arbitrarily, this is the 1000th game that I have tracked. Hard to believe? No. 1996 was long time ago, dummy! Don't be silly!

UNC-UConn Postgame Notes

UCONN 87, CAROLINA 76
JIMMY V CLASSIC
MADISON SQUARE GARDEN, NEW YORK, N.Y.
DECEMBER 5, 2023

UNC Scoring Leader: RJ Davis 26
UNC Rebound Leader: Armando Bacot 13
UNC Assist Leader: Bacot, Elliot Cadeau and Harrison Ingram 5
Team Records: UNC 7-2, UConn 8-1

• Carolina drops to 7-2 overall and 2-2 at neutral sites this season.
• UNC is 1-2 in the Jimmy V Classic.
• UNC is 30-12 in the current Madison Square Garden and 44-26 all-time in New York City.
• RJ Davis scored a game-high 26 points. He is the fifth Tar Heel ever to score 26 or more points in four straight games and the first to do so in 53 years (Charlie Scott did it 12 straight games in 1970, Lennie Rosenbluth did it four games in a row and 10 straight games, Bobby Lewis did it seven consecutive games and Billy Cunningham had a five-game streak with 26 or more points).
• Davis is the first Tar Heel to lead the team in scoring in five straight games since Justin Jackson led in six consecutive in 2016-17.

• Garrison Brooks had been the last Tar Heel to score 25 or more in four consecutive games (in 2019-20).
• Davis is the first Tar Heel to score at least 20 in five straight games since Armando Bacot in 2022-23.
• Davis has scored 133 points in the last five games (23-30-27-27-26), most by a Tar Heel over five games since Tyler Hansbrough scored 146 in 2008 (39-23-23-32-29).
• Davis has made 41 field goals in the last five games, including eight against UConn.
• Davis was 6 for 6 from the free throw line and has made 33 in a row.

• Davis has made 312 of 362 free throws as a Tar Heel. His percentage of .862 is the highest by a Tar Heel and is tied for ninth in ACC history.
• Davis increased his career scoring total to 1,493 points. He passed Dennis Wuycik (1,469), Caleb Love (1,476), Kennedy Meeks (1,482) and 1993 Final Four MVP Donald Williams (1,492) to move into 33rd in UNC history. 2012 ACC Player of the Year Tyler Zeller is 32nd with 1,501.
• Harrison Ingram scored 20 points and had five assists. It was his third 20-point game as a Tar Heel and fifth of his career.

• Armando Bacot had 13 points, 13 rebounds and a season-high five assists.
• The double-double was Bacot’s third in a row, fifth of the season and 73rd of his career.
• It was Bacot’s third career game with five or more assists. He had seven as a freshman against Miami and five last season in the home win over Wake Forest.
• Carolina shot a season-low 59.1% from the free throw line, missing nine of 22 attempts.
• UConn out-rebounded the Tar Heels, 43-33. The margin was the largest by an opponent this season and first time UNC was out-rebounded by double figures since Virginia Tech beat the Tar Heels on the boards, 39-25, in Blacksburg on 12/4/2022.

• The Huskies had 25 assists on 34 field goals. The 25 assists were the most by an opponent since Baylor had 27 in Carolina’s NCAA Tournament second-round win in 2022.
• Carolina committed a season-low seven turnovers. It was the fourth time in nine games the Tar Heels made fewer than 10 turnovers.
• It was the first time the Tar Heels lost when committing as few as seven turnovers since they made seven in the loss at Duke last season.
• The Huskies scored 14 points off UNC’s seven turnovers; the Tar Heels scored seven points off eight UConn miscues.

• UNC had won the previous six times an opponent had more turnovers.
• Carolina scored season lows with six second-chance points, seven points off turnovers and four bench points and tied its previous low with six fastbreak points (in the other loss vs. Villanova).

UNC-UConn
• Carolina is 5-2 against the Huskies.

Next Game: December 16 vs. Kentucky, CBS Sports Classic, State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Ga., 5:30 p.m.
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