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Stat Review: Michigan (12/21/22)

STATVALUEPCTLEHISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%5066
UNC_statBox_65.png

3FG%3548
UNC_statBox_45.png

2FG%5877
UNC_statBox_75.png

FT%5610
UNC_statBox_10.png

fg%4248
UNC_statBox_45.png

3fg%3932
UNC_statBox_30.png

2fg%4460
UNC_statBox_60.png

ft%7141
UNC_statBox_40.png

PTS/POSS0.9965
UNC_statBox_65.png

pts/poss0.9231
UNC_statBox_30.png

TOTPOSS16438
UNC_statBox_35.png

POSDIF-228
UNC_statBox_25.png

%LOB1559
UNC_statBox_55.png

%lob1220
UNC_statBox_15.png

SmithIdx-0.028047
UNC_statBox_45.png

Interesting Stats
AST/FG0.4513
UNC_statBox_10.png

AST/POSS0.1625
UNC_statBox_20.png

%RMS0.2824
UNC_statBox_20.png

%FROM334.574
UNC_statBox_70.png


STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)

UNC-Pitt Postgame Notes

PITTSBURGH 76, UNC 74
FRIDAY, DEC. 30, 2022
PETERSEN EVENTS CENTER
PITTSBURGH, PA.

UNC Scoring Leader: Armando Bacot 22
UNC Rebound Leader: Bacot 13
UNC Assist Leader: Bacot, Leaky Black and RJ Davis 3
Team Records: UNC 9-5, 1-2 ACC; Pittsburgh 10-4, 3-0

• The loss snapped UNC’s four-game winning streak.
• UNC is 0-3 on the road this season, 0-2 in ACC road games.
• In the first half, UNC shot 51.6% from the floor and held Pitt to 41.9%. In the second half, UNC shot 33.3%, while the Panthers made 50% from the floor.
• Pitt guard Jamarius Burton, the only Panther who played today who also played in Pitt’s win last season in Chapel Hill, was 14 for 17 from the floor, and scored a game-high 31 points. He was 7 for 9 in the first half from the floor and 7 for 8 in the second.

• Burton is the first opponent to make 14 field goals since Syracuse’s Cole Swider went 14 for 21 in Chapel Hill last season.
• Carolina made 6 of 13 threes in the first half en route to a 40-34 lead, but made only 1 of 9 in the second.
• The Tar Heels made 50% from two-point range for the game (18 of 36).
• The Panthers out-scored UNC, 42-26, in the paint. It was the fourth straight UNC loss this season in which the opponent scored at least 40 points in the paint (40 by Alabama, 50 by Indiana, 42 by Virginia Tech and 42 by Pittsburgh).

• UNC fell to 7-2 this season when leading at the half (led Iowa State by two).
• UNC led Pitt by as many as nine points, which matches the largest lead by the Tar Heels in a loss this season (also in the Iowa State game).
• The Tar Heels led for 34:13, the most time they have led in a loss this season (previous was 25:19 vs. Iowa State).
• It was the fifth time an opponent has shot 50% from the floor in the second half this season and the third time in a UNC loss (also by Indiana and Virginia Tech).
• Armando Bacot led UNC outright in scoring (22) and rebounds (13) and shared team honors in assists (3) and blocks (2), the first time a Tar Heel has led in all four since Luke Maye vs. Tulane on 12/3/2017.

• It was Bacot’s 57th career double-double, his 64th career game with 10 or more rebounds, his 17th career game with at least 20 points and 10 rebounds and his 22nd career game with 20 or more points.
• Bacot has 1,147 rebounds, 22 from passing Sam Perkins for second all-time at Carolina.
• It was Bacot’s eighth double-double this season. Five of his 13 rebounds were offensive rebounds; it was the eighth time this season he had five or more offensive boards.
• Bacot was the only Tar Heel to make multiple field goals in the second half. He was 4 for 8 from the floor in the second; the rest of the Tar Heels were 5 for 19 as five different players made one field goal apiece in the half.

• Caleb Love was held to a season-low seven points (previous was nine vs. James Madison) and attempted a season-low nine field goals.
• RJ Davis scored 16 points and has 995 in his career. He is five points shy of becoming the 81st Tar Heel to score 1,000 points.
• Leaky Black had nine points, nine rebounds, three assists and three steals. He scored his 700th career point (has 707) and grabbed his 600th career rebound (has 602).
• Black was the only Tar Heel other than Bacot to get an offensive rebound (he had two).
• D’Marco Dunn played for the first time in six games (broken bone in his left hand) and scored five points in 19:44.
• Carolina entered the game averaging 26 free throw attempts per game. The Tar Heels attempted only two free throws in the first half before making 15 of 19 in the second half.
• Carolina finishes the calendar year 29-12.

Series vs. Pittsburgh
• The Panthers have won four of the last five.
• Carolina leads the series, 15-7, including 8-6 since Pitt joined the ACC.
• Carolina is 6-3 in Pittsburgh (3-3 in the Petersen Center).

Next Game: January 4 vs. Wake Forest in Chapel Hill (9 p.m., ACC Network)

Some reasons to be optimistic. Some to not be.

As we all know we started out the season rough.

However, was it really as bad as we thought?

We had some squeakers early. And tough losses early.

We lost to Alabama, Virginia Tech, Indiana, and Iowa State.

If we beat Alabama we probably view the start of the season a lot differently. Alabama is the 9th best team according to kenpom in the nation. We had 3 chances at the end of regulation and overtime to beat this team. Also, we had to have a slight collapse to get to that point too. This game probably speaks more in our favor than against us.

Our worst loss of these 4 was to Iowa State who comes in around 49th in Kenpom. This game we had won in the final 3 minutes and blew it. This was a game we gave away.

Our next worst loss is versus Virginia Tech who is 31 in kenpom. This loss was without Bacot who is arguably our most important player. And we were fighting in the end for the game.

Our most lopsided defeat was Indiana. Indiana is 19th in kenpom and was an ugly loss all around.


Of all the losses, the Indiana one was the one that we just got beat and nothing we can say about it. That's not bad after a dozen or more games.

Of our wins...

We beat UNCW who is 11-3 and 113th in kenpom, CoC who is 13-1 and 89th in kenpom convincingly. These are actually 2 very solid wins against tough mid majors.

We beat Gardner Webb 6-7 and 176th in kenpom, James Madison 10-4 and 81st in kenpom, Portland 8-8 and 143 in kenpom, but it was probably closer than we would have liked.

None of these teams are terrible, though midmajors will tend to trend down not upwards as their conference play starts. Our non conference slate is generally pretty strong. Kenpom has us at the 13th strongest non conference schedule. The only other teams in the top 20 higher than us in sos is Gonzaga at 5th and Alabama at 10th. The next highest team than us in this measure is at 184th in kenpom with Tarleton State at 9th. Thus, it stands to measure that a lot of these teams ahead of us would have lost a lot more if they played the schedule we did.

Thus, the early season despite losses really isn't that bad as it seems. We have only one game we really just were beat.

Now to the "turn around".

Georgia Tech, Citadel, Michigan, Ohio State.

Georgia Tech 7-5 117th KP small lineup
Citadel 6-7 263th KP
Ohio State 9-3 14th KP
Michigan 7-5 65th KP

This stretch is nowhere as good as people are acting. As not as bad as our losses have been, this stretch of wins isn't great either.

Georgia Tech and The Citadel are frankly just small teams that can't really compete with bigger lineups. To be fair though, we did handle both relatively easily.

The best win is the Ohio State win. However, the Ohio State win was a prayer shot to tie and take to overtime. This game was as lucky a win as the Alabama game was as unlucky of a loss. Arguably we should have lost this game and it's not really a game we should be pointing to for how great we are. We barely barely barely scraped by them.

Michigan was a decent win by metrics. This is also a Michigan team that just lost to 270th Central Michigan also.

There is reason to assume that these numbers don't suggest a turnaround, but a team that can compete on most nights against the 10-20 range of teams, but can also just have a clunker of a game too. The numbers suggest that there isn't a turnaround but just a consistency emerging from the games prior and after that state we are a 10-50 team that can hang around (win or lose) or lose outright to teams in this range, but cannot handedly beat teams in this range.

If there is going to be a turnaround, we still have yet to have it. Offensively, which most lament here, we are actually not doing bad. The 3 ball has been lacking from prior years, but honestly if it was dropping, we would be far and away the #1 team offensively. With it where it is now, we are 10th. Defensively we are 62nd. If we want to be an elite team, this has to come up into the 20ish range without a drop off offensively.

2 best teams we played all season are Alabama and Ohio State. Same result basically. OT and of game coinflips. Until we see better than this, we are not a top 10 team. But we can be.

Carolina vs Oregon game thread Wednesday 28 December 2022

Now that Elliott Cadeau a five star point guard has given UNC a verbal commitment for the big story of the day just moments ago it is time to concentrate on this bowl game from sunny San Diego.

Both teams have had a ton of transfers and many others opting out to get ready for the NFL draft so it is a toss up on who has enough talented players left over to play the game. Nix vs Maye will be the big battle of the evening and will probably be the difference in the contest…

Drake Powell

I had a chance to watch Powell this afternoon at the Wall tourney and was completely impressed. He went for 16 pts, 12 rebs and 3 assists against a scrappy, but completely outclasssed First Flight team. Powell was as advertised. He’s a bouncy, fluid athlete who played the 1-4 at various times. He seems to have a good stroke at the FT line and his handle was solid. But, the main thing that impressed me was his motor, attitude and body language. This was a game where he could have coasted (they won by 20 points), but he played very hard on both ends of the court the entire game. The Wall tourney feels somewhat like an AAU showcase event, but Powell played good, fundamental basketball for all 4 quarters. He was encouraging his teammates and he showed really good sportsmanship the entire time to First Flight.

I’ve become jaded watching so many 4 and 5 star kids on the AAU circuit that just act like they are too cool for school or they have piss poor attitudes. Needless to say, Powell was a breath of fresh air. Excited to see him play for our Heels!

From a reliable source…

Heard from someone closely associated with a current player that Coach Glover, Tony Grimes’s dad was/is talking to the parents of several current players about NIL deals. He was offering to serve as an agent/broker in getting them deals with other schools for a cut. This particular player and several others he knew of told Glover to F off.

Same person also told me that Glover’s taking credit for VA kids coming to UNC was way overblown. In fact, his “enthusiasm” may have been more a negative than a positive for some and a non event for others.

Also said that nobody misses Tony.
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