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Stat Review: UNC-W (11/7/22)

STATVALUEPCTLEHISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%4644
UNC_statBox_40.png

3FG%2010
UNC_statBox_10.png

2FG%5356
UNC_statBox_55.png

FT%7771
UNC_statBox_70.png

fg%2996
UNC_statBox_95.png

3fg%2579
UNC_statBox_75.png

2fg%3195
UNC_statBox_95.png

ft%7532
UNC_statBox_30.png

PTS/POSS0.9965
UNC_statBox_60.png

pts/poss0.7282
UNC_statBox_80.png

TOTPOSS1489
UNC_statBox_5.png

POSDIF-88
UNC_statBox_5.png

%LOB1374
UNC_statBox_70.png

%lob1433
UNC_statBox_30.png

SmithIdx0.167882
UNC_statBox_80.png

Interesting Stats
AST/TO0.449
UNC_statBox_5.png

ast/to0.2792
UNC_statBox_90.png

%FROM320.820
UNC_statBox_15.png

%from32880
UNC_statBox_80.png

%RMS0.2722
UNC_statBox_20.png


STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)
Discussion
Shaky start for the 2023 Heels, but Davis was able to insert a large rotation of players into the game. As to be expected in early season games, the Assists:Turnover ratio for both teams was extremely low. More interestingly, it was the 2nd lowest Assists/Possession tally and the lowest Assists/FG tally for UNC since the advent of the 3 point line (959 games). Don't worry, though. UNCW was awful, too, with the 3rd worst performance by an opponent that we've seen. UNC-W shot a miserable 29%, too, a feat only 34 opponents in the last 959 have been able to doubiously achieve.

UNC's offensive and defensive performance were better than expected, but the rebounding was the clear weakness of the game for the Tar Heels. UNC-W got 8 more possessions than the Heels, making it the 77th worst rebounding display we've had since the 3pt line.

Let's just enjoy that the roundball is bouncing, shake some rust off, and get this team tuned up for a tough December schedule.

UNC vs Charleston Prediction Thread, Friday, November 11, 2022, 7PM (ODDS UP)


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Quick stuff (UNCW game)....

...and ugh, meh, bleah (take yer pick).

I really don't have the enthusiasm for much detail, but there's gonna be no hand-wringing, etc..
It's the first game after all, and we won, but... the performance (from both players and staff) was far from ideal. Let's get to it:

- UNCW is no cream-puff, but we started the game with a brain-dead late-clock foul from Caleb, and that sorta set the listless tone.

- We spent too much of the game passive on D and in securing rebounds. The good news was when we got outta that candy-ass auto-switching and locked down in our 21.5 Man, we had some really good defensive possessions, including some clock violations and forced travels --- and honestly?... those possessions were probably the difference in a game with a too-close margin. As for rebounding, yeah, they were grabbing and gouging, but you hafta be strong and snatch the ball.

- Oh, and speaking of switching, in the first half it was apparent UNCW scouted us from last season, and (as I warned) weren't having that forced up/down switch for RJ. Expect that to become a norm, which is all the more reason to default to Carolina transition to trigger our offense.

- And speaking of transition, I generally HATED how passively we approached that jive triangle "press" (big air quotes on that word) they pulled out in the second half. Adjust our Secondary to the sideline/baseline or attack the seam, and it's layup/foul all night. The (too) few times we attacked it, good things happened. Otherwise, we let them dictate pace on DEFENSE, no less. Not good.

- Really disappointed in Caleb reverting to carelessness with the rock, and RJ getting caught in no-man's land more than once. C'mon guys... you're Juniors now. Good news is they pretty much cleaned that up in the second half, and both stepped up with big shots to keep UNCW at arm's length.

- As for personnel usage, welp, a mixed bag. Good news was a commitment to a longer rotation. Bad news came in the details. For one example, although Seth had some good moments, I do not want to see the particular lineup again anytime soon with he and Caleb and RJ together. Ball movement stopped and nobody seemed to know their role. If we want to go "small" it was much smoother with Dunn as the 3rd Guard.

- Finally, generally speaking, there was WAY yonder too much dribbling --- I mean, did we even have an Assist outside of transition? Ok, maybe I'm exaggerating, but it wasn't many. EDIT: Holy crap,... I just went back and looked -- 4 for the GAME??? That's not Carolina basketball.

Welp, as predictable as heat in the summer, once again, when we played Carolina basketball, things went well. When we didn't, things looked like hell. Tonight saw too much of the latter. But again, the good news was we won and there's another game in a few days. Oh, and in other good news, our boy Andrew Platek had 13 with a couple of treys to help Siena to an opener W --- glad to see him back on the court after last season's injury. And glad to see basketball back in the Dome! Hopefully next game will be a bit more fun to watch, and a bit more like what our guys and staff are capable of.... :cool:

Looking ahead to next year *Positive thread alert*

Looking ahead to next year, we could end up being very good. Let me lay out how. I think we return most everyone on defense and maybe add a piece or two Via portal. It would be virtually impossible for us to get worse at this point. So can we step up to just below average?

Regarding offense, isn’t there a chance we can retain a lot of the Oline plus we have Rice. Another year with Bicknell. Drake is back with a load of skill guys plus we probably take an elite WR portal guy if he’s there. TE will be fine. RB as well.

As good as Drake/offense has been, we’ve left a ton on the board. I can envision the offense taking a significant step and becoming closer to the 2015/2020(late ‘20) offense where we stepped on teams early and broke their will. Offense is king in college football and we will have the best player in the country.

Ben Simmons

Watching the NY/ Nets game. As much criticism Simmons get….one thing that I like about him is that he rarely dribble the ball past half court….dude most of the time will pass the ball ahead….got to love that about him. To pass the ball ahead you have to be unselfish and you have to trust your teammates to make plays…..something our starting PG should watch and learn!!!!!!

UNC vs Charleston Prediction Thread, Friday, November 11, 2022, 7PM (ODDS UP)

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