I haven't been following the conference realignments that closely so please straighten me out if I have this wrong.

As I understand it, we are adding Stanford, Cal and SMU, while still retaining FSU for a few more minutes. Is that right? My googling skills suck but that's what an article from last fall seemed to be saying.

Does that make the ACC better? Worse? More interesting? Less interesting?

Here's the list, in order of today's Pomeroy rankings:

I acquired all of the Division I team data since 2002, and from that we can observe some fascinating trends and data relationships in the data. This is a multipart series exploring some of that data.

In the last 23 years the NCAA has invited 65-68 teams to its tournament. While many teams earned an automatic bid by winning their conference championship, others were invited to participate, nevertheless. If we look at those 351 teams, we begin to see a profile for what the NCAA typically includes.

Multiple regression analyses are designed to estimate a variable with an infinite range. When estimating a Boolean (True/False), there is a different formula, and the result is always a probability number ranging between 0.0 and 1.0.

If we look at the 351 teams' Points Per Possession (Smith Method) and Rebounding Differential, we can create a formula from which we can calculate a probability estimate of making the tournament based on the typical NCAA tournament team's profile. Plugging in the current teams' values gives us a better feel for the likelihood of these teams' inclusion in March Madness.

Following this post is the table of 351 teams this season, based on play thru the end of 2/22/24. Don't go to Vegas with the numbers in the table that follows, however the order of teams is pretty interesting, especially when you consider the conferences involved. Of course the top teams in the country should be closer to 1.0 and probably 200 teams should have a probability score of 0.0, but the order here is what is interesting. Also of note, the 68th-team cutoff is currently at 0.400, so pretty much teams above 0.400 are likely to make the tournament (with the exception of 2nd place teams in minor conferences, NET weights on good wins/bad losses, etc).

When the conference tournaments start, it will be especially interesting to watch these tournaments:

• America East: UMass (Lowell)/Vt.
• ASUN: Lipscomb/Stetson/E.KY - these are all dogs
• A10: Dayton/Richmond/
• Big Sky: Weber St./E. Washington
• Big South: High Points/Winthrop
• Big West: UC Irvine's to lose
• CAA: UNCW/Hofstra/Drexel
• ConfUSA: La. Tech/Liberty
• Horizon: Purdue(Ft.Wayne)/Youngstown St.
• Ivy: Princeton/Cornell
• Metro Atlantic: Marist/Quinnipiac/Fairfield - all dogs
• Mid-American: Akron's to lose (maybe Ohio?)
• Mid-Eastern: Norfolk St./NCCentral
• Missouri Valley: Indiana St/Drake/
• Mountain West: NM/Col St/NV/UT St/SDSU/Boise St. - all in the top 66
• Northeast: Cen Conn St./Merrimack - all dogs
• Ohio Valley: Morehead St's to lose
• Patriot: Colgate's to lose
• Southern: Samford's to lose, though UTChatt, W. Carolina, UNC-G all decent
• Southland: McNeese's to lose
• Southwestern: Southern U's to lose - a total dog
• Summit: S Dakota St/N Dakota/N Dakota St. - all dogs
• Sun Belt: JMU/App St/ Troy - very interesting trio
• WAC: Grand Canyon's to lose
• West Coast: Gonzaga/St. Mary's/San Francisco

Next up: Possession Differential (Rebounding)

First Miami gets humiliated at UVa scoring 38 points and we go to South Beach. Now the Hoos only get 41 in a 30 point loss to Va Tech. Can't we get a game against a team that is due for a let down for a change? ACC is crazy this year and JPJ Arena has been brutal for the Heels. UUGGHHHH!

I acquired all of the Division I team data since 2002, and from that we can observe some fascinating trends and data relationships in the data. This is a multipart series exploring some of that data.



The graph shows the Assists Per Made Field Goal(A/FG), by year, for the last 23 seasons, through the morning of February 23, 2024. The grey line shows the A/FG for all of Division I, while the green line shows the A/FG for teams that made the NCAA tournament that year. Over time there has been a steady, but light decline in A/FG, about 8%.

As with many other stats, the performance difference between tournament teams and the national average has remained steady, but only about 3% higher for tournament teams.

UNC, shown in blue, has had significantly higher A/FG than even the tournament teams in most years, but recently has fallen back to average levels.

How important is this statistic? Contrary to my previous thoughts, it is not an important stat at all. In fact A/FG has a very poor correlation factor with both Winning Percentage (0.235) and Tournament Wins (0.043). The current UNC team has one of the lowest A/FG rates its had in the modern era, but when we look at it with Points Per Possession with all of the NCAA Tournament teams in the last 23 seasons, we see that UNC (red dot) this season isn't as much of an outlier as I had previously touted. Ahh...the insatiable quest for knowledge!



Next up: Tournament Selection Prediction

Dana Dingle of the New York Lightning. He had plenty to say when I asked him about his former star point guard.

"I don't know if most people didn't believe, but the best thing about him, his best attribute to me is his ability to affect winning. He's won on every level. Every team he's ever been on has been a winner. They win. You can say he's not scoring. He's not shooting well enough, but the boy knows how to win. He makes the right plays: passes, defense, steals, charges, diving on the floor. He's just a winner. Looking at Carolina last year and this year you could say the guys are older, and more mature. Any basketball person knows he is they guy who has come in and made the game easier for the other guys, and more effective.

R.J. (Davis) is considered to be playing as good as any guard in the country if not the best. If you want to say that's not in relation of having Elliot on the team I would say those people are misunderstanding his value. He had other guys doing that last year, but not at the same impact. You are getting it, and it is easier to get your shot off without extending as much effort, having to take all of these dribbles, create all of this stuff just to get an easy bucket. That's what he does, and that's his elite skill set. He makes it easier to win."

This reminds me very much of the time Coach K tried to get me fired from FOX Sports because I reported the truth about when he screamed Fbombs at UVA fans after losing there in 2013. I've told the story on one of the zooms we've done with you guys. Will gladly tell it again next time. Wild story.

Anyway...


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