Stat Dive (part 17): Percentage Loss of Ball Forced
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I acquired all of the Division I team data since 2002, and from that we can observe some fascinating trends and data relationships in the data. This is a multipart series exploring some of that data.
Now we'll move onto other facets of Defense, and start with Percentage Loss of Ball Forced(%lob). The number is computed by dividing the number of possessions by an opponent by the number of the opponent's turnovers. This analysis uses the "Smith Method" of defining a possession which is defined as ending whenever a team loses control of the ball. A possession can end with a made basket, a trip to the free throw line (1-and-1, 2, and 3-shot situations), a turnover, or an attempted field goal. It is important to remember the latter when gaining an understanding of this data compared to data published elsewhere. Stay tuned for much more on the topic of Possessions when I address the Ken Pomeroy data.
The graph shows the Percentage Loss of Ball, by year, for the last 23 seasons. The grey line shows the Percentage Loss of Ball for all of Division I, while the green line shows the %lob for teams that made the NCAA tournament that year. Over time there has been a noticeable decline in %lob by opponents, like we saw with the offensive side of things.
What has not changed is the tight difference between tournament teams and the national average.
UNC, shown in blue, followed the national and tournament averages up through its most recent National Championship, but has fallen below those benchmarks since. The Hubert Davis/RJ Davis era so far has seen an extreme decline in Loss of Ball Forced.
Percent Loss of Ball Forced has a correlation factor with Winning Percentage of +0.186, which shows that it is a very worthless stat, unlike its offensive counterpart, interestingly.
Next up: Percentage Loss of Ball Forced vs. Points Per Possession Allowed
Now we'll move onto other facets of Defense, and start with Percentage Loss of Ball Forced(%lob). The number is computed by dividing the number of possessions by an opponent by the number of the opponent's turnovers. This analysis uses the "Smith Method" of defining a possession which is defined as ending whenever a team loses control of the ball. A possession can end with a made basket, a trip to the free throw line (1-and-1, 2, and 3-shot situations), a turnover, or an attempted field goal. It is important to remember the latter when gaining an understanding of this data compared to data published elsewhere. Stay tuned for much more on the topic of Possessions when I address the Ken Pomeroy data.
The graph shows the Percentage Loss of Ball, by year, for the last 23 seasons. The grey line shows the Percentage Loss of Ball for all of Division I, while the green line shows the %lob for teams that made the NCAA tournament that year. Over time there has been a noticeable decline in %lob by opponents, like we saw with the offensive side of things.
What has not changed is the tight difference between tournament teams and the national average.
UNC, shown in blue, followed the national and tournament averages up through its most recent National Championship, but has fallen below those benchmarks since. The Hubert Davis/RJ Davis era so far has seen an extreme decline in Loss of Ball Forced.
Percent Loss of Ball Forced has a correlation factor with Winning Percentage of +0.186, which shows that it is a very worthless stat, unlike its offensive counterpart, interestingly.
Next up: Percentage Loss of Ball Forced vs. Points Per Possession Allowed
