The last three weeks have been like a roller coaster ride at the beach. Some wonderful highs as well as some Terrible Tuesday lows. Today is a new opportunity to start a new winning streak against a 11th place team in the conference who comes in with a 14-10 and needs a signature win to have any chance of dancing in March.

Sean Pedulla and Hunter Cattoor are still around and both can fill up the basket. Carolina transfer and the all time Virginia high school scorer Tyler Nickel never given a real chance to show his ability at the Dean Dome is having a decent season for the Hokies as well as we all know he has had this game circled for a long time.

Carolina’s starting guards can not allowed Va Tech’s starting guards to toast them to the tune of 48 points like the Cuses guards did earlier in the week or this might be another embarrassing loss at home.

The Tar Heels need to use their front court to control this game and even if Bacot might be nursing an injury he an Ingram must get some EASY baskets. Ingram for some reason has been settling for a bunch of threes instead of using his bulk to post up in the paint more often. Many people wanted to blame Ryan as the single reason the team fell at Syracuse but that is dam wrong. He had some tough turnovers late but he was the second leading scorer which included 4 three pointers which kept Carolina in the game. Also and probably the most important stat was he on defense was not part of the starting guards that got burnt for 48 points.

The team shot 15 less free throws more than the Tar Heels
did which pretty much tells you Carolina relied on the jump shots way too much. On the other hand Cuse starting guard Mintz should have paid rent for the time he spent at the charity stripe after zooming by the weak Carolina guard defense and getting fouled by the last line of defense.

Finally Trimble, Withers, High, Washington and Wojcik need to help the teams efforts and will to win by contributing some offensively and defensively..

Davis and Cadeau cannot wait to the second half to decide to contribute offensively.

With Duke, Virginia and Miami close behind in the standings it is show up or shut up time…

CAROLINA 96, VIRGINIA TECH 81
FEBRUARY 17, 2024
ROY WILLIAMS COURT AT THE DEAN E. SMITH CENTER
CHAPEL HILL, N.C.

UNC Scoring Leader: Armando Bacot 25
UNC Rebound Leader: Harrison Ingram 17
UNC Assist Leader: RJ Davis 5
Team Records: Carolina 20-6, 12-3 ACC; Virginia Tech 14-11, 6-8 ACC

• UNC’s 20th win marks its 64th season with at least 20 wins. It is UNC’s third consecutive season with 20 or more wins under head coach Hubert Davis.
• UNC scored 90 or more points for the seventh time this season and the 20th time under Hubert Davis. Carolina is 7-0 this season and 19-1 under Davis when scoring 90 or more points.
• UNC shot 51.5% from the floor, fifth time this season it shot 50% or better. UNC has won 28 consecutive games when shooting 50% or higher.
• Carolina shot 56.7% from the floor in the second half, its best in a second half since shooting 61.3% vs. Wake Forest on January 22. Carolina is 7-1 this season (loss to Kentucky) when it shoots 50% or better in the second half.
• UNC scored 80 or more points for the 14th time this season and the first time since defeating Duke, 93-84. Carolina is 12-2 when scoring 80 or more points this season.

• Carolina scored 50 points in the first half. UNC is 9-1 when scoring at least 40 points in the first half.
• It was the second time the Tar Heels scored at least 50 points in the first half in an ACC game this season (52 against Syracuse) and the fourth time overall. UNC is 4-0 when scoring 50 or more points in the first half.
• UNC led by 11 at the half, its largest halftime lead since leading Louisville by 17 on January 17.
• Carolina outrebounded its opponent (43-31) for the 15th consecutive game. The 12-rebound margin (43-31) marked the 10th time the Tar Heels have outrebounded their opponent by 10 or more. UNC is 10-0 this season when outrebounding its opponent by at least 10.
• UNC scored 54 points in the paint, its second-highest total of the season and most since it scored 58 in a 36-point win over Syracuse on January 13.

• Carolina had an 11-0 run (6-0 to end the first half and 5-0 to begin the second). It was the 17th time this season UNC had at least one 10-0 run in a game (UNC is 14-3 in those games).
• Carolina held Virginia Tech to 41.8% from the floor and 26.9% from three. It was the ninth time in 15 ACC games UNC held an opponent under 30% from three (UNC is 9-0 in those games).
• Armando Bacot scored a game-high 25 points and grabbed 12 rebounds (four offensive). It was Bacot’s 81st career double-double, passing Malik Rose of Drexel for the seventh-most double-doubles in NCAA history. It was his fifth straight double-double and 13th of the season (UNC 10-3 this season and 58-23 over the last five seasons when he has a double-double).
• This was the third time this season and seventh career game (UNC 7-0) with at least 25 points and 10 rebounds.
• Bacot has 1,603 rebounds. He passed NC State’s Ronnie Shavlik (1,598) for second place on the ACC’s all-time rebounding list.

• Bacot passed Marvin Barnes (Providence) and Shavlik for 15th in NCAA history in rebounds.
• UNC improved to 6-1 this season and 27-6 in his career when Bacot scores 20 or more points.
• Bacot has 2,188 points. He passed Wake Forest’s Len Chappell (2,165) and Maryland’s Greivis Vasquez (2,171) for 20th ACC all-time scoring.
• Bacot made a season-high 11 field goals, the most since he made 11 against Michigan last season.
• Bacot’s 16 field goal attempts tied his season high and were the most since the season opener vs. Radford.

• Bacot led UNC in scoring for the eighth time this season and the 43rd time in his career. UNC is 7-1 this season when Bacot leads in scoring and 30-13 overall.
• Harrison scored 12 points and had 17 rebounds (five offensive). It was his ninth double-double of the season and his third in the last five games. UNC is 8-1 when Ingram has a double-double. He had 11 points and 12 rebounds in the first half.
• This was the fourth time this season and fourth time in ACC play Ingram had 15 or more rebounds.
• It was the 12th time Ingram led UNC in rebounds (Bacot also has led 12 times this season).
• Ingram scored his 1,000 career point in the first half. He scored 682 in two seasons at Stanford and has 326 in 26 games as a Tar Heel.

• RJ Davis scored 20 points, hit three 3FGs and led UNC with five assists. It was the 17th time this season Davis scored 20 or more points.
• Davis extended his UNC record for games with multiple three-pointers to 23.
• Davis has 1,858 points. He passed current UNC assistant coach Marcus Paige (1,844) for 12th in scoring at UNC.
• Davis had five assists for the fourth time in the last five games. He has at least five assists in eight games this season and 30 times as a Tar Heel.
• Carolina is 7-1 this season and 26-5 over the last four seasons when Davis has five or more assists.

• Davis has 397 career assists. He passed George Karl (394) for 19th in UNC history.
• Cormac Ryan scored 16 points, his second straight game and 14th this season in double figures.
• Ryan made four 3FGs for the second game in a row and fourth time this season (Kentucky, Louisville, at Syracuse and Virginia Tech).
• This was third straight game and the sixth time in the last seven games Ryan has made multiple threes. He has made 18 threes in the last seven games.
• Elliot Cadeau was a plus 20 in the first half and finished the game plus 19, which equaled his second best +/- this season. He was plus 27 in the win over Syracuse.
• Seth Trimble had a season-high four assists, which was one off his career high.

UNC-Virginia Tech
•UNC is 73-17 all-time against Virginia Tech, including 34-6 in Chapel Hill (9-1 in the Smith Center) and 20-7 since the Hokies joined the ACC.
• The Tar Heels are 22-3 against Virginia Tech when ranked in the AP Top 10.
• Tyler Nickel became the first individual to play against UNC after playing for the Tar Heels since Larry Davis. Davis played for UNC from 1992-94 before he transferred to South Carolina. Davis played against UNC in Charlotte in December 1996.

Next Game: Saturday, February 24 at Virginia

EC is nothing like Ty Lawson as a freshman…He can’t shoot the basketball…

-11.5 UNC
Over/Under 152.5


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Virginia Tech Hokies​

14-10, 6-7 CONF

ACCN
2/17
2:00 PM

7

North Carolina Tar Heels​

19-6, 11-3 CONF




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NORTH-CAROLINA Odds: Schedule, Matchups, & Stats - VegasInsider​

Get the latest North Carolina Odds, see their recent and upcoming schedule, matchups, injuries, stats, and team news.
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I acquired all of the Division I team data since 2002, and from that we can observe some fascinating trends and data relationships in the data. This is a multipart series exploring some of that data.

Let's dive into Field Goal Percentage. In the last part of the series I highlighted overall shooting percentages across the last 23 seasons (235,221 games). That's a large statistic, and if we parse out its parts, we can learn more about what is really going on.

3-Point Field Goals​

The graph shows the national average in grey, the average for NCAA Tournament teams in green, and UNC's average in blue.

From this we see that national 3-point field goal percentage (3FG%) has essentially hovered in the 34% range for the past 23 seasons. In that period there were 2 big rule changes which pushed the line back: 1 foot beginning with the 2009 season, and 4 inches in 2020. After each of these rule changes we saw a dip of 1-2 percentage points, but there was a quick recovery afterward.

When we look at tournament teams, we see a much more erratic pattern, not following the national average very closely at all up to 2015. While we need more data, it appears that tournament teams have settled in, however, and are shooting roughly .75 to 1.5 percentage points higher than the national average.

UNC's 3FG% history has been erratic, and a cursory glance shows a distinct correlation between high shooting percentages and future NBA guards on the rosters. The current team appears to be exceeding the anticipated tournament level by about 0.5 percentage points, certainly a good sign for this team.

Percent Taken from 3​

One important aspect of shooting is how many shots are being taken from this range. From the graph we see that teams were opting much more for 3-pointers annually until the 2019 rule change. Tournament teams used to not be enamored of the shot, but in the mid '10s analytics started showing coaches that they were getting more points per possession on possessions ending with a 3 point attempt than they were inside the arc, so we saw a big strategy change by the field's more savvy coaches.

Roy Williams inherited his big-man-first philosophy from Dean Smith, and as he saw success from great guard play in the Paige/Berry era, his teams opted more from 3 than before. Hubert Davis truly embraced the theory, and his teams have been almost exactly on pace with the rest of the nation in his three seasons as coach.

2-Point Field Goal Percentage​

Looking at 2-point Field Goal Percentage (2FG%) tells us more about the effectiveness of the big men and penetration. From this graph we see a distinct rise over time of percentage. Perhaps more teams are taking 3s, pulling guards out of defensive positions in the lane. Perhaps the game is being officiated differently. Nevertheless, we also see a distinct echo by tournament teams of the national average, positioned about 2 percentage points higher.

UNC's performance here is strongly associated with its history of strong big men, though few have made it to play many NBA games. This team, at 50%, is a percentage point below the national average, and probably 3 percentage points below the anticipated tournament team level. This explains why UNC's overall FG% is only at the national average and not at the tournament team average. Despite it's weak link in this area, UNC is still will within 1 standard deviation (3.3%) of both national and tournament benchmarks.

Next up: Effective Field Goal Percentage

https://sports.yahoo.com/vince-carter-chauncey-billups-headline-032714111.html

Let's Go Tar Heels!

I acquired all of the Division I team data since 2002, and from that we can observe some fascinating trends and data relationships in the data. This is a multipart series exploring some of that data.



Today's topic is Field Goal Percentage. The graph shows the national average in grey, the NCAA Tournament team averages in green, and UNC's averages in blue. From this we see that national field goal percentage has stayed very flat for the past 23 seasons, increasing at only 3 hundredths of a percentage point annually, on average.

What is most interesting is how closely the tournament teams mimic the national average trends, but a stay consistently at a little over two percentage points higher than the national average.

There have been three significant rule changes in this period that one might expect to impact field goal shooting. Two of those changes increased the 3-point line distance and one changed the shot clock allowance. The 3 point line was moved outward 1 foot beginning with the 2009 season, and then outward 4 additional inches in 2020. In 2016 the shot clock was reduced by 14%, which had a significant increase in tempo as we saw in Part 2. Despite those major rule changes, we didn't see any significant impact on Field Goal Percentage.

UNC's field goal history has been erratic, and a cursory glance shows a distinct correlation between high shooting percentages and team success. This comes as no surprise as Field Goal Percentage is the leading statistic in explaining Margin of Victory in my studies. Given the high points per possession the current team is averaging, it is surprising, though, that the current team 's 44.9% average is only on pace with the national average (44.6%), clearly below the anticipated tournament team performance level (~47.0%). Is this an ominous sign for this team's fate?

We'll dig into shooting percentages a little more this weekend.

Next up: 3-point Field Goal Percentage

I'm curious to see what you value more, if you had to choose one or the other.