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Wake Forest at North Carolina game thread—-Monday 22 January 2024

IDUNK4HEELS
Nobody likes a quick turnaround but both teams played on Saturday so it is anybody’s guess who will be feeling the best…

Wake in the ACC comes into the contest 5-2 and they are tied for second and they just got back one of their better players Damari Monsanto.

The Demon Deacons presently have 5 players who score in double digits and as a team they shoot 39 per cent from downtown. Hunter Sallis leads the team in scoring and he is surrounded by a bunch of shooters and bigs.

Both teams are averaging 80 points plus a contest but I do not think that this will be a shootout because these are two tough Tobacco Road teams that come in with pride and lots of talent..

I feel and think the loud home crowd will help the Tar Heels pull out a close one like 80-75…
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Stat Review: Louisville (1/17/24)

JimmyNaismith
STATVALUEPCTLEHISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%48 58
UNC_statBox_55.png

3FG%45 79
UNC_statBox_75.png

2FG%50 45
UNC_statBox_40.png

FT%75 66
UNC_statBox_65.png

fg%49 14
UNC_statBox_10.png

3fg%44 17
UNC_statBox_15.png

2fg%51 28
UNC_statBox_25.png

ft%46 94
UNC_statBox_90.png

PTS/POSS1.06 83
UNC_statBox_80.png

pts/poss0.92 30
UNC_statBox_25.png

TOTPOSS157 23
UNC_statBox_20.png

POSDIF5 67
UNC_statBox_65.png

%LOB12 77
UNC_statBox_75.png

%lob17 57
UNC_statBox_55.png

SmithIdx0.040761
UNC_statBox_60.png

Interesting Stats
ast/poss0.13 69
UNC_statBox_65.png

AST/FG0.66 72
UNC_statBox_70.png

OR%0.39 67
UNC_statBox_65.png

or%0.21 66
UNC_statBox_65.png

%FROM336.780
UNC_statBox_75.png


STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
OR% = UNC Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.344)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
or% = Opponent Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.241)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)
Discussion
UNC faced another dreadful opponent in Louisville Wednesday night, and came away with a nice 16-point win.

The biggest positive about the team was the offensive play. UNC scored well with 1.06 pts/pos and good outside shooting. Most notable was the prolific number of assists; 0.66 assists per field goal made. It marks the 3rd time the team has been above 0.60, and brings the season average up to 0.50. This is a very, very positive sign for the road ahead.

What wasn't so hot was the defense, allowing 0.92 pts/poss. Louisville showed up tonight, and didn't look like a team ranked just better than #200. UNC's defense forced 17% loss of ball, which is a little above the program's 29-year average.

Louisville played well on offense. The 1/17 version of Louisville on Wednesday night would have beaten the NCSU, Syracuse, or Clemson teams that UNC faced.

UNC's defense has gotten much praise this month, but was probably more the effect of some poorly-shooting opponents. UNC wasn't any more lockdown against Louisville than it was against NCSU, Syracuse, or Clemson. Those teams were just terrible on those nights. NCSU, actually, is 5/46 (11%) from 3 on midweek nights this month. Is that because Notre Dame and Wake Forest also imposed their will on the Pack? Probably not.

This was likely a biscuit game, and with UNC scoring 1.06 pts/possession, that likelihood was extremely high. What prevented the good biscuit deal was the very slow tempo of this game. There were 157 total possessions, making it the 2nd-slowest game of the season thus far.

This was a game that UNC won in the 1st quarter. That Louisville cut the lead to 5 is probably good for getting this team's attention. Their response to it was certainly reassuring moving forward.
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UNC vs Wake Forest Prediction Thread, Monday, January 22, 7PM (Triple Pts) ODDS UP!

Steat
ODDS
-9.5 UNC
Over/Under 155.5

Adjusted odds


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Wake Forest Demon Deacons​

13-5, 5-2 CONF
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
ESPN
1/22
7:00 PM

4

North Carolina Tar Heels​

15-3, 7-0 CONF
North Carolina Tar Heels


Every effort will be made to make sure that the ODDS are posted approximately 24 hours before the game based from the Vegas links. Vegas does not normally issue the odds until approximately 24-28 hours before the game. The odds posted in the thread will normally be slightly different from the odds listed in the Vegas links. Your selection must be posted before the game starts. If you want to change your pick, please issue a revision to your original pick.


NCAA College Basketball Odds, Betting Lines & Point Spreads


NORTH-CAROLINA Odds: Schedule, Matchups, & Stats - VegasInsider​

Get the latest North Carolina Odds, see their recent and upcoming schedule, matchups, injuries, stats, and team news.
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