...and rolly-polly got hisself out-coached (more on that below)...
Arright... some mofo snuck into the Dome and put a lid on on our basket, but once we opened the seal it wasn't long before game over. But here's the thing --- I could see that coming because we were out-scheming them and playing as good a brand o' D as we've seen, even when our shots weren't falling.
- Let's start there: I hate Forbes' dribble-drive-iso ball, but it can be tedious to defend with their fire-power and FT prowess --- you MUST play full-possessions with your FEET and not bail them out with reaches! To our guys' credit, we didn't give in or let up. Other than being able to pick on RJ early with Sallis' size advantage, NOTHING came easy for them. While we were missing good looks, Wake struggled to even GET looks.
- Again, great team defensive effort and we really cleaned up our rotations from Saturday. Individually, Mando has become SO damn good defensively in his old age, and EC flat did a number on his PG counterparts all night.
- We finally broke it open with defense and TEMPO. In that 2nd half ass-kicking when we hung 52 on em, 26 of those came in transition (!)... I also liked that we made an effort to play up-tempo in the second even when EC was out, which previously hasn't been the case. In general though, some of those second-half Secondaries were sick .
- Controlled the boards vs a long team.
- Credit to the zebras for not biting on Wake's constant attempts to beg fouls by initiating contact on their shots. Other than two AWFUL calls (one on Cadeau and one on RJ) that gave Wake unearned FTs, the crew was solid.
- a VERY deceptive stat shows us with only 8 Assists, but (other than EC once again getting shorted by at least 2) the reason was the coaching thing I started with. I mentioned yesterday that we put in a play or two for each opponent that we've scouted and then hammer it. Tonight it was the high angled flair-screen into a 2-man game from the top. As you saw, Wake does NOT defend that worth a crap and Forbes didn't adjust as EC and RJ consistently got down-hill and our "little guys" were making layups. By my count we ran that action 16 times and got a bucket or FTs from it 11 (and could've been more with some finishes). Plus, RJ just ate em up on the mid-range floater that was there whenever he wanted it on the way to his career high.
- the other sweet coaching adjustment was getting the rock to Ingram for the RIGHT isos --- whenever he had redhead-boy on him it was taking candy from a baby --- while not forcing vs a taller defender.
- Finally, i love how this team never seems to let bad stretches get them into hang-dogging or forcing shots (like um, last season). These guys seems to realize that if we keep doing what we've been practicing, success will come.
Anyway, got past another Cormac ankle scare and stepped up to blow out a definite NCAA team. Now let's get rested and ready to rock again Saturday!...
*Can't sleep? *Sore shoulder? *Other aches and pains? Rogue may have what can help you.
* It's a husband/wife outfit, as @OMGanja and his wife are craft cannabis farmers, who specialize in a small batch, sustainable, plant-based holistic medicine, small business.
STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.
FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)
MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
OR% = UNC Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.344)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
or% = Opponent Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.241)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)
Discussion
UNC welcomed an up-and-coming WFU team on Monday night and walked away the clear winner. It was a game of two halves, with UNC entering the locker room down 1 at half, but blistering the Deacs in the second half.
Because of the dichotomy of the halves, the overall game numbers mean a bit less. Nevertheless the Heels scored an impressive 1.06 points per possession while keeping Wake at 0.83[/b] overall.
Offensively UNC shot a respectable 33% from behind the arc, but was an excellent 59% inside the arc. UNC took care of the ball, too, turning it over on only 10% of their possessions.
Defensively UNC is getting much praise, and much of it is warranted. Wake Forest, however, stands as another team that shot just awfully from behind the arc. This time the opponent was 15%, a performance only more pitiful by 48 of UNC's last 1009 opponents. The staggering Wake Forest stat, however, was their assists per possession, which is the 3rd worst performance by an opponent in the last 28 years.
Was UNC the reason for Wake Forest's poor offensive night? Consider that Wake Forest only turned the ball over on 8% of their possessions. For the night it was the 33rd cleanest performance by a team in the last 1009 games. Wake Forest shot a very average 46% from inside the arc, though. Hmmmm. So I'm supposed to believe that UNC went out and frustrated Wake Forest only in shooting behind the arc? Offensive frustration by a hawking defense can only affect a team's 3-point shooting ... in 4 of our last 6 games? How does that work?
Let's dig into some of the numbers behind each half:
In the first half, UNC allowed WFU to score 0.09 pts per possession more than the defensive goal, while in the second half they kept WFU 0.18 below that goal. That's a large halftime shift from poor defense to great defense...or was it? UNC forced Wake to turn it over on just under 5% of their possessions in the second half. In the last 1009 games we've only had TWO opponents that played that cleanly for an entire game, just so you know how unusually low 5% is.
Qualitatively the game took a significant turn about 5 minutes into the second half. RJ Davis had just hit two 3s, the tempo of the game took a significant uptick, and Wake Forest's demeanor completely changed. To me Wake Forest simply quit at that point. In the second half Wake did not have a single assist, went 0-9 from 3, and only got 13 rebounds to UNC's 25. Yes, Wake's points per possession collapsed in the second half. However this was a collapse of effort. In the face of RJ's heat checks, Wake Forest turned into Syracuse and just wanted to get out of there.
Offensively UNC scored 0.26 points per possession more than the goal in the second half. Defense wasn't bad. Don't get me wrong. However Wake really wilted in the face of dominant offense more than it did to suffocating defense.
When RJ Davis is hitting, UNC is a very, very tough team to beat. That he wasn't on the preseason All-ACC teams is a giant black eye on the ACC media. This guy is 1st Team All-America, and will have his jersey hanging in the rafters, more than likely. It will be interesting to see upcoming foes try to stymie him. It is imperative that Cormac Ryan settles in and releases that pressure from RJ.
UNC's Assist/FGM tally was only 0.25 in this game. We've only seen 10 me-ball games in the last 1009 games. This point is skewed a bit, however, because Wake repeatedly gave UNC lanes to the basket, and UNC rightfully took those lanes.
Wake Forest has some good pieces and has little experience with these pieces, considering the recent roster improvements. They will likely be an NCAA-quality team come Selection Sunday, but at this point, they have a lot of work to do to get to that point.