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New Mindset Change in the Portal Era

Seems this group, unlike some others, are making the change in attitude to the transfers occurring through the portal. Instead of despair and disappointment, I merely wish those leaving searching for more playing time elsewhere the best, as long as they don't go to our rival schools, dook or peckertown. Not upset , merely disappointed in a few that I felt in time, would develop and give us quality playing time, but no longer the case, if guys can get on the field now, not later. And while we have around 10 or so at this point, I think Ohio State has over a dozen , Alabama 10 or so, so it's just a change in the system, akin to a rule change, like a fair catch on the kickoff and get the ball on the 25, instead of the 20. I certainly felt we got upgrades with Huzzie, Tez , and some others, and we still are a good place to spend a year or so playing football. I look forward to more info on returning players and coaches and new recruits, and also some new faces to help us.

Stat Review: @Pitt (1/2/24)

STATVALUEPCTLEHISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%37 8
UNC_statBox_5.png

3FG%29 31
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2FG%39 9
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FT%86 92
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fg%31 94
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3fg%17 93
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2fg%41 71
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ft%67 55
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PTS/POSS0.84 25
UNC_statBox_20.png

pts/poss0.70 87
UNC_statBox_85.png

TOTPOSS165 41
UNC_statBox_40.png

POSDIF1 44
UNC_statBox_40.png

%LOB11 85
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%lob10 10
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SmithIdx0.048363
UNC_statBox_60.png

Interesting Stats
ast/poss0.07 95
UNC_statBox_95.png

AST/POSS0.14 18
UNC_statBox_15.png

OR%0.40 72
UNC_statBox_70.png

or%0.30 27
UNC_statBox_25.png

%FROM327.042
UNC_statBox_40.png


STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
OR% = UNC Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.344)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
or% = Opponent Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.241)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)
Discussion
The past few years, Pitt has been an Achilles Heel for UNC, and despite playing very poorly for much of the game, the Heels got away with a win.

UNC scored 0.84 pts/possession on horrendous 37% shooting. It was the 926th-worst shooting night in the last 1003 for UNC. UNC was 29% from 3, which was the 681st worst showing, but the 2-point shooting was 39%, the 936th-worst shooting night we've seen in that period.

Luckily Pitt was just awful, shooting 17% from 3pt land and 41% from 2, resulting in 0.70 pts/poss. It was the 130th-worst showing by an opponent....or was it UNC's defense? The Heels only forced 10% loss of ball, the 918th-worst pressure put on an opponent since 1996.

The whole game was just plain old ugly; uglier than the Capels. One good takeaway is that UNC not only righted the ship after a horrible start, but rebounded 72% of their plentiful misses. That's the 26th best offensive rebounding night in the last 1003 games.

This team is shooting free throws well. As of the Pitt game, they are shooting 77.1% from the stripe, the highest level we've seen from a UNC team in the last 29 years. The program average for that period is 70.0% with a standard deviation of 3.4%.

An interesting stat came out about Duke's streak of games with a made 3-pointers. That stat for UNC stands at 926. The only game without a made 3 since I started tabulating this in 1996 was the 1998 game against Princeton. (One of these days I'll enhance my database back to 1985, but it's a busy time right now for me personally and professionally.)

They will need to shoot well on Saturday, however, as they travel to play a ranked Clemson team. This is a key inflection point in the season, and the Heels can really make a statement with a good showing in that one.
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What about clempson pre game?

I watched just a little bit of the game where they got dumped by Miami and tbh Clemson didn't look all that impressive. Hall does have range but he's not an interior dominant big .. and he does have an interior game but looks more like a 4 than 5. They have a little size at the guard slots and by the stats they look to be able to get some turnovers .. and they don't mind running yet don't look to have quality depth. They haven't really played a tough schedule so what, from a UNC standpoint (other than playing in Little John, where we usually suck) is the main concern?

Anyone find it odd none of our opt outs were at the Bowl Game?

Zero opt outs attended as far as I know. Some chatter that Mack got pissy with them (including Drake) and they weren’t welcome around the facility leading up to the game.

Looking at other schools, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Brock Bowers all attended the bowl games on the sidelines. Travis Hunter was there for FSU.

Quick stuff (Pitt game)...

..and at least that's outta the way.

I'll hit the biggest issues first:
- I watched Pitt a bit earlier and they'll foul the scorekeeper if you let them. I posted that Mando had a chance for a good offensive game, BUT... that was predicated on a decent zebra crew. So much for that, but Mando did get to the line enough to make a diference and converted.

- with that said, Mando had a terrific defensive game vs their size. In fact, that was an impressive TEAM performance on that end.

- Speaking of FTs, even though we should've had twice the attempts, our pct continues to carry us on a night when we couldn't hit much else consistently. Fortunately, Pitt continued their FT brick-laying, as they got there more than they should have, TBH.

- I really hated playing too much at their tempo, but that defense carried the day, as well as a plucky effort on the glass. But geez, how may point-blank tips can we miss? Nonetheless, there is something to be said in prevaiing in a rock-fight, and even getting to 70 pts.

- On that note, several expressed hopes this week that our "edge" this season would serve us well up there, and YES, it did. We did NOT back down to their thug-ball. Ingram (despite a shooting drought) and Cormac were especially feisty on the offensive glass, and Cadeau stoned bigger guys until a GODAWFUL foul call on his dive steal. Mando was snagging boards (one time with BOTH brothers holding each arm, and our rim-protection served notice. WIthers and JWash gave as good as they got, and Seth was up in grilles as usual.

- Speaking of Seth, more good minutes and heady play, and how bout that alley-oop finish --- defintiely has JP's hops.

-Big-time 3s by RJ at the end and beginning of the halves. Major timely.

- 51-41 Rebound margin incl 16 offensive vs their length. That dog will hunt.

- We made them an iso one-on-one team . Pitt only had 6 Assists total.

- Finally, I really wanted to force tempo more but I am always gratified by a team defense that works together and rotates. Pitt's bad shooting night was no fluke, folks --- they had to work for (and sometimes force) their looks.

Anyway, posting this one and hoping for good discussion. We got past 1st road-game jitters and didn't allow ourselves to be bullied. Check. I'll take it...
:cool:
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