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Carolina vs Clemson game thread——Saturday 6 2024

Two top20 teams clash at LittleJohn and it will be the battle of two completely different offensive styles as UNC likes to run and quickly get into their offensive sets while Clemson is more of a half court team.

Like Carolina, Clemson has upperclassmen who have been in many battles and know how to score. Hall, Girard and Hunter are the big three for the Tigers and they can all shoot the three ball as the team makes about 10 a contest and that includes Hall who is a big man but is very deadly from downtown.

Covering Hall may be the big problem because he is very talented both inside and outside and I do not believe Coach Davis wants Bacot playing outside of the lane. Carolina might consider playing Ingram and Withers straight up on Hall instead of Bacot.

Ryan vs Girard should also be fun to watch because they are seasoned vets who can shoot from way out as well as drive and get fouled. Hunter will probably be matched against Davis except when Trimble is in for Cadeau.

Miami beat Clemson because the Hurricanes like last year played one big and 4 shooters and Clemson has absolutely nobody that could slow down or stop Pack who repeatedly had open mid range shots in the lane. RJ Davis hopefully can do the same thing.

The Tar Heels played well against Pittsburgh’s outside shooting and to keep the game close at Clemson they will have to play strong D on the perimeter yet again…

Ingram has to contribute some points earlier than 5 minutes left in the game and Washington, Trimble and Withers need to bring some energy and points off the bench.

Hall fouled out against Miami so hopefully Bacot can get some looks down in the blocks to either score or get Hall in foul trouble. Armando as of late is not getting many shots at the basket and about half of his points are now coming from his much improved free throw shooting.

I do believe Cadeau could be a game changer by looking for his shot and especially going to the hole hard like Trimble has done the last two games where he could score, get fouled or pass off to Bacot for a flush.

After the win on the road at Pittsburgh Carolina comes in with lots of confidence so the crazy crowd should not be a problem. It should be a very close contest with no prisoners taken either way…

UNC-Clemson Postgame Notes

CAROLINA 65, CLEMSON 55
JANUARY 6, 2024
LITTLEJOHN COLISEUM
CLEMSON, S.C.

UNC Scoring Leader:
Armando Bacot and RJ Davis 14
UNC Rebound Leader: Bacot 16
UNC Assist Leader: Cormac Ryan 4
Team Records: UNC 11-3, 3-0 ACC; Clemson 11-3, 1-2 ACC

• Carolina is 3-0 in the ACC for the first time since the 2015-16 season.
• Carolina allowed fewer than 60 points in consecutive road games for the first time since beating UNCG, 79-56, and Clemson, 74-50, in the 2014-15 season. The Tar Heels won at Pitt, 70-57, in their previous game on January 2.
• Carolina is 4-2 this season against AP-ranked teams.
• Carolina has its fourth quad 1 win of the season. Entering today, Purdue had won five Q1 games and only Arizona, Houston and Wisconsin had won four.
• Carolina held Clemson to a season-low 55 points. It was the second-lowest total by a Carolina opponent this season (UC Riverside scored 52).

• The 55 points were the fewest by Clemson against Carolina since UNC beat the Tigers, 74-50, on 1/5/2015.
• Carolina allowed the fewest points to an AP-ranked opponent since Michigan scored 51 in Chapel Hill on 12/1/21.
• Carolina was tied at halftime for the first time this season and for the first time since playing Louisville on 2/21/22.
• Carolina held Clemson to 5.6% (1 for 18) from three-point range, the third-lowest three-point percentage by an opponent with a minimum of 10 attempts in UNC history. Arizona shot 4.3% on 1/27/2007 and Texas A&M shot 5.0% on 12/20/2001.
• Carolina made a season-low seven free throws on a season-low 12 attempts. It is the fewest made free throws and free throw attempts since UNC made 7 of 10 against Boston College in the 2023 ACC Tournament.

• The seven free throws were the fewest in a road win since making seven at Georgia Tech in Hubert Davis’ first ACC game in 2021-22.
• Carolina and Clemson combined for zero fastbreak points. It was the first time Carolina did not score a fastbreak point since defeating Virginia on 2/25/23. Clemson is the third opponent Carolina has held to zero fastbreak points this season.
• Carolina shot 58.3% from the free throw line, its lowest percentage since shooting 57.9% against Notre Dame on 1/7/23.
• Armando Bacot and RJ Davis shared scoring honors for the Tar Heels with 14 points. This is the second time this season Bacot and Davis tied for the team lead in scoring (also against Lehigh).
• Bacot passed Charlie Scott for sixth place and Al Wood for fifth on Carolina’s all-time scoring list during the game. Bacot has 2,017 career points, Scott scored 2,007 and Wood scored 2,015.

• Bacot recorded his seventh double-double of the season and 75th of his career. Carolina is 6-1 this season and 54-21 overall when Bacot has a double-double.
• Bacot is one of three players in ACC history with 75 or more double-doubles with Tim Duncan and Ralph Sampson.
• Bacot’s 16 rebounds led Carolina in rebounds for the eighth time this season and 108th time in his career. This was the third time this season and 25th time as a Tar Heel he had 15 or more rebounds.
• Davis passed Caleb Love for eighth all-time in three-pointers by a Tar Heel. Davis has 201, one more than Love.
• Cormac Ryan led Carolina in assists with a season-high four. It is the second time Ryan has led Carolina in assists this season.

• Paxson Wojcik gave Carolina the lead for good with a three-pointer from the left wing with 8:44 to play, which broke a 45-all tie. It was Wojcik’s third 3FG of the season and first since the win over Arkansas on November 24.
• Carolina made eight threes, which was a season-high seven more threes than its opponent. Previous largest margin on 3’s was against UNI, when Carolina made 12 and UNI made six.
• Carolina held the Tigers to 36.2% from the floor in the second half. It was the third straight game UNC held the opponents under 40% shooting in the second half.
• The Tar Heel bench out-scored the Tigers’ bench, 14-2. UNC is 9-0 this season when its bench outscores the opponent bench.
• Carolina is 4-3 this season when only three Tar Heels score in double figures.
• UNC won for the sixth straight time when it has more rebounds. UNC out-rebounded the Tigers, 44-33.
• The Tar Heels are plus 42 on the glass in the last three games.

Carolina-Clemson
• Carolina is 136-23 all-time vs. the Tigers with wins in the last three games under head coach Hubert Davis.
• The Tar Heels are 42-18 in Clemson, including 31-15 in Littlejohn Coliseum.
• UNC is 17-3 vs. Clemson when both teams are ranked in the AP poll.

Next Game: at NC State, Wednesday, January 10 (8 p.m., ESPN)
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Incredible stat:

Incredible stat here: UNC’s opponents went 82:31 of game time between converting second-chance field goals.

Oklahoma did with 10:18 left in the first half, Pitt didn’t at all, and Clemson’s first today was with 7:11 left before halftime. That’s a span of 82:31.

Pitt’s FT after an OR was the only second-chance point UNC allowed in that stretch, too.

Stat Review: @Clemson (1/6/24)

STATVALUEPCTLEHISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%42 25
UNC_statBox_20.png

3FG%35 48
UNC_statBox_45.png

2FG%46 28
UNC_statBox_25.png

FT%58 15
UNC_statBox_15.png

fg%36 79
UNC_statBox_75.png

3fg%6 99
UNC_statBox_95.png

2fg%50 33
UNC_statBox_30.png

ft%75 32
UNC_statBox_30.png

PTS/POSS0.87 31
UNC_statBox_30.png

pts/poss0.77 70
UNC_statBox_70.png

TOTPOSS146 8
UNC_statBox_5.png

POSDIF4 61
UNC_statBox_60.png

%LOB13 70
UNC_statBox_65.png

%lob7 3
UNC_statBox_0.png

SmithIdx-0.008051
UNC_statBox_50.png

Interesting Stats
ast/poss0.08 92
UNC_statBox_90.png

AST/POSS0.19 43
UNC_statBox_40.png

OR%0.40 72
UNC_statBox_70.png

or%0.24 50
UNC_statBox_50.png

%FROM338.385
UNC_statBox_80.png


STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
OR% = UNC Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.344)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
or% = Opponent Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.241)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)
Discussion
UNC went into a ranked Clemson's house in what was to be one of the more compelling matchups of the ACC regular season. What we got was a massive clunker of a performance from both teams. There were only 146 total possessions, making it the 70th slowest game we've played in the last 1004 games.

UNC scored 0.87 points per possession on a terrible interior shooting performance. With its 46% 2-point shooting, it was a 25th percentile kind of shooting day. Thankfully Clemson was atrocious from behind the arc, shooting 6%. It was the 3rd-worst shooting we've seen from an opponent in the last 1004 games. That was pretty much all it took to explain Clemson's 0.77 pts' per possession day. Because Clemson took 31% of their shots from behind the arc, it was a real black eye on their performance; just ask Dabo Swinney.

This was a game UNC would have lost had it been facing a well-playing opponent. Harrison Ingram's shooting has been abysmal of late, and the contribution Cadeau is making on both ends of the floor is a long, long way from what this team needs. Cadeau played 19 minutes and garnered 1 assist along with 3 fouls.

Ingram was 3-10 from the floor overall, but just 1-5 from inside the arc. His play as a PF is far too soft, given that he has the body to jump up and ram it into the cup. It almost feels like Roy Williams frowned upon dunking, and the culture of being angry at the rim is completely gone from this program.

Basically it all starts with the PG play. We need to push tempo, get points in transition, and force turnovers. This team has a lot of work to do and it starts at the 1 position.

UNC vs Clemson Prediction Thread, Saturday, January 6, 12:00 noon (Triple Pts) ODDS UP

ODDS
-1.5 Clemson
Over/Under 157.5


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8

North Carolina Tar Heels

10-3, 2-0 CONF
North Carolina Tar Heels
ESPN2
1/6
12:00 PM


16

Clemson Tigers

11-2, 1-1 CONF
Clemson Tigers




Every effort will be made to make sure that the ODDS are posted approximately 24 hours before the game based from the Vegas links. Vegas does not normally issue the odds until approximately 24-28 hours before the game. The odds posted in the thread will normally be slightly different from the odds listed in the Vegas links. Your selection must be posted before the game starts. If you want to change your pick, please issue a revision to your original pick.


NCAA College Basketball Odds, Betting Lines & Point Spreads



Contest 5: Early Season Non-Conference Contest (only games that UNC participating )
Winners: Top 6 players win 3-month subscription to Premium

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Contest Rules:
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Contest #5 Early Season Non-Conference Contest ( See games above)

Bullet Points!

For the first 20 games, three (3) Bullet points will automatically be added for any player that forgets to post a prediction for a game. Thus, as long as a player posts a prediction for at least one game, he will receive 3 points for all games that he fails to make a prediction. This is applicable even if he does not make his first prediction until the 20th game of the season. In this case, he will still get 60 points for the first 20 games that he failed to make a prediction for. Bullet Points will be automatically added. You do not have to request them.

Points Awarded Per Game

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Special Note: The single point games have been eliminated

Grand Prize (Contest #4)
Post Season Contest

Top 15 players in Contest #1 and # 2
ACC and NCAA Tournaments games through title game (contest continues even if UNC eliminated)
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Double Winners—subscriptions can be stacked not to exceed 1 year premium subscription.

Holiday eating tips

I’m older than most y’all so I’ve accumulated lots of wisdom when it comes to holiday eating whether it’s family or friend gatherings

1. If anyone puts carrots out or a veggie tray in general just punch them in the face. Ain’t nobody got time for that bull shyt. Olives are acceptable

2. Ask if there’s skim milk in the mashed potatoes. If there is just pass. It’s like a sports car with automatic transmission. The room in your stomache is too precious to waste on anything not fully caloried.

3. Lots of gravy. Gravy on everything. Make a fukin gravy volcano. The whole plate should be afloat in gravy

4. Don’t know which pie to eat? Eat them all. A piece of each. What other day of the year will you have multiple pie choices? If you’re not crazy about one just add lots of cool whip. Follow gravy instructions when applying.

5. No one gaf if it’s dressing or stuffing. Just eat it and know noones is as good as your moms. Don’t forget the gravy

6. Don’t snack before going somewhere for the meal in an effort to not eat as much. This is blasphemy.

7. Fruitcake? Don’t fall for it. Chances are it’s been regifted the last few decades

8. No exercise between tksgiving and christmas. Don’t even try. It’s hopeless. Walking to make room for more food is acceptable.
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Jim Leonard rumor

A friend of a friend's buddy was eavesdropping and overheard a guy saying his wife's friend has a source in the AD who said that Gene is going to be replaced with Jim Leonard and he'll have a large, long buyout clause which financially make him the likely person to take over when Mack steps aside.

Big name, but it still feels like kicking the can down the road unless S&C and everything else is rebooted.

New Mindset Change in the Portal Era

Seems this group, unlike some others, are making the change in attitude to the transfers occurring through the portal. Instead of despair and disappointment, I merely wish those leaving searching for more playing time elsewhere the best, as long as they don't go to our rival schools, dook or peckertown. Not upset , merely disappointed in a few that I felt in time, would develop and give us quality playing time, but no longer the case, if guys can get on the field now, not later. And while we have around 10 or so at this point, I think Ohio State has over a dozen , Alabama 10 or so, so it's just a change in the system, akin to a rule change, like a fair catch on the kickoff and get the ball on the 25, instead of the 20. I certainly felt we got upgrades with Huzzie, Tez , and some others, and we still are a good place to spend a year or so playing football. I look forward to more info on returning players and coaches and new recruits, and also some new faces to help us.

Stat Review: @Pitt (1/2/24)

STATVALUEPCTLEHISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%37 8
UNC_statBox_5.png

3FG%29 31
UNC_statBox_30.png

2FG%39 9
UNC_statBox_5.png

FT%86 92
UNC_statBox_90.png

fg%31 94
UNC_statBox_90.png

3fg%17 93
UNC_statBox_90.png

2fg%41 71
UNC_statBox_70.png

ft%67 55
UNC_statBox_50.png

PTS/POSS0.84 25
UNC_statBox_20.png

pts/poss0.70 87
UNC_statBox_85.png

TOTPOSS165 41
UNC_statBox_40.png

POSDIF1 44
UNC_statBox_40.png

%LOB11 85
UNC_statBox_85.png

%lob10 10
UNC_statBox_5.png

SmithIdx0.048363
UNC_statBox_60.png

Interesting Stats
ast/poss0.07 95
UNC_statBox_95.png

AST/POSS0.14 18
UNC_statBox_15.png

OR%0.40 72
UNC_statBox_70.png

or%0.30 27
UNC_statBox_25.png

%FROM327.042
UNC_statBox_40.png


STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
OR% = UNC Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.344)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
or% = Opponent Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.241)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)
Discussion
The past few years, Pitt has been an Achilles Heel for UNC, and despite playing very poorly for much of the game, the Heels got away with a win.

UNC scored 0.84 pts/possession on horrendous 37% shooting. It was the 926th-worst shooting night in the last 1003 for UNC. UNC was 29% from 3, which was the 681st worst showing, but the 2-point shooting was 39%, the 936th-worst shooting night we've seen in that period.

Luckily Pitt was just awful, shooting 17% from 3pt land and 41% from 2, resulting in 0.70 pts/poss. It was the 130th-worst showing by an opponent....or was it UNC's defense? The Heels only forced 10% loss of ball, the 918th-worst pressure put on an opponent since 1996.

The whole game was just plain old ugly; uglier than the Capels. One good takeaway is that UNC not only righted the ship after a horrible start, but rebounded 72% of their plentiful misses. That's the 26th best offensive rebounding night in the last 1003 games.

This team is shooting free throws well. As of the Pitt game, they are shooting 77.1% from the stripe, the highest level we've seen from a UNC team in the last 29 years. The program average for that period is 70.0% with a standard deviation of 3.4%.

An interesting stat came out about Duke's streak of games with a made 3-pointers. That stat for UNC stands at 926. The only game without a made 3 since I started tabulating this in 1996 was the 1998 game against Princeton. (One of these days I'll enhance my database back to 1985, but it's a busy time right now for me personally and professionally.)

They will need to shoot well on Saturday, however, as they travel to play a ranked Clemson team. This is a key inflection point in the season, and the Heels can really make a statement with a good showing in that one.
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