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UNC vs Tennessee Prediction Thread, Wednesday, November 29, 2023, 7:15pm (ODDS UP) TRIPLE Points!

ODDS
-1.5 UNC
Over/Under 140.5



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7

Tennessee Volunteers

4-2, 1-0 AWAY
Tennessee Volunteers
ESPN
11/29
7:15 PM

14

North Carolina Tar Heels

5-1, 3-0 HOME
North Carolina Tar Heels




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NCAA College Basketball Odds, Betting Lines & Point Spreads



Contest 5: Early Season Non-Conference Contest (only games that UNC participating )
Winners: Top 6 players win 3-month subscription to Premium
  • Battle for Atlantis (Possible opponents - Arkansas, Memphis, Michigan, Texas Tech, Villanova)
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Contest #5 Early Season Non-Conference Contest ( See games above)

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Top 15 players in Contest #1 and # 2
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Contest #3 Prizes
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Double Winners—subscriptions can be stacked not to exceed 1 year premium subscription.

On Cadeau...

...I just want to lay out some things before we dive into the grinder this week. Take it as you will:

Many of y'all may remember that I started doing the "stuff" write-ups back in the 2014-15 seaosn, largely out of frustration at the self-defeating blunder of not starting Joel Berry. Marcus, to his credit, had the IQ to play Polnt --- and was better at it than RJ is --- but it still never came naturally. JB came out of the womb being a PG. When JB got in the game we were instantly a different and better team, and the numbers were astoundingly better.

In other words, Joel was the best PG in the program as soon as he signed, and came here ready to be a day-one starter. I watched Joel as much as I could find on screen in HS, and saw him live in AAU, and I knew damn well what we had. I watched Cadeau even more in HS (due to his team's media exposure), and also saw him live in AAU, and again, I know damn well what we have. He too became the best PG in the program as soon as he signed, and came in ready to be the day-one starter, and here once again, we are instantly a different and better team when he enters the game.

Here's the bottom line, guys: Freshman PGs will make "freshman" mistakes. Joel made mistakes, EC makes mistakes, hell, PHIL F***ing FORD made mistakes. BUT... Dean had the good sense to make Phil a freshman starter (our first, BTW) --- and even though he already had a damned good Combo PG (John Keuster) as a returning soph --- because he knew Phil was special.

Here's the key difference: When Phil made mistakes, Dean could pull him and coach him up and then put him back in WITHOUT hurting his confidence, because Phil knew his coach had faith in him to be his starting PG. As many of you know, it's different when you're coming off the bench. Mistakes feel bigger and you're afraid to just play, ESPECIALLY when you're a PG. Not starting visibly set JB back, just as it's visibly setting EC back.

Again, I watched these guys myriad times before they got here, and although their respective styles are different, JB and EC are both alpha Floor Generals who need to know they're the lead dog in the pack. Where Joel was the master at moving chess pieces on the fly, Eliot goes at it with Ed Cota flair, but they both need to have full confidence to do their things well. EC has already shown how fast he learns --- e.g., from getting in foul trouble to now playing much-improved D with a total of what?... one foul the past two games?

Finally (and this is glaring right about now), the biggest adjustment issue I'm seeing so far is NOT Cadeau learning to play with his UNC teammates --- the issue is his teammates learning to play with HIM. I'll say it straight-up --- Cadeau's HS (and even AAU) teammates were BETTER at playing with him than our guys are at this point. Lemme tell ya, every one of those guys busted ass to get in running lanes and to their cut spots, and knew damn well to NEVER assume the ball wasn't coming --- hell, even from 90 feet in some cases, or via some impossible angle in heavy traffic.

So... why is that? Well, our guys (especially the other starters) simply haven't spent enough time on the floor with him. Sure, it was fine to run him second team vs RJ in early practices to break in, but frankly, EC should've been running mostly White team for at least the 2-3 weeks leading up to games, and IMO, starting from game-one. In fact, I venture to say we'd be further along now if we had used the opening three games to get him the most possible game minutes with as many guys as possible.

Look. I love that the staff apparently had a come-to-Jesus (or maybe, come-to-Dean) self-evaluation this off-season. Carolina transition is back, baby (!!!), and the X-and-O stuff is fluid, and kudos for the roster-filling and using real depth. WITH THAT SAID... there will always be bumps, and as always, the goal is to peak in March. However, from this vantage point, if we want a shot at the promised land, it will need to be with a CONFIDENT EC at the wheel. Not starting Cadeau ASAP would be, as my mom used to say, "cutting off your nose to spite your face"...

This was a pretty good tournament for us

From a point differential standpoint, we were great in these last three games. We were favored by 12 over Northern Iowa and beat them by 22. We were an even match with Nova and played them evenly. Then, down one of our clear starters and only favored by a couple points, we whooped Arkansas by 15.

People are panicked that we're in for a repeat of last year due to that familiar, frustrating finish against Nova. It wasn't fun to watch that ending, but if Nova doesn't hit 90% of their free throws or we hit one more shot we're 3-0 this weekend. The other two games were way above expectations blowouts.

Harrison Ingram appears to have turned the corner as a junior, and if his play is sustainable at all we'll probably be a lot better than last year. We finally have a reliable third scorer again, and he's someone who can defend/rebound/pass to boot. Ryan also appears to be a decent off-ball shooter that we've missed (apart from Manek) for years, and Cadeau is making mistakes that are fixable with time. Trimble also is showing some offensive skills that will make him at minimum a solid rotation player.

I'm getting a bit ahead of myself but next year we potentially have a RJ/Cadeau/Trimble experienced backcourt with Ingram/Powell/Jackson at forward. We lose Bacot but have Washington and can potentially add via frontcourt transfers. I think we should feel good about where the team's at currently and we're in a great spot for next year as things currently stand too.

The discussions/threads here have diminished a lot

This board used to be very active. I come here and see the activity is down substantially. Why do you think this is?

Is it that a lot of threads require premium level to access? I understand this is a business and they want more to pay for content, but is this actually deterring participation?

It’s the beginning of a season where we have some good transfers and new faces. I would expect a lot more activity.

Quick stuff (Arky game)...

...and folks, that was a damned good win.

Lots to talk about, but let's start here: I've seen more than enough of Arky down here in SEC country, and they are a dirty team with a coach who teaches that crap --- grabs, elbows, undercuts, illegal screens, body-blocks... plus they travel constantly even just catching a pass. What's funny is that for about 8 minutes I actually thought we had a zebra crew that was gonna call that nonsense, but of course they started letting it "even out", which never goes well for us.

SO.... the question, as it is so often. was how would we react? Answer: Generally speaking, way better than yesterday., especially in the second half....

- On the down side, pointing at Mando and Withers --- guys. TAKE THE BALL THE RACK STRONG, especially against teams like this. Aggression usually gets rewarded more than finesse, unfortunately. On the plus side up front, we all but shut Arky out inside. Their 1st team ALL-SEC Big got a big fat ZERO today.

- We also outrebounded a physical and athletic team by 11.

- Speaking of plus up front, after getting bullied yesterday. our man JWash came to play today, by gum, mixing it up and playing strong vs flailing arms. Good and valuable 11 minutes with 6 and 5.

- We eventually managed to get to 70% at the line (largely thanks to RJ and Mando), but we need to be closer to 80 in these games. Too many pts given away.

- There were stretches in the first half when you could plainly see us missing Ryan, especailly when RJ went out with a second "foul" --- one of the most GAWDAWFUL opposite-of-correct calls I can remember (which BTW caused a 5-point turnaround)--- Hubert was justifiably LIVID). That's when we needed our role-players to step up.

- However, the good news is they did exactly that in the second half. Just when we were clicking and turned a 3 pt halftime deficit into an 11 point lead, we lose Cadeau for a dangerous stretch (on another dirty play, go figure) and that's when things got predictably sketchy. Kudos to Seth for really stepping up in crucial moments to help keep them at bay --- couple of big-time rhythm 3s and got on the glass with those hops --- best game as a Heel, and Woj made a couple of HUGE timely plays down the stretch after we lost EC for good.

- An ironic side-effect of that awful call on RJ was that he got a lot of rest, and I'll tell ya, it absolutely showed with fresh legs in the second half. Little guy was spry whilst his opponents were running on fumes ;)

- Although we hafta be careful about overdoing it, having a wide-body tweener with long arms like Ingram to iso is a HELLUVA luxury --- reminds me of trying to guard Adrian Dantley back in the day --- and folks, we saw how much our SPACING has improved from last season. Being able to always have an open man available to pass outta doubles is what I love to see.

- Eliot Cadeau --- meet me at Camera 3, young fella: You're the vital and frankly, irreplaceable ingredient for this team to reach its goals. Play with the swagger with which you toyed with elite high schoolers, and embrace the lessons you're getting at the college level. I saw you over there beating yourself up after that last foul. Good! Learn from it, little brother. Yes, I know you once again got hosed a couple of times to be in that situation, and the last one was ticky-tack, but you just can't give any away. We are a different and better team with you at the helm. Period.

- Generally speaking, although I would still like us to come up with more loose balls (that was glaring yesterday, BTW), we took care of the rock pretty darn well vs a ball-hawking and grabby team. 10 TOs today ain't so bad, and one of those came because they had clearly scouted the set play we ran before the half.

- Back to the dirty stuff: First, major props to #12 (the Houston transfer). Dude was on fire and hard to guard (for a really old-school reference, there was a lotta Dick Barnett in his game). With that said, there's no place for the leg kick-outs and offensive flops. That is supposed to be a point-of-emphasis over recent years, and for good reason --- it is friggin DANGEROUS to everyone involved. I really hope the kid is alright of course, but I have to point out that the ugly fall he took came from once again kicking out his leg and trying to pick up a cheap one on Mando (who avoided it). Again, let's hope he's ok.

- Finally, these super-cool early tourneys are not only great for hoops junkies like me, they are when you ideally learn some key things about your own team. And some things are becoming --- at least to my eyes --- very clear this week:
1. JWash will be key as our backup 5. If he continues to play tough like today, there's no reason for Mando to not go 110% during his minutes.
2. Withers is best suited as our first backup 4, NOT a starter. He just needs to play like his size when he goes inside and and play defense with his feet. We've also got High and/or Oko for spot/energy minutes.
3. What we saw from Seth and Pax today is exactly fitting of their perfect roles as our backup 2/3 "swing" men, enabling us to rotate five capable guys amongst the three perimeter slots (with an occasional sixth with Ingram if/when go "big").
4. It is painfully obvious that our best and default starting lineup needs to be EC/RJ/Ryan/Ingram/Bacot. No ifs, ands or buts. If some still can't see how much better we are with EC at PG, then welp... I can't help ya... :rolleyes:

Anyway... contrary to what some doom & gloomers whine about, this is a strong roster that just handled a preseason SEC favorite while short-handed. Yes, that Nova game still irks me, BUT... are you guys seeing the ass-whuppin' they're putting on media-darling Memphis right about now? And think about it --- as I pointed out yesterday, Nova had to have EVERYTHING come out their way just to snatch one from us in OT. Yes, we have more of the grinder on the horizon. and all teams are works-in-progress this time o' year. but if, and I say IF, we embrace what I pointed to above, we have a helluva ceiiing...
:cool:
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