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ESPN on coaches, programs, players with things to prove in 2023

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Most pertinent to us:

David Dale - "Since returning to Chapel Hill, Mack Brown has taken North Carolina to an Orange Bowl and an ACC championship game, yet it still feels like the Tar Heels have largely underperformed. When UNC lost to Texas A&M in the 2020 Orange Bowl, it felt like the program was on the precipice of something special, only for the 2021 season to be a complete disaster. Then the Heels found a genuine superstar at QB in Drake Maye and opened 2022 by winning nine of their first 10 games ... only to lose four straight to end the year. Brown has recruited well, but precious few of those blue-chippers have truly developed into stars. He has a potential Heisman winner in Maye, but the offense will also look a bit different with a new coordinator after Phil Longo left for Wisconsin. And the defense? Well, at least it can't get any worse. Brown is 71, and while he has shown no signs of slowing down, the window for UNC to climb from talented underachiever into a true playoff threat feels like it's starting to close."

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I'm Dreaming of a 7th Place Finish

There. I said it. I've finally lowered expectations that much.

We can only lose 1 more game the rest of the way. Here's how I got to that conclusion.

After the Miami loss, Pomeroy projects us with a 10-9 conference record, good for an 8th place tie with Syracuse.

If the ACCT brackets get filled out as Pomeroy projects, we'll have a first round bye, giving us a rematch with Syracuse in our opener on Wednesday, March 8th.

We beat Syracuse on their court, but it wasn't exactly what anyone would call a convincing win (we blew a 10-pt lead and had to come back at the very end to win). Pete was the MVP in that game. He hasn't shown that lately.

Assuming we beat 'Cuse, we play Virginia for the 3rd time. So, unless we've really turned things around, that's probably the end of our ACCT run. And with a 21-12 overall record and hardly any quad 1 wins, the NIT is the best we are likely to do after that. If we don't beat Syracuse, even the NIT may not want us. But I think our name (and advertising value) probably gets us in.

Now obviously things will change before the regular season ends. But it would be a good idea for us to move up at least 1 spot.

If we can manage to finish in 7th place, our first game will be the winner of the 10/15 matchup. That's the winner of the FSU-Louisville game. Which, let's face it, is a MUCH BETTER path. And after we (presumably) beat FSU, we get a rematch with PITT. And that's something I'd really like to see.

I think we can beat Pitt. Which would then take us to another rematch - this time with Miami. Another juicy game I think we can win.

So, what I'm saying is that we need to end up in 7th place. Which means no more than 1 loss the rest of the way. Even that won't guarantee we move into 7th place - depending on what everyone else does we might still end up in 8th place and an early out - but it's our best shot.

Stat Review: @Notre Dame (2/23/23)

STATVALUEPCTLEHISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%333
UNC_statBox_0.png

3FG%91
UNC_statBox_0.png

2FG%4627
UNC_statBox_25.png

FT%8387
UNC_statBox_85.png

fg%4061
UNC_statBox_60.png

3fg%3062
UNC_statBox_60.png

2fg%4651
UNC_statBox_50.png

ft%6754
UNC_statBox_50.png

PTS/POSS0.737
UNC_statBox_5.png

pts/poss0.8258
UNC_statBox_55.png

TOTPOSS15825
UNC_statBox_20.png

POSDIF1496
UNC_statBox_95.png

%LOB1087
UNC_statBox_85.png

%lob1323
UNC_statBox_20.png

SmithIdx-0.186919
UNC_statBox_15.png

Interesting Stats
AST/FG0.353
UNC_statBox_0.png

ast/to1.1149
UNC_statBox_45.png

%from34035
UNC_statBox_35.png

%FROM333.369
UNC_statBox_65.png


STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)
Discussion
UNC entered a must-win situation and stunk it up for the first 20 minutes, scoring only 19 points before halftime. After a blistering halftime speech, the Heels came out and got a good basket from Bacot, then generated a steal with halfcourt defensive pressure from RJ Davis. The rest of the game wasn't great, but it was clearly a step above. This is why I keep saying that the defense is the problem with this team. If they will change the defensive approach, it will feed the offense and correct its woes.

What woes? UNC was 9% from 3-point land. Believe it or not, there have been 9 occasions since 1996 where the shot worse. Overall the team shot 33%, a performance only worse in 33 games of the last 986. From 2 UNC was a poor 46%. UNC scored 0.73 pts/possession and allowed 0.82 pts/possession. Assists per made field goal was also a terrible stat. With 0.35 A/FG, it was worthy of the 3rd percentile.

How did they win? Rebounding. UNC earned a stellar 14 possession advantage over ND. That's only happened 30 times in the last 986. They also took care of the ball, turning it over only on 10% of their possessions.

This was a 158 possession game, only in teh 25th percentile in Pace of Play. Certainly the pace picked up at halftime, and we saw improved play and flow. Davis needs to push tempo every time we touch the ball.

Next up is UVA, who after trying to lose 2 games to crappy teams last week, finally did it against BC last night. Just what we needed; a team that has woken up. SMH.

Passion and effort

Passion and effort.

Roy said many times over the last several years of his career that he never had to coach effort before (earlier in his career).

It's obvious that effort and passion is missing from this team. Why?

Are they just defeated after high hopes and a historic downfall and they just want the season over?

Last night made it obvious that when the passion and effort is there they can be a decent, dangerous team.

I'm baffled by this group.

Meaningless Coaching Hypothetical

Say we're really bad next season and there's an opportunity to move on from Hubert. Would you entertain Chris Beard? His DV charges were dropped. He probably won't coach next season because it's too soon to hire him. But assuming he has a clean year, would you entertain that? He's probably easily one of the 10 best coaches in the country.

I know a bunch here will want Wes Miller. Most will want to stay in the family. But I'll bring up a free agent who's one of the best 10 coaches in the country. Texas looked like a Final Four team before his DV situation.
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Which rival is the most important?

Since 2014, we—the students and professors of the Know Rivalry Project—have been answering this question for professional sports with the help of message board members. Now we are expanding our research to the ACC. Please help us ensure that UNC is included by taking 9 minutes to complete our updated survey:
https://bit.ly/MCBKrivalry
Our previous results have been featured in numerous sports media outlets, as well as the Wall Street Journal and New York Times. You can view those results, links to media coverage, and learn more about us at our KnowRivalry.com website.

We use the Qualtrics online survey software for data collection. This academic research has been approved by two universities' Institutional Review Boards (IRB) and it poses no risks to respondents. You'll find more information on the disclosure agreement that is required to start the survey. Thank you for helping us to include [team] by participating and please share this with any other fans that may also help.

Student Researcher, Northern Kentucky University
Dr. Joe Cobbs, Northern Kentucky University
Dr. David Tyler, University of Massachusetts—Amherst

ACC Tournament Seeding Question

If Pomeroy is right, and we end in a 3-way tie with Wake and Syracuse, how do the tie-breakers work?

We beat Syracuse and split with Wake.

Wake and Syracuse play at Syracuse in their final regular season game. If Wake wins then they, too, will have beaten Syracuse and split with us. Syracuse is out of the running for the 7 seed in this scenario, but how do they decide between UNC and Wake?

Alternatively (and more likely, I think) Wake loses at Syracuse, so now Syracuse has beaten Wake and lost to us. So how does that get resolved?

Diamond Heels hosts Radford (14-2 UNC) and Longwood (10-0 UNC) in the midweek

BY UNC ATHLETIC COMMUNICATIONS

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. – The University of North Carolina baseball team will continue its five-game home stand when they welcome a pair of opponents from the Big South conference to Boshamer Stadium during the midweek slate. The Diamond Heels will host Radford on Tuesday and Longwood on Wednesday with the first pitch for both games scheduled for 4 p.m.

Freshman left-handed pitcher Kyle Percival will get the start for North Carolina against Radford and junior right-handed pitcher Jake Knapp will be on the mound versus Longwood. It'll be the first appearance in a Tar Heel uniform for each player.

UNC won the final two games of its season-opening series with Seton Hall over the weekend, while Radford took two of three from Xavier to start its season.

Longwood, who was swept by Mount St. Mary's to start its season, plays at Virginia on Tuesday before traveling to Chapel Hill on Wednesday.

SERIES VS. RADFORD: The Tar Heels are 4-1 all-time against the Highlanders, who are making their sixth visit to Boshamer Stadium. UNC and Radford met for the first time in 1996 and then again in 1997, splitting those two games with the Tar Heels winning the former. The two teams didn't meet again until 2017 when North Carolina swept the three-game series.

SERIES VS. LONGWOOD: Wednesday's game will be the third meeting between the Diamond Heels and Lancers. Last season UNC posted a 16-1 win over Longwood, pounding out 14 hits and drawing 10 walks. Honeycutt led off the game with a home run and Frick smashed a grand slam in the sixth inning as 11 different players collected a hit. The only other meeting in the series occurred in 2009 resulting in a 5-4 Tar Heel victory.

Pitching MatchupsTuesay | 4 p.m. (ACCNX)Wednesday | 4 p.m. (ACCNX)
Radford / LongwoodRHP Foster SeitzRHP Cole Taylor
North CarolinaLHP Kyle PercivalRHP Jake Knapp
LinksWATCH | STATSWATCH | STATS

BATTLING BACK: After a surprising 10-8 opening day loss, the Tar Heels held Seton Hall to four runs in the next two games and allowed just two earned runs in 18 innings. UNC outscored the Pirates 15-4 in the final two games. The Tar Heels drew 18 walks in the last two games and struck out only 10 times in 84 plate appearances. Mac Horvath (1.792), Frick (1.207), and Honeycutt (1.108) each posted over a 1.000 OPS. The trio went a combined 12-for-30 (.400) at the plate with 10 runs, eight RBIs, three doubles and two triples. Horvath finished a single shy of hitting for the cycle in the series opener.

LOCKDOWN PEN: In the final two games of the Seton Hall series, UNC's relievers pitched 10.2 scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts against three walks, while scattering six hits. Freshman Cameron Padgett earned the victory in his Tar Heel debut Saturday as did redshirt freshman Dalton Pence on Sunday. Padgett tossed 4.1 scoreless innings with three strikeouts and Pence struck out four in 2.1 innings pitched Sunday. Junior college transfer picked up the save in the series finale, throwing 2.0 scoreless innings with three strikeouts.

TAR HEEL DEBUTS: In addition to Padgett, Pence and Peterson, six other Tar Heels also made their UNC debuts over the weekend. Freshman Austin Hawke started the first two games at second base and junior college transfer Jackson Van Brake made appeared in the lineup for the first time as pinch hitter Saturday. He started Sunday's game at second base and hit a home run. Justin Szestowicki, Matthew Matthijs, Matt Poston and Kevin Eaise made their UNC debuts on the mound as well.

OPENING WEEKEND CROWD: More than 8,200 fans passed through the turnstiles at Boshamer Stadium over the weekend. The three-day attendance of 8,263 was the largest for the season-opening series this millennium and Saturday's crowd of 3,049 was the largest crowd for a February game in over two decades.

Time for Caleb to be a star

I am not here to debate poor shot selections, I am here to make a case that Love's legacy may be on the line with Bacot and Nance out.

Caleb's freshmen year, we as die hard fans knew it wasn't a great year, but as a fresh we knew Caleb had at least the ability to control a game when he scores and is getting steals. Caleb's sophomore year he still had games we thought he could play better, but we discovered he has a clutch gene or the want to make a play at the end of games. During the tournament he had very few games he put together two good half's, but his ability to score in bunches was on display.

Now we reach a point in the season that maybe we were on the cusp of getting our swagger back, we are hit with a major piece in Bacot being out.

I contend that Caleb's UNC career legacy is on the line right now. Real UNC fans have been very patient as Caleb has been ragged about his play this year. It would be a nice time to see Love's game as Bacot is out, if not he definitely will be hurting his NBA stock. He can't hide he is a streaky scorer, he can show is a winner right now. I know Jimmy Butler plays better defense, but that is who I compare Love to, and Jimmy buckets gives it to cats when he needs to step up. Caleb time, just hope he is ready!

Next year's roster

Guards: Davis, Dunn, Trimble, Wilcher

Wings: Puff, Nickel

Bigs: Washington, High

Just my prediction but I see Love, Bacot, Styles, McKoy, Shaver all moving on. That gives us 5 open scholarship spots to play with.

The roster above is a sub .500 team in my opinion, and I think having a record that bad would have a good chance of costing Hubert his job. It's deficient at all three position groups.

I think we've got 4-5 spots for transfers and It's on the staff to find at least three impact players to turn this ship around.
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