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What's Wrong with Our 3-pt Shooting, and What Can We Do About It?

As a team we are averaging 30.4% from deep. Making us 316th in the nation. Yikes! In the chart below I've listed our opponents in order of Pomeroy rank (at the time we played them).

Opponent (P-Rank)UNC's 3pt %Made-Attempts
The Citadel (277)48.4%15-31
Gardner Webb (183)32.0%8-25
UNC-Wilmington (121)20.0%2-10
Portland (115)50.0%11-22
Georgia Tech (108)23.1%3-13
Charleston (100)25.0%5-20
James Madison (77)32.0%8-25
Iowa St (43)13.7%3-18
Virginia Tech (24)17.6%3-17
Ohio St (18)21.4%6-28
Indiana (17)27.8%5-18
Alabama (12)30.4%7-23

If I'm doing the math right, we shot 36.4% against creampuffs, 23.1% against better foes (under 100 rating).

Cincinnati Extends Wes Miller's Contract, Bumps Salary To $2.95 Million Per Year

Posted Dec 14, 2022
The University of Cincinnati Board of Trustees approved a contract extension through the 2028-29 season for men's basketball coach Wes Miller. The extension adds two years to his current contract and increases his average annual salary to $2.95 million per year, keeping one of the best young coaches in the country in Cincinnati for the next six years. (Cincinnati Athletics)
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Stat Review: Ohio State (12/17/22)

STATVALUEPCTLEHISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%4437
UNC_statBox_35.png

3FG%2113
UNC_statBox_10.png

2FG%5981
UNC_statBox_80.png

FT%7051
UNC_statBox_50.png

fg%4626
UNC_statBox_25.png

3fg%3837
UNC_statBox_35.png

2fg%5032
UNC_statBox_30.png

ft%5089
UNC_statBox_85.png

PTS/POSS0.9348
UNC_statBox_45.png

pts/poss0.8745
UNC_statBox_40.png

TOTPOSS19393
UNC_statBox_90.png

POSDIF-133
UNC_statBox_30.png

%LOB1469
UNC_statBox_65.png

%lob1651
UNC_statBox_50.png

SmithIdx-0.038945
UNC_statBox_40.png

Interesting Stats
AST/FG0.6362
UNC_statBox_60.png

AST/POSS0.2157
UNC_statBox_55.png

%RMS0.4068
UNC_statBox_65.png

%FROM338.987
UNC_statBox_85.png


STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)
Discussion
The Heels win a thriller in the Garden! It was a rough game for this team for 33 minutes, as Ohio State scored at will. In the first half Ohio State scored 1.00 points per possession while UNC was 0.82. UNC was down 9, essentially the largest deficit of the game, with 7 minutes remaining when they turned on the full-court defensive pressure. For these teams to end up at 0.87 and 0.93 just shows how much the game tilted in the final 7 minutes.

The most dramatic moment of the season so far came with 2 seconds remaining in regulation. Down 2, the Heels advanced it to half court for a quick timeout, then inbounded it to Pete Nance for a turnaround buzzer beater to send it to overtime. The 3rd stanza was all Heels.

How did the Heels have such a decisive efficiency advantage? OSU had one more possession, so UNC lost the rebounding battle. OSU shot 46% to UNC's 44%. UNC was an abysmal 21% from the arc. OSU lost the ball on 16% of their turnovers, but UNC lost it on 14%. What was the big difference? Free Throws. Ohio State was 7-14 from the line, but UNC was 19-27. The real difference was the rim attack from Bacot and Davis, who combined for 18 FTAs. While UNC fell in love with the 3 a high 39% of their possessions, it was this attack in the middle that was the difference.

The other takeaways are the palpable difference in defense when Leaky Black and Seth Trimble are on the floor vs. when Caleb Love and Puff Johnson are on the floor. Additionally it looks like Caleb Love still hasn't learned to separate his emotions from his shot selection. He hit a nice, tough 3 at the beginning the run, but then stymied the run some with some horrendous shot selection. One could argue that if he, instead, were focused on getting the ball inside, this game wouldn't have gone to OT. He truly is the most enigmatic player we've had in the last 18 years.

Statistically there weren't too many facets of the game that were unusual. The most unusual was the Rule of 69 being broken. Ohio State lead 69-64 with 5:14 remaining, but the Heels defied that 6% chance of winning. 69 with over 5 minutes means this pace was a bit faster than normal, and in fact there were 172 possessions per 40 mins (169.0 is average). We took an unusually high number of shots from 3, and our 3 points shooting was in the 13th percentile.

OT: Another GOAT

If you don't know about Erin Matson, the GOAT of women's field hockey, then you need to read up on her. She is now a 3 time NPOY, a 4-time national champion (3 of those undefeated seasons), and (due to COVID allowing an extra year) a 5-time first-team All American.

Be blessed to be a Tar Heel! Superb academics and we own the GOATs of 3 sports in Jordan, Hamm, and Matson! As she said, "Only Tar Heels really know what it feels like."

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UNC-Ohio State Postgame Notes

NORTH CAROLINA 89, OHIO STATE 84 (OT)
SATURDAY, DEC. 17, 2022
CBS SPORTS CLASSIC
MADISON SQUARE GARDEN, NEW YORK, N.Y.

UNC Scoring Leader:
Armando Bacot 28
UNC Rebound Leader: Bacot 15
UNC Assist Leader: Caleb Love 7
Team Records: UNC 8-4, Ohio State 7-3

• Carolina forced overtime on a turnaround jump shot by Pete Nance as time expired.
* Carolina trailed by 10 with 6:44 to play. It’s the first time UNC trailed by double digits with less than 10:00 to play and won since beating Louisville, 72-71, on 1/10/2015.
• Carolina held OSU to 5 of 17 field goals and four turnovers in the final 6:44 of regulation and overtime.
• Carolina is 6-3 in the CBS Sports Classic, including 3-0 vs. Ohio State.
• This was the first time UNC went to overtime in the CBS Sports Classic.
• Carolina is 30-11 in Madison Square Garden and 44-25 all-time in New York City.
• This was UNC’s first game in MSG since 12/28/2010.
• Carolina is 1-1 in overtime games this season (lost in 4 overtimes to Alabama in Portland, Ore., on 11/27).
• Carolina is 4-1 in overtime games under head coach Hubert Davis.
• This was Carolina’s first overtime game in MSG since beating Rhode Island in the 2010 NIT semifinals on 3/30/2010.
• Carolina is 3-1 in overtime games in MSG.
• Armando Bacot had his 16th career game with at least 20 points and 15 rebounds and his 56th career double-double. He is five double-doubles from passing Billy Cunningham for the UNC record.
• Bacot matched his season high with 28 points (also vs. Charleston).
• This was Bacot’s fifth consecutive double-double and seventh in his 11 games this season.
• Bacot scored 28, Caleb Love scored 22 and RJ Davis had 21. It was the first time this season three Tar Heels scored 20 or more points.
• It was Bacot’s 20th career 20-point game, Love’s 20th career 20-point game and Davis’s eighth career 20-point game.
• Bacot made a season-high 11 field goals, one off his career high.
• Bacot grabbed seven offensive rebounds (he has 31 in the last five games).
• Bacot has 1,129 rebounds (needs 40 to pass Sam Perkins and 91 to pass Tyler Hansbrough for the UNC record).
• Bacot passed Dennis Wuycik and Kennedy Meeks and tied Donald Williams for 32nd all-time at UNC with 1,492 points.
• Carolina is 19-1 when Love scores 20 points.
• UNC is 4-0 this season and 18-0 the last two seasons when Love has five or more assists.
• Love had seven assists (most by a Tar Heel this season) and two turnovers. UNC is 6-0 this year when has more assists than turnovers.
• Carolina had 20 assists on 32 field goals (59 assists on 91 field goals in the last three games)
• Leaky Black had seven points (made his first three in five games) and led all players with a game-high plus/minus of +27.
• Nance had 10 rebounds, his third with double figures in the last five games.
• Carolina scored a season-high 27 points off 16 Buckeye turnovers (previous high of 24 points vs. Charleston).
• The Tar Heels led for 9:29, the least amount of time in a win this season (previous was 18:15 vs. Charleston).

Series vs. Ohio State
• Carolina is 13-3 vs. Ohio State, including 3-0 in Madison Square Garden.

Next Game: Wednesday, December 21 vs. Michigan in Charlotte in the Jumpman Invitational (7 p.m., ESPN)
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