A delicate balance...

[gary-7]

...a follow-up from this weekend and beyond. TIFWIW.

Wrangling the numerical realities for a college basketball coach is often a tenuous situation. The normal graduation cycle, early NBA entries, a recruiting miss (or bust), and most ominously, injuries present constant challenges. Unlike the NBA you can't make a move at the trade deadline or pick up a free agent shooter. You go into March with the team you have.

So, what does Roy have as I write this? The game at dook last Saturday --- gut-wrenching loss that it was --- may provide the answers.

1. This is a points-in-the-paint team. On the big stage in Durham, and despite the hype and immense talent of Jahil Okafor, Carolina's front line owned the night. The tandem of Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson put up a combined 36 points and 19 rebounds, to Okafor and Amile Jefferson's combined 29 and 12. Moreover, backups Isiah Hicks and Joel James brought an additional 18 and 8, while dook's bench was, um... Marshall Plumlee (0 and 2). Being an inside-out team takes scoring pressure off the Guards while enabling more open looks from outside at the same time.
The Meeks/Johnson/Hicks three-man post rotation is UNC's biggest strength and if big Joel can have more games like that you can add a fourth member, and top the depth off with reliable spot duty from Jackson Simmons. This is the premier offensive post tandem in the country, and when they play with Roy's "sense of urgency" on defense, they can be the best of the best.

2. J.P. Tokoto can be a difference-maker. This one is predicated on an "if"... and it's a big one: If Tokoto plays the role he is best suited for. He did that for the most part Saturday and, ask dook, he was a nightmare for them. This happened because he played most of the night in his best role of athletic 3-man, i.e., slashing, attacking the rim, rebounding and getting out in transition. Despite not spending much time on the perimeter, he picked up 7 assists to go with his 15 points and 8 rebounds. Add in his 3 steals and 2 blocks on the other end, and that definitely screams "nightmare". Contrast Saturday with the games where he has spent too much time roaming the perimeter, firing ill-advised passes and outside shots. Justin Jackson is struggling somewhat, but he too can be a difference-maker. His game is one of constant motion with the ability to finish in a variety of ways off the pass and can be an outside threat. He also showed some new toughness on the boards Saturday.
JP is an effective and exciting college 3, and if he embraces that role UNC will be much the better for it. Justin is finding his way, but can also be a vital cog from the wing. Perhaps coming off the bench would be the best fit for him at this point, but his potential to live up to his nickname ("Walking Buckets") is obviously there.

3. The best roles for the Guards seem to have emerged. The idea of living and dying on Marcus Paige is misplaced as the first point above illustrates. This must be an inside-out team, and that fits Carolina's history. However, Guard play is essential. Thus, Carolina's suddenly thin rotation must be utilized to its highest efficiency. Joel Berry is easily the best option at Point and Paige is the best option at the 2. Much of the impressive output from the bigs Saturday was enabled by the spacing and passing angles created with Berry running the show. Marcus and Joel both know how to feed the post. Post players got the ball when and where they wanted it for the most part. The importance of that cannot be overstated. Those passing angles suddenly went away when Nate Britt took over the Point. Britt's contributions were best when he was off the ball. He did pretty well at the 2 Saturday when he was in for long stretches with Berry (due of Paige's foul trouble).
UNC is a better team offensively and defensively when Berry is on the floor. Berry and Paige should be the go-to backcourt, with Berry as the primary PG. If Joel is not in then Marcus should be run the Point. Britt can be an effective backup, but is better not being the primary ball-handler.

4. Carolina must be a transition team. That has always been UNC's bread-and-butter and it starts with strong defense and board control. The Wes Unseld outlet passes from Meeks were a thing of beauty Saturday. It also helps to have Guards on the floor to run, and a 3-man to help control the defensive glass. Being good in transition also creates easy post entries off the Secondary Break, as well as uncontested 3s.

This team has the potential to make a big run if they can make the best use of what Roy has to work with. If they do then this bunch has Final Four potential. However, if UNC doesn't make the best use of its personnel and roles then they will be fortunate to make it out of a sub-regional. Definitely a delicate balance.

This post was edited on 2/20 3:57 PM by gary-7

 

[keysersosay#1]

Make your FTs down the stretch, especially front ends of 1 and 1's and you WIN the game..... miss them and...........................

 

[gary-7]

Originally posted by keysersosay#1:

Make your FTs down the stretch, especially front ends of 1 and 1's and you WIN the game..... miss them and...........................

Yessir. ALWAYS true. Don't care who you are.

 

[HeelFan58]

You have to give it to Nate. He took full responsibility.

 

[gary-7]

Originally posted by HeelFan58:

You have to give it to Nate. He took full responsibility.

Yep, and at this point a lot of that is on Roy. I'm going to be honest: Nate shouldn't have been the main ball-handler down the stretch and much of OT. Roy flat made an error in judgement not having Berry and Paige be the backcourt in OT. And when we went three-Guards down the stretch in regulation and again in OT, Roy should have dictated that the ball should have been in Berry's hands, or Paige's if you're gonna run an isolation for him.
Roy let Berry create his own shot at the end of the first half and he got off a good one that barely missed, and with time for JP to swoop in and flush it. When Nate was at Point, Marcus was being held off the ball and Nate just could not create something to make them pay for that.

 

[BillyL]

My guess is that Roy doesn't have the same confidence in Berry that he has in Britt.

 

[keysersosay#1]

britt is a 90%FT shooter .All the more reason why he should be in the game and should MAKE his FTS

 

[coryfly]

Britt has always been a clutch FT shooter in late game situations. This is the first time I can remember him missing.

 

[PolkCountyBullGator]

Originally posted by keysersosay#1:

britt is a 90%FT shooter .All the more reason why he should be in the game and should MAKE his FTS

Did you see the look in his eyes when he stepped to the FT line? Check the replay.

I knew we where in trouble.

[/B]

 

[gary-7]

Originally posted by BillyL:

My guess is that Roy doesn't have the same confidence in Berry that he has in Britt.

...and thus the error in judgement.
This post was edited on 2/20 11:02 PM by gary-7

 

[gary-7]

Originally posted by PolkCountyBullGator:

Originally posted by keysersosay#1:

britt is a 90%FT shooter .All the more reason why he should be in the game and should MAKE his FTS

Did you see the look in his eyes when he stepped to the FT line? Check the replay.

I knew we where in trouble.

[/B]

I did. And especially after K's added "time-out" thanks to the clock operator. Now, I WANT Nate on the floor in those situations for his FT shooting. He's usually automatic.
In fact, Paige, Britt and Berry are all basically 90% guys, and thus the good move by Roy to go three-guards there. The bad move was putting Nate at the 1.

 

[BillyL]

Originally posted by gary-7:

Originally posted by BillyL:

My guess is that Roy doesn't have the same confidence in Berry that he has in Britt.

...and thus the error in judgement.

Hindsight is always 20-20, Gary . .

Monday morning quarterbacking is just all too easy . . you know, woulda, coulda, shoulda.

 

[DSouthr]

Originally posted by gary-7:
...a follow-up from this weekend and beyond. TIFWIW.

Wrangling the numerical realities for a college basketball coach is often a tenuous situation. The normal graduation cycle, early NBA entries, a recruiting miss (or bust), and most ominously, injuries present constant challenges. Unlike the NBA you can't make a move at the trade deadline or pick up a free agent shooter. You go into March with the team you have.

So, what does Roy have as I write this? The game at dook last Saturday --- gut-wrenching loss that it was --- may provide the answers.

1. This is a points-in-the-paint team. On the big stage in Durham, and despite the hype and immense talent of Jahil Okafor, Carolina's front line owned the night. The tandem of Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson put up a combined 36 points and 19 rebounds, to Okafor and Amile Jefferson's combined 29 and 12. Moreover, backups Isiah Hicks and Joel James brought an additional 18 and 8, while dook's bench was, um... Marshall Plumlee (0 and 2). Being an inside-out team takes scoring pressure off the Guards while enabling more open looks from outside at the same time.
The Meeks/Johnson/Hicks three-man post rotation is UNC's biggest strength and if big Joel can have more games like that you can add a fourth member, and top the depth off with reliable spot duty from Jackson Simmons. This is the premier offensive post tandem in the country, and when they play with Roy's "sense of urgency" on defense, they can be the best of the best.

2. J.P. Tokoto can be a difference-maker. This one is predicated on an "if"... and it's a big one: If Tokoto plays the role he is best suited for. He did that for the most part Saturday and, ask dook, he was a nightmare for them. This happened because he played most of the night in his best role of athletic 3-man, i.e., slashing, attacking the rim, rebounding and getting out in transition. Despite not spending much time on the perimeter, he picked up 7 assists to go with his 15 points and 8 rebounds. Add in his 3 steals and 2 blocks on the other end, and that definitely screams "nightmare". Contrast Saturday with the games where he has spent too much time roaming the perimeter, firing ill-advised passes and outside shots. Justin Jackson is struggling somewhat, but he too can be a difference-maker. His game is one of constant motion with the ability to finish in a variety of ways off the pass and can be an outside threat. He also showed some new toughness on the boards Saturday.
JP is an effective and exciting college 3, and if he embraces that role UNC will be much the better for it. Justin is finding his way, but can also be a vital cog from the wing. Perhaps coming off the bench would be the best fit for him at this point, but his potential to live up to his nickname ("Walking Buckets") is obviously there.

3. The best roles for the Guards seem to have emerged. The idea of living and dying on Marcus Paige is misplaced as the first point above illustrates. This must be an inside-out team, and that fits Carolina's history. However, Guard play is essential. Thus, Carolina's suddenly thin rotation must be utilized to its highest efficiency. Joel Berry is easily the best option at Point and Paige is the best option at the 2. Much of the impressive output from the bigs Saturday was enabled by the spacing and passing angles created with Berry running the show. Marcus and Joel both know how to feed the post. Post players got the ball when and where they wanted it for the most part. The importance of that cannot be overstated. Those passing angles suddenly went away when Nate Britt took over the Point. Britt's contributions were best when he was off the ball. He did pretty well at the 2 Saturday when he was in for long stretches with Berry (due of Paige's foul trouble).
UNC is a better team offensively and defensively when Berry is on the floor. Berry and Paige should be the go-to backcourt, with Berry as the primary PG. If Joel is not in then Marcus should be run the Point. Britt can be an effective backup, but is better not being the primary ball-handler.

4. Carolina must be a transition team. That has always been UNC's bread-and-butter and it starts with strong defense and board control. The Wes Unseld outlet passes from Meeks were a thing of beauty Saturday. It also helps to have Guards on the floor to run, and a 3-man to help control the defensive glass. Being good in transition also creates easy post entries off the Secondary Break, as well as uncontested 3s.

This team has the potential to make a big run if they can make the best use of what Roy has to work with. If they do then this bunch has Final Four potential. However, if UNC doesn't make the best use of its personnel and roles then they will be fortunate to make it out of a sub-regional. Definitely a delicate balance.


This post was edited on 2/20 3:57 PM by gary-7

You & I are definitely on the same sheet of music and not just limited in scope to our long standing position on Joel Berry. I really appreciated Jay Bilas hammerring the point that you echo about JP. Folks have been tuff on JP, I have at times as well but have maintained that JP has to play more inside than out. His value as an "atheletic" wing crashing the boards can not be over stated. Just because he can play outside and at times be very effective does not mean that is where he best helps this team. Jp rebounding the ball or sking up to tip it back to a team mate, lookiing for those base line cuts, little dish offs to bigs, mid range jumpers. Hanging out around the 3pt arch JP is NOT a factor defenses need to respect, you dare him to shoot from distance but he becomes a big time factor when he is closer in and playing the 3 is where he excels closer in.

JP at the 3 tips domino's, it means Jackson either plays at the 2 or comes off the bench, that could not be an easier decision now could it, means Jackson comes off the bench. That leaves you how to handle the 1 & 2 and you have to ask, what player do we have that best fits the PG role right now today, we not talking next year, we not talking last year, we are talking right now today.

This makes you have to ask, what are the responsibilities of UNC PGs in our scheme? Well first you must handle the ball, while Joel does need work as a ball handler I don't see a lot of casual ball handling from him, dribbles that get away without defenses forcing it, lazy passes across poached passing lanes, not reading the court. Most important I would submit that right now today Joel is the best defensive PG we have, what he lacks in experience he more than makes up for is will to work. In both of his 2 games back from that injury I have seen Joel steal the ball when his defensive assignment tried top cross over their dribble in front of him, one was a clean steal and the other was a tie up jump ball but we saw that twice in consecutive games, how often have you seen that from our other PGs? What Joel is not is flashy, he is really very simple & basic, force something to happen by taking the ball north & south either with the dribble or the pass but windshield wipers are for cars, not offensive sets.

Me, I see a young Ray Felton in Joel Berry with the difference being the ball was put in Ray's hands and he made our primary PG day 1, that has not been the case for Joel. Roy made the decision to start Jackson and tip the domino's in another direction, forced JP out of position IMO, did not allow Berry the court time a frosh UNC PG needs to get comfortable were the trade offs. I am not saying Jackson should not be playing, I am only saying he should not be the starter at the wing today. I wanted him coming off the bench backing up JP and I wanted Pinson backing up Marcus at the 2 and of course I wanted Nate backing
up Joel at the point.

Since coming back Berry has recieved starter minutes, he has not begun the games but he is now getting many more minutes than he was early season. I want to see the kid finally get the starting nod because I think it is important to set the right tone for the game from the very beginning whistle & maybe not have to dig out of the holes allowing 3pt shooters to have easy wide open looks early in games.

Consider this, how often have back courts this season get flat out torched us, they reign treys all over us, go back & look at the box scores of guards we have played this season, it isn't pretty, it is a bit like our football team playing defense last season, we could hurt ya on offense but you killed us on the defensive side, it has been the same for this basketball team and that has to be addressed or we wil run in to a hot shooting team that hits the WIDE OPEN TREYS WE HAVE BEEN ALLOWING, no matter what hand they shoot them with. You let a shooter get in to his groove early on and the basket becomers like the ocean even for well contested shots, the key is to not allow him to get off in the first place. The key is to stop Ty Jones & Quinn Cook early, stop the Louisville back court early, stop the ND back court early, stop the wuffie guards early, today it is stop the GT guards early. If they are not allowed to feast on wide open looks early those well contested late shots don't drop as often. Nate Britt and frankly Marcus are not stopping those wide open looks, the far better option to is the combination of Marcus and Joel.

Start Joel now and by the next duke game you will see a much sharper UNC team take the floor, one that I don't think duke is ready for. Don't and the results will be similar to what we saw wed night, their back court will torch us again.

 

[gary-7]

Originally posted by BillyL:

Originally posted by gary-7:

Originally posted by BillyL:

My guess is that Roy doesn't have the same confidence in Berry that he has in Britt.

...and thus the error in judgement.

Hindsight is always 20-20, Gary . .

Monday morning quarterbacking is just all too easy . . you know, woulda, coulda, shoulda.

 

[gary-7]

Originally posted by DSouthr:

You & I are definitely on the same sheet of music and not just limited in scope to our long standing position on Joel Berry. I really appreciated Jay Bilas hammerring the point that you echo about JP. Folks have been tuff on JP, I have at times as well but have maintained that JP has to play more inside than out. His value as an "atheletic" wing crashing the boards can not be over stated. Just because he can play outside and at times be very effective does not mean that is where he best helps this team. Jp rebounding the ball or sking up to tip it back to a team mate, lookiing for those base line cuts, little dish offs to bigs, mid range jumpers. Hanging out around the 3pt arch JP is NOT a factor defenses need to respect, you dare him to shoot from distance but he becomes a big time factor when he is closer in and playing the 3 is where he excels closer in.

JP at the 3 tips domino's, it means Jackson either plays at the 2 or comes off the bench, that could not be an easier decision now could it, means Jackson comes off the bench. That leaves you how to handle the 1 & 2 and you have to ask, what player do we have that best fits the PG role right now today, we not talking next year, we not talking last year, we are talking right now today.

This makes you have to ask, what are the responsibilities of UNC PGs in our scheme? Well first you must handle the ball, while Joel does need work as a ball handler I don't see a lot of casual ball handling from him, dribbles that get away without defenses forcing it, lazy passes across poached passing lanes, not reading the court. Most important I would submit that right now today Joel is the best defensive PG we have, what he lacks in experience he more than makes up for is will to work. In both of his 2 games back from that injury I have seen Joel steal the ball when his defensive assignment tried top cross over their dribble in front of him, one was a clean steal and the other was a tie up jump ball but we saw that twice in consecutive games, how often have you seen that from our other PGs? What Joel is not is flashy, he is really very simple & basic, force something to happen by taking the ball north & south either with the dribble or the pass but windshield wipers are for cars, not offensive sets.

Me, I see a young Ray Felton in Joel Berry with the difference being the ball was put in Ray's hands and he made our primary PG day 1, that has not been the case for Joel. Roy made the decision to start Jackson and tip the domino's in another direction, forced JP out of position IMO, did not allow Berry the court time a frosh UNC PG needs to get comfortable were the trade offs. I am not saying Jackson should not be playing, I am only saying he should not be the starter at the wing today. I wanted him coming off the bench backing up JP and I wanted Pinson backing up Marcus at the 2 and of course I wanted Nate backing
up Joel at the point.

Since coming back Berry has recieved starter minutes, he has not begun the games but he is now getting many more minutes than he was early season. I want to see the kid finally get the starting nod because I think it is important to set the right tone for the game from the very beginning whistle & maybe not have to dig out of the holes allowing 3pt shooters to have easy wide open looks early in games.

Consider this, how often have back courts this season get flat out torched us, they reign treys all over us, go back & look at the box scores of guards we have played this season, it isn't pretty, it is a bit like our football team playing defense last season, we could hurt ya on offense but you killed us on the defensive side, it has been the same for this basketball team and that has to be addressed or we wil run in to a hot shooting team that hits the WIDE OPEN TREYS WE HAVE BEEN ALLOWING, no matter what hand they shoot them with. You let a shooter get in to his groove early on and the basket becomers like the ocean even for well contested shots, the key is to not allow him to get off in the first place. The key is to stop Ty Jones & Quinn Cook early, stop the Louisville back court early, stop the ND back court early, stop the wuffie guards early, today it is stop the GT guards early. If they are not allowed to feast on wide open looks early those well contested late shots don't drop as often. Nate Britt and frankly Marcus are not stopping those wide open looks, the far better option to is the combination of Marcus and Joel.

Start Joel now and by the next duke game you will see a much sharper UNC team take the floor, one that I don't think duke is ready for. Don't and the results will be similar to what we saw wed night, their back court will torch us again.

Dave, I cannot disagree with a word of that, other than my belief that Nate needs to play off the ball when he's in. I thought in pre-season that JB needed to start from day 1 (the way Jones has at dook) and get his feet wet early to pay dividends, um... now. But then, his groin staring acting up back in December anyway, so it may have been a moot point.

The good news is it's pretty clear he is back to near 100% now, and it's also clear that he needs to be starting and playing 25-30 minutes a game and running the show out there. Give him the keys and let Roy show confidence in him and you'll see a lot more offensive production out of him as well. Berry has the tools to be a scorer as well as facilitator. He can score off the drive and has the potential to be a very legit 3-point threat --- something we badly need.