Bracketology with Joe Lunardi
- Thread starter Steat
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We're a game ahead of Louisville and Duke. Each of those teams has a slightly easier final stretch than ours, but neither has a cakewalk.
Best guess is that we tie for 1st, but sole ownership of 1st or slipping to 2nd are only slightly less plausible outcomes.
Right now, Pomeroy projects a UNC-Lvl tie - with 13-5 records - and a 3-way for 3rd place among Duke, Notre Dame and FSU with 12-6 records. UVa in 6th at 11-7 with a good gap between them and he rest of the conference.
Should make ACCT seeding fun. If we tie for 1st, we probably get the 2nd seed in the ACCT (because we will probably have lost to either Louisville or Duke, or both).
That projected gap between UVa and everybody else could reduce the number of ACC teams in the NCAAT. I mean how do you pick among a crowd of teams that are 9-9 in conference, assuming none of them wins the ACCT? It's possible that only 1 or 2 will even have 20 wins.
Best guess is that we tie for 1st, but sole ownership of 1st or slipping to 2nd are only slightly less plausible outcomes.
Right now, Pomeroy projects a UNC-Lvl tie - with 13-5 records - and a 3-way for 3rd place among Duke, Notre Dame and FSU with 12-6 records. UVa in 6th at 11-7 with a good gap between them and he rest of the conference.
Should make ACCT seeding fun. If we tie for 1st, we probably get the 2nd seed in the ACCT (because we will probably have lost to either Louisville or Duke, or both).
That projected gap between UVa and everybody else could reduce the number of ACC teams in the NCAAT. I mean how do you pick among a crowd of teams that are 9-9 in conference, assuming none of them wins the ACCT? It's possible that only 1 or 2 will even have 20 wins.
I would jump up and down for hours if this is the way the brackets looked in 3 weeks!!!!!!
Depends on who we lose to in the ACCT. If it's Duke or Louisville, they probably get the #1.
I'm going to tweak that a bit and say if either UNC/Louisville/Duke win the ACC tournament that would get you a number one seed. They never give the regular season enough credit and the ACC tournament will have just concluded.
This!
Heaven forbid he have another thread, what will happen if we get to many?
Will the message board just stop working?
Will the Heels be issued a personal foul in the next game for excessive use of threads?
Will you get mad and stop posting?
What is the issue?
Jesus Christ!!!!!!!!!
Rant over!
Win the regular season outright and we'll get a #1 seed. And to win the ACC regular season, we have to win the next 4 games. It's as simple as that.
I agree, just when the next 4 games for no doubt. Hopefully we have a 2 game lead over Louisville after tonight, and when Duke loses to Florida State next Tuesday
UCLA doesn't defend well enough. I don't think they make the regional final in that bracket.
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I agree, just when the next 4 games for no doubt. Hopefully we have a 2 game lead over Louisville after tonight, and when Duke loses to Florida State next Tuesday
Dook is gonna have their hands full tonight. IMO they are more likely to lose tonight than they are at home to FSU next week.
I don't think that at SYR or at Miami is a cakewalk for Dook. Miami has been playing pretty well lately. They have decent athletes, and their coach will have them ready. a win for the U over Dook would guarantee them a slot in the tourney, and likely as high as even a 5/6 seed.
I don't understand how they're a 4 seed. They're ranked #5 in the country (a few spots ahead of UNC), and theyre the #4 in our bracket?
I think the way teams are ranked week to week is sort of screwed up. Its like - if you are ranked somewhere (say #5), and you win one or two games in the week, no way can you move down, even if the teams you beat are cupcakes, and teams right behind you in rankings have better quality wins. At least that how it seems to work, to me. Otherwise.... why would the Heels be a 1 seed for now, top 4 in RPI / BPI, but floating around the #8 ranking? And how could you put Gonzaga ahead of Kansas or Nova, (even though these teams have lost some games).
Regardless, Hark, you are right that UCLA as a 4 seed is insane. They should be a low 2 seed, 3 seed at worst. Among UCLA, Oregon, and Arizona, it will be interesting to see who wins the Pac 12. I know the conference drops drastically after those three, but whoever prevails out of those three likely deserves a 1 seed.
USA latest....love the Heels bracket. Click image to enlarge.
I tend to agree but anytime you have to play an Izzo coached team in the 2nd round of the NCAA that could be scary.
Given Roy's record against Izzo, I would absolutely love to face him in the tournament.
During halftime of the Duke-FSU game last night, they had some guy talking with Seth Greenberg and Jay Williams and he was saying "Let's assume Duke and UK are both 2 seeds" and I was like "Why are we assuming Duke gets a 2 seed?" To me, Duke's max seed is a 3 and that's with winning out through the ACCT. They currently have 7 losses, if they lose to us, that's 8 regular season, and if they lose in the ACCT as well, that's 9 all before the tournament. If they lose 9 games, how can you have them as a top 4 seed? They will have them as a 4 if they do lose 9 games, but if they lose 9, they shouldn't be higher than a 5 in my book.
Good call. Lunardi has them at a 4 seed most recently, which is about right IMO, sure shouldn't be higher than a 4 even after last night. And maybe they have a couple more losses on their schedule before Selection Sunday like you said.
That guy you mentioned must be assuming Dook is going to win out. If they don't win on Saturday, is he ready to make the 3-6 ACC teams that will have equal or better ACC records and / or have split with Dook, as 1 or 2 seeds as well? Not sure how that can work. There can only be 4 2 seeds. I don't see how Dook leapfrogs enough teams to be one of them.
Last year committee ignored a few losses which Cuse incurred with Boeheim out, committee may do same this year with Duke losing K for a month. Maybe that's how they get a 2 seed.
Nobody has Dook as a 2 seed right now. Lunardi has them at a 4; USAToday and CBS have them at a 3. But they are 10-5 verse top 50 teams, which is actually pretty solid.
If they lose their next two games, I could see them dropping to a 5 seed. But if they beat us and another ranked team, I think they could potentially vault up to a 2 seed. If Louisville beats WF on the road and the rest of the home teams prevail, the final ACC Standings will look like this (in order of seeding for the tournament):
1. UNC, 14-4
2. Louisville, 13-5
3. Florida State, 12-6
4. Notre Dame, 12-6
5. Virginia Tech, 11-7
6. Dook, 11-7
7. Virginia, 11-7
8. Syracuse, 10-8
9. Miami, 10-8
Crazy logjam for sure. I doubt the home teams will win all these games, but I suppose this is the most realistic scenario. If this holds form, I like our potential semifinal matchup verse Notre Dame or VT. I think we match up well against both teams. Syracuse or Miami in the quarterfinals might be a little more daunting.. Dook would have to face Wake in the 6/11 matchup - that would be no gimme. After that, they would see FSU again. They're certainly capable of winning both of these games, but I feel good about it knowing that they're depth always seems to limit them in postseason tournaments.
I'm expecting a UNC-Louisville matchup for the ACC Tournament Title. Go Heels!
If they lose their next two games, I could see them dropping to a 5 seed. But if they beat us and another ranked team, I think they could potentially vault up to a 2 seed. If Louisville beats WF on the road and the rest of the home teams prevail, the final ACC Standings will look like this (in order of seeding for the tournament):
1. UNC, 14-4
2. Louisville, 13-5
3. Florida State, 12-6
4. Notre Dame, 12-6
5. Virginia Tech, 11-7
6. Dook, 11-7
7. Virginia, 11-7
8. Syracuse, 10-8
9. Miami, 10-8
Crazy logjam for sure. I doubt the home teams will win all these games, but I suppose this is the most realistic scenario. If this holds form, I like our potential semifinal matchup verse Notre Dame or VT. I think we match up well against both teams. Syracuse or Miami in the quarterfinals might be a little more daunting.. Dook would have to face Wake in the 6/11 matchup - that would be no gimme. After that, they would see FSU again. They're certainly capable of winning both of these games, but I feel good about it knowing that they're depth always seems to limit them in postseason tournaments.
I'm expecting a UNC-Louisville matchup for the ACC Tournament Title. Go Heels!
It wasn't Lunardi who said it, I didn't recognize the guy, but he was discussing Duke and UK and said "Let's assume they both get 2 seeds." I'm just saying I wouldn't assume they get a 2, and if the scenario you propose with those seeds plays out, there is no way in my book that they should get higher than a 4 and I feel generous giving them that.
If that's the case, every coach's strategy should be:
Step 1: Get a top 10 preseason ranking
Step 2: Coach the cupcake games the first couple weeks of the season
Step 3: Take a leave of absence before the first game that you might lose
Step 4: Return the day before Selection Sunday. Regardless of team record, you're assured a 1 or 2 seed!
Today's Bracketology from Lunardi
South Region:
1 Carolina
2 Kentucky
3 Arizona
4 West Virginia
West Region
1 Gonzaga
2 Oregon
3 Butler
4 FSU
Midwest
1 Kansas
2 Louisville
3 UCLA
4 UVa
East
1 Villanova
2 Baylor
3 Duke
4 Florida
Am I wearing blue shaded glasses or holy crap does that not put 3 other massively dangerous teams in the Heels' bracket?
Some oddities I see:
West: Gonzaga would get Oregon as their #2, but wouldn't see them until the Regional Final. Butler as their #3 though and UCLA gets packed off to the Midwest Region.
Midwest: Lunardi did the Jayhawks no favors with ANY of their other top 4.
East: Duke a 3 seed?!? COME ON MAN! #4 at best and a #5 in my eyes! Baylor is dangerous, but again they wouldn't meet until the regional final. Notre Dame as their #5 could be dangerous considering their pace and space philosophy.
South Region:
1 Carolina
2 Kentucky
3 Arizona
4 West Virginia
West Region
1 Gonzaga
2 Oregon
3 Butler
4 FSU
Midwest
1 Kansas
2 Louisville
3 UCLA
4 UVa
East
1 Villanova
2 Baylor
3 Duke
4 Florida
Am I wearing blue shaded glasses or holy crap does that not put 3 other massively dangerous teams in the Heels' bracket?
Some oddities I see:
West: Gonzaga would get Oregon as their #2, but wouldn't see them until the Regional Final. Butler as their #3 though and UCLA gets packed off to the Midwest Region.
Midwest: Lunardi did the Jayhawks no favors with ANY of their other top 4.
East: Duke a 3 seed?!? COME ON MAN! #4 at best and a #5 in my eyes! Baylor is dangerous, but again they wouldn't meet until the regional final. Notre Dame as their #5 could be dangerous considering their pace and space philosophy.
And just to add to that, this iteration of Lunardi's bracket puts the #'s 3, 4, 7, and 20 teams according to KenPom all in the same corner of the big bracket.
South and Midwest get ruined in that scenario but a lot will change in the next week. That would be ridiculous.
So the best 1 best 2 best 3 and best 4 all in the same bracket. Lmfao.
Yep, that's pretty much what my line of thinking was as well. I know thing will shake out during conference tournaments, but geez, just to make that projection at ANY POINT is almost laughable.
