Celebrity Death Pool - Round 11
- Thread starter Hark_The_Sound_2010
- Start date
Soccer superstar Johann Cryuff died today. Only 68. He was such a boss that he has a skill move named after him -- the Cryuff or Cryuff turn (you can compare it to a crossover or spin move in basketball).
Current market quotes (as of 16:10 CDT 3/24/2016)
GHWBush - I bid $5 x1 / no offers yet
Fidel Castro - I bid $5 x1 / no offers yet
Kirk Douglas - I bid $5 x1 / no offers yet
Charlie Sheen - Hark bids $0.50 x? / I offer 10x $5
All others - Hark bids $0.50 x? / no offers yet
Confirmed Trades
jcolucci sold 1 Hugh Hefner to Hark
Hark sold 1 Valerie Harper to jcolucci
To be fair, trades are not considered done until counterparty confirms.
THN...just think about who you think will go first...you don't have to own them, just someone in the field. If you really think you're right, then advertise a bid to buy them...obviously at a big discount to the pool payout.
Whoever sells that person to you will owe you the pool payout. For example since i paid $5 to Hark for Valerie Harper, if she goes first, Hark will owe me the payout. Now whoever owns her in the pool will get the pool payout as expected, but hark also owes me for the person he sold me if it pays off. So your big exposure is really on the sell side, not buy side. I'm simply out an extra $5 if Valerie Harper doesn't go first - in addition to the $10 I'm out for buying my original picks in the pool.
GHWBush - I bid $5 x1 / no offers yet
Fidel Castro - I bid $5 x1 / no offers yet
Kirk Douglas - I bid $5 x1 / no offers yet
Charlie Sheen - Hark bids $0.50 x? / I offer 10x $5
All others - Hark bids $0.50 x? / no offers yet
Confirmed Trades
jcolucci sold 1 Hugh Hefner to Hark
Hark sold 1 Valerie Harper to jcolucci
To be fair, trades are not considered done until counterparty confirms.
THN...just think about who you think will go first...you don't have to own them, just someone in the field. If you really think you're right, then advertise a bid to buy them...obviously at a big discount to the pool payout.
Whoever sells that person to you will owe you the pool payout. For example since i paid $5 to Hark for Valerie Harper, if she goes first, Hark will owe me the payout. Now whoever owns her in the pool will get the pool payout as expected, but hark also owes me for the person he sold me if it pays off. So your big exposure is really on the sell side, not buy side. I'm simply out an extra $5 if Valerie Harper doesn't go first - in addition to the $10 I'm out for buying my original picks in the pool.
So how does this correlate to options trading? And what are derivatives?
I need a primer from J and Hark
My bid x's on the "all others" can be 5. Also note I have offers out of 1x $8 on each person on Abra Cadaver! (my squad): David Rockefeller, Bob Barker, Prince Philip, Stephen Hawking, Bobby Doerr
THN - do you understand it now? If you like one of our offers (or think our bids are stupid and want to get paid on them) pick those. Or if you would rather throw out new ones do that. Think about it in Expected Value terms. The average candidate has an expected value of $2. If you think someone is more likely to croak than the average person - you'd be willing to buy them for more than $2. If you think someone is less likely to croak first than the average, you'd be willing to sell them for under $2.
So jcolucci essentially is saying he thinks GHWBush, Castro, and Douglas are all roughly 2.5 times more likely to "win" than the average candidate. If you think he's way overrating one of them - you can "offer" him $5 and you'll have a deal. If that person dies first - you owe him $130. If any of the other 64 die first - he owes you $5. I also threw out a bid of $0.50 on everyone. So if you find people that were picked that you think have no chance at being the first to die, you can offer me them for $0.50 and we'll have a deal. You can pick multiple people too - so if you find 10 people you think have no chance at dying first - combine them all, and I owe you $5 if you're right and none die first. But if any one of those 10 does - you'll owe me the $130. So my bid of 50 cents is terrible for the favorites in the group - like Kirk Douglas. But it could be a fair offer for the last few picks that are considered underdogs. I merely tossed that out there to start the action (or at least try to). And my offers of $8 on everyone on my squad is there so that if someone really likes one of my people, I can make a quick $8 and not actually lose anything even if it hits (I'll win the pool, but will in turn owe it to whoever bought them from me).
The whole "x1 and x10" and all that, means that the person submitting the bid/offer is willing to take up to that many "contracts" - so at x10 - you can make the deal at 1 contract if you want. But if you really like it you can make it for 5 contracts or even 10 contracts. Which would mean that the $5 becomes $50, and the $130 becomes $1300.
If you don't like anything that's currently on the board - throw something else out there. You think Jimmy Carter has an above average chance at "winning"? throw out a bid of $3 and see if anyone bites. Think everyone is too high on Bob Dole? Throw out an offer of $4 and see if anyone bites. Just remember - with bids you can only lose the bid price (but have a strong chance to lose it) but can gain the pool price of $130 (and have a small chance of gaining it) . And with offers you can only gain the offer price (and have strong odds to gain it) but can possibly lose the pool price $130 (though a small chance of this).
I mean.......this is why I majored in journalism at UNC. I'm just not smart enough for this kind of shit. I vaguely understand it, but it seems like an awfully huge risk just to make a fraction of what you could lose.
If you're risk averse, then only submit bids. If you bid $3 for someone - and you're wrong, you're out $3. If you're right, you win $130.
Not to completely blow your mind, but you actually technically already have $2 bids on all 5 of your people by entering the pool in the first place.
The Garry Shandling Show had a quirky and charming sense of humor. Really enjoyed that show a lot. Also had an awesome theme song.
They're still yours. All of the above mumbo jumbo are side bets.
I don't know that options on a death pool would be good example but will try to explain what an option is.
An option is simply that. An option buyer pays an option seller some amount for the RIGHT to purchase or sell a specified number of shares (contract size) of a particular security (underlying security) at a specified price (strike or exercise price) for a limited period of time (up to and including an "expiration date").
For example, lets say you think stock XYZ which is currently trading at $50/share was going to go up over next month or so and you are interested in owning it. Buying 100 shares would cost you $5000 right?..but say you don't have money to buy yet... waiting on a bonus in December or something and feel you're going to miss out. You could instead buy an option to purchase (a CALL option). Now say XYZ call options with a strike price of $50 that expire in December are trading at $2.00/ contract (100 shares). You could pay $2 x 100 =$200 for the right to buy 100 shares of XYZ stock in December at $50. XYZ needs to essentially be at $50 +$2 = $52 before you start making money.
On the counter side, say I bought 100 shares XYZ stock at $40/share several months ago and at current price of $50, I have unrealized gain of $10/share or 25%. I could sell the stock at $50 now...or can sell you the call option for $200 which commits me to selling you the stock at $50/share in December. I've essentially sold at $52! I'll pocket the $200 you give me now and will get my $5000 in December. If stock goes above $52, I kinda lose out in that I could've made more.
BUT...If XYZ goes down to say $45, you certainly won't want to buy it at $50, so you lose your option purchase price of $200. I'll get to keep your $200 but missed out selling my shares at $50 and still own 100 shares XYZ.
An option is simply that. An option buyer pays an option seller some amount for the RIGHT to purchase or sell a specified number of shares (contract size) of a particular security (underlying security) at a specified price (strike or exercise price) for a limited period of time (up to and including an "expiration date").
For example, lets say you think stock XYZ which is currently trading at $50/share was going to go up over next month or so and you are interested in owning it. Buying 100 shares would cost you $5000 right?..but say you don't have money to buy yet... waiting on a bonus in December or something and feel you're going to miss out. You could instead buy an option to purchase (a CALL option). Now say XYZ call options with a strike price of $50 that expire in December are trading at $2.00/ contract (100 shares). You could pay $2 x 100 =$200 for the right to buy 100 shares of XYZ stock in December at $50. XYZ needs to essentially be at $50 +$2 = $52 before you start making money.
On the counter side, say I bought 100 shares XYZ stock at $40/share several months ago and at current price of $50, I have unrealized gain of $10/share or 25%. I could sell the stock at $50 now...or can sell you the call option for $200 which commits me to selling you the stock at $50/share in December. I've essentially sold at $52! I'll pocket the $200 you give me now and will get my $5000 in December. If stock goes above $52, I kinda lose out in that I could've made more.
BUT...If XYZ goes down to say $45, you certainly won't want to buy it at $50, so you lose your option purchase price of $200. I'll get to keep your $200 but missed out selling my shares at $50 and still own 100 shares XYZ.
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always thought it was oliver purnell
Remember how Purnell always made that little triangle with his thumbs and index fingers at Clemson? I swear they ran whatever defense that signified every damn possession because he was always making that sign.
Should've drafted five wrestlers. Problem is, I prolly can't name five wrestlers.
I feel like this is going to be pretty anticlimactic when it does end. That whole tedious draft process, and all this waiting, and then it'll just be, "Oh, THN won. I guess that's it."
I mean you guys aren't even trash talking or anything.
I mean you guys aren't even trash talking or anything.
It's because it's stuck up in the pinned threads section that nobody ever looks at.
I did predict this would be about a 3 month process when we started, and it's been barely over a month - so I'm guessing the waiting will continue for a little bit.
The draft process was definitely painfully slow, but I think we'll devise a quicker way for subsequent rounds - be it through keepers or submitting lists to me, and me submitting my list elsewhere to prove I'm not gaming the system (which was the process I had recommended the first time around).
The draft process was definitely painfully slow, but I think we'll devise a quicker way for subsequent rounds - be it through keepers or submitting lists to me, and me submitting my list elsewhere to prove I'm not gaming the system (which was the process I had recommended the first time around).
Basically, @Hark_The_Sound_2010 sucks at running contests and we'll stick to the experts running things like @BillyL with his regular season college football spread picks and my CFB bowl picks contest.
(Okay, so my bowl pick contest has been squirrelly the past couple years because I've gone on international vacations. I'm sorry I've failed you OOTB. I'm as bad as Hark.)
(Okay, so my bowl pick contest has been squirrelly the past couple years because I've gone on international vacations. I'm sorry I've failed you OOTB. I'm as bad as Hark.)
My bad. I knew I should have flown to everyone's houses and prodded them to make the picks in a more timely manner. And then a week afterwards picked one of the 65 candidates at random to go and execute them myself to hurry this thing along. Next time around I'll know better - trial and error.
It seems like I can't really talk crap about any of my picks - I just googled them all and they seem to be all doing relatively fine. Rockefeller hosted some dinner, they're planning Prince Philip's 95th bday party which is June (so they must think he'll make it til then), Hawking just gave a speech (well, I guess his computer gave the speech but you know what I mean), Bob Barker was well enough to go on a tirade about some dog chaining law or something, Bobby Doerr turned 98 and seems to be trucking along fine.
Although I now have a mutual interest in Hugh Hefner along with @heelmanwilm since I bought the option from @jcolucci . His younger brother, Keith Hefner, just died at age 87 last week... so that could be promising.
Although I now have a mutual interest in Hugh Hefner along with @heelmanwilm since I bought the option from @jcolucci . His younger brother, Keith Hefner, just died at age 87 last week... so that could be promising.
My degrees of separation to royalty contribution:
Prince Philip has read and complimented my work.
A copy of the Greenville Times was sent to him by one of the artists that I profiled for the magazine, whose wife previously worked with the royal family's horses and still keeps in touch - by letter. So I have seen a letter written by Prince Philip on letterhead from Balmoral Castle, commenting on that story as well as another one I wrote in the same issue.
This story sounds cooler when I say the King of England instead of Prince Philip but I guess that's technically inaccurate. The dude is married to the Queen but doesn't get to call himself King. Reckon he's probably not sweating it too much while he's lounging at one estate or another.
Prince Philip has read and complimented my work.
A copy of the Greenville Times was sent to him by one of the artists that I profiled for the magazine, whose wife previously worked with the royal family's horses and still keeps in touch - by letter. So I have seen a letter written by Prince Philip on letterhead from Balmoral Castle, commenting on that story as well as another one I wrote in the same issue.
This story sounds cooler when I say the King of England instead of Prince Philip but I guess that's technically inaccurate. The dude is married to the Queen but doesn't get to call himself King. Reckon he's probably not sweating it too much while he's lounging at one estate or another.
Well if you send him any more mail, anthrax that shit so I can win this thing. TIA
By the way, my Google news feed now invariably features stories about Beverly Cleary's upcoming 100th birthday celebration in May. Seems I've searched her enough to alert the authorities.
Yo picks so healthy they belong in Whole Foods
Yo picks so healthy they give the doctors check ups
My picks so old their birth certificates say "expired"
My picks so old when they were in school there wasn't such a thing as history class
#roasted
