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Ole Miss

NathanFielder

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Mar 18, 2024
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I think it's a really interesting matchup. Ole Miss doesn't have too much size. They play a lot of guys. 9 guys averaging 10+ MPG (I know people on this board love that kind of depth).

Chris Beard is known for a few things. Defensively, he has a "no middle" defense where they don't want the ball getting to the middle inside the 3PT arc. As a result, they allow a lot of 3PA. This season 44% of the opponent's FGs are 3-point attempts. They've played faster this season than Beard teams usually do. At Texas Tech, Beard's teams typically were in the 300s in pace. This season they're 132.

- There are a few things they don't do at all. They don't care about offensive rebounds. I think Beard prioritizes transition defense over attacking the boards. They rank 312th in offensive rebound rate.
- They do not turn the ball over. 3rd lowest turnover rate in the country.
- They force a lot of turnovers. 32nd best defensive turnover rate in the country.

- They do foul an obscene amount. Opponents have almost a 40% FT rate. Probably an indication of why they play so many players.

I think UNC is more talented. I do think Beard is a better tactical coach and is a better all around game planner than Hubert is.

The game will probably come down to whether UNC is making 3s and if they can protect the ball. This is a game where UNC might get up 25+ 3s in a game without garbage time minutes. Also, if Ole Miss fouls a lot, obviously FTs become a part of the equation.

They're pretty average shooting from each level so it's not a scary matchup IMO. I do think it's a coin flip game. But a game UNC has the better talent IMO.

It's a much worse overall matchup than San Diego State. Ole Miss has some skill on its roster. But I think UNC will have their chances to win the game.
 
I think it's a really interesting matchup. Ole Miss doesn't have too much size. They play a lot of guys. 9 guys averaging 10+ MPG (I know people on this board love that kind of depth).

Chris Beard is known for a few things. Defensively, he has a "no middle" defense where they don't want the ball getting to the middle inside the 3PT arc. As a result, they allow a lot of 3PA. This season 44% of the opponent's FGs are 3-point attempts. They've played faster this season than Beard teams usually do. At Texas Tech, Beard's teams typically were in the 300s in pace. This season they're 132.

- There are a few things they don't do at all. They don't care about offensive rebounds. I think Beard prioritizes transition defense over attacking the boards. They rank 312th in offensive rebound rate.
- They do not turn the ball over. 3rd lowest turnover rate in the country.
- They force a lot of turnovers. 32nd best defensive turnover rate in the country.

- They do foul an obscene amount. Opponents have almost a 40% FT rate. Probably an indication of why they play so many players.

I think UNC is more talented. I do think Beard is a better tactical coach and is a better all around game planner than Hubert is.

The game will probably come down to whether UNC is making 3s and if they can protect the ball. This is a game where UNC might get up 25+ 3s in a game without garbage time minutes. Also, if Ole Miss fouls a lot, obviously FTs become a part of the equation.

They're pretty average shooting from each level so it's not a scary matchup IMO. I do think it's a coin flip game. But a game UNC has the better talent IMO.

It's a much worse overall matchup than San Diego State. Ole Miss has some skill on its roster. But I think UNC will have their chances to win the game.
I've watched them maybe 5, 6 times this season, and yes, they play a lotta guys, and yes, they foul... a LOT. In fact, you could say that FOULING is the M.O. of their defense. As I said, they will be even more "physical" than SDSt tried to be. They're not as fundamentally good on-ball defensively as Dutcher's teams, but they do have more offensive talent than SDSt. There's a reason they've been ranked most of the season.

With that said, you are correct that we are more talented, but then they have seldom been the most talented team on the floor. So don't get me wrong, Beard knows what he's doing, although I have never respected the shortcuts he relies on, which includes uglying up a game and attempting to "numb" the refs into letting the mayhem be normalized.

Ole Miss is not a long team, so we'll actually be bigger, but they are indeed deep with 6 guys averaging double figures last game I watched. You will be familiar with their obnoxious PG that they snagged from VaTech (Pedulla) who made All-SEC. He still has no conscience whatsover putting up 3s, and he is their highest volume shooter and leading scorer, while Brakefield is their most dangerous and versatile Forward who I imagine Withers will guard.

You are correct about their defensive scheme, but I don't think we can back away from attacking vertically (as we have of late) and make them foul, which they're more than willing to do.

This raises an interesting issue that has been much-discussed amongst announcers and analysts:
The SEC has morphed into a (sometimes downright ugly) physical league, and their zebras have not been willing to keep that under control. And even their homers have been openly wondering if that has contributed to their relative lack of success in the NCAAT, i.e, the notion that when they run into different refs, that dog doesn't hunt so well.

I'll just say that will be something to watch Friday, and let us hope that manifests itself, because if we get a crew calling like a normal SEC game, we're in for a challenging and bruising night...
 
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Good info and I’ll add that I don’t think we’ll have to, or need to help off of anyone. We definitely don’t leave Pedulla to help anyone! I’ve been to a few of their games this year with local SEC teams being within a few hours and they reach slap and grab with the best of them.
 
So we finally have a team we match up length wise with, now that's different! LOL Thing I notice is they have a LOT of seniors on that team, I counted 10 of them? Been a while since we saw a team give up their offensive board, I don't know that will work out to well for them. They clearly live and die by the trey and we know Padula can get hot but does he remember a guy named Seth Trimble, he may get to know him again.

Our struggles have been teams that could play over the top of us, with bigs yes but with guards that tower over our guards but that will not be the case Fri. Key is for us to have strong communication on our switches so they are not springing out shooters for clean looks. We need to attack the paint, draw the few bigs they have in to foul trouble and cash in at the line. If they elect to clog up the middle and give us the corners, may be a game that Tyson would be really helpful in. They did beat Bama and Tenn, may have beat Ky as well, impressive.

My quick glance saw their impressive wins were in conference wins and not to minimize those because those are very solid teams but there is a different dynamic when you play non-conference foes, you do not know them like you know those in conference teams and players. We have played a lot of SEC teams, in fact we have played all their best teams with the exception of Tenn and Ky. Most teams we have played have tried to play physical against us because we are so smallish, so we are used to that. Missy better pray they get a ref crew that allows a physical game and not call the touch fouls we as well have a lot of experience with.

We got fortunate in that many times the teams that play in the 4 team play in games have to turn around and play again Thursday, we don't play till Friday so we have an extra day to prep and rest. My gut says we win same as it did before SDSU, solid double digits.
 
Missy better pray they get a ref crew that allows a physical game and not call the touch fouls we as well have a lot of experience with.

We got fortunate in that many times the teams that play in the 4 team play in games have to turn around and play again Thursday, we don't play till Friday so we have an extra day to prep and rest. My gut says we win same as it did before SDSU, solid double digits.
Yep, D... the zebras will be a vital factor in this one.
Beard literally tells his guys "we foul here, because they can't call them all".
 
So don't get me wrong, Beard knows what he's doing, although I have never respected the shortcuts he relies on, which includes uglying up a game and attempting to "numb" the refs into letting the mayhem be normalized.

Ole Miss is not a long team, so we'll actually be bigger, but they are indeed deep with 6 guys averaging double figures last game I watched. You will be familiar with their obnoxious PG that they snagged from VaTech (Pedulla) who made All-SEC. He still has no conscience whatsover putting up 3s, and he is their highest volume shooter and leading scorer, while Brakefield is their most dangerous and versatile Forward who I imagine Withers will guard.

You are correct about their defensive scheme, but I don't think we can back away from attacking vertically (as we have of late) and make them foul, which they're more than willing to do.

This raises an interesting issue that has been much-discussed amongst announcers and analysts:
The SEC has morphed into a (sometimes downright ugly) physical league, and their zebras have not been willing to keep that under control. And even their homers have been openly wondering if that has contributed to their relative lack of success in the NCAAT, i.e, the notion that when they run into different refs, that dog doesn't hunt so well.

Ole Miss is not a long team, so we'll actually be bigger, but they are indeed deep with 6 guys averaging double figures last game I watched. You will be familiar with their obnoxious PG that they snagged from VaTech (Pedulla) who made All-SEC. He still has no conscience whatsover putting up 3s, and he is their highest volume shooter and leading scorer, while Brakefield is their most dangerous and versatile Forward who I imagine Withers will guard.

You are correct about their defensive scheme, but I don't think we can back away from attacking vertically (as we have of late) and make them foul, which they're more than willing to do.

This raises an interesting issue that has been much-discussed amongst announcers and analysts:
The SEC has morphed into a (sometimes downright ugly) physical league, and their zebras have not been willing to keep that under control. And even their homers have been openly wondering if that has contributed to their relative lack of success in the NCAAT, i.e, the notion that when they run into different refs, that dog doesn't hunt so well.

I'll just say that will be something to watch Friday, and let us hope that manifests itself, because if we get a crew calling like a normal SEC game, we're in for a challenging and bruising night...
Today's SEC basketball: reviving the spirt of John Thompson-era BE basketball. But I have seen no SEC player the equal of Georgetown's Michael Graham for pure gang-banger style viciousness on a basketball court.
 
Yep, D... the zebras will be a vital factor in this one.
Beard literally tells his guys "we foul here, because they can't call them all".
They could call most of them, and did across most ofnthe college game until the 1980s when John. Thompson and Nolan Richardson led the charge to brandish any ref a racist for calling too many fouls against black players or teams coached by blacks.

So Beard on one level is just telling it as it is now. All kinds of fouls do not get called. Beard did not cause that shift in officiating.
 
Today's SEC basketball: reviving the spirt of John Thompson-era BE basketball. But I have seen no SEC player the equal of Georgetown's Michael Graham for pure gang-banger style viciousness on a basketball court.
Well, that's a pretty danged good reference, but I would certainly put that Baylor bunch we got mugged by just a few years back right up there.

But yeah, the SEC has become a rock-fight league.
 
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They could call most of them, and did across most ofnthe college game until the 1980s when John. Thompson and Nolan Richardson led the charge to brandish any ref a racist for calling too many fouls against black players or teams coached by blacks.

So Beard on one level is just telling it as it is now. All kinds of fouls do not get called. Beard did not cause that shift in officiating.
I would argue Terry Holland and the Rat preceded them, and while Beard is just taking advantage of hoops devolving into hockey, it's still reprehensible.
 
Hopefully, there will be more matchup preview threads in the future so I can test my theory of whether UNC fans on this board think that only UNC plays the acceptable style of basketball in the country. Lol
 
I think the key factor will be keeping the Rebels 3 % under control. Padula is high volume, high % guy. We are familiar with his game, hopefully that pays dividends. His running mate likes to get it up too from behind the arc.

They want to turn you over on dee, other than the 1st 5 minutes of the SD State game, we have limited turnovers. EC will be key in that area.

Not a bad matchup, actually favored with the books as an 11 seed. Dee, and protect the rock.

Get em' fellas !!!!
 
I've watched them maybe 5, 6 times this season, and yes, they play a lotta guys, and yes, they foul... a LOT. In fact, you could say that FOULING is the M.O. of their defense. As I said, they will be even more "physical" than SDSt tried to be. They're not as fundamentally good on-ball defensively as Ducher's teams, but they do have more offensive talent than SDSt. There's a reason they've been ranked most of the season.

With that said, you are correct that we are more talented, but then they have seldom been the most talented team on the floor. So don't get me wrong, Beard knows what he's doing, although I have never respected the shortcuts he relies on, which includes uglying up a game and attempting to "numb" the refs into letting the mayhem be normalized.

Ole Miss is not a long team, so we'll actually be bigger, but they are indeed deep with 6 guys averaging double figures last game I watched. You will be familiar with their obnoxious PG that they snagged from VaTech (Pedulla) who made All-SEC. He still has no conscience whatsover putting up 3s, and he is their highest volume shooter and leading scorer, while Brakefield is their most dangerous and versatile Forward who I imagine Withers will guard.

You are correct about their defensive scheme, but I don't think we can back away from attacking vertically (as we have of late) and make them foul, which they're more than willing to do.

This raises an interesting issue that has been much-discussed amongst announcers and analysts:
The SEC has morphed into a (sometimes downright ugly) physical league, and their zebras have not been willing to keep that under control. And even their homers have been openly wondering if that has contributed to their relative lack of success in the NCAAT, i.e, the notion that when they run into different refs, that dog doesn't hunt so well.

I'll just say that will be something to watch Friday, and let us hope that manifests itself, because if we get a crew calling like a normal SEC game, we're in for a challenging and bruising night...
Damn I didn’t know that had the PG from Va Tech….When I didn’t see him with Va Tech anymore I figured he had graduated….Can’t let him get going…
 
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Hopefully, there will be more matchup preview threads in the future so I can test my theory of whether UNC fans on this board think that only UNC plays the acceptable style of basketball in the country. Lol
I find many styles of play "acceptable". What I have issue with is a team that plays defense by 5 guys holding/hacking every play every time. You can play hard, physical defense without fouling, just takes more effort and discipline. Coaches are not stupid and know the refs generally do not want to be a part of the story. Some coaches exploit this, and encourage their teams to push the boundary to see how much they will get away with.

I prefer a tight whistle the first 8 minutes so the players know what the refs are allowing. Generally players will adapt once they know the limits. The UNC Wake game in the tournament was a W but many on here were complaining about the officiating.
 
I find many styles of play "acceptable". What I have issue with is a team that plays defense by 5 guys holding/hacking every play every time. You can play hard, physical defense without fouling, just takes more effort and discipline. Coaches are not stupid and know the refs generally do not want to be a part of the story. Some coaches exploit this, and encourage their teams to push the boundary to see how much they will get away with.

I prefer a tight whistle the first 8 minutes so the players know what the refs are allowing. Generally players will adapt once they know the limits. The UNC Wake game in the tournament was a W but many on here were complaining about the officiating.
^Common sense, reality and stuff...
 
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I think it's a really interesting matchup. Ole Miss doesn't have too much size. They play a lot of guys. 9 guys averaging 10+ MPG (I know people on this board love that kind of depth).

Chris Beard is known for a few things. Defensively, he has a "no middle" defense where they don't want the ball getting to the middle inside the 3PT arc. As a result, they allow a lot of 3PA. This season 44% of the opponent's FGs are 3-point attempts. They've played faster this season than Beard teams usually do. At Texas Tech, Beard's teams typically were in the 300s in pace. This season they're 132.

- There are a few things they don't do at all. They don't care about offensive rebounds. I think Beard prioritizes transition defense over attacking the boards. They rank 312th in offensive rebound rate.
- They do not turn the ball over. 3rd lowest turnover rate in the country.
- They force a lot of turnovers. 32nd best defensive turnover rate in the country.

- They do foul an obscene amount. Opponents have almost a 40% FT rate. Probably an indication of why they play so many players.

I think UNC is more talented. I do think Beard is a better tactical coach and is a better all around game planner than Hubert is.

The game will probably come down to whether UNC is making 3s and if they can protect the ball. This is a game where UNC might get up 25+ 3s in a game without garbage time minutes. Also, if Ole Miss fouls a lot, obviously FTs become a part of the equation.

They're pretty average shooting from each level so it's not a scary matchup IMO. I do think it's a coin flip game. But a game UNC has the better talent IMO.

It's a much worse overall matchup than San Diego State. Ole Miss has some skill on its roster. But I think UNC will have their chances to win the game.
Carolina only has one player that can orchestrate a win vs the above analysis. Withers, Powell, Lubin are not winning their matchups within Huberts predictable offensive sets. For various reasons, when RJ runs the point(not as much lately as games are lose and go home) it has resulted in lots of dribbling, a dwindling shot clock, defended shot attempts, and little teammate involvement. Carolinas offense has been optimal with the ball in Cadeaus hands making basically all the decisions for the possession. The little guy is elite. Hes a wizard with the ball yet can elevate at the rim and now has been hitting open jumpers. We can live with 3/4 Cadeau turnovers. Overlooked is his tough defensive effort. After these last two games, I believe Hubert is going to let Cadeau take this group as far as it can go.

Hoping Ole Miss stays true to your analysis with defensive pressure on the ball because Cadeaus offense is the only winning offense. The visual I do not want to see is Ole Miss backing off of Cadeau as he enters the frontcourt. That is my biggest concern because doing that keeps the ball out of the middle and bogs down this offense.
 
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Carolina only has one player that can orchestrate a win vs the above analysis. Withers, Powell, Lubin are not winning their matchups within Huberts predictable offensive sets. For various reasons, when RJ runs the point(not as much lately as games are lose and go home) it has resulted in lots of dribbling, a dwindling shot clock, defended shot attempts, and little teammate involvement. Carolinas offense has been optimal with the ball in Cadeaus hands making basically all the decisions for the possession. The little guy is elite. Hes a wizard with the ball yet can elevate at the rim and now has been hitting open jumpers. We can live with 3/4 Cadeau turnovers. Overlooked is his tough defensive effort. After these last two games, I believe Hubert is going to let Cadeau take this group as far as it can go.

Hoping Ole Miss stays true to your analysis with defensive pressure on the ball because Cadeaus offense is the only winning offense. The visual I do not want to see is Ole Miss backing off of Cadeau as he enters the frontcourt. That is my biggest concern because doing that keeps the ball out of the middle and bogs down this offense.
I don't view Cadeau as elite because he doesn't play at an elite level consistently enough. For me, that's the separator of tiers of players. In the NBA, I can count on Nikola Jokic to have an elite impact on every game that he plays so he's a superstar level player. Cadeau has uncommon skills and is a talent. But until he does that consistently for every game, that's at least how I tier players. But he's playing the best basketball of his college career and if he continues, it obviously gives UNC a great opportunity to keep their season going. I repeat, he's playing at a really high level over the past few games. I'm just cautious before I declare anyone elite. That requires being consistently elite.

I think it's a game where UNC is going to have to make some perimeter shots early, even off some bad offense to loosen up the defense.

Offense aside though, if UNC can get stops that will probably be the key. San Diego State could never really set their defense nor their pressure because they didn't make any shots. That's probably the formula for UNC from here on out. Initial shot defense, defensive rebounding, then hope you make some shots offensively.
 
I don't view Cadeau as elite because he doesn't play at an elite level consistently enough. For me, that's the separator of tiers of players. In the NBA, I can count on Nikola Jokic to have an elite impact on every game that he plays so he's a superstar level player. Cadeau has uncommon skills and is a talent. But until he does that consistently for every game, that's at least how I tier players. But he's playing the best basketball of his college career and if he continues, it obviously gives UNC a great opportunity to keep their season going. I repeat, he's playing at a really high level over the past few games. I'm just cautious before I declare anyone elite. That requires being consistently elite.

I think it's a game where UNC is going to have to make some perimeter shots early, even off some bad offense to loosen up the defense.

Offense aside though, if UNC can get stops that will probably be the key. San Diego State could never really set their defense nor their pressure because they didn't make any shots. That's probably the formula for UNC from here on out. Initial shot defense, defensive rebounding, then hope you make some shots offensively.
Fair enough assessment on EC. He’s been killer as of late for sure. I don’t think he has to have double digit numbers to reach his ability every game. He just needs to keep his turnovers and fouls under three or so. Cant play from the bench. Hopefully I believe he’s figuring it out. It’s amazing how everything changes when the ball is going in, especially for him. Not just the scoreboard either. So much opens up for other guys. One thing I do find hilarious is when EC dribbles up top and either runs some clock or getting sideline instruction, he’s setting up or orchestrating. RJ can do the exact same thing and he’s needlessly dribbling. It’s interesting to what people, myself included, look for and perceive.
 
Fair enough assessment on EC. He’s been killer as of late for sure. I don’t think he has to have double digit numbers to reach his ability every game. He just needs to keep his turnovers and fouls under three or so. Cant play from the bench. Hopefully I believe he’s figuring it out. It’s amazing how everything changes when the ball is going in, especially for him. Not just the scoreboard either. So much opens up for other guys. One thing I do find hilarious is when EC dribbles up top and either runs some clock or getting sideline instruction, he’s setting up or orchestrating. RJ can do the exact same thing and he’s needlessly dribbling. It’s interesting to what people, myself included, look for and perceive.
Surely you see a difference right? RJ's dribbling is almost always in an effort to get a shot off. That's not his fault as he is not a PG in any way but is simply a scorer. To my eyes, EC is looking to setup teammates right up until the ball leaves his hands sometimes which has contributed a bit to his shot being inconsistent.

To the broader point I would love to believe that HD has seen the light and will try to keep more movement on offense and EC running the show but at this point I expect a reversion to slow down hero ball in whatever will be the last game of the season.
 
I don't view Cadeau as elite because he doesn't play at an elite level consistently enough. For me, that's the separator of tiers of players. In the NBA, I can count on Nikola Jokic to have an elite impact on every game that he plays so he's a superstar level player. Cadeau has uncommon skills and is a talent. But until he does that consistently for every game, that's at least how I tier players. But he's playing the best basketball of his college career and if he continues, it obviously gives UNC a great opportunity to keep their season going. I repeat, he's playing at a really high level over the past few games. I'm just cautious before I declare anyone elite. That requires being consistently elite.

I think it's a game where UNC is going to have to make some perimeter shots early, even off some bad offense to loosen up the defense.

Offense aside though, if UNC can get stops that will probably be the key. San Diego State could never really set their defense nor their pressure because they didn't make any shots. That's probably the formula for UNC from here on out. Initial shot defense, defensive rebounding, then hope you make some shots offensively.
Im not saying that Cadeau is veteran NBA level elite. Hes just a young sophmore so give him 2 more years and his consistency will be there. He is getting his baptism by fire in carrying this simple offense on his shoulders. Most times when our shooters are truly open, Cadeau has a giant hand in that opening. He is the only player in the lineup that can create for teammates yet finish around the basket. Sure, not automatic but reliable.

Based on your analysis, Im worried we are not afforded the option of pushing the ball(they give potential offensive boards for a set D) and Ole Miss will sluff off Cadeau forcing Carolina to run Huberts offense. Our best chance is for Ole Miss to challenge Cadeau beyond the 3 pt arc. If they jam the middle, its on the others to over achieve in Huberts offense.
 
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I don't view Cadeau as elite because he doesn't play at an elite level consistently enough. For me, that's the separator of tiers of players. In the NBA, I can count on Nikola Jokic to have an elite impact on every game that he plays so he's a superstar level player. Cadeau has uncommon skills and is a talent. But until he does that consistently for every game, that's at least how I tier players. But he's playing the best basketball of his college career and if he continues, it obviously gives UNC a great opportunity to keep their season going. I repeat, he's playing at a really high level over the past few games. I'm just cautious before I declare anyone elite. That requires being consistently elite.

I think it's a game where UNC is going to have to make some perimeter shots early, even off some bad offense to loosen up the defense.

Offense aside though, if UNC can get stops that will probably be the key. San Diego State could never really set their defense nor their pressure because they didn't make any shots. That's probably the formula for UNC from here on out. Initial shot defense, defensive rebounding, then hope you make some shots offensively.

Depends on what you’re looking for. Cadeau’s vision & passing are no doubt elite, that’s not debatable. His decision making, shooting, & temperament could possibly use some refining.
 
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