Ole Miss

[NathanFielder]

I think it's a really interesting matchup. Ole Miss doesn't have too much size. They play a lot of guys. 9 guys averaging 10+ MPG (I know people on this board love that kind of depth).

Chris Beard is known for a few things. Defensively, he has a "no middle" defense where they don't want the ball getting to the middle inside the 3PT arc. As a result, they allow a lot of 3PA. This season 44% of the opponent's FGs are 3-point attempts. They've played faster this season than Beard teams usually do. At Texas Tech, Beard's teams typically were in the 300s in pace. This season they're 132.

- There are a few things they don't do at all. They don't care about offensive rebounds. I think Beard prioritizes transition defense over attacking the boards. They rank 312th in offensive rebound rate.
- They do not turn the ball over. 3rd lowest turnover rate in the country.
- They force a lot of turnovers. 32nd best defensive turnover rate in the country.

- They do foul an obscene amount. Opponents have almost a 40% FT rate. Probably an indication of why they play so many players.

I think UNC is more talented. I do think Beard is a better tactical coach and is a better all around game planner than Hubert is.

The game will probably come down to whether UNC is making 3s and if they can protect the ball. This is a game where UNC might get up 25+ 3s in a game without garbage time minutes. Also, if Ole Miss fouls a lot, obviously FTs become a part of the equation.

They're pretty average shooting from each level so it's not a scary matchup IMO. I do think it's a coin flip game. But a game UNC has the better talent IMO.

It's a much worse overall matchup than San Diego State. Ole Miss has some skill on its roster. But I think UNC will have their chances to win the game.

 

[Bubspub88]

UNC got 3's from five different guys in their regular rotation. If they can have that type of balance and Cadeau can stay on the court then they can be competitive with anyone.

 

[gary-7]

I think it's a really interesting matchup. Ole Miss doesn't have too much size. They play a lot of guys. 9 guys averaging 10+ MPG (I know people on this board love that kind of depth).

Chris Beard is known for a few things. Defensively, he has a "no middle" defense where they don't want the ball getting to the middle inside the 3PT arc. As a result, they allow a lot of 3PA. This season 44% of the opponent's FGs are 3-point attempts. They've played faster this season than Beard teams usually do. At Texas Tech, Beard's teams typically were in the 300s in pace. This season they're 132.

- There are a few things they don't do at all. They don't care about offensive rebounds. I think Beard prioritizes transition defense over attacking the boards. They rank 312th in offensive rebound rate.
- They do not turn the ball over. 3rd lowest turnover rate in the country.
- They force a lot of turnovers. 32nd best defensive turnover rate in the country.

- They do foul an obscene amount. Opponents have almost a 40% FT rate. Probably an indication of why they play so many players.

I think UNC is more talented. I do think Beard is a better tactical coach and is a better all around game planner than Hubert is.

The game will probably come down to whether UNC is making 3s and if they can protect the ball. This is a game where UNC might get up 25+ 3s in a game without garbage time minutes. Also, if Ole Miss fouls a lot, obviously FTs become a part of the equation.

They're pretty average shooting from each level so it's not a scary matchup IMO. I do think it's a coin flip game. But a game UNC has the better talent IMO.

It's a much worse overall matchup than San Diego State. Ole Miss has some skill on its roster. But I think UNC will have their chances to win the game.

I've watched them maybe 5, 6 times this season, and yes, they play a lotta guys, and yes, they foul... a LOT. In fact, you could say that FOULING is the M.O. of their defense. As I said, they will be even more "physical" than SDSt tried to be. They're not as fundamentally good on-ball defensively as Ducher's teams, but they do have more offensive talent than SDSt. There's a reason they've been ranked most of the season.

With that said, you are correct that we are more talented, but then they have seldom been the most talented team on the floor. So don't get me wrong, Beard knows what he's doing, although I have never respected the shortcuts he relies on, which includes uglying up a game and attempting to "numb" the refs into letting the mayhem be normalized.

Ole Miss is not a long team, so we'll actually be bigger, but they are indeed deep with 6 guys averaging double figures last game I watched. You will be familiar with their obnoxious PG that they snagged from VaTech (Pedulla) who made All-SEC. He still has no conscience whatsover putting up 3s, and he is their highest volume shooter and leading scorer, while Brakefield is their most dangerous and versatile Forward who I imagine Withers will guard.

You are correct about their defensive scheme, but I don't think we can back away from attacking vertically (as we have of late) and make them foul, which they're more than willing to do.

This raises an interesting issue that has been much-discussed amongst announcers and analysts:
The SEC has morphed into a (sometimes downright ugly) physical league, and their zebras have not been willing to keep that under control. And even their homers have been openly wondering if that has contributed to their relative lack of success in the NCAAT, i.e, the notion that when they run into different refs, that dog doesn't hunt so well.

I'll just say that will be something to watch Friday, and let us hope that manifests itself, because if we get a crew calling like a normal SEC game, we're in for a challenging and bruising night...

 

[alabamaheel]

Good info and I’ll add that I don’t think we’ll have to, or need to help off of anyone. We definitely don’t leave Pedulla to help anyone! I’ve been to a few of their games this year with local SEC teams being within a few hours and they reach slap and grab with the best of them.

 

[sctarheel30]

I feel like the play in game will be a big help for us. It helped to get any jitters out and some guys that experience. Better to play a game than to practice some time.

 

[DSouthr]

So we finally have a team we match up length wise with, now that's different! LOL Thing I notice is they have a LOT of seniors on that team, I counted 10 of them? Been a while since we saw a team give up their offensive board, I don't know that will work out to well for them. They clearly live and die by the trey and we know Padula can get hot but does he remember a guy named Seth Trimble, he may get to know him again.

Our struggles have been teams that could play over the top of us, with bigs yes but with guards that tower over our guards but that will not be the case Fri. Key is for us to have strong communication on our switches so they are not springing out shooters for clean looks. We need to attack the paint, draw the few bigs they have in to foul trouble and cash in at the line. If they elect to clog up the middle and give us the corners, may be a game that Tyson would be really helpful in. They did beat Bama and Tenn, may have beat Ky as well, impressive.

My quick glance saw their impressive wins were in conference wins and not to minimize those because those are very solid teams but there is a different dynamic when you play non-conference foes, you do not know them like you know those in conference teams and players. We have played a lot of SEC teams, in fact we have played all their best teams with the exception of Tenn and Ky. Most teams we have played have tried to play physical against us because we are so smallish, so we are used to that. Missy better pray they get a ref crew that allows a physical game and not call the touch fouls we as well have a lot of experience with.

We got fortunate in that many times the teams that play in the 4 team play in games have to turn around and play again Thursday, we don't play till Friday so we have an extra day to prep and rest. My gut says we win same as it did before SDSU, solid double digits.

 

[gary-7]

Missy better pray they get a ref crew that allows a physical game and not call the touch fouls we as well have a lot of experience with.

We got fortunate in that many times the teams that play in the 4 team play in games have to turn around and play again Thursday, we don't play till Friday so we have an extra day to prep and rest. My gut says we win same as it did before SDSU, solid double digits.

Yep, D... the zebras will be a vital factor in this one.
Beard literally tells his guys "we foul here, because they can't call them all".