Tempo and penalties

[WoadBlue]

Longo will run as fast a tempo as Fedora. Will we have as many offsides and players misaligned as we had under Fedora? Could we have more?

If we have as many, or more, how much of that can we attribute to having only freshman QBs?

If we have fewer offsides, etc. with only freshman QBs, can we agree that the difference comes down to coaching?

If we are going bowling this year, almost certainly we must cut penalties on both sides of the ball.

 

[Archer2]

I’d be willing to bet we have less personal foul penalties. As for procedural penalties, maybe not. We are learning new schemes.

 

[UNCPJH81]

Great. Did not like Fedora’s offense.

 

[tarheel0910]

Great. Did not like Fedora’s offense.

Then you probably won't like this one either. It's still going to be a fast pace offense.

 

[ticket2ride04]

Then you probably won't like this one either. It's still going to be a fast pace offense.

Too bad we aren’t installing the triple option

 

[Archer2]

I believe we’ll use our RB’s a little more effectively.

 

[tarheel0910]

I believe we’ll use our RB’s a little more effectively.

I'm sure we will lean on them more while the QBs get some game experience.

 

[Raising Heel]

Too bad we aren’t installing the triple option

I will murder your family.

 

[ticket2ride04]

I believe we’ll use our RB’s a little more effectively.

They should be better in theory as defenses will have to be more honest now that Elliott isn’t under center.

 

[Archer2]

They should be better in theory as defenses will have to be more honest now that Elliott isn’t under center.

Theoretically, our QB should be able to stretch the field.

 

[ticket2ride04]

Theoretically, our QB should be able to stretch the field.

Haven’t had that luxury in 2 years

 

[JimmyinVA]

I believe we’ll use our RB’s a little more effectively.

i have no doubt whatsoever that mack will field a strong running game GO HEELS!

 

[Archer2]

Haven’t had that luxury in 2 years

No we haven’t. The ability to throw downfield and stretch the defense should benefit the running game and vice versa.

 

[lerario]

It sounds like the process for signaling plays in from the sideline will be streamlined, and we won't be doing the thing where we rush to the line and get the D to declare, then look over for the play call. Hopefully that leads to a few less false starts and procedure penalties.

On the RB discussion it will be interesting to see how different the run game looks. It sounds like we'll be running a more power/gap based scheme (think man to man blocking on the OL) and less zone. Perhaps that makes a difference in short yardage and goal line situations.

 

[Archer2]

Second scrimmage tomorrow right?

 

[Raising Heel]

Second scrimmage tomorrow right?

Yes

 

[Archer2]

From what I understand our tempo may be even faster this year. But I expect the coaches to adjust tempo somewhat based on how well we’re playing and our opponent.

 

[Raising Heel]

Second scrimmage tomorrow right?

I'm looking forward to the feedback from tomorrow. You have to think the coaches are starting to settle on a two-deep even if they don't formally announce it until game week.

From what I understand our tempo may be even faster this year. But I expect the coaches to adjust tempo somewhat based on how well we’re playing and our opponent.

I know people are going to get pissy about this comment but time of possession and number of penalties have extremely low correlations to winning percentage.

 

[Archer2]

I know people are going to get pissy about this comment but time of possession and number of penalties have extremely low correlations to winning percentage.

I don’t know about that. If the opposing team has a distinct advantage in time of possession, then you better force some turnovers or you better have a very explosive offense that can put points on the board. You also better have defensive depth.

Also, penalties can be drive killers for you and drive extenders for your opponent.

 

[Raising Heel]

I don’t know about that. If the opposing team has a distinct advantage in time of possession, then you better force some turnovers or you better have a very explosive offense that can put points on the board. You also better have defensive depth.

Also, penalties can be drive killers for you and drive extenders for your opponent.

I don't disagree with any of that. I'm just saying that statistically, neither have much bearing on whether a team wins or loses.

 

[Archer2]

I don't disagree with any of that. I'm just saying that statistically, neither have much bearing on whether a team wins or loses.

I think there’d about have to be some correlation but I don’t have the time to do the research. At any rate, we’re evidently going to play fast. I just hope we don’t put undue stress on our young defense, one that isn’t real deep.

But I trust this staff to control the tempo, one way or the other.

 

[TarHeelMark]

I don't disagree with any of that. I'm just saying that statistically, neither have much bearing on whether a team wins or loses.

I would think winning the turnover battle would have a larger effect on wins & losses.

 

[tarheel0910]

I would think winning the turnover battle would have a larger effect on wins & losses.

I'd be interested in knowing how big of an effect scoring more points has on wins and losses.

 

[TarHeelMark]

I'd be interested in knowing how big of an effect scoring more points has on wins and losses.

I think its second... behind winning the coin toss

 

[Archer2]

Aside from final score and TO’s, I would think TOP and penalties would be next in the pecking order of importance.

 

[Raising Heel]

I would think winning the turnover battle would have a larger effect on wins & losses.

Aside from final score and TO’s, I would think TOP and penalties would be next in the pecking order of importance.

Here's a simple statistical analysis using a correlation coefficient (r), which shows the relationship between winning percentage and a certain variable.

+1.000 = a perfect positive relationship
0.000 = no relationship
-1.0000 = a perfect negative relationship

The closer r is to +1.000 or -1.000, the stronger the relationship. Values closer to 0.000 represent weaker relationships. Here are the r values of a few variables for the 2018 season, ranked by their impact on winning percentage.

+0.613 Offensive Yards per Play
+0.606 Turnover Margin
+0.562 Offensive Yards per Game
+0.264 Time of Possession
+0.248 Offensive Red Zone Percentage
-0.075 Penalties

To eliminate confusion, I won't add defensive stats, but the penalties stat is what I was referring to earlier. It's a negative number, meaning that the lower the number of penalties, the higher the winning percentage. That makes logical sense. However, the r value is so small that it's insignificant. The other variables listed all have a greater impact on winning percentage.

Looking at the numbers above explains why I said TOP and penalties don't really matter. They're not statistically significant when compared to other variables. Turnover margin matters. Offensive yards per game matters, but offensive yards per play matters more. That makes sense because high-tempo offenses can inflate their yards per game number by running more plays. Yards per play, on the other hand, gives an apples-to-apples comparison of offenses regardless of how many plays they run per game.

I'll poast my little head-to-head stats thing about a week before the game if people are still interested. It doesn't show this kind of stuff but it can still help you know what to expect. I've been compiling them for the last couple years to help my stress levels, lol. For example, if you see an opponent is really good at sacks, you don't freak out as much when an actual sack happens because you already knew that's something they do well. Sounds silly but it works for me.

 

[blazers]

Here's a simple statistical analysis using a correlation coefficient (r), which shows the relationship between winning percentage and a certain variable.

+1.000 = a perfect positive relationship
0.000 = no relationship
-1.0000 = a perfect negative relationship

The closer r is to +1.000 or -1.000, the stronger the relationship. Values closer to 0.000 represent weaker relationships. Here are the r values of a few variables for the 2018 season, ranked by their impact on winning percentage.

+0.613 Offensive Yards per Play
+0.606 Turnover Margin
+0.562 Offensive Yards per Game
+0.264 Time of Possession
+0.248 Offensive Red Zone Percentage
-0.075 Penalties

To eliminate confusion, I won't add defensive stats, but the penalties stat is what I was referring to earlier. It's a negative number, meaning that the lower the number of penalties, the higher the winning percentage. That makes logical sense. However, the r value is so small that it's insignificant. The other variables listed all have a greater impact on winning percentage.

Looking at the numbers above explains why I said TOP and penalties don't really matter. They're not statistically significant when compared to other variables. Turnover margin matters. Offensive yards per game matters, but offensive yards per play matters more. That makes sense because high-tempo offenses can inflate their yards per game number by running more plays. Yards per play, on the other hand, gives an apples-to-apples comparison of offenses regardless of how many plays they run per game.

I'll poast my little head-to-head stats thing about a week before the game if people are still interested. It doesn't show this kind of stuff but it can still help you know what to expect. I've been compiling them for the last couple years to help my stress levels, lol. For example, if you see an opponent is really good at sacks, you don't freak out as much when an actual sack happens because you already knew that's something they do well. Sounds silly but it works for me.

Please do.

 

[tarheel0910]

Here's a simple statistical analysis using a correlation coefficient (r), which shows the relationship between winning percentage and a certain variable.

+1.000 = a perfect positive relationship
0.000 = no relationship
-1.0000 = a perfect negative relationship

The closer r is to +1.000 or -1.000, the stronger the relationship. Values closer to 0.000 represent weaker relationships. Here are the r values of a few variables for the 2018 season, ranked by their impact on winning percentage.

+0.613 Offensive Yards per Play
+0.606 Turnover Margin
+0.562 Offensive Yards per Game
+0.264 Time of Possession
+0.248 Offensive Red Zone Percentage
-0.075 Penalties

To eliminate confusion, I won't add defensive stats, but the penalties stat is what I was referring to earlier. It's a negative number, meaning that the lower the number of penalties, the higher the winning percentage. That makes logical sense. However, the r value is so small that it's insignificant. The other variables listed all have a greater impact on winning percentage.

Looking at the numbers above explains why I said TOP and penalties don't really matter. They're not statistically significant when compared to other variables. Turnover margin matters. Offensive yards per game matters, but offensive yards per play matters more. That makes sense because high-tempo offenses can inflate their yards per game number by running more plays. Yards per play, on the other hand, gives an apples-to-apples comparison of offenses regardless of how many plays they run per game.

I'll poast my little head-to-head stats thing about a week before the game if people are still interested. It doesn't show this kind of stuff but it can still help you know what to expect. I've been compiling them for the last couple years to help my stress levels, lol. For example, if you see an opponent is really good at sacks, you don't freak out as much when an actual sack happens because you already knew that's something they do well. Sounds silly but it works for me.

 

[Archer2]

Looking at the numbers above explains why I said TOP and penalties don't really matter. They're not statistically significant when compared to other variables. Turnover margin matters. Offensive yards per game matters, but offensive yards per play matters more.

Ergo why I said that if you lose TOP by a significant amount, you’d better have an explosive offense and force TO’s. It makes perfect sense that the top three variables are the most important factors in determining which team wins.