Could this be the reason Zion is waiting?
The End of OAD
- Thread starter dadika13
- Start date
Could this be the reason Zion is waiting?
This is the best thing that could happen for college hoops.
Soooo, I agree.
That said, I think this hurts us long term.
Think about it, a lot of prospects that we've landed recently we haven't really competed against the UK's, Duke's, Arizona's of the world. They've focused on the OAD kid while we've found the sweet spot of 25-75 (Coby, Leaky, Francis, Jalek, Tony, 7th, etc.).
Now, because there is less of a talent pool going to college, the kids going straight to the pros will get less focus from UK, Duke, etc. and they will have to turn their focus to the kids ranked in our sweet spot range. It's just simply more and better competition for the same group of kids.
I get that we're going to start winning some of these head to head battles now because the type of kid will be different and more toward what we pitch but the numbers of it don't work out well for us.
You make a good point. Winning games won't be easy. I trust that Roy will still be able to recruit well to win ACC and National championships.
Actually, I think it helps us more than most of the blue blood programs, especially those that have relied on the 1^D guys to out talent the rest of the field. If you look at the level of players we have been getting, they have to be coached and developed, they do not come in ready to dominate the game because of freakish talent. That is not a strength of Kalipari and frankly, K has relied on out talenting for so long now it is going to be hard for him at this late stage of his career to go back to developing good but not day 1 star talents.
Personally, I wish the 1&D would go away today, it could well cost us a a player or 2 but it will absolutely cost duke for example Reddish and Barret. I suspect that it is the 2019 class to be the first effected.
Personally, I wish the 1&D would go away today, it could well cost us a a player or 2 but it will absolutely cost duke for example Reddish and Barret. I suspect that it is the 2019 class to be the first effected.
Roy against Calimari without OAD's. I'll take Roy any day of the week.
Almost certainly no. If he commits to a school and OAD goes away, he just declares for the draft if he wants to. This probably isn't the reason he's waiting.
Great points here also.
I see both sides to this definitely. It will be very interesting to see how it all plays out.
So normally I'd think that but Adam Silver gets shit done. Usually his rule changes are implemented immediately.
According to this SI article, any changes must "collectively bargained" by the league and players association.
https://www.si.com/nba/2017/11/17/adam-silver-michele-roberts-ncaa-officials-one-and-done-draft-rule
https://www.si.com/nba/2017/11/17/adam-silver-michele-roberts-ncaa-officials-one-and-done-draft-rule
Dac, I agree for the most part. I do think UNC will continue to have an advantage on the development bigs..i.e. Brice, Meeks. Manley, Brooks types.
If Silver wants it gone the PA will rubber stamp an 18 year old draft without restrictions.
I agree, it is already after the fall signing period for college basketball, I can't imagine that the NBA would change the rule in time for the draft in 2018.
There will be more competition, but also each of those top teams will be signing fewer players. With OAD Duke/UK can take 5-7 prospects every year. If the average player now stays at school 3 years though, you can only sign 3-4 players per year. So to some extent the two factors will cancel out.
Over the last three classes (2015-2017) their # of players has been:
Duke: 7, 6, 6
UK: 8, 5, 7
That's just not possible to sustain with players staying multiple years. The two schools combining to take 6 of the top 50 players in the future is still a lower rate than them taking 12 of the top 75 now, and that's assuming we lose 25 top players every year, which may not happen.
Lots of strong points made on this issue. I can really see both sides of it. I am a UNC fan first and foremost of course, but I'm also a big fan of college basketball in general. To me, it's a lot more fun to watch than the NBA, and I think changing the OAD rule to most likely a 0-and-2 will greatly benefit the game as a whole. The way I see it, the top programs will still be able to recruit well. A program's success will then come down to coaching and development. As long as we have Roy, I'm fine with it.
Absolutely, recruiting across the board would have to go back old school where you had to maintain position balance across multiple years. Duke and Ky, for example have been able to successfully recruit top shelf big man talent all at the same time and line them up like dominos to one ^ done so the 16 kid, the 17 kid, and the 18 kid would all have wide open starting ops with little concern about the current 1&D on roster coming back. That has been their legit big advantage, the ability to have wide open PT to offer without upper classmen being in the way. Where as we have had guys like Meeks and Hicks, good college players but not dominant level talents that will get solid PT such that the star frosh 1&D kid wants 30mins a game to be able to show case his talent to the NBA, our class balance across positions doesn't often allow us to offer that.
IN addition, the newish fad is these star 1&D kids are clustering to schools because they can all get the PT they want, typically they play different positions. Kinda where Ky right now has got themselves in to a bit of a bind, they have multiple guys that are basically the same kind of player, Knox/PJ/Vanderbilt and we all recall Kal and his hockey line rotation that had 5 star kids coming in as groups of 5. Duke last year, lot of 2 guards and power forwards but not a PG in site? When the 1&D goes away you will not see as many package deals being struck, coaches will have to recruit more for need and position balance. WE will be fine, UVa and Bennett will be fine as well.
If this gets done prior to the 2018 draft, there is that possibility that Little could go straight to the NBA.
As I said, I think the 2019 draft is the more realistic start to the new rule. The 2018 draft is about 6 months away. Changing this rule will take some time.
No ... We have established ourselves with this kind/group of recruits/players ... will be great for UNC!!!
3 would be great, but I don't think the players association would agree to go that far. 2 years is the most likely option.
Possibly, but I think there will still be a minimum commitment for kids who choose to attend college.
2019 draft at the earliest is my guess. It would be impossible to do prior to that.
I’d like to see a no restrictions you can go whenever you want. As i said on my own board, I’d like to see the kids be able to go to school (or back to) if they’re not drafted in the first round without penalty (provided obviously not signing with an agent etc).
Thats pretty much impossible, I dont think we need to worry about not having Little next year.
oops looks like Tim beat me to it.
This is a probable scenario.
I think it should go back to no restrictions as well. But in order to make this look good, they’ll probably make it two years for those who choose college.
If that happens, it’ll be interesting to see how that effects recruiting across the board. I personally think UNC has been on the outside looking in within the OAD era and I’d like to see us get a class better than duke and Kentucky for a change lol
Personally, I don't want to see it go "old school" with no restrictions. I prefer kids having to stay 2 years if they decide to attend college.
I would think most kids would stay that amount regardless. I wouldn’t think there would be a huge number of kids that would go pro after one year If they didn’t go pro out of HS- some yes, but a very finite amount. For that reason i think there’s no reason to make the two year rule.
You will still have the same problem we've always had. Schools will get a commitment from a kid that has no business declaring but someone will get in his head and he ends up declaring. Leads to all kinds of problems. A kid will sign in November and then pull the rug out from under you in May and leave the school with absolutely no options.
Certainly, but there imo is nothing you can do about that. But on the flip side, can you really say, sorry i know you’re good enough and able enough to go make a couple million right now but sorry you’re not allowed?
The only solution to this is for the NBA to manage itself better. The OAD rule had nothing to do with the best interests of kids, it was to stop NBA teams from making bone-headed draft selections and squandering millions of dollars on unproven high school 'stars' purely based on "potential"
Until NBA teams collectively agree on some form of vetting system for the draft you'll always get these scenarios where kids who have no business declaring will go.
I've often posted saying the NBA should 'invite' early entrants, based on evaluations and input from all teams. With the invitations being dealt out by consensus, all teams would be bound to only employ those players whom they've deemed fit to be drafted - ie those 'invited'. Such a system would eliminate plenty of the schadenfreude which goes on.
There is not as much risk now as there was when the OAD rule was first instituted. The first pick in the draft is only guaranteed 15M over 2 years which incredibly enough is peanuts in today's NBA. If a team takes a kid out of HS at 7th it goes down to 8M guaranteed over 2 years. The teams are now somewhat protected from a bust early pick.
I like the idea of allowing a kid who declares for the draft out of high school, but doesn't hire an agent, to attend college if he doesn't get drafted. They already allow baseball players to do it even when they are drafted, but don't get signed by the MLB team.
if they eliminated by the 2018 draft it would hurt a couple of schools for sure .. might see one coach retire and the other bolt to the nba
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