The number of college applicants has gone up post-COVID. In 2024-25 college applicants were up 5% YOY. 2023-24 college applicants were up 10% in public schools YOY and up 3% in private schools YOY. And a lot of that was tracked through US zip code applicants while in 2022-23 there was a huge increase in international applicants. College enrollments have also increased by 4-6% the last two years. This is despite a birth rate that has been falling off a cliff since the mid 1990s.
More women are going to college than men, which is something that has happened recently in the last 30 years or so. And that trend is likely to continue. Also, good public schools have pretty low applicant acceptance rates. For instance, UNC has a 19% acceptance rate (42% for in state students). So if those low acceptance rates tell us anything, it generally means that the number of applicants is high and usually growing.
To your point, college enrollments fell between the years of 2010-2021. You may think that was because of political reasons. But it's important to say that 2010 shortly followed a global financial collapse. And 2020 was Covid.
Also, the United States' birth rate has been plummeting for a while now. in 1960 there were 22 live births per 1000 people. In 1980 that dropped to 15 births per 1000 people. It marginally recovered to 15.5 births per 1000 people in 1990. It currently is at 12 births per 1000 people in 2024. So there are fewer kids so logically, there will be fewer people available to go to college. This is why experts are predicting a decline in college applicants in the future.
All of that isn't to say your opinion is not a contributing factor to projected future declines in college applicants/enrollments. But there are other factors that affect more people that appear to be the primary contributing factors in this.
Sources:
Applications grew at a faster pace in the 2024-25 cycle among students traditionally underrepresented in higher education, the company reported.
www.highereddive.com
While college enrollment has declined in the recent past, new students and older learners have contributed to an uptick in enrollment this year.
www.bestcolleges.com
College enrollment peaked around 2010, and it may be headed for a steep decline. Learn more about college enrollment trends and the factors impacting enrollment.
www.bestcolleges.com
Crude birth rate indicates the number of live births occurring during the year, per 1,000 population estimated at midyear. Subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate provides the rate of natural increase, which is equal to the rate of population change in the absence of migration.
www.macrotrends.net