Nonsense.
For the same reason that an informed person could beat a random list most of the time - by knowing enough good teams and putting them on top - an informed person could also create a list that would lose to a random list most of the time - by putting those known good teams on the bottom.
So, no, "ANY list that isn't random" can NOT be counted on to outperform a random list.
You've already agreed - albeit kicking and screaming the contrary - that Pomeroy is better than random. So the next question would logically be "how much better?"
Apparently you are no better at reading than you are at math. As I clearly and correctly stated above, OTHER than the ASTRONOMICALLY unlikely outliers of random arrays getting things anywhere close to right, any ranking by anyone familiar with college basketball will be better than random. If you want an idea of the crazy odds at those outliers hitting even close, with 364 teams the denominator in the damn fraction is 364 Factorial (!). If you don't know what that means, look it up.
*spoiler alert: the actual number will be 776 digits long (with no decimal points).
If this helps your visualization, the odds of a random ranking so much as placing all of the eventual Top-25 teams just somewhere in the top 182 (upper half) is:
1 out of 2-to-the-25th-power = 1 / 33,554,432.
In stark and demonstrative contrast, literally EVERYONE on this board will get at least that much right (barring a really weird outlier cinderella team emerging).
So... one last time, your premise is meaningless. Sorry if that hurts your feelings, but it is what it is.
And for the record, I didn't "come around" to anything. You can spout that disingenuous crap all you want but it doesn't mitigate the speciousness behind your obsessive arguing.
I also clearly stated I have neither the desire nor patience to deal any further with your stubborn unwillingness to learn, yet I just tried one last time. But, do not EVER tell me I'm posting "nonsense". I've done nothing more than state mathematical facts and left the "kicking and screaming" to you.
We're done here, so do NOT reply to this unless you finally "get it" --- you won't like what comes back.
