i get it --- the games are won and lost on paper.
Games aren't won and lost on paper, but saying "they don't play the games on paper" is what talking heads say when a seriously inferior team somehow rises up and beats a clearly proven superior team on a lucky given magical day ....hitting on that one or two games out of ten that the inferior (UNC) wins against the superior (Duke, etc).
To say any team "can beat another team" on any given day.... sure... you see upsets a few times a year. But IF this Heels team makes the NCAA tourney (I highly doubt it) - they would make it as a 10-12 seed most likely, maybe even needing to play in to get to 64. Then they'd be the underdogs in each of their prospective 6 games. So what? Maybe if the stars align they win one of those games, or two at most? You don't get the magic lightning strikes 6 or even 3 games in a row.
I mean other teams can go on hot streaks like NCSU did last year, but those teams had a key go to factor that is hard to beat, and they got hot at the right time. This UNC team has neither.
They are 1-11 in Quad 1. Think about that. If they were tournament worthy, they should have found a way to win a few more of those games. I guarantee that anyone here looking at a blind resume of who Team A has beaten (6 wins recently against horrible ACC teams) - and 1 - 11 in Quad 1, there is NFW you would give them a second look for the tourney, if the team were any other than UNC. That's how the committee has to look at it. UNC doesn't get bonus points for being a blue blood, past tourneys, "Hubs is a nice guy", gate / TV draw, etc. It just doesn't work that way, IF the team totally whiffs in beating ANY legit opponents.
My guess is this team loses on maybe Wed, but for sure Thurs or Fri. A big part of that is - I just don't see Hubs doing anything to outcoach or out-motivate his team vs. the opponents. I don't sense he brings much to the table regarding pre-game or in-game strategy, analytics, taking advantage of areas of superiority, hiding or diminishing weakness areas. And the fact that they can't defend, can't shoot against good defense, and can't rebound, doesn't bode well for them against legit opponents. Some of that is lack of size and interior big man skill, other is lack of coaching up the guys we do have.
