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Quick stuff (MIami game 2)...

...and good grief.

I dunno if I have the energy to write much after that craziness, but here goes:

- I'll start with this: When I loolked up late and RJ had 30 points, that had to be the quietest 30 ever (prolly got lost in the surrounding clunkiness) but lemme tell ya, he got noisy at a good time with big 3s to keep Miami at bay on the way to a career game of 42 for the soon-to-be ACCPOY.

- RJ also had some big hustle plays, running down his FT miss to keep a key possession alive

- Speaking of that, despite an awful offensive outing, and some bad TOs, Ingram got key boards and again, kept a missed FT alive late when things were sketchy late

- Unfortunately, those previous points raise the ugliness of our FT shooting --- yikes! Let's not do that again.

- Speaking of bad outings, Cormac must've felt guilty about scorching UVA. Oof.

- On that note, Cormac's struggles opened more minutes for Seth with some good D on #7

- As for Miami, YGTBFKM with those 3s, including those fugly heaves from their Big. C'mon man. 2/3 of their first half points were 3s.

- Speaking of Bigs, there's no overstating how strong Mando's inside D was. Also, we basically took away their paint game, despite their usual phalanx of moving screens.

- OMG, I lost count at over a dozen blown finishes close for us, over half in transition (!). Too many forces, but mostly just failure to finish thru Miami's constant contact. Hell, we blew 9 dimes (6 close) from Eliot alone.

- Hafta to call out the staff on this one --- we did not handle their late pressure for two reasons: 1) losing continuity in personnel and mostly 2) not adjusting to Miami running level-2 traps --- In other words, we were abandoning our Press-O after the first inbound trap, but they were hitting us again right before half court, and we had no outlet. Granted, most teams don't do that anymore in the 30 sec era, but we have Dean's best-ever Press Offense at our disposal, which is based on counter-rotating to always show 1-3-1 spacing to the ball, which means there should ALWAYS be a reversal back-outlet until you cross the time line. By giving that up too soon, we played right into their hands. That first 10 second violation wasn't EC's fault, and even Ingram's bone-headed hesitation TO could've been avoided by one more iteration of team rotation. Need to get that cleaned up in practice, lest we see it again!

- Before I forget, BIG shoutout to Withers for contributions in both halves, including helping seal it late with a big offensive board and actually making 2 FT's

- Finally, since I call him out (when he often deserves it), credit where it's due to TV Teddy. He was the best zebra on the floor tonight, often making correct calls when his colleagues (cough, cough, Groover, cough) were ignoring them right in front of him.

Anyway, I'll ALWAYS take a win, but sheesh... seems like we can't have nice thing (like a blowout). Got a hungry State bunch coming in, so need a good week of productive practice. Meanwhile, I suppose the #1 ESPN story will be poor delicate Flopowski's "soreness" level...
:rolleyes: :cool:

NC State vs Carolina game thread on Saturday 2 February 2024

On the 50th anniversary of the Walter Davis 35 foot bank shot that capped UNC’s 8 point rally in the last 17 seconds against Duke in which the Tar Heels won in overtime we welcome the Wolfpack whose last chance to get into March madness with a quality one win happens at the Smith Center this afternoon.

Coming off wins at Virginia and at home against Miami, Carolina CANNOT get off to a slow start like when they played Clemson who at the time needed a tier one victory as well.

Forget about the 6 threes Ryan had against the Wahoos and the Smith Center record for Davis last time out against the Wolfpack because today is a new day and everybody must be focused on the opponent and not looking ahead to to the showdown with Duke next Saturday…
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Carolina vs Miami game thread—Saturday 10 February 2024

Coming off that humiliating loss at home vs a much hungrier Clemson team and going against a final four team away that is also fighting for a chance to get into March Madness this should be a classic battle on the hard courts.

The Hurricanes come in 6-6 in the conference and 15-8 overall and they play with 4 shooters and one real big. Nigel Pack is their unquestionable leader and anything over half court is in his range. Wooga Poplar and Michael Cleveland, Keyshawn George, Norchad Omier and the big Michael Nwoko are all dangerous players and can score at any time.

Carolina MUST win the majority of the 50/50 balls and show more urgency than they did against Clemson the other night to gain this win on the road. No more slow starts go right after the Canes..

UNC vs NC State Prediction Thread, Saturday, March 2, 2024, 4pm (Quadruple pts) ODDS UP

ODDS
-13.5 UNC
Over/Under 153.5


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NC State Wolfpack

17-11, 9-8 CONF
NC State Wolfpack
ESPN
3/2
4:00 PM

9

North Carolina Tar Heels

22-6, 14-3 CONF

North Carolina Tar Heels


Every effort will be made to make sure that the ODDS are posted approximately 24 hours before the game based from the Vegas links. Vegas does not normally issue the odds until approximately 24-28 hours before the game. The odds posted in the thread will normally be slightly different from the odds listed in the Vegas links. Your selection must be posted before the game starts. If you want to change your pick, please issue a revision to your original pick.


NCAA College Basketball Odds, Betting Lines & Point Spreads


NORTH-CAROLINA Odds: Schedule, Matchups, & Stats - VegasInsider


Get the latest North Carolina Odds, see their recent and upcoming schedule, matchups, injuries, stats, and team news.
www.vegasinsider.com


Contest 5: Early Season Non-Conference Contest (only games that UNC participating )
Winners: Top 6 players win 3-month subscription to Premium

  • Battle for Atlantis (Possible opponents - Arkansas, Memphis, Michigan, Texas Tech, Villanova)
  • Tennessee (ACC/SEC Challenge)
  • UConn (Jimmy V Classic)
  • Kentucky (CBS Sports Classic)
  • Oklahoma (Jumpman Invitational)

Contest Rules:
Contest #1: Total points through first 15 games
Contest #2: Reset: Total points starting game 16 through end of regular season
Contest #3: Final Four Pool Bracket (Top 64 players)
Contest #4 Grand Prize: Total points ACC and NCAA tournaments games through title game (contest continues even if UNC eliminated) Top 15 Players in Contest #1 and #2.
Contest #5 Early Season Non-Conference Contest ( See games above)

Bullet Points!

Bullet points (3) will automatically be added for any player that forgets to post a prediction for a game. Thus, as long as a player posts a prediction for at least one game, he will receive 3 points for all games that he fails to make a prediction. This is applicable even if he does not make his first prediction until the last game of the contest. Bullet Points will be automatically added. You do not have to request them.

Points Awarded Per Game

36 pts--Max points, Quadruple points game
27 pts--Max points, Triple points game
18 pts--Max points, Double points game
12 pts--Partial points, Quadruple points game
9 pts--Partial points, Triple points game
6 pts--Partial points, Double points game
3 pts--automatic points for any game missed (you failed to make a prediction) in first 20 games
Special Note: The single point games have been eliminated

Grand Prize (Contest #4)
Post Season Contest

Top 15 players in Contest #1 and # 2
ACC and NCAA Tournaments games through title game (contest continues even if UNC eliminated)
Prizes: Large Flat Screen TV, Laptop or Tablet (winner option)

Contest #1 Prizes

1st Place - 1-Year Subscription to Premium, plus miscellaneous prize
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Contest #2 Prizes
1st Place - 1-Year Subscription to Premium, plus miscellaneous prize
2nd Place - 6-Month Subscription to Premium, plus miscellaneous prize
3rd Place - 3-Month Subscription to Premium
4th Place-- 3- month Subscription to Premium

Contest #3 Prizes
1st Place - 3-Month Subscription to Premium

Double Winners—subscriptions can be stacked not to exceed 1 year premium subscription.

Stat Dive (part 18): Percentage Loss of Ball Forced vs. Points Per Possession Allowed

I acquired all of the Division I team data since 2002, and from that we can observe some fascinating trends and data relationships in the data. This is a multipart series exploring some of that data.

OK. Things are really getting interesting! The last entry on this topic covered Percentage Loss of Ball Forced (%lob), and the conclusion was that it wasn't a helpful stat when trying to estimate Winning Percentage. How important is it to playing "good defense"?

There are a few good barometers for defensive play, and in my opinion, Dean Smith's Points Per Possession Allowed (ppp) is the best pure measure of defensive performance. The modern definition of this stat (ppm) subtracts offensive rebounds from the possession total, which has enormous effects on the final quotient. Here is an example why.

If Team A comes down the court and scores with a quick pass and layup, that team scores 2 points in the possession. However when Team B comes down the court, faces excellent defensive pressure, passes the ball for 25 seconds, misses the shot, gets its rebound, takes another 20 seconds to find a good shot, gets the rebound again, gets the ball knocked out of bounds by the defense, inbounds and finally takes a guarded 2 that goes in, Team B also gets 2 points in its possession.

According to the modern definition that Ken Pomeroy, Bart Torvik, and others use, these two defenses are rated the same because they each had one possession and allowed 2.00 points. Dean Smith's method has Team A's defender allowing 2.00 points per possession while Team B's defender allowed just 0.67 (2 points in 3 possessions). Clearly Team B played better defense, so the Smith Method better describes the defensive play than the Modern Method.

To appreciate the effects of forcing turnovers on the percentage loss of ball, I created a scatter plot of the ppp and %lob of the last 1,669 teams that made the NCAA Tournament. The results were quite a surprise.

MBB_pppVSlob_OPP.png


The graph shows an expected inverse relationship between Points Per Possession Allowed (ppp) and Percentage Loss of Ball Forced (%lob). The orange trendline through the plot has an equation of:

ppp = 0.978 - 0.678*%lob

From this we learn that for every single percentage a team suppresses its opponent, it can expect to reduce the opponent's points per possession by only 0.0068. Keep in mind that the difference between Dean Smith's offensive and defensive goals is 0.100, so forcing turnovers has little impact on the opposition's efficiency.

Shown in red is the current UNC team. From its point in the scatter we can see that it's %lob is among the lowest of the field and its overall defense (ppp) is fairly average. UNC can improve its defense in three ways: reduce opponent fg%, foul less, and increase turnovers forced. From the graph we can see that if UNC improved to being an average turnover forcer, it would slide to the right and down in the graph in a path parallel to the trendline, and find itself suppressing its opponents by a scant 0.025 more. The slope of this line is too flat for %lob to have much of an impact on ppp.

Furthermore, the scatter around this line is not tight. The Measure of Fit (R-square) is an extremely poor 0.108 (0.000-1.000 range). So while the slope is too flat, there is far too much variation as well to accept %lob as a meaningful stat.

This insignificance of %lob comes as an enormous surprise. It seems that denial defense makes an opponent score less easily. The real successes of it apparently come from forcing bad shots, not from forcing turnovers. So, there is way too much emphasis placed on forcing turnovers by coaches, announcers, and fans. We keep on learning!

Next up: Opponent Offensive Rebounding Percentage

Prediction Contest Results Through Miami, Contest #2

Prediction Contest Results Through Miami, Contest #2
Check your results!
Three more games!


Top 15 qualify for postseason Grand Prize Contest!


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