Another instate rivalry game and if you compare the two teams stats they are pretty even all the way around.
To me it comes down to how Carolina handles the Wolfpacks full court press and how Black controls T Smith. I hope it ends up like how Manuel use to play against Reddick. Terquavron Smith like Reddick is a volume scorer and he will get his points but Leaky and Love and maybe Dunn need to make sure he does not go off like the last time he was in the Smith Center when he finished with 30 points.
State is not very deep up front and the Burns vs Mando battle in the paint might also decide who wins and loses. Burns is a load at 275 pounds and he actually has some game but will he have the stamina to stay with Bacot for at least 35 minutes.
Morsell and Jorner can both shoot the rock from downtown so they cannot be left wide open…
This game may provide Nance and Washington a chance to get some easy buckets 🪣
I fully expect a loud and boisterous crowd to help the home team prevail.
On what he thought before the game what Armando might do vs State
DAVIS: "I was already expecting him to get his double-double every game."
Anything different about Mando before the game
DAVIS: "He was amped up before the game, usually he is nonchalant about it."
What is it like playing with all-time leader rebounder?
DAVIS: "Just fun to see great players like that. It means everything, we make his job easier and vice versa."
Armando backs up his talk, and not all athletes do that
DAVIS: "He's just relentless, he's going to do what we need him to do. He is going to score, rebound, and defend. That is just the tremendous aspect of his game and tremendous aspect of his game."
LOVE: "We got to do the water dump. He deserves it, he put so much work in and cares about this program so much. He has put so much hard work in, and that what he does he's a rebounding machine, scoring machine. Just seeing him pass that record is amazing."
On Armando backing up his talk
LOVE: "He puts his hard hat on and goes gets every rebound. He is around the rebound all the time, and just goes get it."
On Armando's appreciation of records
LOVE: "He's top dog now, so he's in a world of his own now. He's one of one. I am witnessing greatness by being his teammate and I am happy for him."
STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.
FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)
MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)
Discussion
UNC wins a chippy home game against its second-biggest rival. UNC was just awful from the floor, shooting 22% from 3 and 44% from 2. We've had 88 games of worse shooting in the last 978. UNC did a great job of keeping control of the ball, turning it over only 9% of their possessions. They've only had 48 cleaner offensive games in the last 978.
Thankfully the Wolfpack is not a good defensive team, and could only foul on defense. The Heels took advantage of it and shot 92% from the line, a percentage only eclipsed 16 times in the last 978 games. A lot of whining is going on from the Wolfpackers about the fouls. UNC got 19 trips to the FT line for 1-and-1s and 2-shot fouls. That's the 20th time in the last 978 games that UNC has had 19 or more trips to the line. The last time was that Monmouth game in 2017 when King Rice cried. There was a weird stretch in the early part of the 2014 season where there were 5 games in a 9 game period where the Heels went to the line that much 22, 19, 23, 23, 23). UNC actually lost 2 of those 5 games. It is the 25th time in that period where we have attempted 39 or more free throws.
Best wishes for a speedy recovery by NCSU's Terquavion Smith. I hope he is back in 100% in no time, and that the precautionary measures of rolling him out of the Smith Center were simply that. That said, the foul happened with 9:45 remaining, and UNC had a 10-point lead. The foul isn't what lost the game for NCSU. They lost the game in the stretch from 15:00 to 10:00 remaining where they went 2/9 shooting, missing 6 FG attempts in a row, and got no offensive rebounds. That is what decided the game.
The biggest matchup should be Terquavron Smith vs Leaky Black…T.Smith is leading the ACC in scoring at 19.1 points a game and has scored over 20 in 4 straight games Some of you might remember the last time he was at the Dean Dome he torched the Tar Heels for 30 points so controlling him is a must. Since he is 6’4 I do not believe neither Davis or Love could be able to body him or slow him down so Black with his long arms is the obvious choice. I also like the idea of Dunn guarding him when Leaky needs a break.
Casey Morsell who stands at 6’3 and averages 12.9 a contest shoots over 40 percent from three point land so I would expect Love to get the assignment of stopping him.
Jarkel Jorner is the second leading scorer for the Wolfpack at 16.2 and at 6’1 he should be playing all night against Davis and Trimble.
Greg Gantt is not much of a scorer at 2.1 but he does stand at 6’8 and either Nance, Johnson or Washington will get the job of keeping him in check.
Finally at center State has D J Burns who will be battling Bacot in the paint is averaging 9’9 and despite his size of 6’9 and 275 big ones he has some soft hands and some game…
To me the key matchup will be Black on Smith who loves to go hard to the hole slithering thru defenders and either putting up a shot during a drive or finding Morsell or Jorner for three point attempts…If Black and Dunn can hold Smith who has been talking smack all week under 20 points then the home team should prevail and celebrate Bacot getting the record setting double double title that the Kangaroo Kid Billy Cunningham has held for almost 60 years…
Lost in the Mando accolades is this elite tidbit in regards to RJ:
By making all 14 of his FTAs tonight, RJ Davis has (at least for now) moved past Shammond Williams (84.9%) into the top spot on UNC's all-time FT% leaderboard (among Heels with 50+ made FTs) at 85.1.
That’s a pretty incredible stat that puts our unsung hero in the company of some absolute legends.
I remember when he was recruited as a probable “One and Done”. Just shows what staying in College and working your tail off can do for your game. A real credit as a man and Player. Thanks for coming to the Hill!
I'm old, but for the great majority of my life the ACC had been without question the leading basketball conference in the country. That status has weakened over the last years, even though the conference has had a couple national championships, and schools that advance far in the tournament. But in those years, there only seemed to be a couple teams that had a serious shot to go deep. And now we get to this year. Don't have anybody sniffing the top 10. And right at this moment, I can't point to one team that I can say with confidence would advance to the round of sixteen. Clemson is somehow undefeated at the top of the league. And they somehow have done this with a loss on their record to a South Carolina team that may be the worst South Carolina team in their history. And that is a low bar. Did the conference just chase football so hard that it had a negative effect on basketball? I miss the days where even a .500 team in the ACC was feared. Let me know what you guys think because I can't figure out how the conference just seemed to lose their grip on unquestionably being the best
I have watched ACC basketball for over 50 years from Lenny Wirtz and Dick Papparo to the present. The ACC basketball until maybe recently was the premier league in the country but yet the reffing was never on the level of the league. But the inconsistencies i am seeing now, tricky tack fouls out on the periphery to the allowed banging down low is mind blowing. When i saw , after repeated viewings of Leaky Blacks intentional 2. I lost my cool as at MOST an intentional 1, he went for ball all the way! Sorry , but needed to vent as that finally was the last straw on my feelings towards reffing in the ACC and college in general
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