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Carolina vs Virginia game thread on Saturday 24 Feb 2024

I expect this game to be very similar to the Duke/Wake contest presently going on a very close and competitive battle that will go down to the wire.

I really do not care that the Tar Heels have not won up there in 13 years because these are different teams and this is a different year. I believe Carolina fully understands the overall importance of this game and the effort with a week off since they played last will make for win for the visitors…

UNC vs Virginia Prediction Thread, Saturday, February 24, 4pm (Triple Pts) ODDS UP

ODDS
-3.5 UNC
OVER/UNDER 130.5


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10

North Carolina Tar Heels

20-6, 12-3 CONF
North Carolina Tar Heels
ESPN
2/24
4:00 PM


Virginia Cavaliers

20-7, 11-5 CONF

Virginia Cavaliers



Every effort will be made to make sure that the ODDS are posted approximately 24 hours before the game based from the Vegas links. Vegas does not normally issue the odds until approximately 24-28 hours before the game. The odds posted in the thread will normally be slightly different from the odds listed in the Vegas links. Your selection must be posted before the game starts. If you want to change your pick, please issue a revision to your original pick.


NCAA College Basketball Odds, Betting Lines & Point Spreads


NORTH-CAROLINA Odds: Schedule, Matchups, & Stats - VegasInsider


Get the latest North Carolina Odds, see their recent and upcoming schedule, matchups, injuries, stats, and team news.
www.vegasinsider.com


Contest 5: Early Season Non-Conference Contest (only games that UNC participating )
Winners: Top 6 players win 3-month subscription to Premium

  • Battle for Atlantis (Possible opponents - Arkansas, Memphis, Michigan, Texas Tech, Villanova)
  • Tennessee (ACC/SEC Challenge)
  • UConn (Jimmy V Classic)
  • Kentucky (CBS Sports Classic)
  • Oklahoma (Jumpman Invitational)

Contest Rules:
Contest #1: Total points through first 15 games
Contest #2: Reset: Total points starting game 16 through end of regular season
Contest #3: Final Four Pool Bracket (Top 64 players)
Contest #4 Grand Prize: Total points ACC and NCAA tournaments games through title game (contest continues even if UNC eliminated) Top 15 Players in Contest #1 and #2.
Contest #5 Early Season Non-Conference Contest ( See games above)

Bullet Points!

Bullet points (3) will automatically be added for any player that forgets to post a prediction for a game. Thus, as long as a player posts a prediction for at least one game, he will receive 3 points for all games that he fails to make a prediction. This is applicable even if he does not make his first prediction until the last game of the contest. Bullet Points will be automatically added. You do not have to request them.

Points Awarded Per Game

36 pts--Max points, Quadruple points game
27 pts--Max points, Triple points game
18 pts--Max points, Double points game
12 pts--Partial points, Quadruple points game
9 pts--Partial points, Triple points game
6 pts--Partial points, Double points game
3 pts--automatic points for any game missed (you failed to make a prediction) in first 20 games
Special Note: The single point games have been eliminated

Grand Prize (Contest #4)
Post Season Contest

Top 15 players in Contest #1 and # 2
ACC and NCAA Tournaments games through title game (contest continues even if UNC eliminated)
Prizes: Large Flat Screen TV, Laptop or Tablet (winner option)

Contest #1 Prizes

1st Place - 1-Year Subscription to Premium, plus miscellaneous prize
2nd Place - 6-Month Subscription to Premium, plus miscellaneous prize
3rd Place - 3-Month Subscription to Premium
4th Place-- 3-Month Subscription to Premium

Contest #2 Prizes
1st Place - 1-Year Subscription to Premium, plus miscellaneous prize
2nd Place - 6-Month Subscription to Premium, plus miscellaneous prize
3rd Place - 3-Month Subscription to Premium
4th Place-- 3- month Subscription to Premium

Contest #3 Prizes
1st Place - 3-Month Subscription to Premium

Double Winners—subscriptions can be stacked not to exceed 1 year premium subscription.

Do you feel Ingram is better offensively posting up or shooting three point shots?

As he showed against Duke when he hit five bombs from downtown he is capable of doing damage from long distance but I REALLY LIKE IT when he posts up on the left side and takes his defender into the paint and shoots from closer in.

Yes I realize he is shooting pretty close to 40 percent from three point land but I also realize he is either first or second in the league in rebounds so if he gets closer to the basket he has a great chance to get a offensive rebound and score or get fouled. He is just about a 60 percent free throw shooter but I still like him in the paint. Which do you think he helps the team the most?

Quick stuff (VaTech game)...

...and this was an absolute gem of scouting.

I've watched VaTech a few times and they STRUGGLE defending the post, which is why they are so danged grabby and handsy before the ball gets down there. Once we saw how they were gonna approach it, the staff was ready and it was an obvious practice point this week. On a day of meh 3-point shooting, this was won the old-fashioned way.

- Any time we saw Mando in a post before help was available we redirected to it, sometimes even in the Secondary. And in the second half we ran 3 different post-entry actions, all of which worked --- the old-school, iso wing entry, the backside baseline Flex-cut off ball reversal, and the quick P&R slip off the high up-screen to the Point (we coulda had even more on that one with some clean catches --- ALWAYS be looking when #2 has the rock),

- On that note, Mando looked way more spry today and flat took it to em, and was ready for kick-outs off doubles!

- We really had to toughen up after halftime. After a nicely called 1st half, it was predictable the foul numbers would go the other way, and they did. Their grabs caused more than one of our TO's and made it difficult to pull away.

- Speaking of tough, with so much of their attention on Mando, Ingram hit the boards like a grown-ass man and mostly finished strong on put-backs, using his width to clear space and going up strong.

- We missed some mismatches inherent in their 3-Guard lineup (a few times Withers had a Guard on him), but on the other end we were, except for unconscious #2 and Nickel (of course), able to contain their aggressive shooters. EC, RJ, Cormac, Seth and Woj all played hard D to make them work for most everything --- especially in the second half when we held them to 1/12 from deep.

- Also, there were a couple of times in the second half when our perimeter guys gave up fouls to protect Mando from getting #4 --- the subtle things that win games.

- Huge alpha play by RJ. With our continuity immediately stalled when EC went out late, RJ took on a perimter double and created a late-clock 3 just when we needed it most. And speaking of huge, Cormac's dagger 3 closed out any comeback chances.

- finally, our young Mr. Cadeau's next step of maturation into this level is to contain frustration, even when it's deserved. The last frustration foul (after being mugged like a Running Back vs a goal-line defense) was case-in-point. With a few exceptions, RJ is a good example to follow there. The little guy has taken more than his share of poundings over the years, but eventually realized that discretion is the better part of valor for a player so valuable. EC should follow suit. We survived it today (due to the reasons mentioned above) but Eliot was +19 in 23 minutes today --- we need ya on the floor, young fella!

Anyway, fun to watch a nice win utilizing old-school Carolina inside-out basketball! Now we have a week to prep for our nightmare arena --- time to change the narrative in Charlottesville, dadgummit!...
:cool:

Subtraction By Addition? The ACC In 2024-25.

I haven't been following the conference realignments that closely so please straighten me out if I have this wrong.

As I understand it, we are adding Stanford, Cal and SMU, while still retaining FSU for a few more minutes. Is that right? My googling skills suck but that's what an article from last fall seemed to be saying.

Does that make the ACC better? Worse? More interesting? Less interesting?

Here's the list, in order of today's Pomeroy rankings:

TeamRank
UNC10
Duke11
Wake26
Clemson30
SMU39
Va Tech51
Pitt52
Virginia65
NC State73
Miami80
FSU84
Boston College88
Syracuse89
Stanford92
California109
Ga Tech138
Notre Dame155
Louisville177

Stat Dive (part 11): Tournament Selection Prediction

I acquired all of the Division I team data since 2002, and from that we can observe some fascinating trends and data relationships in the data. This is a multipart series exploring some of that data.

In the last 23 years the NCAA has invited 65-68 teams to its tournament. While many teams earned an automatic bid by winning their conference championship, others were invited to participate, nevertheless. If we look at those 351 teams, we begin to see a profile for what the NCAA typically includes.

Multiple regression analyses are designed to estimate a variable with an infinite range. When estimating a Boolean (True/False), there is a different formula, and the result is always a probability number ranging between 0.0 and 1.0.

If we look at the 351 teams' Points Per Possession (Smith Method) and Rebounding Differential, we can create a formula from which we can calculate a probability estimate of making the tournament based on the typical NCAA tournament team's profile. Plugging in the current teams' values gives us a better feel for the likelihood of these teams' inclusion in March Madness.

Following this post is the table of 351 teams this season, based on play thru the end of 2/22/24. Don't go to Vegas with the numbers in the table that follows, however the order of teams is pretty interesting, especially when you consider the conferences involved. Of course the top teams in the country should be closer to 1.0 and probably 200 teams should have a probability score of 0.0, but the order here is what is interesting. Also of note, the 68th-team cutoff is currently at 0.400, so pretty much teams above 0.400 are likely to make the tournament (with the exception of 2nd place teams in minor conferences, NET weights on good wins/bad losses, etc).

When the conference tournaments start, it will be especially interesting to watch these tournaments:
  • America East: UMass (Lowell)/Vt.
  • ASUN: Lipscomb/Stetson/E.KY - these are all dogs
  • A10: Dayton/Richmond/
  • Big Sky: Weber St./E. Washington
  • Big South: High Points/Winthrop
  • Big West: UC Irvine's to lose
  • CAA: UNCW/Hofstra/Drexel
  • ConfUSA: La. Tech/Liberty
  • Horizon: Purdue(Ft.Wayne)/Youngstown St.
  • Ivy: Princeton/Cornell
  • Metro Atlantic: Marist/Quinnipiac/Fairfield - all dogs
  • Mid-American: Akron's to lose (maybe Ohio?)
  • Mid-Eastern: Norfolk St./NCCentral
  • Missouri Valley: Indiana St/Drake/
  • Mountain West: NM/Col St/NV/UT St/SDSU/Boise St. - all in the top 66
  • Northeast: Cen Conn St./Merrimack - all dogs
  • Ohio Valley: Morehead St's to lose
  • Patriot: Colgate's to lose
  • Southern: Samford's to lose, though UTChatt, W. Carolina, UNC-G all decent
  • Southland: McNeese's to lose
  • Southwestern: Southern U's to lose - a total dog
  • Summit: S Dakota St/N Dakota/N Dakota St. - all dogs
  • Sun Belt: JMU/App St/ Troy - very interesting trio
  • WAC: Grand Canyon's to lose
  • West Coast: Gonzaga/St. Mary's/San Francisco

Next up: Possession Differential (Rebounding)
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