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Stat Review: Syracuse (1/13/2024)

STATVALUEPCTLEHISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%48 57
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3FG%27 24
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2FG%59 80
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FT%81 83
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fg%37 77
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3fg%21 87
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2fg%43 62
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ft%81 19
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PTS/POSS0.99 66
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pts/poss0.74 77
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TOTPOSS194 94
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POSDIF14 96
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%LOB13 69
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%lob19 70
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SmithIdx0.145980
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Interesting Stats
ast/poss0.09 91
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AST/FG0.43 12
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OR%0.48 91
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or%0.18 78
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%FROM333.870
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STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
OR% = UNC Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.344)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
or% = Opponent Percentage of Missed Shots that are Rebounded (0.241)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)
Discussion
It's hard to gain any understanding of your team when a team like Syracuse shows up in body only and goes through the motions. Despite looking like a JV team, Syracuse still played better than NC State on Wednesday. I don't recall a stretch of 4 opponents playing this badly since I started watching basketball 50 years ago.

For what it's worth, for the game UNC scored 0.99 pts/poss to Syracuse's 0.74. UNC scored 1.13 pts/poss in the first half, but extended garbage time in the second half distorts these stats significantly.

If I had to pick one stat that portrayed the game, it was UNC's 48% rebounding of its missed shots. In the last 1006 games, we've only seen 6 opponents give less effort rebounding our missed shots.

The other interesting stat is pace. This game featured 194 possessions. We haven't seen a non-overtime game with that many possessions since the home Duke game in 2020, which had a whopping 212 possessions.

Stat stat lines don't show it, but have seen some recent improvements by Cadeau on both ends of the floor. Keep it up!

Quick stuff (State game)...

...and we're gettin' there.

- We got exactly what many of us anticipated: Keatts trying to ugly-up the game and keep us out of transition. They were often successful with that, especially in the 1st half (when the zebra crew enabled it) as they fouled our rebounders and grabbed our outlet guys. They were also able to iso and use clock.

- we aided and abetted their efforts with uncharacteristic poor shooting, and for a while fell into their briar patch by forcing shots or not pitching ahead consistently. RJ in particular got frustrated and lost patience and we weren't strong enough with the rock.

- Here comes the good news: We kept everything in hand by continuing our commitment to defense,... and other than a few blown off-ball coverages, continued it throughout.

- Speaking of D, I'm gonna give a special shout-out to young Mr. Cadeau, who not only avoided foul trouble, absolutely STONED what looked to be layup drives no less than FOUR times in the first half to help keep everything in line.

- also, a nice job of our guys compensating for losing Mando for long stretches (that flagrant call was theatrical BS from a guy who had been throwing cheapies around). JWash hung in there despite being banged around and Ingram decided to take up the rebounding slack.

- We also adjusted to the Burns iso with a variety of doubles when he started way too far out, and then flat wore him out on the other end --- more on that below

- RJ got past his early forces and being fouled often with ZERO trips to the line, still managing 16 on a night with only two double-figure scorers.

- amazingly, we got to the line all of TWO times in the first half, and when they called a travel on Mando when he got tripped on our first Secondary, welp... here we go again. HOWEVER, perhaps there was another half-time lecture, and y'all saw what happened when we actually got some calls on the constant contact.

- The bad news was we had an awful FT shooting night. That's usually deadly in tough road games, so that speaks well to the number we did on the wuffies in the 2nd half.

- Back to RJ, I have noticed in recent weeks more than one ACC team (including us) have been using Tony's "flair cuts" off screen action at the foul line-extended that makes UVA's Guards such a pain. We did that a couple of times early in the 2nd half to get RJ going and boy, did that set up the coup-de-gras. Once we baited them into chasing RJ off that early action, we started slipping EC up to take the hand-off and put fat-boy into a 20ft ball-screen, then EC and Mando took them to school on P&Rs. IIRC, we ran that action on 4 straight possessions and they didn't defend it once --- game over for all intents and purposes.

- Moment: Cadeau made a hotly contested drive and somehow got up an impossible lob to the rim, but JWash didn't go to the rack for what would have been a dunk --- that comes from still learning to play with a savant PG, and that comes with consistent minutes with him on the floor. 33 minutes tonight and over 20 of those with RJ precurses what we can be,

- Finally, on that note, on a "physical" night when we didn't get to 70, we nonetheless managed a sneaky 33 transition points,. That, along with the sweet X-and-O adjustment mentioned above, was all she wrote, folks.

Anyway, always good to keep things in order and State in their place --- especially AT their place. If we keep playing with this sort of defensive intensity and guys get used to playing together, and eso=pecially with our shiny new PG, well... we might just get there yet...
:cool:

Wild week

Unless I’m mistaken, this week 7 of the top 10 teams all lost & lost to an unranked team. The only 3 to NOT suffer a loss were #4 UConn, #7 UNC, & #10 Illinois. My memory isn’t as good as it once was but I don’t remember a week like this ever?
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