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STAT REVIEW: Northern Iowa (11/22/23)

STATVALUEPCTLEHISTORICAL COMPARISON
Base Stats
FG%43 29
UNC_statBox_25.png

3FG%46 81
UNC_statBox_80.png

2FG%40 10
UNC_statBox_10.png

FT%87 93
UNC_statBox_90.png

fg%45 30
UNC_statBox_25.png

3fg%35 44
UNC_statBox_40.png

2fg%50 33
UNC_statBox_30.png

ft%68 50
UNC_statBox_50.png

PTS/POSS1.08 87
UNC_statBox_85.png

pts/poss0.86 46
UNC_statBox_45.png

TOTPOSS164 38
UNC_statBox_35.png

POSDIF4 61
UNC_statBox_60.png

%LOB11 86
UNC_statBox_85.png

%lob21 84
UNC_statBox_80.png

SmithIdx0.120876
UNC_statBox_75.png

Interesting Stats
ast/poss0.15 56
UNC_statBox_55.png

%RMS0.34 50
UNC_statBox_45.png

%rms0.24 49
UNC_statBox_45.png

%from332 65
UNC_statBox_65.png

%FROM342.693
UNC_statBox_90.png


STAT = Statistic being reported
VALUE = Value of reported stat from the current game
PCTLE = Percentile When Compared to All UNC Games since 1996
Historical Comparison = Graphic Portrayal of PCTLE. Marks depict 20% quintiles, as well as 50%.

FG% = UNC Total Field Goal Percentage (47.0% avg since 1996)
3FG% = UNC 3-point Field Goal Percentage (35.6%)
2FG% = UNC 2-point Field Goal Percentage (51.4%)
FT% = UNC Free Throw Percentage (70.0%)
fg% = Opponent Total Field Goal Percentage (41.6%)
3fg% = Opponent 3-point Field Goal Percentage (33.8%)
2fg% = Opponent 2-point Field Goal Percentage (45.9%)
ft% = Opponent Free Throw Percentage (68.2%)
PTS/POSS = UNC Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.934)
pts/poss = Opponent Points Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.846))
POSS = UNC Total Possessions (Smith Method, 85.6)
POSDIF = UNC Advantage in Total Possessions (Smith Method, 2.03)
%LOB = UNC Percentage Loss of Ball (TO/POSS, 15.9)
%lob = Opponent Percentage Loss of Ball (to/poss, 16.4)

MOV = Margin of Victory (9.43)
%FROM3 = UNC Percentage of FG Attempts Taken From 3 (35.6%)
AST/POSS = UNC Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.20)
AST/FG = UNC Assists Per Field Goal (0.59)
AST/TO = UNC Assists Per Turnover (1.4)
%from3 = Opponent Percentage of Shots Taken From 3 (33.8)
ast/poss = Opponent Assists Per Possession (Smith Method, 0.16)
ast/fg = Opponent Assists Per Field Goal (0.52)
ast/to = Opponent Assists Per Turnover (1.1)
poss = Opponents Total Possessions (Smith Method) (83.6)
TOTPOSS = Total Possessions in the Game(Smith Method, 169.3)
SmithIdx = UNC Total of Pts/Poss minus Offensive Goal (0.95) + Defensive Goal (0.85) minus Opponent Pts/Poss (avg: -0.01)
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UNC vs Villanova Prediction Thread, Thursday 11/23, 2:30 PM (ODDS UP)

ODDS
-4.5 UNC
Over/Under 146.5


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Villanova Wildcats

4-1
Villanova Wildcats
ESPN
11/23
2:30 PM


14

North Carolina Tar Heels

4-0


Tar Heels




Every effort will be made to make sure that the ODDS are posted approximately 24 hours before the game based from the Vegas links. Vegas does not normally issue the odds until approximately 24-28 hours before the game. The odds posted in the thread will normally be slightly different from the odds listed in the Vegas links. Your selection must be posted before the game starts. If you want to change your pick, please issue a revision to your original pick.


NCAA College Basketball Odds, Betting Lines & Point Spreads



Contest 5: Early Season Non-Conference Contest (only games that UNC participating )
Winners: Top 6 players win 3-month subscription to Premium
  • Battle for Atlantis (Possible opponents - Arkansas, Memphis, Michigan, Texas Tech, Villanova)
  • Tennessee (ACC/SEC Challenge)
  • UConn (Jimmy V Classic)
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Contest Rules:
Contest #1: Total points for entire season
Contest #2: Reset: Total points after game #15
Contest #3: Final Four Pool Bracket (Top 64 players)
Contest #4 Grand Prize: Total points ACC and NCAA tournaments games through title game (contest continues even if UNC eliminated)
Contest #5 Early Season Non-Conference Contest ( See games above)

Bullet Points!

For the first 20 games, three (3) Bullet points will automatically be added for any player that forgets to post a prediction for a game. Thus, as long as a player posts a prediction for at least one game, he will receive 3 points for all games that he fails to make a prediction. This is applicable even if he does not make his first prediction until the 20th game of the season. In this case, he will still get 60 points for the first 20 games that he failed to make a prediction for. Bullet Points will be automatically added. You do not have to request them.

Points Awarded Per Game

27 pts--Max points, Triple points game
18 pts--Double points game
9 pts--Partial points, Triple points game
6 pts--Partial points, Double points game
3 pts--automatic points for any game missed (you failed to make a prediction) in first 20 games
Special Note: The single point games have been eliminated

Grand Prize (Contest #4)
Post Season Contest

Top 15 players in Contest #1 and # 2
ACC and NCAA Tournaments games through title game (contest continues even if UNC eliminated)
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Contest #1 Prizes

1st Place - 1-Year Subscription to Premium, plus miscellaneous prize
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Contest #2 Prizes
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2nd Place - 6-Month Subscription to Premium, plus miscellaneous prize
3rd Place - 3-Month Subscription to Premium
4th Place-- 3- month Subscription to Premium

Contest #3 Prizes
1st Place - 3-Month Subscription to Premium

Double Winners—subscriptions can be stacked not to exceed 1 year premium subscription.
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Quick stuff (UNI game)...

...and I came THIS close.

This game was a microcosm of everything we've talked about this week --- both the good and, oh Dear Lord, the bad --- so this will be relatively short. I'll start with the good, in the interest of blood pressure:

- we showed some 44, 24, 23 and 32 (once, forcing a TO) --- more please.
- one thing I hope we can continue to hang our hats on --- and it sure as hell kept us in the game in the first half --- is getting to the line and making FTs... 27/31 (in a game that allowed a lot of contact) will absolutely hunt.

- speaking of that, we got FTs by attacking the rim --- a bit too much off the dribble in the first half, TBH... more off pounding the rock inside in the second.

- I love Ingram's aggressiveness and all-around game. That said, I do NOT love him leading the break when Guards are even with or ahead of him. We got one good outcome from that vs a couple not so good. He's a good passer for his size, but as for handle on the fly and decision-making in traffic, well let's just say, it ain't Theo Pinson.

- the roster allowed us to go both "big" (like the versatility with Withers) and "small" (Woj played the 4 at one point), and that is a luxury... well, THAT IS, if it's in the flow of the game
BUT......

- Once and for all: STARTING LINEUPS MATTER. What in the actual hell was the point of today's?... (and yeah, I came this close to wadding up my note sheet and saying "adios" to these writeups). I mean, do we want to get off to even slower starts? Seth is doing some nice things lately, but he is just NOT a fit as a starter on this roster. The dadgummed solution continues to be obvious........

Speaking of which, BTW:
Transition points: with EC = 27, without EC = 10
EC/RJ backcourt: 38 pts in 14:50 = 2.8 PPM (112 PPG rate)
1st half: UNC team scores 35 (UNI scores 41) ---- EC plays 8 minutes and change,
2nd half: UNC team scores 56 (UNI scores 28) --- EC plays just under 15 minutes.

Finally, I always say that you can't judge a performance depending on whether 3s happen to go down --- it's HOW you're playing overall. And to that, a most interesting stat was that we took the exact same # of 3s in both halves --- 13. The difference was we made 3X as many in the second half. But here's the thing, in the second the looks were better and more in rhythm because we moved the ball better and played more inside-out AND we played largely with BETTER CAROLINA TEMPO.

Anyway, look, with our schedule we're likely gonna lose some games along the way no matter whom we start, but I'd rather minimize that number, and certainly not tempt fate. UNI is a sound, well-coached team and if you give em a chance to beat you? Welp... that's exactly what we did in the first half. Second half we played harder and smarter and more together, and yes, had more time with a PG on the floor. Grinder starts tomorrow --- are we gonna start playing Carolina basketball a bit sooner? Guess we shall see...
:oops:
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