Can someone change my mind on Jairus Hamilton?

[pln2013]

Yes, this is my first post. No, I am not a troll. Wall of text incoming.

I've seen a fair amount of Hamilton (never in person), and my overall impression is "meh". My thoughts on him are below; I'd love to be told why I'm wrong.

Hamilton's position in both college (and the NBA, if he gets there) is the 3 and/or the 4. Ideally, he'd have the versatility to play both. My concern is that he's not well-suited to either.

From a physical standpoint, he's a "first off the bus" type. He's listed at 6'8" 235, and those measurements look pretty reasonable (maybe a bit lighter). He has a powerful build. His length appears to average (maybe slightly below average) - I'm guessing around 6'10". He's not an exceptional leaper, but he does explode well for his size - he doesn't have trouble dunking in traffic, and he can finish through contact with his strength.

Physically, he reminds me of slightly heavier and slightly less athletic Harrison Barnes. The comparison captures his strengths and segues into my concerns.

Like Barnes, Hamilton has a strong build and can jump. But like Barnes, he's stiff laterally and lacks an overall fluidity to his game. Barnes struggled to beat smaller guards off the dribble in college (this is where some folks might start to disagree with me), and still isn't a blow-by type of player in the better-spaced (and better-defended, of course) NBA. When he did get by his defender, there was a great chance of a highlight; but oftentimes he was simply stopped from getting near the rim. I expect Hamilton to encounter similar challenges.

Barnes was effective in college because of his jumper. He was a decent 3pt shooter, but his bread and butter was the one-dribble pull-up, which he could get off against almost anybody and which had a decent (though not great) success rate. He's able to be a first option in the NBA (on a bad team) because of his strong isolation (primary mid-range shots) and post-up ability.

Hamilton doesn't really have a jumper. He has okay form and poor results (2-21 from 3 in the EYBL so far). He's an okay FT shooter (17-24 / 70.8% so far, though I think his previous numbers have been lower) which suggests some potential for a competent jumper, but I think he's pretty far from having one. Nothing I've seen has suggested that he has good touch from mid-range.

Of course, I haven't really touched on his key strength yet - that is, his strength. He's a powerful wing with the potential to bully 3s in college (and potentially in the NBA). I think he has very real potential as a post-up / drive-from-the-elbow type of wing. That type of player can be valuable. But those types of plays have a high degree of difficulty. Post-ups are very hard to defend, but they're also very hard to execute. They require a high level of skill, awareness, and patience. If you're really good at them (Kawhi Leonard, DeRozan, Melo, Barnes), it's a dangerous weapon. If you're okay at them, it's not very useful, because for most players post-ups are a low percentage shot. And it's rare to see a wing with a sufficiently high skill level in college. Barnes didn't have that in college, and he was much more skilled overall than Hamilton.

Overall, I see Hamilton lacking a good way to score efficiently as a wing other than cuts. He contributes in other ways - specifically passing - but I'm afraid he'll be a medium/high-usage and low-efficiency scorer. I picture him shooting too many difficult 2s when he can't get all the way to the rim. Maybe I'm wrong; if we get him, I certainly hope I'm wrong.

I'll touch on his potential as a 4, but I'll be more brief. He has the strength to competently guard most 4s and obviously has the ability to switch onto wings and many guards. His relative quickness would make him a mismatch (and hopefully a foul magnet) driving to the basket. But his lack of a reliable jumper prevents him from being a "stretch" 4. My big concern with him at the 4 is rebounding. He averaged 7 rebounds per game as a junior as the biggest guy (or one of the biggest guys) on the court. And he's averaging 4 rebounds per game in 26 minutes per game in the EYBL. That won't cut it.

Like I said - I want someone to tell me why I'm wrong. But from what I've seen, I'd much rather have Nassir Little, or even a lower-ranked guy like John Newman.

 

[HeelFan58]

Yes, this is my first post. No, I am not a troll. Wall of text incoming.

I've seen a fair amount of Hamilton (never in person), and my overall impression is "meh". My thoughts on him are below; I'd love to be told why I'm wrong.

Hamilton's position in both college (and the NBA, if he gets there) is the 3 and/or the 4. Ideally, he'd have the versatility to play both. My concern is that he's not well-suited to either.

From a physical standpoint, he's a "first off the bus" type. He's listed at 6'8" 235, and those measurements look pretty reasonable (maybe a bit lighter). He has a powerful build. His length appears to average (maybe slightly below average) - I'm guessing around 6'10". He's not an exceptional leaper, but he does explode well for his size - he doesn't have trouble dunking in traffic, and he can finish through contact with his strength.

Physically, he reminds me of slightly heavier and slightly less athletic Harrison Barnes. The comparisonevaluatorshis strengths and segues into my concerns.

Like Barnes, Hamilton has a strong build and can jump. But like Barnes, he's stiff laterally and lacks an overall fluidity to his game. Barnes struggled to beat smaller guards off the dribble in college (this is where some folks might start to disagree with me), and still isn't a blow-by type of player in the better-spaced (and better-defended, of course) NBA. When he did get by his defender, there was a great chance of a highlight; but oftentimes he was simply stopped from getting near the rim. I expect Hamilton to encounter similar challenges.

Barnes was effective in college because of his jumper. He was a decent 3pt shooter, but his bread and butter was the one-dribble pull-up, which he could get off against almost anybody and which had a decent (though not great) success rate. He's able to be a first option in the NBA (on a bad team) because of his strong isolation (primary mid-range shots) and post-up ability.

Hamilton doesn't really have a jumper. He has okay form and poor results (2-21 from 3 in the EYBL so far). He's an okay FT shooter (17-24 / 70.8% so far, though I think his previous numbers have been lower) which suggests some potential for a competent jumper, but I think he's pretty far from having one. Nothing I've seen has suggested that he has good touch from mid-range.

Of course, I haven't really touched on his key strength yet - that is, his strength. He's a powerful wing with the potential to bully 3s in college (and potentially in the NBA). I think he has very real potential as a post-up / drive-from-the-elbow type of wing. That type of player can be valuable. But those types of plays have a high degree of difficulty. Post-ups are very hard to defend, but they're also very hard to execute. They require a high level of skill, awareness, and patience. If you're really good at them (Kawhi Leonard, DeRozan, Melo, Barnes), it's a dangerous weapon. If you're okay at them, it's not very useful, because for most players post-ups are a low percentage shot. And it's rare to see a wing with a sufficiently high skill level in college. Barnes didn't have that in college, and he was much more skilled overall than Hamilton.

Overall, I see Hamilton lacking a good way to score efficiently as a wing other than cuts. He contributes in other ways - specifically passing - but I'm afraid he'll be a medium/high-usage and low-efficiency scorer. I picture him shooting too many difficult 2s when he can't get all the way to the rim. Maybe I'm wrong; if we get him, I certainly hope I'm wrong.

I'll touch on his potential as a 4, but I'll be more brief. He has the strength to competently guard most 4s and obviously has the ability to switch onto wings and many guards. His relative quickness would make him a mismatch (and hopefully a foul magnet) driving to the basket. But his lack of a reliable jumper prevents him from being a "stretch" 4. My big concern with him at the 4 is rebounding. He averaged 7 rebounds per game as a junior as the biggest guy (or one of the biggest guys) on the court. And he's averaging 4 rebounds per game in 26 minutes per game in the EYBL. That won't cut it.

Like I said - I want someone to tell me why I'm wrong. But from what I've seen, I'd much rather have Nassir Little, or even a lower-ranked guy like John Newman.

A heck of a 1st post. You gave a great analysis (a little over my head) and I have read a lot of the same from evaluators. He does struggle to score against good competition and in one EYBL game missed all his shots except 2 dunks. He has had the offer for a long time and I say we offer Little and Hoard and go first come , first serve. Oh yeah , I cannot tell you that you are wrong.

 

[gunslingerdick]

Yes, this is my first post. No, I am not a troll. Wall of text incoming.

I've seen a fair amount of Hamilton (never in person), and my overall impression is "meh". My thoughts on him are below; I'd love to be told why I'm wrong.

Hamilton's position in both college (and the NBA, if he gets there) is the 3 and/or the 4. Ideally, he'd have the versatility to play both. My concern is that he's not well-suited to either.

From a physical standpoint, he's a "first off the bus" type. He's listed at 6'8" 235, and those measurements look pretty reasonable (maybe a bit lighter). He has a powerful build. His length appears to average (maybe slightly below average) - I'm guessing around 6'10". He's not an exceptional leaper, but he does explode well for his size - he doesn't have trouble dunking in traffic, and he can finish through contact with his strength.

Physically, he reminds me of slightly heavier and slightly less athletic Harrison Barnes. The comparison captures his strengths and segues into my concerns.

Like Barnes, Hamilton has a strong build and can jump. But like Barnes, he's stiff laterally and lacks an overall fluidity to his game. Barnes struggled to beat smaller guards off the dribble in college (this is where some folks might start to disagree with me), and still isn't a blow-by type of player in the better-spaced (and better-defended, of course) NBA. When he did get by his defender, there was a great chance of a highlight; but oftentimes he was simply stopped from getting near the rim. I expect Hamilton to encounter similar challenges.

Barnes was effective in college because of his jumper. He was a decent 3pt shooter, but his bread and butter was the one-dribble pull-up, which he could get off against almost anybody and which had a decent (though not great) success rate. He's able to be a first option in the NBA (on a bad team) because of his strong isolation (primary mid-range shots) and post-up ability.

Hamilton doesn't really have a jumper. He has okay form and poor results (2-21 from 3 in the EYBL so far). He's an okay FT shooter (17-24 / 70.8% so far, though I think his previous numbers have been lower) which suggests some potential for a competent jumper, but I think he's pretty far from having one. Nothing I've seen has suggested that he has good touch from mid-range.

Of course, I haven't really touched on his key strength yet - that is, his strength. He's a powerful wing with the potential to bully 3s in college (and potentially in the NBA). I think he has very real potential as a post-up / drive-from-the-elbow type of wing. That type of player can be valuable. But those types of plays have a high degree of difficulty. Post-ups are very hard to defend, but they're also very hard to execute. They require a high level of skill, awareness, and patience. If you're really good at them (Kawhi Leonard, DeRozan, Melo, Barnes), it's a dangerous weapon. If you're okay at them, it's not very useful, because for most players post-ups are a low percentage shot. And it's rare to see a wing with a sufficiently high skill level in college. Barnes didn't have that in college, and he was much more skilled overall than Hamilton.

Overall, I see Hamilton lacking a good way to score efficiently as a wing other than cuts. He contributes in other ways - specifically passing - but I'm afraid he'll be a medium/high-usage and low-efficiency scorer. I picture him shooting too many difficult 2s when he can't get all the way to the rim. Maybe I'm wrong; if we get him, I certainly hope I'm wrong.

I'll touch on his potential as a 4, but I'll be more brief. He has the strength to competently guard most 4s and obviously has the ability to switch onto wings and many guards. His relative quickness would make him a mismatch (and hopefully a foul magnet) driving to the basket. But his lack of a reliable jumper prevents him from being a "stretch" 4. My big concern with him at the 4 is rebounding. He averaged 7 rebounds per game as a junior as the biggest guy (or one of the biggest guys) on the court. And he's averaging 4 rebounds per game in 26 minutes per game in the EYBL. That won't cut it.

Like I said - I want someone to tell me why I'm wrong. But from what I've seen, I'd much rather have Nassir Little, or even a lower-ranked guy like John Newman.

Not a bad analysis. Admittedly, I haven't seen a ton of Hamilton. Just a little.

However, I'll disagree a little. Barnes didn't beat a lot of guys off the dribble because he didn't try that often. Whereas you say "he was oftentimes stopped from getting near the rim", I saw it as more "he oftentimes was too timid in attempting to get to the rim." In other words, I don't remember it being "can't". I remember it being more "won't". Hamilton looks stronger than Barnes at first glance. Like, really strong. With his kind of strength, he doesn't need to be super quick. If he has a decent first step, all he'll have to do is get his shoulders past the defender and then hold the defender off with his strength. Because by the time the kid is a sophomore, I don't ever see him being matched up with a guy equal to him in strength.

I agree that he doesn't have a great jumper like Barnes did. But why can't he develop one? I want you to read the below draft assessment of a current NBA player and (1) notice how similar it is to the assessment you wrote about Hamilton and (2) try to guess who it is:

Weaknesses: Does not have one aspect offensively that stands out or which allows him to consistently score the ball … With his size and frame, will almost certainly be a perimeter player at the next level, but he lacks the polish and skill necessary to consistently operate on the wing … He does not have break down ability off the dribble and he is especially shaky handling the ball with his left hand … His jumpshot (while definitely improved) is still very inconsistent …

Give up? That's Kawhi Leonard - another strong, 6'8", 230 lbs guy that couldn't shoot and was just an above average athlete. Or so we thought. And he's now a very good shooter and one of the best players in the world. He was ranked a composite 4 star and 247 sports had him at #50.

IMO, Hamilton could thrive on the wing in our offense. For the first year or two, he's a crash the boards, slashing type. Hopefully Hubert works hard with him and he develops a reliable jumper. That will be based on how coachable he is. And that brings me to my last point.

Roy likes coachable kids. He seems to really be able to connect with guys that want to learn. K and Cal are great coaches as are many others. But I think Roy has shown he's great at developing guys for roles in our program. He likes kids that come into the program amenable to Roy doing with them whatever he sees fit. This has hurt us with the OAD types that come in with their own individual goals mapped out. But he seems to specialize in molding kids in the 25-50 range into players that fill roles within our program and then go into the NBA with a blank slate of expectations and are equally as agreeable there. So if Roy likes Hamilton a lot, then I have all the reason in the world to believe that he's a multi-year player that's ready to learn and play whatever role Roy designates as his.

I don't know if any of that helps change your mind but Hamilton is the exact type of player that I love being recruited to UNC.

Good thread and welcome to the board.

 

[al would]

Absolutely a great first post .. you and Dsouther may have a future together .. just kidding. Welcome to the forum !

 

[UNC&ME]

if Hamilton projects as a 3 in freshman year and his shot is suspect..that does not help the half court offense/and means he isn't a potential stretch 4.isn't it better to have a 3 that can shoot-see Justin Jackson..crash the off board is "desire"..gravy!..a 3 or a 4 with jump shooting range makes the team a FF contender given there are guards coming in that can shoot and penetrate(Felton and White)...I favor getting the best prospect regardless of out of state-in state

 

[DSouthr]

Yes, this is my first post. No, I am not a troll. Wall of text incoming.

I've seen a fair amount of Hamilton (never in person), and my overall impression is "meh". My thoughts on him are below; I'd love to be told why I'm wrong.

Hamilton's position in both college (and the NBA, if he gets there) is the 3 and/or the 4. Ideally, he'd have the versatility to play both. My concern is that he's not well-suited to either.

From a physical standpoint, he's a "first off the bus" type. He's listed at 6'8" 235, and those measurements look pretty reasonable (maybe a bit lighter). He has a powerful build. His length appears to average (maybe slightly below average) - I'm guessing around 6'10". He's not an exceptional leaper, but he does explode well for his size - he doesn't have trouble dunking in traffic, and he can finish through contact with his strength.

Physically, he reminds me of slightly heavier and slightly less athletic Harrison Barnes. The comparison captures his strengths and segues into my concerns.

Like Barnes, Hamilton has a strong build and can jump. But like Barnes, he's stiff laterally and lacks an overall fluidity to his game. Barnes struggled to beat smaller guards off the dribble in college (this is where some folks might start to disagree with me), and still isn't a blow-by type of player in the better-spaced (and better-defended, of course) NBA. When he did get by his defender, there was a great chance of a highlight; but oftentimes he was simply stopped from getting near the rim. I expect Hamilton to encounter similar challenges.

Barnes was effective in college because of his jumper. He was a decent 3pt shooter, but his bread and butter was the one-dribble pull-up, which he could get off against almost anybody and which had a decent (though not great) success rate. He's able to be a first option in the NBA (on a bad team) because of his strong isolation (primary mid-range shots) and post-up ability.

Hamilton doesn't really have a jumper. He has okay form and poor results (2-21 from 3 in the EYBL so far). He's an okay FT shooter (17-24 / 70.8% so far, though I think his previous numbers have been lower) which suggests some potential for a competent jumper, but I think he's pretty far from having one. Nothing I've seen has suggested that he has good touch from mid-range.

Of course, I haven't really touched on his key strength yet - that is, his strength. He's a powerful wing with the potential to bully 3s in college (and potentially in the NBA). I think he has very real potential as a post-up / drive-from-the-elbow type of wing. That type of player can be valuable. But those types of plays have a high degree of difficulty. Post-ups are very hard to defend, but they're also very hard to execute. They require a high level of skill, awareness, and patience. If you're really good at them (Kawhi Leonard, DeRozan, Melo, Barnes), it's a dangerous weapon. If you're okay at them, it's not very useful, because for most players post-ups are a low percentage shot. And it's rare to see a wing with a sufficiently high skill level in college. Barnes didn't have that in college, and he was much more skilled overall than Hamilton.

Overall, I see Hamilton lacking a good way to score efficiently as a wing other than cuts. He contributes in other ways - specifically passing - but I'm afraid he'll be a medium/high-usage and low-efficiency scorer. I picture him shooting too many difficult 2s when he can't get all the way to the rim. Maybe I'm wrong; if we get him, I certainly hope I'm wrong.

I'll touch on his potential as a 4, but I'll be more brief. He has the strength to competently guard most 4s and obviously has the ability to switch onto wings and many guards. His relative quickness would make him a mismatch (and hopefully a foul magnet) driving to the basket. But his lack of a reliable jumper prevents him from being a "stretch" 4. My big concern with him at the 4 is rebounding. He averaged 7 rebounds per game as a junior as the biggest guy (or one of the biggest guys) on the court. And he's averaging 4 rebounds per game in 26 minutes per game in the EYBL. That won't cut it.

Like I said - I want someone to tell me why I'm wrong. But from what I've seen, I'd much rather have Nassir Little, or even a lower-ranked guy like John Newman.

Not sure I would want to change your mind, your opinion is yours. But reading your post, you kinda made the case for him. No, he isn't a Justin Jackson or a Barnes jump shooter and yet a 70%+ free throw shooter says he can shoot. I am a big believer in shot selection drives shooting % for decent shooters both in a good and bad way. Roy can and most likely will adjust his shot selection ala Theo so that he takes cleaner looks that tend to allow solid form shooters hit for better %. Have no fear, his shooting will be worked on, kinks will be ironed out from a solid coaching staff like we have.

You as well made a solid case for his versatility between the 3 spot and the 4, a trait we did not have with Justin or really Barnes either. Me, I like a bigger wing for rebounding as well as being a hard guy to shoot over on the defensive end. And yes, love the post up ops a bigger wing gives us and a big an that can rebound and get out on the breaks that have to problem flushing, I am down for that.

By the way, love Justin Jackson as a jump shooter but for giggles go back and look at his trey % as a frosh, not exactly knock down.

 

[pln2013]

Thanks for the thoughtful reply!

Barnes didn't beat a lot of guys off the dribble because he didn't try that often. Whereas you say "he was oftentimes stopped from getting near the rim", I saw it as more "he oftentimes was too timid in attempting to get to the rim." In other words, I don't remember it being "can't". I remember it being more "won't". Hamilton looks stronger than Barnes at first glance. Like, really strong. With his kind of strength, he doesn't need to be super quick. If he has a decent first step, all he'll have to do is get his shoulders past the defender and then hold the defender off with his strength. Because by the time the kid is a sophomore, I don't ever see him being matched up with a guy equal to him in strength.

Here's the danger of memory; I remember what I remember, and you remember what you remember! My memory is neither comprehensive nor infallible, but I remember him being stopped quite frequently when he tried to attack off the dribble. Or worse - putting up a bad shot or turning it over.

Adrian Atkinson provided a number of stats on Barnes' tendencies, strengths, and weaknesses (everyone should be following him). Some notables:

Barnes led the team in ball-handling turnovers / 40 as a freshman and was 2nd as a sophomore. He led the team in offensive fouls / 40 as a sophomore (don't have the freshman numbers). Those indicate attempts to create shots moving towards the basket.

Through February 5th of his sophomore year, his points per possession when taking multiple dribbles was 0.83 (bad); his A:TO when taking multiple dribbles during the same period was 4:17 (very bad); and he had multiple dribbles on 42% of his non-break/non-putback possessions. Not sure how many of those possessions were attempts to get to the rim, but many were.

Part of Barnes's problem was his poor court vision and and overall awareness - he's obviously a smart guy, but he doesn't see the game anywhere near an elite level. I would expect Hamilton to maker better decisions; but he also lacks Barnes' shooting ability (which was and is super overrated, but still far superior to Hamilton's). I have the same worries about offensive fouls and turnovers.

Hamilton is indeed quite strong, but reliance on power can be a recipe for offensive fouls. And part of the difference between quickness/explosiveness drives and power drives is that power drives take time - time in which the defense can bring help. Power drives often result in shots near the rim but not at the rim - baby hooks and short pull-up jumpers. Those are fairly advanced shots. If he can hit them, it's less of a worry; Barnes couldn't really hit them at a high percentage.

I agree that he doesn't have a great jumper like Barnes did. But why can't he develop one? I want you to read the below draft assessment of a current NBA player and (1) notice how similar it is to the assessment you wrote about Hamilton and (2) try to guess who it is:

Can he develop a jumper? Absolutely! "Will he?" is a different matter. As a rule, I don't project bad shooters to become good shooters. If they have a high (75%+) FT%, and fixable form or if they're new to the game, I'll bend on that rule. Do some bad shooters become good shooters? Sure. But it's a hard thing to count on.

Leonard is a highly unusual case. He has better physical tools than Hamilton (much longer, bigger hands), but I see the similarities. Leonard showed some potential to become an okay shooter (76% from the line as a sophomore), but nobody could have reasonably predicted he'd become what he became - not even the Spurs. He's developed from "bad" to "elite" in a number of areas (shooting, post play, P&R ball-handling) since entering the NBA. That's almost unprecedented. And he added these skills after leaving college. In college he was a high-level defender and rebounder but an inefficient volume scorer.

If we want to compare someone to NBA Leonard, I think it should be Nassir Little. He's more athletic and longer than Hamilton; his frame is more angular (like Leonard's); he's a more advanced shooter and ball-handler; and he at least has the reputation for being a great defender.

 

[pln2013]

Not sure I would want to change your mind, your opinion is yours. But reading your post, you kinda made the case for him. No, he isn't a Justin Jackson or a Barnes jump shooter and yet a 70%+ free throw shooter says he can shoot. I am a big believer in shot selection drives shooting % for decent shooters both in a good and bad way. Roy can and most likely will adjust his shot selection ala Theo so that he takes cleaner looks that tend to allow solid form shooters hit for better %. Have no fear, his shooting will be worked on, kinks will be ironed out from a solid coaching staff like we have.

You as well made a solid case for his versatility between the 3 spot and the 4, a trait we did not have with Justin or really Barnes either. Me, I like a bigger wing for rebounding as well as being a hard guy to shoot over on the defensive end. And yes, love the post up ops a bigger wing gives us and a big an that can rebound and get out on the breaks that have to problem flushing, I am down for that.

By the way, love Justin Jackson as a jump shooter but for giggles go back and look at his trey % as a frosh, not exactly knock down.

If he commits to us, I want you to change my mind!

I agree that shot selection has a big impact on shooting percentages from the floor; that's why I like FT% for judging a player's shooting ability. Hamilton shot 49% (40-81) with Team Loaded last year. His 71% (17-24) in the EYBL so far likely overstates his FT shooting ability. If he shoots 51-72 or 68-96, then I'll start to trust it more. But for now I can't trust that he'll develop a shot.

Ignoring 3s, he's shooting 20-51 (39%) from 2 in the EYBL so far; in the Adidas Gauntlet, he shot 39-87 (45%) from 2. Both are poor, and both reflect on shot selection, shot-creation ability, and shot-making ability.

I also like wings who can rebound and slide down to the 4. But Hamilton doesn't rebound like a big. He's averaging 4 rebounds per game in 26 minutes per game in the EYBL so far; he averaged 3.7 rebounds per game in 23 minutes per game in the Adidas Gauntlet. Theo gets away with being a non-scorer by being an outstanding passer (led the team in AST% as a wing with a spotty handle; our best passer since Marshall), a great rebounder for a wing, and a great (if risk-prone) defender. Hamilton doesn't really check all of those boxes. He has a reputation for being a point forward, but he has an 11:17 A:TO ratio in 130 minutes in the EYBL so far and had an 11:28 A:TO ratio in 303 minutes in the Adidas Gauntlet; I addressed his rebounding earlier; I don't know enough to comment on his defense, but he at the very least doesn't have a reputation for being a lockdown guy.

We were lucky Jackson couldn't hit a shot early...otherwise he's gone after a year.

 

[FlaTarHeel]

Not sure I would want to change your mind, your opinion is yours. But reading your post, you kinda made the case for him. No, he isn't a Justin Jackson or a Barnes jump shooter and yet a 70%+ free throw shooter says he can shoot.

Sure did.
Hamilton will be a great college player, and versatile enough to play the 3 and 4.

 

[Archer2]

I like what I see of Jarius. And he has offers from a lot of basketball blue bloods so I'm not alone. I thinks he's more of a four than can play some three. I hope he's our next commit and I think he will be unless we offer Ian Steere and he pulls the trigger on the spot.

 

[HeelFan58]

dook has offered Hamilton. The offer he has always wanted.

 

[HeelzLover]

Dock has offered Hamilton. The offer he has always wanted.

Thought our offer was the 1 wanted.

 

[mikeirbyusa]

Thought our offer was the 1 wanted.

He's had it for quite some time.

 

[HeelzLover]

He's had it for quite some time.

I know. HeelFan58 said the Dook offer was the 1 he wanted. All I have read on here is he is ours. This goes against what others have posted

 

[RoseHeel]

Dock has offered Hamilton. The offer he has always wanted.

Lol what?

 

[HeelFan58]

I never thought dook would offer him. Hamilton told in an interview how much in awe he was when K visited his school when he was in the 8th grade and he has wanted to play for dook ever since.

 

[HeelzLover]

I never thought dook would offer him. Hamilton told in an interview how much in awe he was when K visited his school when he was in the 8th grade and he has wanted to play for dook ever since.

Maybe his feelings have changed in the last few years

 

[HeelFan58]

Maybe his feelings have changed in the last few years

Hope so.

 

[HeelzLover]

I never thought dook would offer him. Hamilton told in an interview how much in awe he was when K visited his school when he was in the 8th grade and he has wanted to play for dook ever since.

Shouldn't take long to accept the offer if he still feels that way

 

[DSouthr]

If he commits to us, I want you to change my mind!

I agree that shot selection has a big impact on shooting percentages from the floor; that's why I like FT% for judging a player's shooting ability. Hamilton shot 49% (40-81) with Team Loaded last year. His 71% (17-24) in the EYBL so far likely overstates his FT shooting ability. If he shoots 51-72 or 68-96, then I'll start to trust it more. But for now I can't trust that he'll develop a shot.

Ignoring 3s, he's shooting 20-51 (39%) from 2 in the EYBL so far; in the Adidas Gauntlet, he shot 39-87 (45%) from 2. Both are poor, and both reflect on shot selection, shot-creation ability, and shot-making ability.

I also like wings who can rebound and slide down to the 4. But Hamilton doesn't rebound like a big. He's averaging 4 rebounds per game in 26 minutes per game in the EYBL so far; he averaged 3.7 rebounds per game in 23 minutes per game in the Adidas Gauntlet. Theo gets away with being a non-scorer by being an outstanding passer (led the team in AST% as a wing with a spotty handle; our best passer since Marshall), a great rebounder for a wing, and a great (if risk-prone) defender. Hamilton doesn't really check all of those boxes. He has a reputation for being a point forward, but he has an 11:17 A:TO ratio in 130 minutes in the EYBL so far and had an 11:28 A:TO ratio in 303 minutes in the Adidas Gauntlet; I addressed his rebounding earlier; I don't know enough to comment on his defense, but he at the very least doesn't have a reputation for being a lockdown guy.

We were lucky Jackson couldn't hit a shot early...otherwise he's gone after a year.

Let me see now, if he commits to us you expect me to change my opinion of him in the negative direction? WoW, guessing you really have not read many of my posts but will give you a hint, I don't change my opinions until I have really compelling new information and frankly you have not provided that for me. You are welcome to your own opinions but I will hold mine until I elect to change them based on new discovery I deem worthy. See how that works ? If you think force feeding me your opinions and claiming them as being unquestionable impresses me, it does not. I am saying that nicely.

Hey, don't look at what he is shooting from the line now, look at what he shot in the past? What? LOL

He can not drive the ball because Barnes struggled at times doing so? Again...What? LOL

Barnes turned the ball over so clearly Hamilton will as well? What, I mean, what? LOL

Hamilton didnt do this that or the other thing in AAU or EYBL so I guess Roy has no chance of working with him on that? Yet again, what ? LOL

Why are we talking about Barnes in a discussion of Hamilton in the first place? Are you suggesting that Hamilton is a version of Barnes and because he is that we should temper our expectations of him as a college player? Yeah, ok then but ...WHAT? LOL

 

[UNC&ME]

the facts are: UNC extended offer..so far offer not accepted..UNC is looking at others---wouldn't surprise if another prospect accepts quickly-been done before..the door has been opened for some time - perhaps, kid want the whole recruiting parade...at this point he doesn't feel the same way as many posters-hasn't accepted so...(actions speak louder than..)

 

[viking131]

Fellas, Hamilton has always said that he would take all five of his official visits before deciding. Rather that is true or not, remains to be seen.

 

[DSouthr]

Fellas, Hamilton has always said that he would take all five of his official visits before deciding. Rather that is true or not, remains to be seen.

Exactly as he should do, take his visits, make sure he feels comfortable with where he goes and the players he would play with. Who knows, maybe another kid will beat him to the spot, maybe Black becomes more a wing and he is already in hand. It is really early still for this 2018 class lots of time to see how things shake out.

 

[Steat]

Well, if Calipari offers it is going to be all she wrote.

 

[pln2013]

Let me see now, if he commits to us you expect me to change my opinion of him in the negative direction? WoW, guessing you really have not read many of my posts but will give you a hint, I don't change my opinions until I have really compelling new information and frankly you have not provided that for me. You are welcome to your own opinions but I will hold mine until I elect to change them based on new discovery I deem worthy. See how that works ? If you think force feeding me your opinions and claiming them as being unquestionable impresses me, it does not. I am saying that nicely.

Hey, don't look at what he is shooting from the line now, look at what he shot in the past? What? LOL

He can not drive the ball because Barnes struggled at times doing so? Again...What? LOL

Barnes turned the ball over so clearly Hamilton will as well? What, I mean, what? LOL

Hamilton didnt do this that or the other thing in AAU or EYBL so I guess Roy has no chance of working with him on that? Yet again, what ? LOL

Why are we talking about Barnes in a discussion of Hamilton in the first place? Are you suggesting that Hamilton is a version of Barnes and because he is that we should temper our expectations of him as a college player? Yeah, ok then but ...WHAT? LOL

No, I'm saying that if we get him, I want to be wrong. Because he's likely to commit to us, I want my opinion to change (though if he goes to Duke, I want to be dead on).

I look at all available evidence of his shooting. A large(ish) sample size from a year ago tells me more than a small sample size from this year. He's shooting 20-27 from the line so far, which is a solid percentage (74%). But the 90% confidence interval for that is 57%—87%, and given that our prior is 49% on a sample of 81, his true ability is highly likely to be on the lower end of that range. If we want to focus on small sample sizes from recent performance, his 2-23 from 3 becomes glaring. But he's obviously not that bad from 3, just as he's not that good from the line.

I'm not saying Barnes doing anything guarantees that Hamilton will do that thing. But Hamilton's physical profile is similar to Barnes's, so Barnes is a good example of the ways I think Hamilton I likely to struggle. I would think he'd struggle in those ways if Barnes had never existed. Barnes is just an illustration of my concerns.

I'm not guaranteeing that Hamilton won't be a good college player, because guaranteeing anything is stupid. Maybe Roy will turn him into a NPOY. I don't know what will happen. But I've addressed physical profile, skill level, and production. Each of those gives me serious concerns about his game. It's not one category, it's the combination of every category.

He is a talented player, and I will not be upset if we sign him. But I have concerns about his game, and there are other players I prefer

 

[DSouthr]

First you are trying to use his free throw shooting from a year ago to say he struggles now when in the now he is shooting much better from the line. This is from Jr to Sr in high school, many kids improve greatly in that time on weaker aspects of their game. Most especially those kids being looked at as potential targets of major programs. I am not saying he will be a great guy from the foul line but I am not going to frame my opinion on his shooting last season when this season his % is better from the line.

Skill level, with a kid like this I am going to look more at his physical ability, going to trust our staff to work on the skill aspects, kid is a big wing, could become a power forward, how he is used as well as taught at a major college program is not likley to be how he was used and taught in HS or AAU/EYBL.

I will tell ya right now, if we were to get this kid and he becomes another Barnes, I would be thrilled but I don't see him as being Barnes like. You say he rebounds like a 2, so his rebounding may have to be worked with, isn't that true of most freshmen in college?

Finally, his sr season Marcus Paige went thru a 2 for 23 stretch, didn't indicate to me he couldn't shoot. Justin Jackson was way under 30% from trey as a freshman, that didn't tell me he couldn't shoot. If I recall correctly, Theo was in the high 30's % from trey as a high school senior, that didn't scream to me he was a knock down jump shooter...Point, ease up on the stats and watch the player more.

 

[pln2013]

Finally, his sr season Marcus Paige went thru a 2 for 23 stretch, didn't indicate to me he couldn't shoot. Justin Jackson was way under 30% from trey as a freshman, that didn't tell me he couldn't shoot. If I recall correctly, Theo was in the high 30's % from trey as a high school senior, that didn't scream to me he was a knock down jump shooter...Point, ease up on the stats and watch the player more.

That's exactly my point! Small sample sizes aren't reliable. I'm not calling Hamilton an 8.7% 3pt shooter, because 23 shots is way too small of a sample to judge on. In the same way, 27 free throws is way too small of a sample size to judge that he's improved from the line. The large(ish - it's still not actually large) sample from last year is less uncertain than the tiny sample from this year.

Regarding rebounding - that's one of the hardest things to teach. There are exceptions to almost every trend, but rebounding is considered the most translatable skill from college to the NBA for a reason - you generally either have it or you don't. If he becomes a high-level rebounder, then he's absolutely a viable 4. But I view that as a big "if". If he improves as a shooter or if I'm wrong about his success/struggles getting all the way to the rim, then he's absolutely a viable 3. But again, I view that as a big "if".

To return to my original post, if we sign him, I WANT to be wrong. I don't get any joy from predicting one of our players will struggle and being right.

By the way - a genuine thanks for the good discussion. I'm arguing a stance that most folks disagree with, and I appreciate the legitimate response instead of being called a "dookie troll"!

 

[FlaTarHeel]

Well, if Calipari offers it is going to be all she wrote.

And that will be all she wrote to his career.

 

[coryfly]

I wouldn't mind if Hamilton came obviously. I also wouldn't mind if Roy went ahead and offered Hoard and maybe others and didn't wait on him.

 

[HeelFan58]

I read on another UNC board that a lot of the dookies weren't happy with the offer to Hamilton. They had been to a dook board and plucked a few choice quotes. I personally haven't been to the dook board ,so I don't know. Hamilton is not in the typical ranking range that dook has offered in the last few years , so we will see.

 

[Archer2]

I wouldn't mind if Hamilton came obviously. I also wouldn't mind if Roy went ahead and offered Hoard and maybe others and didn't wait on him.

My feelings exactly. I think Hamilton will be a very good college player. He's had an offer from us for some time now and 247 has had him 100% to UNC. Some have said here that he was waiting for an offer from dook. Who knows?

I certainly like Hoard and would welcome him to UNC. Brandon Slater is another SF that I really like. He's from Fairfax, VA. Does anyone know if we're recruiting him? Another is Keldon Johnson, from South Hill, VA. Several very good SF's in this area and in this class. Would love to land one of those three.

Of course, Black could be a SF by the time he gets to UNC. Our wing options are many. Now if we could reel in a top 30 C/PF in this class...

 

[RoseHeel]

Some have said here that he was waiting for an offer from dook. Who knows?

Don't recall this ever being the case. Not sure who's perpetuating the rumor, but there's been nothing that supports this so far.

 

[TheGLOV]

Offering a kid and getting him to sign on the dotted line are two different things entirely.

If Hamilton wants to ride the pine at dook, get blamed for poor play, get benched later in his career and then transfer to UNC-Charlotte, I say let him.

 

[pln2013]

Hamilton had a great weekend getting to and hitting from the FT line. 27-31 (87%) for the weekend, up to 44-55 (80%) for the summer so far. That's encouraging for his long-term potential as a shooter.

Unfortunately, his struggles from the field continued. 17-54 (31%) for the weekend, 39-126 (31%) for the summer so far. His best game in terms of FG% is 6-14 (43%).

 

[Heeelz46]

Watching both Hamilton and white I'm really amazed that he's ranked that much higher than coby or even higher than coby at all. Judging by their performances on the circuit so far it's not even a comparison.

 

[RoseHeel]

Watching both Hamilton and white I'm really amazed that he's ranked that much higher than coby or even higher than coby at all. Judging by their performances on the circuit so far it's not even a comparison.

Rankings aren't frequently updated and Coby wasn't getting this level of attention a few months ago.

He should be well above Top 30 during the next updates.

 

[gauchoheel]

Thanks for commenting pln2013. Really appreciate hearing your analysis. As you've stated, the numbers so far this year are still a small sample size and should be regressed against the numbers from last year. That's Statistics 101.

I have no clue whether he will be good or not, but your analysis makes sense. I liked what I saw of Nassir Little in the highlight videos, that's for sure. Hamilton looks pretty good too though.

 

[gauchoheel]

Rankings aren't frequently updated and Coby wasn't getting this level of attention a few months ago.

He should be well above Top 30 during the next updates.

Yeah the rankings are fairly old at this point. When they get updated (should be July/August after the AAU season ends) I will be shocked if Coby doesn't shoot up.

 

[pln2013]

Watching both Hamilton and white I'm really amazed that he's ranked that much higher than coby or even higher than coby at all. Judging by their performances on the circuit so far it's not even a comparison.

White is guaranteed to rise, Hamilton is likely to fall.

 

[HeelFan58]

Rankings aren't frequently updated and Coby wasn't getting this level of attention a few months ago.

He should be well above Top 30 during the next updates.

I am a huge Coby White fan , but a UNC analyst said most recruiting gurus still see him as 30-50 range. I guess we will see soon.