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OOTB's Political Thread . ..

I saw this and thought of a few posters here
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"'I have chased every rabbit hole where folks have said FEMA turned something away or refused to do this or confiscated that, and I found every single one of those to be false,' Edwards (R.-NC) said Thursday. 'None of them have been corroborated at all.'"

It's as if the maga trumptards really enjoy having moronic smoke blown up their collective asses.
 
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I wonder if Vegas takes the keys professor into consideration. His predictions seem pretty strong. I hadn't heard of this guy before this year. He predicted Trump in 2016 and stuck with him even after the Grab'em by the pussy tape. According to him, there's no such thing as an October surprise. Campaigns don't matter, either, really. They've used his keys for every election going back to Lincoln and they were always right.
They may take him into account. They likely do if they consider him a true "sharp" with legit knowledge.
 
They may take him into account. They likely do if they consider him a true "sharp" with legit knowledge.
I hadn't heard of him before this election cycle. He insists that debates don't matter, campaigms don't really matter, and none of these "October Surprises" make any real difference. Once the candidates are chosen by the parties, he makes his predictions based on his interpretation of the circumstances, and then applies them to those 13 keys.

He picked DJT in 2016 and was laughed at, especially after the Access Hollywood tape, and all the backlash from that. He never flinched. He said Trump would still win.
 
I guess Hark doesn't need further evidence or coaxing. He obviously knows Trump is in the losers bracket which explains why he hasn't put money on him after all the big talk just a few short months ago.
Where to begin with this one... First, I'm not sure I ever said what I personally "thought" the result of the election would be. I said that I trust what the Vegas odds say the election result would be, because they have actual skin in the game ($$$) compared to whatever blowhard pollsters and media talking heads have.

Second, at the time Trump was over -200 to win. It's rare that I lay 2 to 1 on any bet. Especially one where I have no model for it and am purely basing my handicapping off feels. I was willing to bet you, because as opposed to betting against the House that certainly knows more than me, I'd be betting against someone with even less knowledge than my own miniscule amount. But alas, you weren't willing to put your money where your mouth was.

Third, if you had asked me a few weeks ago I would have said I thought Kamala would win the election because she was actually favored by the Vegas odds. However, that has now flipped back to having Trump as the favorite (must have been all these great interviews she's been doing 🤣). Check it out for yourself: https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president

TL;DR: GFY
 
I was willing to bet you . . . But alas, you weren't willing to put your money where your mouth was.
I wasn't willing to bet you, or anyone else for that matter, because I'm not a betting man and I have said that time and again. I get no rush of adrenaline from placing bets like many folks do, I don't want to lose my money if I lose, and I don't want to take someone else's money if I win. That's why the last time I bet here I asked UNC71-00, who never paid off his debt, to send my winnings to a charitable cause.

So for those reasons, particularly the last one, I have no interest in betting money on a message board against someone I've never met before. If your candidate wins, you can ridicule me to no end. I'm sure you would get more out of that than a cash payoff.
 
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