Just to add on to this analysis, which I agree with, is that if he's a fringe first rounder and ends up going in the second then the team who drafts him has no added incentive to keep him around if he struggles. On a first round guaranteed contract, they've essentially already paid for the entire rookie deal. Sunk cost, so if he struggles its in their best interest to try to work with him. On a second rounder, if he struggles you can cut him and it doesn't cost you anything beyond what you signed him to for the year.
In other words, Tony could benefit from staying a year and potentially getting into the lottery. And Tony could benefit from staying a year and avoiding being a 2nd rounder. That said, if he gets anything close to a 1st round guarantee he should absolutely stay in the draft. That's his dream and he deserves it.
Agreed, I'm talking about 1st round money. I think if he gets the feedback that he will go somewhere in the 1st round (later means better team too) then he goes.