TL;DR is there's plenty to criticize Hubert about, but this is also a very flawed roster. We need to drastically retool the team if we're going to be top 25-caliber next year, as we have holes at every position. The key will be if we can reload quickly, and I expect no less than 2 transfer starters next year, potentially up to 4. It's not what we'd like but there's not enough talent on the bench, and there's precedent for this (e.g., K-State has 5 transfer starters and is ranked). Without a talent infusion next year will not be better.
Why are we underachieving? Three big things we thought at the beginning of the year simply aren't true:
- Caleb Love would be an All-ACC guard
- Pete Nance was a really good player and could replace much of Manek's contributions
- Puff, Styles, Dunn, Trimble, and Washington made for a solid, potentially deep bench
Evaluating the roster:
Guards
Davis: talented scorer but a very limited player. He's not big/athletic enough to guard nearly anyone, making him a considerably worse player than other talented small scorers. He's also not a great passer or dribble penetrator, making him sub-ideal to lead the offense. That means he's best off-ball offensively, but that only works if you have a big point guard that can defend. Love is not that, and neither are most true point guards. So you're left either running out a super small set of guards that can't defend or playing RJ with another off-ball guy and struggling to initiate the offense. Hopefully we can find someone to meet the two way need here next year to pair with Davis.
Love: has lots of talent, but not a winning player because he doesn't have the decision making nor ability to improve his game very much. Can probably shoot if he cleans up his shot selection, but handle is loose and needs lots of spacing to penetrate. This worked a lot better when you have Manek creating spacing; this year (and his freshman year) the lane is often clogged due to lack of shooting threats and he struggles. On top of that his defensive technique is terrible, and effort is inconsistent. I expect he will move on after the season, wherever that leads.
Trimble: it's hard to imagine struggling more than he has offensively this year. I'll compare him to another disappointing top 50 point guard with lots of athleticism.
- Trimble: 6.9 points per 40 minutes, .472/.167/.548 shooting line, 1 three made all season, 2.5 / 2.4 A/TO per 40, 3.3 rebounds and 0.8 steals per 40. 315 total minutes
- Seventh Woods: 7.9 points per 40 minutes, .306/.167/.610 shooting line, 2 threes made all season, 6.3 / 5.4 A/TO per 40, 7.1 rebounds and 2.7 steals per 40. 309 total minutes
Seventh really struggled to score from two and turned the ball over, which at least Trimble's avoided. But even Seventh was able to score more often and showed a lot more passing ability. He also popped much more athletically, with more than twice as many rebounds and triple the steal rate. It's early, but I just really don't see much with Trimble. He's got a long way to go to even be an adequate reserve, and I think expectations need to come down. He's not starting next season.
Dunn: Similar to Trimble, I think we need to lower expectations. Dunn has hit a few threes, and that's about it. People might want to compare him to Kenny Williams as a low usage, limited athlete 3 and D guy. So far though Dunn is pretty far off what Kenny achieved his first two seasons:
- Dunn: 10.1 points per 40, .476/.283/.636 shooting line, 1.4/ 1.4 A/TO per 40, 2.7 rebounds and 0.8 steals per 40. 341 total minutes
- Williams (first two seasons, approximate avgs): 10 points per 40, .558/.301/.694 shooting line, 3.4 / 1.7 A/TO per 40, 5 rebounds and 1.4 steals per 40. 739 total minutes
There's not a single stat that Dunn equals Williams at except for total points, and he doesn't have Kenny's defensive reputation. He's a limited player who hopefully can further improve his shooting to where he's reliable there and can be a shooter off the bench for us.
Wings
Leaky: Have heard a lot of people say he's the least of our problems; while Leaky's defense deserves all the praise it gets, his (and the rest of the wings') lack of offense is making it much harder on the other players. Bacot gets doubled even before the catch, and wings dig hard on every Davis/Love drive. You can't really afford to have multiple non-scorers playing at the same time, but this unfortunately describes too many of our players. We've had recent successful low usage players like the aforementioned Kenny Williams or Theo Pinson, but they both brought some offensive skill to the table.
Kenny could shoot, which spaced the floor for others, and averaged almost 15 points per 40 minutes in his best season. Theo was a good ball handler who could pass, averaging a PG-like 6.3 assists per 40 for his career and almost 14 points per 40 as a senior. Leaky has never even averaged 10 points per 40, is under 30% from three this year and for his career, and is down to 3.2 assists per 40 for his career, falling to under 2 this year. It's one thing to be limited on offense, but it's another still to not add much value at all there. That pretty much negates all his positive defensive value.
Nance: more of a big, but fits in this section. Unfortunately Nance's SR year at Northwestern seems to be mostly empty calorie stats on a bad team, as he's been underwhelming. Doesn't really space the floor, shooting under 50% from 2, low rebounding numbers for a hybrid big, assists have been cut in half from last year, and not strong/quick enough to be a defensive plus. Not providing spacing has been killer for our offense compared to Brady, and he's not making up for it on the defensive end.
Puff: three seasons in, Puff has dealt with a lot of injuries but I think we can safely conclude he's a role player at the ACC level. 11.2 career points per 40 minutes and a 26% career 3-pt shooter whose not a great rebounder and is a foul machine, he doesn't stand out on either end. He rarely looks horrible, but is not a scorer and doesn't excel on defense either on-ball or off-ball.
Styles / Nickel: hard to say with these two as they've gotten so little time. Thing is though, when the rest of your wings aren't great their lack of time likely portends really poorly. If they were better they'd be getting run. Styles doesn't have offensive skills for this level and his negative 6.5 BPM in his very limited minutes is about as bad as you'll see. NIckel looks fine offensively, but i can only assume gets blown by all the time in practice to make Hubert think he's mostly unplayable defensively.
Bigs
Bacot: clearly our best player. Offensive and rebounding stud. He holds his own but is not terrific defensively, due to lack of foot speed and leaping ability mostly.
Washington: showed some flashes as a scorer, though not gotten many minutes. Comparing Wash to some recent UNC centers as freshman:
- Washington: 15.9 points per 40, .571 2-pt %, .647 FT %, 9.3 RB per 40, 0.4 blocks per 40
- Bacot: 15.7 points per 40, .469 2-pt %, .645 FT %, 13.5 RB per 40, 1.8 blocks per 40
- Garrison Brooks: 12.4 points per 40, .528 2-pt %, .587 FT %, 9.5 RB per 40, 0.8 blocks per 40
- Kennedy Meeks: 18.6 points per 40, .548 2-pt %, .586 FT %, 14.9 RB per 40, 1.9 blocks per 40
There's clearly offensive skill there, as Washington has the best shooting of the bunch. The concern is the rebounding and defense, where he's the worst of the group by far, and Brooks was a bit undersized to play center. We don't know the extent that injuries are continuing to limit Washington's explosiveness, but there's a danger of similar issues as RJ Davis. It's possible Washington may struggle to find a position if he's not actually a center, but also not quick enough to defend 4s on the wing. You can't afford to have a center provide so little rim protection. Nonetheless, Washington is showing the most promise of the young players and the only one who really profiles as a potential starter in the future.
Overall
If you read all that you can see that we really only have one player without major flaws, so it shouldn't be too surprising we're a bubble team. The roster is simply deficient relative to Carolina standards: we have a thin group of guards that can't defend, no offensive talent on the wing, and no solid bigs behind Armando.
Next year
We have High and Wilcher coming in. Wilcher could be Coby White, I really have no idea, but the #30 recruit in the class is not typically a hugely impactful player as a freshman. I expect at least one of Cadeau/Jackson to reclass, both because we have little offensive talent and because reclass rumors tend to turn into actual reclasses. So one of them could be starting alongside Davis, though I think absent them being fully ready we need a top flight lead ball handler to relieve Davis of PG duties and a two way wing (potentially two... who is starting there next year?). That's assuming Davis and Bacot return. If not we need a starting center to pair with Washington (who could have more injuries or otherwise not be fully ready) and potentially another guard/wing.
