I didn’t think we would be better off in 17 with losing Brice and Marcus but we were…It’s really nothing else for RJ to accomplish…
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I’d bet those two would have came back to win a championship if they could have.
I also don't think we were better in 2017 than we were in 2016. We just fell short in the 2016 title game thanks to a string of questionable foul calls, and Jay Wright using his guards to post up Joel Berry.
In 2016 we won the ACC regular season, we won the ACC tournament, and we didn't have a close NCAA game until the title game. In 2017 we lost in the ACC semifinals to dook (our 2nd loss to dook that season.) Then we had a heart pounder in the 2nd round against Arkansas that hinged on a an uncalled Berry charge. Then another heart attack in the elite eight against UK. Then another cardiac event against Oregon where we choked at the free throw line but were saved by offensive rebounds. Then a close championship game that could have been lost had the refs called Meeks hand out of bounds.
That 2017 team had heart, fight, and luck on its side. The 2016 team was better.
InsideCarolina just pinned a thread about this guy on premium. (The Rutgers center who is a physical defensive force.)
Last time I was in the Dean Dome I didn’t see no 2016 National Title Banner…I did see a 2017 Banner though…So GTFOH with that BS…I forgot they were just lucky…
Agree with your last line, and your opening points may be true.... but I would disagree with Hubert on that.
RJ was one of the best scorers and team leaders this past season and a big part of that was his ability to play so much off the ball.
EC is the better point guard, RJ is the better overall college player.
All that said, the height argument is ridiculous. @NathanFielder made a really good point - bench talent was not up to scratch. Hubert had a great starting back court but as soon as he subbed EC off, RJ was forced to handle the ball which took away his ability to move freely to get quality shots.
The Heels need ball handling and shooting off the bench next season.... especially if RJ comes back!
Tyler Nickel has transferred to Vanderbilt.
Will he transfer again next offseason? Stay tuned. Same bat time. Same bat channel.
Will he transfer again next offseason? Stay tuned. Same bat time. Same bat channel.
Disagree. RJ shot worse from catch and shot than from creating his own shot. Him not handling the ball actually let them easier defend him by denying him the ball more and sometimes freeing another defender by not covering the 1 at the perimeter and denying the lane for the defender on RJ to play tighter on the perimeter.
I'm going to need to see a link to back up that statement.
Because the stat trackers, like Adrian Atkinson, spent the whole season telling us his catch-and-shoot 3pt % was significantly higher than when he created his own 3pt shot.
Here's the stats through mid January.
"He's 49.1% (26-53) on catch-and-shoot 3s, but only 31.0% (18-58) on off-the-dribble 3s."
Stats through mid February show RJ shot significantly better with Cadeau handling the ball. There doesn't seem to be anything that actually backs up the statements you are making.
"Update on RJ Davis' splits with and without Cadeau.
w/ Cadeau: 474 min, 27.2 pts/40, 64.7 TS%, 47.5 3Pt%, 2.3 asst/40, 1.69 A:TO, 29.3 %Shots, 53.6 3PtA Rate
w/o Cadeau: 394 min, 21.4 pts/40, 49.0 TS%, 30.6 3Pt%, 6.2 asst/40, 2.77 A:TO, 31.3 %Shots, 38.1 3PtA Rate"
Help me out. Does this actually mean his catch and shoot was higher when EC played and gave him the ball or because EC played? I know that sounds weird but RJ could have actually still been getting his shot himself, even with EC on the floor.
The eye stuff I saw doesn't agree with that assertion, but I don't have stats like he does to state otherwise so I just concede it.
Like, all the last second heaves and the final game and such would all count into those totals and it's hard to assert how that skews everything without watching it all and tallying it.
But, it does support that it wasn't harder for RJ with Cadeau on the court I suppose with the extra defense to prime on him.
Then again. One set of stats is only mid January and one set of stats is just mid February. So again idk.
So true! The 2016 title game was one of the worst officiated games I have ever seen.
That’s why I asked. What you were saying can still be true. I love stats but they too can still be misleading. Not saying this is the case but can be.
It's hard to believe that a player can get to that level and shoot free throws like they're doing it for the first time, and blindfolded.
OK, so just to be clear, you do not want UNC running breaks? You want UNC constantly playing a half court slower game? Because for 4yrs now of RJ playing point for us that is what has happened. It is not about liking RJ or not, kid just is a 2 guard in a PGs body.
What we should do is hand the keys to Cadeau, your team now, run it! Work on your jump shooting this off season because your being a threat to not just shoot but make jumpers that are wide open, that are no more than practice jumpers, we are not talking about him having to make guarded jump shots, we are talking warm up level jump shots. If you are not comfortable taking the 3pt jumper then step in closer and take a 2, I will take a 2 over nothing all day long. They left Seth alone to, what did he do, he passed the open trey and took the mid range floater, what did Cota do, recall the Cota Floata? Point being, even if Cadeau's jumper does not improve at all there are other very effective ways to attack when they back off your PG.
Your approach has to be, no matter if we are on the offensive end OR the defensive end MUST strongly reflect the ability each individual player has in the moment. For example, would you have had Bacot shooting a ton of treys this past season? Well why not if the only way a player can be effective is shooting treys, teams can't win with out shooting treys or so I am told now days? It isn't about a "position" demanding a player do certain things, it is about the players ability to do those things in that moment we ask him to. It made zero sense to me to see Leaky pumping jump shots from trey land and made as much sense to me watching Cadeau putting up treys. You play with the players you got, you do not play with the players you want until you get them. That means you structure how you play around the players you have and their own unique strengths, you adjust your approach to the players you have, you do not force square pegs in to round holes. Play to your players strengths, not to their weakness.
Most good teams can slow down your break the majority of the time. If it's slowed, you saw what they can do vs Cadeau. I always prefer UNC to run. It went to a half court offense with Cadeau and RJ a lot. Cadeau leads the break better, but RJ can run it also.
If Cadeau can start hitting a jumper, obviously we want him at the 1.
The question was if you could only choose 1 for the 1 who do you take. Right now it's a no brainer RJ decision.
I think the point being is that we need a bigger lineup. Trotting out 2 6 foot guards isn't very effective for us unless they can both shoot well. Thus, we end up regulating one to the bench.
RJ's best season was playing the 2, next to pass first point guard Elliot Cadeau. ACC Player of the Year, 1st Team All American, Jerry West shooting guard award, career high in 3pt %, career high in points per game.
Every statistical breakdown shows RJ was at his best playing off the ball with Cadeau running the point. Every statistical breakdown shows UNC played its best with Cadeau at the 1 and RJ at the 2. This shouldn't even be a conversation anymore. There is no debate.
Every statistical breakdown shows RJ was at his best playing off the ball with Cadeau running the point. Every statistical breakdown shows UNC played its best with Cadeau at the 1 and RJ at the 2. This shouldn't even be a conversation anymore. There is no debate.
There are 2 main reasons that RJ is not high on NBA draft boards, the first of course is the fact that he is sub 6ft shooting guard and not a NBA PG. But the other factor far less talked about is the NBA perception is that RJ is playing at near his ceiling, they don't see much upside from there. Fact is, same is actually true if he stays in college ball next season, he still is going to be a sub 6ft 2 guard playing beside a near 6ft PG, making our back court once again very small.
Truth is we played smaller than we needed to this past season, we were fortunate that Ingram was able to play as well as he did being what 6'7" maybe 6'8" with shoes, he played with so much heart & hustle. But all the sudden we were playing with a under sized back court (Ryan was not size for a wing) and a under sized power forward along with a basically below the rim center? There was nice talent spread across but we could have played bigger and I think we should have.
If I had to pick which player to start next season with, I take Cadeau, I easily take Cadeau with no reservations for a lot of reasons, I hand Cadeau the keys right now. If RJ does come back, I STILL go out and find at least a combo guard that loves to get out and run that can fil in at the point so that RJ does not play the point for us.
Man, this is UNC, not UVa, UNC runs, UNC ramps tempo up as hot as it can get and dares another team to run with us. EVEN against bama, in that first half bama wanted the tempo up and UNC with Cadeau on the court did to and guess what, we went to the half with a nice lead. Second half, Cadeau plays much less and we see our season end?
When we are out pushing tempo, out running UNC primary and secondary breaks, who the heck cares how good Cadeau is shooting treys? And pushing temp is EXACTLY not only what Cadeau does but it is the sweet spot of his game.
Ya know, it is kind of funny, last year this time we were down to 2 returning starters, a returning freshman that couldn't shoot, and a big man that played very little for us and was coming off multiple knee surgeries. To say we were freakin out is this years understatement! And here we are again, in freak out mode, chill out! Give it 6mo and we will be projecting next season's Tar Heels to win it all.
Then show these statistical breakdowns. Because if it were so obvious, I doubt Hubert regulates cadeau to the bench so much in the crunch.
We sure didn't do better in the post season with cadeau at the 1.
This will be maybe the most unpopular post ever here, but I'll make it anyway. Every year, every coach and program needs to analyze what they do and what they believe in and see if that's best to win as many games as possible. This goes for sports and any business. This needs to be done every year and your coaching and managerial beliefs should be questioned and thoroughly examined.
Let me bring up UNC's tempo. It's obviously universally expected that UNC runs fast, faster, and faster after that. I'll start by saying I like teams that run. It's aesthetically more pleasing and I believe that if you have more talent, you should play more possessions and over time, you'll win more often. That's my belief. But here's the recent Final Four participants and their tempo. (Note: Under Hubert Davis, UNC has averaged about 70 possessions/game in his 2 NCAA Tournament years)
Numbers per BartTorvik
| Year | Champ (Poss) | Runner Up (Poss) | FF (Possessions) | FF (Possessions) |
| 2017-18 | Villanova (68.4) | Michigan (64.7) | Kansas (68.7) | Loyola (IL) (65.2) |
| 2018-19 | Virginia (59.6) | Texas Tech (65.7) | Michigan State (66.5) | Auburn (67.6) |
| 2020-21 | Baylor (67.7) | Gonzaga (73.5) | Houston (64.3) | UCLA (63.7) |
| 2021-22 | Kansas (69.1) | UNC (70.1) | Duke (67.4) | Villanova (62.2) |
| 2022-23 | UConn (66.7) | San Diego St (65.7) | FAU (67.5) | Miami (FL) (68.6) |
| 2023-24 | UConn (64.6) | Purdue (67.1) | Alabama (72.3) | NC State (67.7) |
In 2017, Gonzaga and UNC played more than 70 possessions/game. In 2016, UNC and Oklahoma played more than 69.9 possessions/game.
In 2015, none of the Final Four teams played more than 66 possessions/game. In 2014, none of the Final Four teams played more than 64 possessions/game. In 2014, none of the Final Four teams played more than 66 possessions/game. In 2012, none of the Final Four teams played more than 68 possessions/game. And basically the same story in 2011 and 2010.
So since the 2010 NCAA Tournament (14 tournaments), of the 56 Final Four teams, only 7 have played more 69.9 possessions to faster per game. Then if you exclude UNC, that's 4 of 53 Final Four teams. So 12.5% of all Final Four teams since 2010 played at a relatively fast tempo (69.9 possessions/game or faster). And of those 7 teams, UNC has represented 3.
The trend has indicated that the the more extreme your tempo is (fast or slow), you must be elite in your net rating to have a realistic opportunity to win a national championship. The theory is outliers are bad for tempo.
So it's something I question about UNC. Whether playing a breakneck pace is really the best thing or if it's a UNC basketball idealogy that I've bought into.
Great stats Nathan and certainly food for thought.
I believe championship teams need to be capable with fast and slower tempo - knowing when to run and then being able to execute in the half court.
This past season UNC was dynamic when they ran, especially when EC was the first ball carrier after a rebound or conceded shot. Primarily because of his ability to pass ahead and open up the oppposind defense.
This years team was not as adept in the half court and that’s where the Jekyll and Hyde ptendancies came in.
I believe championship teams need to be capable with fast and slower tempo - knowing when to run and then being able to execute in the half court.
This past season UNC was dynamic when they ran, especially when EC was the first ball carrier after a rebound or conceded shot. Primarily because of his ability to pass ahead and open up the oppposind defense.
This years team was not as adept in the half court and that’s where the Jekyll and Hyde ptendancies came in.
What all of those teams have in common is they can all dictate the pace of the game. Even UVA with a much lower rate was good because they cpul make you play their pace.
What you can do is irrelevant its what you can make your opponent do.
A dookie is not coming to UNC, nor would we want that particular one. Mitchell can’t shoot & we need shooters.
Looks like Proctor chose to return to dook instead of entering the portal, since his NBA draft stock is in the toilet.
I would guess that means Roach is likely leaving.
I would guess that means Roach is likely leaving.
^ Proctor should have never reclassified.
He was going to be a OAD, now he’s in Year Three at Next Year University.
Two years from now, playing hoops in Australia… 🤭
He was going to be a OAD, now he’s in Year Three at Next Year University.
Two years from now, playing hoops in Australia… 🤭
Yes we did, at least better than we have seen since Roy stepped down. But we consistently slowed that pace when Cadeau went to the bench. With RJ at the point we ran the ball opportunistically, with Cadeau he looked to push it no matter what. Look as an example at that bama game, Cadeau played a lot in that first half and the pace got really hot, bama wanted to run and we did to, we scored 54pts and took a nice lead ion to the half. Second half, Cadeau spends most of it in the bench, bama still wants to push it but we don't, we lose?
Man - I don’t know. I generally think this year’s team could outrun most teams but we don’t have a super deep (say 9 deep) team of guys who can run up tempo. Maybe withers and for sure Trimble - but not jwash or wojcik.
Alabama seemed about 10 deep with guys who could run AND could shoot / hit open 3s on secondary break if we didn’t get back in time. And this happened several times even after Heels made baskets in the Bama game.
Is why I said Bama was just a bad matchup for us or almost anyone from a tempo and offense standpoint- especially if they were hitting shots, which they were on in that game - and were aided by our perimeter defense being not up to snuff - one of the poorer defensive efforts of the year especially given the stakes.
I don’t think that changes much iF EC stayed in majority of second half. I just think our starting five would’ve got gassed and kind of got overtaken by bamas athletecism.
As a team we just needed rj to make like half of the shots he normally makes, and play better perimeter defense immediately in shot clock and we’d have won going away.
But in all this I’d still prefer ec or Seth on the floor instead of wojcik for so many minutes
I'm going to sound like Captain Obvious, but the teams that execute the best in the halfcourt (offensively and defensively) are the ones that typically have the best chance to make a run in the tournament. The teams that could execute in the halfcourt had staying power, or staying potential in the tournament. The ones that didn't did not or could not. I think it's somewhat irrelevant how fast or slow you play if you don't execute in the halfcourt consistently.
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