...and well, we'll see.
My late mom was a Public Health Supervisor for what was then the fastest growing, and now one of the nation's most populous counties. When she first went back to work as a Public Health Nurse (after my dad passed away when I was a little kid), she was getting paid next to nothing. So when I was a Sophomore in HS, she (in mid-career) went to UVA for a year to finish her BSN, whilst I took care of the house and went back and forth to my Aunt and Uncle's place to get fed. Pardon me if I shed a little tear here, but I couldn't have been prouder of her, and I tutored her in the math for her science courses when she came home for the weekends.
Aftrer earning a promotion, when I was a college Freshman she got a grant from the State Health Dept. to go to Grad School, and earned a Masters (in Immunology and Epidemiology) from Johns Hopkins. Once again, when she came home for weekends I helped her with the math for her advanced science classes. Meanwhile, I was balancing taking care of the house while commuting to George Mason and playing basketball and baseball (I wasn't "gifted" enough to get a basketball scholly at my dream school --- UNC).
Anyway, here's the point: During all this I was exposed to the science behind Public Health, and when it comes to potential epidemics (or, God forbid, pandemics) much of it comes down to mathematics. IIRC, the benchmark the epidemioogy pros use is based on the "Naught" infected patient, and how many people that carrier could potentially infect. Some viruses are more infectious than others. For example, childhood diseases like Measles are stoopid contagious --- as in look-at-somebody-the-wrong-way and get it --- while normal flus are much less so.
Anyway, if a virus has an infection rate of 1 or less, the it's an arithmetic progression and relatively easy to contain. But once it reaches 2+ it becomes geometric. Now, I assume anyone reading this is at least familar from HS math with a geometric progression --- the easiest example is starting with a penny and doubling your money every day, becoming a multi-millionaire within a month. Welp, think about that math starting with that "penny" being an infected carrier of a virus. Untreated and/or uncontained, just one patient can trigger disastrous outcomes. Yikes.
So here's the skinny: COVID-19 is statistcally more contagious than the "Spanish Flu" (that killed more people than WWI) in 1918, with a higher mortality rate (according to the WHO). In other words, this shit ain't no joke. Now, if you'd like me to get "political"?... I would tell you that what we're going thru now could've been prevented --- easily, as it turns out. But, well.... so much for that. Don't get me started (my mom would be berating the politicians on TV right about now).
Bottom line is, these public event/sports cancellations are happening for a reason at this point. Good news (on a micro-level) is, unless you're in a "high-risk" demographic, yes, the "odds" are still in your favor. And your kids are likely safe --- I'm told this one doesn't seem to hit children as hard --- -BUT the munchkins can still be "Typhoid Marys" as carriers, so keep your little germ-factories isolated as directed. Moreover, this is NOT the "flu" --- it's a whole nuther deal. So, listen to the authorities and stay safe, Fam. Take common sense measures and resist the temptation to blow this off.
If folks can do that, we'll get thru it. Take care and be well.
My late mom was a Public Health Supervisor for what was then the fastest growing, and now one of the nation's most populous counties. When she first went back to work as a Public Health Nurse (after my dad passed away when I was a little kid), she was getting paid next to nothing. So when I was a Sophomore in HS, she (in mid-career) went to UVA for a year to finish her BSN, whilst I took care of the house and went back and forth to my Aunt and Uncle's place to get fed. Pardon me if I shed a little tear here, but I couldn't have been prouder of her, and I tutored her in the math for her science courses when she came home for the weekends.
Aftrer earning a promotion, when I was a college Freshman she got a grant from the State Health Dept. to go to Grad School, and earned a Masters (in Immunology and Epidemiology) from Johns Hopkins. Once again, when she came home for weekends I helped her with the math for her advanced science classes. Meanwhile, I was balancing taking care of the house while commuting to George Mason and playing basketball and baseball (I wasn't "gifted" enough to get a basketball scholly at my dream school --- UNC).
Anyway, here's the point: During all this I was exposed to the science behind Public Health, and when it comes to potential epidemics (or, God forbid, pandemics) much of it comes down to mathematics. IIRC, the benchmark the epidemioogy pros use is based on the "Naught" infected patient, and how many people that carrier could potentially infect. Some viruses are more infectious than others. For example, childhood diseases like Measles are stoopid contagious --- as in look-at-somebody-the-wrong-way and get it --- while normal flus are much less so.
Anyway, if a virus has an infection rate of 1 or less, the it's an arithmetic progression and relatively easy to contain. But once it reaches 2+ it becomes geometric. Now, I assume anyone reading this is at least familar from HS math with a geometric progression --- the easiest example is starting with a penny and doubling your money every day, becoming a multi-millionaire within a month. Welp, think about that math starting with that "penny" being an infected carrier of a virus. Untreated and/or uncontained, just one patient can trigger disastrous outcomes. Yikes.
So here's the skinny: COVID-19 is statistcally more contagious than the "Spanish Flu" (that killed more people than WWI) in 1918, with a higher mortality rate (according to the WHO). In other words, this shit ain't no joke. Now, if you'd like me to get "political"?... I would tell you that what we're going thru now could've been prevented --- easily, as it turns out. But, well.... so much for that. Don't get me started (my mom would be berating the politicians on TV right about now).
Bottom line is, these public event/sports cancellations are happening for a reason at this point. Good news (on a micro-level) is, unless you're in a "high-risk" demographic, yes, the "odds" are still in your favor. And your kids are likely safe --- I'm told this one doesn't seem to hit children as hard --- -BUT the munchkins can still be "Typhoid Marys" as carriers, so keep your little germ-factories isolated as directed. Moreover, this is NOT the "flu" --- it's a whole nuther deal. So, listen to the authorities and stay safe, Fam. Take common sense measures and resist the temptation to blow this off.
If folks can do that, we'll get thru it. Take care and be well.
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