This year probably isn't a good predictor. All that pent up demand. COVID. But it seems likely that transfers going forward will be more disruptive than they were when you had to sit out a year. Most here seem to agree. Examples from a couple of our better posters...
While I'm sure we'll see more transfers than what was previously considered normal, I'm not quite as pessimistic as Steat. But if he's right, then Gary may turn out to be right, as well.
The thing I wonder about is who is likely to transfer. A few different possibilities.
1. Freshmen. I suspect there are a bunch of kids who commit and then that first year really doesn't go the way they expected. So they have a kind of buyer's remorse. They may also be homesick, if they came a long way. Most of the better players had multiple offers and sometimes the decision was a very close call. Their other top choices may still want them. So . . . I think we might see a bunch of kids who pull a Kessler as freshmen.
2. Players not getting much playing time. Maybe they aren't as good as they expected to be. Maybe they don't fit the coaching style or team concept. Maybe they just don't get along. These guys want to play more but for whatever reason they have seen the writing on the wall where they are. Time to look for greener pastures.
3. Kids who are recruited over. Pretty self-explanatory. It's your "turn" to start - or so you feel - yet the coach has just signed an OAD who will almost certainly be handed your starting role. Maybe you'd be willing to back up for another year, but then you are also running into the PT concern. And what's to keep the coach from recruiting over you again?
4. Players interested in coaching. Not as many fall in this category, but I can see kids hitting their junior year - especially kids who aren't stars - and thinking what they really want is a career in coaching. Kids like these have (presumably) already learned the style and methods of their current coach, and now they want a chance to learn from a coach who does things different ways.
5. Players who want to follow their coach. As I understand it, new recruits are free to decommit if there's a coaching change, but what about guys already on the team? Now they can follow the coach they signed up to play for if he leaves to coach at another school. [This could create other interesting problems, as well.]
Who else?
I fully expect 1-2 transfers every year going forward.
I would be surprised if the NCAA doesn't rethink that rule.
While I'm sure we'll see more transfers than what was previously considered normal, I'm not quite as pessimistic as Steat. But if he's right, then Gary may turn out to be right, as well.
The thing I wonder about is who is likely to transfer. A few different possibilities.
1. Freshmen. I suspect there are a bunch of kids who commit and then that first year really doesn't go the way they expected. So they have a kind of buyer's remorse. They may also be homesick, if they came a long way. Most of the better players had multiple offers and sometimes the decision was a very close call. Their other top choices may still want them. So . . . I think we might see a bunch of kids who pull a Kessler as freshmen.
2. Players not getting much playing time. Maybe they aren't as good as they expected to be. Maybe they don't fit the coaching style or team concept. Maybe they just don't get along. These guys want to play more but for whatever reason they have seen the writing on the wall where they are. Time to look for greener pastures.
3. Kids who are recruited over. Pretty self-explanatory. It's your "turn" to start - or so you feel - yet the coach has just signed an OAD who will almost certainly be handed your starting role. Maybe you'd be willing to back up for another year, but then you are also running into the PT concern. And what's to keep the coach from recruiting over you again?
4. Players interested in coaching. Not as many fall in this category, but I can see kids hitting their junior year - especially kids who aren't stars - and thinking what they really want is a career in coaching. Kids like these have (presumably) already learned the style and methods of their current coach, and now they want a chance to learn from a coach who does things different ways.
5. Players who want to follow their coach. As I understand it, new recruits are free to decommit if there's a coaching change, but what about guys already on the team? Now they can follow the coach they signed up to play for if he leaves to coach at another school. [This could create other interesting problems, as well.]
Who else?