Yeah, way more variables going on. Not sure how you could really strip everything out to show what the actual impact is.
OOTB's Political Thread . ..
- Thread starter BillyL
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But who do you think is moving to these red states to bump up their population?The Census report wasn't kind to a lot of blue states.
Census sweepstakes: Texas to gain 2 House seats while New York and California among the losers
The U.S. Census Bureau on Monday announced that six states would gain seats in the U.S. House of Representatives based on updated population data results, while seven states were set to lose one seat apiece.www.foxnews.com
I'd bet Texas will go blue in a Presidential election the next 11 years, Austin and the Dallas suburbs are exploding with younger dems. Colorado is now even more blue with the hippies and mountain bikers invading Denver. NC's growth is mostly new tech / financial brands in Charlotte and RDU which will always lean blue.
I saw this shift as bad for Republicans and the hope we gain the house/senate back.
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Kind of funny that Dems are running away from states with dem policies, because states with GOP policies are more attractive. Then of course they want to change all of that once they get here. Makes you wonder where they will move to after they get tired of dem policies again. Just goes to show you how you yankees are destroying the country.
I think it'd be interesting to see the demographics and the political background of the net moves into states. I believe there are vast numbers of people moving from blue states to red, to get to a friendlier tax / government climate (and nicer weather, too in some cases). CA to TX moves. NY and the other northeast states to FL, NC, SC, etc. TX is largely growing because of immigration and eventual citizenship, too.
Eventually, a bad economy, huge inflation, through-the-roof crime rates, high energy prices, loss of jobs - those sorts of issues tend to impact a vast majority of voters. Everyone needs to eat and be safe and have a job. These things eventually trump a group of voters' left-leaning tendencies.
Interesting in that CO and maybe even TX are now becoming more swing states than FL and OH, which are pretty solid red now.
You hear a lot of people in states like TX, TN, FL pushing back pretty hard: "don't California my Texas". Don't bring the policies / don't vote a way here, that fkd up the state you're fleeing.
I generally believe that maybe as high as 60% of voters tend to vote for their economic, public safety, schools, personal interests - and judge candidates based on these factors regardless of party. They vote for the best man (or woman) that aligns with their needs.
You may be right about TX in next 11 years. It will be interesting to see what happens in '22. I think that is why Biden and friends are full-court-press right now with pushing the most radical, unconstitutional junk ever pushed by a party (court packing, DC , Puerto Rico as states, remove the filibuster, HR1).
They know a little about history, and historically it is likely they lose the house and maybe the Senate in '22. Then it is hard to get anything done. But pushing for these items now, is very unpopular with average voters, and only increases the likelihood the Dems do lose control of both houses.
can it be that we are assuming that those who move from blue states are blue? I would think that those moving to red states from blue states are themselves red. Not in every case necessarily, but you would think that would be the greater trend.
Not when you look at the demographics. Aside from taking a census, which the next one will be interesting, you kinda just have to generalize and say that young couples aged 25-40 who make up a good portion of the new communities in Dallas/Austin/Denver/Portland that come from NY/CA cities generally skew blue.
It's not usually the upstate NY farmer who is moving to brand new developments in Dallas burbs.
Absolutely, we're here to poison you southerners with our abortions, illegal immigrant love, and our radical views that mentally ill people shouldn't be able to legally buy guns.
Freaking socialists man.
With any luck, all those cities will burn to the ground for our entertainment. Right, @chickenhunter ?
I know you're joking, but there is some truth to that. These liberal people aren't changing their politics just because they move. Doesn't really seem logical to move somewhere because of lower taxes and more freedom, then vote for the opposite. That's what you guys do though.
You left out Beastiality and identifying as anything other than what your DNA claims you to be.
States are becoming more polarized, segregating, between red and blue voters. And within states this is occurring, too.
Large metro cities like LA, Chicago, Detroit, Minneapolis, NYC, Baltimore, Philly - are cratering, dying - with mass exodus. Often it can be a move to a more suburban or exurban or rural area within the same state.
People are fleeing the major metro inner cities - and why not? More people can work from home, causing a shutting down of corporate downtown HQ, which destroys cities' employer tax base. Crime in cities (here in Mpls/St. Paul at least) is through the roof. Much of the retail, entertainment (food, beverage, music, sports) scene in inner city has suffered massive decline, too. Not nearly as much reason to go into big cities. The inner city schools suffer as well.
If they can, people are fleeing for a safer, quieter, more convenient life in the suburbs, exurbs or rural life - given you can do and see and buy most everything you need there, without the risks and hassle (and now availability) of an inner city. What do big cities offer as a benefit to draw someone to live there? Sadly, what remains are people who are left behind, can't afford to move, and are hostage / victim to high crime and tax rates, lower home values.
Large metro cities like LA, Chicago, Detroit, Minneapolis, NYC, Baltimore, Philly - are cratering, dying - with mass exodus. Often it can be a move to a more suburban or exurban or rural area within the same state.
People are fleeing the major metro inner cities - and why not? More people can work from home, causing a shutting down of corporate downtown HQ, which destroys cities' employer tax base. Crime in cities (here in Mpls/St. Paul at least) is through the roof. Much of the retail, entertainment (food, beverage, music, sports) scene in inner city has suffered massive decline, too. Not nearly as much reason to go into big cities. The inner city schools suffer as well.
If they can, people are fleeing for a safer, quieter, more convenient life in the suburbs, exurbs or rural life - given you can do and see and buy most everything you need there, without the risks and hassle (and now availability) of an inner city. What do big cities offer as a benefit to draw someone to live there? Sadly, what remains are people who are left behind, can't afford to move, and are hostage / victim to high crime and tax rates, lower home values.
Yep! If thats what they vote for, you get what you deserve. Just like our general election. A pedophile and prostitute voted in as Pres and VP.
As I said before, unless it hurts me or my inner circle, I must ask you....DILLIGAF?
lol "you guys?" I still live in my northeast city and I'm not a liberal. I agree with you though, no one is changing their views because they have a different zip code.
Outside of a tragic/life altering event, the biggest thing that changes a person's political beliefs is age. Most people just get more conservative as they get older. The Churchill quote about liberal at 20 and conservative at 40 does have truth to it. I was a liberal at 20 but as I grew older I've become more conservative to the point where I now agree with more conservative agendas than liberal.
Yes. Sooner or later, almost everyone gets mugged by reality, and has to be responsible for him / herself and/or a family.
ETA: as people get older, I believe they are more likely to take on a motto and mindset of "leave me TF alone. Live and let live".
The state I live in - the local and state pols are always trying to "fix" everyone, get them sufficiently woke on race, gender, environment, etc.
Nah thanks - hard pass - I'm good.
What are examples of the "more freedom" part which could be driving these movers? Other than taxes i'm guessing politics is really low on the list of reasons.
way back when I was doing a local Raleigh newsgroup (before message boards), I had a running dialogue with some halfwit yankee who had moved here to get away from the shithole he had been living in, and yet he had immediately started bitching that everything here was so different. It was like a surprise to him, and he couldn't understand why things weren't done here the way they were done in the shithole he escaped from. You can't make this stuff up, people wouldn't believe it.
For one, CRT curriculum being forced into public schools. If my kids weren't in private school, I'd consider leaving VA as CRT is getting traction in NoVa and will soon infect the rest of our recently turned blue state. But there is zero chance of me ever sending my kids to public schools. But it still pisses me off that I may be paying for that racist garbage to be taught to children.
I wouldn't say it's one specific thing. More like a general mindset. So if you live in a place that tells you that a certain type of straw and a certain size drink shouldn't be allowed, it creates a mindset of government control.
It's hard to imagine a significant num people moving states over leash laws or gov control type issues, as opposed to jobs, weather, family, and general cost of living which are non-political ( I know taxes can factor into this).
People rarely move for one specific reason. About the only time you move for only one reason is when you are right out of college looking for a job. I meant it was something that would factor into the move or something that would be kind of like the final straw.
But even if it's just for a job, you are kind of moving based on politics in an indirect way a lot of the time. All these tech companies and big businesses are opening up jobs in republican states because of lower taxes, no unions and less government interference. All things that are traditionally brought to you by republicans.
And avg job-mover is oblivious or not interested about political factors surrounding business-relocation. Just seems like it political factors are at bottom big the list for known decisions to move.
I'm not sure what your goal is here. You seem to be arguing just to argue. You aren't really making a point or at least a good point.
I think politics is a non-issue in the minds of most movers since 2010. You could argue you that they're simply ignorant of political impact on taxes, and maybe business-relocation/jobs, but even those are only part of the story.
CA, NY were the big losers, but those places are unaffordable due to factors other than taxes.
Could TX / FL be big winners due to red legislation, sure, but this wouldn't explain #6 and #9 WA and CO.
Utah and Idaho are the fastest growing states rate-wise, Idaho isn't scoring massive new businesses and Utah taxes aren't tops for most retirement-friendly...
So i think political angle is the census-moving numbers is over-hyped.
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I think that is pure conjecture on your part and not backed by any kind of evidence whatsoever.
our boy can't help himself. He's a stalwart left-wing propagandist/apologist. I happen to have a picture of him doggedly defending some pinko position or another...that's him on the right.
Your favorite position involves dudes. You can't help yourself, but please don't share pics.our boy can't help himself. He's a stalwart left-wing propagandist/apologist. I happen to have a picture of him doggedly defending some pinko position or another...that's him on the right.
It's obviously a confluence of several factors regarding population growth in this or that state. Never one factor alone, and it is difficult often to pinpoint a primary factor.
I believe the way governors and mayors have handled or mishandled, approached and responded to the COVID epidemic is a real reason for massive movements: from major lockdown states like CA, MI, NY, northeast - to mostly open, free states like FL and TX. There are a lot of people fleeing the lockdown states to the free states, due to the vast differences in ability to run a business, make a living, have kids in school in person, and have the ability to do shopping and entertainment, etc in the open, free states vs. the lockdown states.
I also saw an interesting chart today that ranked each state #1-50, in terms of number of children that adults had per capita. Texas was #4. Utah was #1. Alaska was #2.
NY was #42, and all of the northeast states were in the 40s. The red states made up basically all of the top 25 of this child bearing and rearing ranking, the blue to deep blue states generally made up the bottom 20.
Babies and children would be counted during that span of the ten yr census, so the birthrate stuff is kinda interesting.
If you're just talking about the last yr (lockdown), do you know people who have moved since last March for these reasons?
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