Dave, I agree with much of this, and there is no getting around the fact that Tony leaving would be a huge blow. It would definitely force Roy into an altered personnel approach. And since that eventuality is a likely scenario (personally I'm only giving us about a 20% chance with TB at this point, and even that is mostly because of his disappointing evaluations). I'm normally skeptical of grad transfers into our system, but having a Cam Johnson come in would certainly help us play Small and maintain some size whilst doing so. And if Roy thinks he fits and it somehow works out, then fine.
However I disagree as to this team's potential. IF TB comes back we have FF talent. We have quite simply the best PG in college BB (who also happens to be a knock-down shooter when healthy) who is a Senior, we have our Swiss Army Knife in Theo, and I expect BIG leaps from KW and BRob offensively that will help make up for the JJ's lost offensive fire-power. And don't underestimate Luke F***ing Maye, whom I predict will prove to be what some of us said all along --- a very versatile and producive starter for us by his Junior season. Also don't underestimate what Jalek can potentially bring to the table. I know I'll feel a lot better when JB rests if #5 is handling the rock, and he and Platek give us more shooters form the wing. I also think 7th can thrive if he's moved off the ball. Tony would give us that coveted aircraft carrier in the box who can also run the floor and face up, and it would allow the Big pups to develop at their own pace.
Moreover remember this --- KW is already a "plus" defender and I think Theo is ready to buy in to what Roy has been telling him and step up to "plus" level himself (and of course we already know JB is the Dog). Tony would give us that rim-protector to seal the deal.
Unfortunately, chances are we go into this without the big fella, but hey, do NOT underestimate Roy's ability to adapt. He's stubborn and likes doing things a certain way, but he's a great coach who'll do what it takes to succeed. Remember, most college teams don't have the luxury of the sort of Bigs we're accustomed to. So we'll just hafta play some more perimeter ball. If so, I like our personnel. And if so, I wouldn't be surprised to see JB put up Phil Ford numbers this season.