Coronavirus
- Thread starter gteeitup
- Start date
If November doesn’t go their way I have a feeling we will lose at least 1-2 of the newer regulars.
I want you to explain why your definition of
mortality rate assumes
everyone in US has contracted the virus.
OK, just as soon as you explain how you can be stupid enough to believe that it does.
I don't get, what's the inside joke?
139,659 / 331000000 = .04%, which is what they list as the mortality rate... so the definition of mortality rate is flawed.
Are you at all capable of having an adult discussion without feeling threatened and slinging insults?
Look it up for yourself. See how the mortality/survival rate for a disease/virus/activity is computed.
“the chances of not dying from covid” would be a statistical analysis using a base population of people EXPOSED TO COVID. Period. Not the number of people living in the us. To use the entire population as the meme does.....once again.....assume everyone has been exposed. Those are the facts of how statistics related to disease fatality rates work. You can call me an idiot and shake your fist all you like but that’s still how it works. Feel free to voice your displeasure again if you like but we’re done here.
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LOL, you're the one shaking your fist, dummy. The mortality rate is calculated against those directly exposed if that is the statistic you are trying to produce. It's calculated against the general population if THAT is the statistic you are trying to produce. Remember, THIS is what began the exchange.....
...so in fact, you were done here before you started.
LOL, you're the one shaking your fist, dummy. The mortality rate is calculated against those directly exposed if that is the statistic you are trying to produce. It's calculated against the general population if THAT is the statistic you are trying to produce. Remember, THIS is what began the exchange.....
...so in fact, you were done here before you started.
ahh yes more insults. What got us here is the post that said the last two lines assumes everyone in the us is exposed To covid. Which you denied but in fact they do. The mortality rate and the “chance of not dying from covid” in that meme’s last two lines assumes (incorrectly) that everyone in the us is exposed. Do the math yourself.
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LOL, if you say so; and since you seem hellbent on saying so, there's not much point in applying common sense here for you.
It's a joke meme... if you get the joke (no pun intended)
A 99.96% chance of not dying from Covid. That's information you can really rely on as being reliable.
It's one thing to say "haha, the last line is an inside joke, based on a warped, fictitious pseudo 'mortality' rate ". It's another for you to refute my stance that this is bullshit misinfo which could be spread via facebook by claiming that the last two lines are correct.
There are plenty of dead dipshits who discounted this virus because of misinfo.
I won't be using your rules of statistical analysis. Hope you're OK with that.
OK, so you're arguing that what got us here is exactly what I said got us here. You are special.
Well they’re not “my rules” but sure do as you please. Doesn’t change the fact that the last two lines in the meme assumes everyone in the us has been exposed to covid. To be accurate it should say “covid deaths per capita” or something along those lines and if you wanna argue the benefits of that stat knock yourself out. But it’s not the covid “mortality rate” unless it’s assuming everyone in the us is exposed.
well you’ve gone from insults to condescension now.
doesn’t change the fact that I’m right. And that indeed is “special”
I'd say it has EVERYTHING to do with it.
*no they don't.
https://newslit.org/updates/case-fatality-rate-vs-mortality-rate/
"Finally, a metric we are seeing less often, but still merits attention, is the overall mortality rate. This refers to the portion of the population that dies as a result of the pandemic. This number is typically very different from the case fatality rate because not everyone is exposed to the disease."
This article from an organization dedicated to eliminating misinformation from journalism seems to be saying 'heelman is trying too hard to not be wrong'.
The funny thing is that providing this isn't necessary for those with the good common sense to understand that the numbers in question speak for themselves with no explanation or argument necessary.
Nowhere in this discussion have I said that there is, or is not, a benefit in presenting the stat in question; but stats regarding an interesting subject are generally of interest themselves. And as a matter of fact not too far back, when so many here were screeching DANGER!!! and shitting their pants, I made an issue of just how this pandemic was affecting the overall death rate...and I provided the numbers to demonstrate that this was hardly the Black Death that those who are overly susceptible to suggestion were making it out to be.
You have heard of the Black Death I assume. The numbers of dead have always been reported as portions of the general population specific to certain areas and in general as well....because when you want to compare the deadliness of plagues, that matters.
...or even dividing the number of deaths from CV by the number of confirmed cases.
True. Neither even comes close. You’ve got to factor in a lot of different variables.
Saying the mortality rate is 0.04% is incorrect, because the "mortality rate" of a virus is an actual term which as defined means it is a rate of those that get it that die.
However saying your chance of not dying of Covid in the US is 99.96% is fine to say, as that obviously counts everyone who hasn't caught it, as well as those that did but didn't die.
Shouldn't be that difficult.
However saying your chance of not dying of Covid in the US is 99.96% is fine to say, as that obviously counts everyone who hasn't caught it, as well as those that did but didn't die.
Shouldn't be that difficult.
It’s not though. If you’re 65+ and living in NYC, your probability of dying of COVID is going to be a lot higher than mine is. Saying your odds of not dying is 99.6% is a completely different statement than saying that the virus has only killed .04% of the population.
That's true. That 99.96% is for the average American. An individual's personal risk rate could be much higher if they're older, or much lower if they're younger, as well as all the other co-morbitities. Can't expect a graphic to give a personalized rate for all 331M people though, so an average makes sense.
That graphic only exists to try and convey a political message for the rubes on Facebook. A lot of idiots have probably shared that while trying to justify the fact that they refuse to wear a mask at wal mart.
it isn't a different statement. It's simply that no variable has been stipulated (and therefor no separate statistic calculated for that variable), other than that one is part of the general population of the U.S. As I mentioned in my post, the historical Black Death mortality figures are usually given as a portion of the population....sometimes of a specific area, sometimes of the estimated population of the entire world.
When someone trots out the chances of being eaten by a shark (usually in defense of sharks), they usually don't bother to specify whether their stat includes those who never swim in the ocean, or swim in the ocean only in areas known to NOT be frequented by sharks. That renders the stat meaningless to someone trying to figure their own personal odds against shark attack if they are planning on taking an ocean swim somewhere, but as a statistic it is still valid for what it is and nothing more; even to those who plan on wearing a seal suit while being towed behind a boat off the coast of South Africa. To be valid it only has to be true and correct. As long as the information isn't poorly considered or misapplied, there is no problem. If someone reads that the chances of being attacked by a shark are one in 100 million, and based on that probability decides to wear that seal suit while being towed behind a boat off the coast of South Africa...his subsequent removal from the gene pool won't come as a surprise to most of us.
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Black Death is over and done, the numerator and denominator aren't changing. We're barely in the middle of this thing.
The article you linked above has a conclusion which says "There is a common perception that numbers and data are facts, but it is wrong to assume that they are a completely accurate picture of the world." -- all the more reason for you to not try and defend the graphic as anything but either misinfo OR a joke.
LOL at everyone still arguing about something so dumb and irrelevant. It's impressive even by OOTB standards.
nice post, Captain Obvious. You manage to restate what I tried to tell you like it was your idea, and then demonstrate that you still don't get it. The figures in the graphic are simple and accurate (at the point in time it was created), and they only mean exactly what they are. There's nothing to defend. There's nothing to argue about. Yet you're still trying to make something else of it. You go, Don Quixote. Save the world, it's all up to you.
There are no deaths this year from attempting to rape a bear. Therefore the chances of dying while raping a bear are zero and we can assume raping a bear is safe.
#statistics
#statistics
You are simple and inaccurate. Good luck with your maths.
Covid deaths are 50% old people one third fake and 80% media hype.
this is even more simple-minded and wrong than your shark analogy was. I didn't think that was possible.
