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Final stuff (21-22 season - Part 3)...

gary-7

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Jan 27, 2003
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...and this last one will focus mostly on moving from last season to the immediate future.

With that said, first...
A Last Word on Chemistry: In the last edition I discussed how Hubert's restoration of accountability (Leaky being the biggest case-in-point) ultimately rebuilt the foundations of good team chemistry. Welp, that wasn't the only issue in that regard. As we remember, well into the ACC schedule our performance was nonetheless maddeningly choppy, especially in regards to how the guys meshed (or more often, didn't) on the court. So much so, that folks I trust were privately pointing fingers at different potential sources of the disarray. However, at that point the only source I had was just my ol' coach's eye as to what I was seeing on the screen, and turned out it was right --- the sore thumb was Dawson Garcia.
* BTW, at this point, let me stress that this part is NOT going to dive into any "inside" locker room stuff --- again, it's just from observations of on-court performance.
Even before the concussion, I started isolating my eye on Dawson, and even back when we were trying to get the transition game going, he was often the proverbial wrench in the gears, rarely getting to his assigned "sprint" or "trail" lane in the Secondary, instead flaring to perimeter lanes. often getting in other guys' way. In other words, he was trying to be a 3 whilst playing the 4. And from there, when he got a swing pass, if he didn't shoot, instead of swinging the rock he'd attempt to drive from the 3-point line (the LAST thing I want my 6'11 guy doing), which predictably seldom ended well (not to mention evoking some "looks" from his teammates). Add to that, in general he was maddeningly "soft" inside, and the thing is, it wasn't from lack of physical ability --- he was our tallest and most naturally athletic Big --- it was more from lack of "want-to", and that sort of thing doesn't tend to sit well with teammates.
Anyway, as unfortunate as the circumstances of Dawson leaving the team were (and I wish him the best), being frank, bottom line is that it had the unintended side-affect of removing the wrench from the gears, as it were, while enabling the eruption of the legend known as "Birdy" Manek.

Now, on to sustainability....
Guard Play: Last time, we discussed the staff's adjustments to the absence of a floor-general. The bad news is IMO, that model is not likely to be sustainable moving forward. The main reason? SCOUTING. There's now beaucoups video for opposing coaching staffs to dissect. Lemme offer just one example from our previous discussions, i.e., how we created initial mismatches for RJ that maximized his strengths and compartmentalized his options. Well, frankly I still CANNOT believe that after the whupping in Durham, dook didn't adjust to that in the NCAAT (thank you, K, BTW;)). The coach bud I watched that one with and I were both stunned they just kept accepting that high switch, and we flat wore them out. If I'm coaching against us I'm gonna "flat" and/or go under those high ball-screens and dare RJ to beat us from deep. Sure, he might knock down a couple but I'll gladly take my chances with the little guy chunking 25 footers, as opposed to him running amok with a 6'11 guy trying to chase him. In other words, that ain't rocket science, and opponents are likely gonna play us differently next season.
The good news? Our starting backcourt returns for their 3rd seasons, and historically that's when Carolina Combos tend to "get it" (Dexter Strickland, e.g.). Ideally then, we won't have to compartmentalize quite so much, and (hopefully) will have less need to deploy gimmicks. And speaking of which...

Clock and Pace: One of the consequences of triggering so many possessions with forced switches was too often playing Russian Roulette with the shot-clock. I mean, let's be honest, we pulled some possessions out of our collective butts (mostly Caleb's) with buzzer 3s... and yes, too often that buzzer went off before we got a look. Thus, it shouldn't be controversial to say that model is neither ideal nor sustainable. Here again is the good news about having 3rd-yr Guards. If (called plays notwithstanding) we can save that 5-6 seconds it takes to manufacture a forced switch, that makes the clock parameters a LOT more comfortable. Look, I'm NOT saying we should totally eschew that action --- it's a valuable trigger to pull out --- but it is limited as a default, so hopefully experienced Guards will give us more ability to Freelance and/or start half-court possessions more seamlessly.
To that end, IMO, the ultimate key to moving forward positively is to reclaim our vaunted transition game. As we've grown up with, keeping that constant pressure on defenses with ball-movement and spacing eliminates a lot of the need for manufactured triggers. Sure, there still won't be a Berry/Butter/Ray General leading the shock-troops, but our Guards should at least be Colonels by this season :cool:.

Depth and Rotation: Being frank, this past season was inordinately important for Hubert AND the program. We just weren't in a good place going in (for reasons previously alluded to), and personally, I found doubts about the hire particularly troubling. So, one could hardly blame Hubert for playing things close to the proverbial vest, which manifested in the tight rotation. Just as he made it clear we couldn't afford to have Kerwin's bad defense on the floor for any length of time, neither did he want to risk (albeit talented) youngsters not taking care of the ball or not executing their assignments. In other words, Hubert coached this team as if first-year results needed to be job-1, and that in turn would enable a more thorough restoration moving forward --- that's the way I choose to look at it, anyway ;) --- and well, he succeeded.
OK, but nonetheless I doubt many here would argue that is sustainable. There were certainly mucho (legit) critiques on here about not building depth (and frankly, I find the whole "Iron Five" thing to be a, um, less-than-ideal meme for Carolina basketball). But again, while I can't speak for the staff, I think it was seen by Hubert as a bit of a zero-sum game for this one season --- and that under more "normal" circumstances he would've been more inclined to follow his mentor's approach to roster management. Welp... then I guess we'll see pretty soon, no?
From what I can glean, I think the accountability message has been conveyed, and that the returning players will enter Fall camp knowing that playing time will require knowing and executing your responsibilities on both ends. I also believe that the staff will make expanding the rotation a priority starting early on. I fully expect Puff to make the next step into standout status, and our two rising Sophs to become major contributors. I also believe McKoy can and should give us more minutes as a versatile backup. The question-marks of course will be from the three incoming Frosh --- as in how quickly will Washington (the most talented) be able to bang and go full-tilt?... or how quickly will Trimble (yet another Combo) start to "get it"?... or how quickly will Nickel learn to play defense and compete physically at this level? The good news here is that we should be in pretty good shape with or without major contributions from the newcomers.

Anyway... a few days after I posted the second of these threads, an interview with Brad came out elsewhere, and he alluded to many of these same topics in a way that actually dove-tailed nicely with the content of these threads. Moreover, he at least gave the impression that more steps toward some of the aforementioned prescriptions for restoration may well be in the queue this Fall. Keeping in mind that any new HC will naturally go thru learning and adjustment curves, I sincerely hope that is indeed the case. IMO, Hubert's fresh perspective combined with restoring the systemic foundations of Dean Smith basketball could be a pretty dadgummed good thing... :cool:
 
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So lemme get this right Gary…. No more till November, or no more seasonal reviews?

Appreciate them all, so maybe you still have a spy in to check in on summer pick-ups?

As always, thanks for the insight and observations.
 
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It's gratifying to this Tar Heel that Hubert and staff are at the helm able to retore
Carolina basketball to its premier level status again. With the MAJOR shifts the sport has recently
seen (transfer portal, NIL, 25 year-old sixth year players), the tenets and philosophy
of Dean E Smith still permeate our program and that's a terrific gift.
Thanks for your stellar analysis and perspective Gary.
 
...and this last one will focus mostly on moving from last season to the immediate future.
OK, so I agree with most of this, especially the concerns over Garcia, I think Hubert had decided to start Manek for the rest of the season after Garcia missed those couple games that lite the final fuse on Garcia's leaving. As for Kerwin, while his defense (or lack of) did him no favors when it came to PT I believe his near total benching came from a real lack of work on the offensive end, based on several things Hubert has shared as well as a simple watch of the kid off the ball when he was in.

As for bench depth and rotation, to me it was more Hubert having to play the cards he was dealt. First part of the season it looked like Hubert was working on a 7 man (including Garcia/Manek and Ant) rotation first and then looking to integrate guys like Styles and Puff when they were ready. Hubert had to first imprint his version of the Carolina Way and teach his core group what it means to play for UNC and how hard you have to work to make that happen. Let's face it, he had some hard headed students, especially Caleb and RJ and then all the sudden Garcia is gone followed quickly by Ant and all the sudden his 7 man rotation was down to 5 and it took a while before Puff was ready, Styles showed some good stuff but needs a major up tick from this point on. As well, the Iron 5 deal started to work, Caleb was able to shoot himself hot, RJ stepped back a bit and in doing so made better decisions, and of course Mr Manek did his thing. I do not in any way think Hubert wanted to have to go with that Iron 5 but it was working, he didn't have better options to win the game the game they had in front of them so he went with it ain't broke so no need to try to fix it now.

Our back court shooting efficiency sucked, way to many missed long treys, bad shot treys mostly. That has to get cleaned up, looking at you Caleb Love. You just can not keep pumping up double digit misses just to catch that late hot streak that wins the game. Would the game even be close and need the dramatics if not for those double digit missed bad shot treys? With Ant gone and Dunn clearly not ready for serious PT, Hubert really didn't have another great option to go to when we all know Caleb needed to be chilled out from those really bad shots. Trimble, who I love, should make Caleb take a better view on what is a good shot and what isn't because that is a guy Hubert can now turn to.

I am higher on these incoming freshmen that most, you never know until they play but I see 2 that IMO are starters by their soph season (Trimble and Washington), another that has a chance to be (Nickel) and Shaver I think will get a few minutes next season backing up Bacot. It is to me a great foundational class, especially considering what we already have coming in the following class as well as who we could add to that class. I would rater we build teams organically thru recruiting than to go with the hit or miss of the portal.

True facts, I personally felt after he won that last natty, felt like Roy started to slip. Then we had that injury plagued season, that frankly no coach could do much had it happened to them, I think that just really took a lot out of Roy. Then trying to figure out how to reach Caleb and RJ, wanting to show respect for Brooks but playing him to much, and really whiffing on not using Kessler more. It not only was the right time for Roy to step away, what he left Hubert was a team that was not really Carolina like, the family was not happy lets say. Hubert had to battle that before he could worry about PT and rotations, he had to change the attitude from soft play to let's go find a fight. THAT just took a while, it took this team being humbled and about to miss the NCAAT before they finally began to realize how hard they had to play to win at this level.

Like last year this time we all realized, Caleb and RJ had a long ways to go and a short time to get there, they still have a long ways to go but at least they ended the season well on the way. I do expect the experience of this past season will forge both Caleb and RJ in to much better players but the key is as it always is, they have to take better shots, cleaner shots, not ball is leather shots. I am looking for a nice bounce from McKoy, felt he put to much pressure on himself to play well for his dream school and it messed his head up, needs the off season to clear his head and work on being the player he can be, needs HUGE work putting up jump shots over this off season. You know how I see Puff but Leaky will get big time minutes and there is a lot of guys that want that open 4 spot. Styles, it is now your time to step up and frankly the road to minutes may be harder than it was last season. Styles is a 6'6" power forward and we have a ton of 6'8-9" guys looking for that PT (Washington, McKoy, Puff, Nickel) and they can all jump shoot. Dunn, the heat is on him now as it is Styles, now is the time young man, as Elvis said, "its now or never". If Dunn is in the gym with another of our power forward candidates, Dunn better be the last out of the gym and put up 200 more jumpers than any one else or he will be next in the portal.
 
Great write up G-7! (possibly the best I've read).

I don't think anybody even remotely related to the Tar Heels wants the Iron 5 to become the standard! It was the only viable option at the time and I think it worked out brilliantly! It is a testament that Hubs is not afraid to make a controversial call that could have backfired tremendously He risked dissention among the youngsters; one injury derailing the entire season; backlash from fans who thought it arbitrary or punitive; and his entire career and had the cajones to see it through some rough waters!

I am thrilled with the way the team is shaping up for next year! I think all of our youngsters will surprise with how far they come this Summer. One that G left off is Shaver and I am starting to think he will be a viable backup for Bacot in the event we don't add anyone else. I love the position we are in where we are not hostage to any one recruit, but can confidently go forward as is or add at our leisure from the portal!
 
Great write up G-7! (possibly the best I've read).

I don't think anybody even remotely related to the Tar Heels wants the Iron 5 to become the standard! It was the only viable option at the time and I think it worked out brilliantly! It is a testament that Hubs is not afraid to make a controversial call that could have backfired tremendously He risked dissention among the youngsters; one injury derailing the entire season; backlash from fans who thought it arbitrary or punitive; and his entire career and had the cajones to see it through some rough waters!

I am thrilled with the way the team is shaping up for next year! I think all of our youngsters will surprise with how far they come this Summer. One that G left off is Shaver and I am starting to think he will be a viable backup for Bacot in the event we don't add anyone else. I love the position we are in where we are not hostage to any one recruit, but can confidently go forward as is or add at our leisure from the portal!
What an amazing season Hubert had to navigate thru, think about it, his first day there were a LOT of Tar Heel fans that did not want him to be the coach, he was sure not welcomed like Roy was when he came back to UNC. Then he has a team that frankly, had a lot of issues, players not played well together, some difficult attitudes, loss of key players during the season, all the experts talking about UNC and the ACC being weak, lazy "we expect to win without having to work hard mindsets, fans wanting Hubert fired before they even got to ACC play? Hubert navigated thru it all and some how we ended up in the natty title game?

Hubert had to spend much more time coaching attitude and mindset than skill development and X&Os. But he was slowly able to change those stubborn mindsets, not where he wants them yet but you could see the change, that let's go find a fight and be the one throwing the blows rather than the one receiving them. This team became really tough minded, gone was the soft stuff, the lazy stuff, replaced by a group of guys that came for a fight and is ready to throw down. Does that still need work, yes, they have to now show that EVERY opponent can beat you, you have to play Elon like they were duke.
 
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