Offensive Style & System

[pln2013]

There has been and will be plenty of discussion about roles and rotations with this year's unusual roster - and those are good discussions. But what I haven't seen discussed to this point is how the 5 players on the court actually play.

Our offensive identity since Roy took over has been centered around two things: 1) the break and 2) the post. The break will remain a big part of our identity with so many guards and wings. But what about the post?

We don't have a single player who looks like he has primary option ability in the post. Last year we had 3. Brooks, Huffman, and Manley are raw and have no college experience. Maye is undersized, under-long(?), and under-athletic; he brings some valuable things to the table on offense (shooting, spacing, movement, passing, quick duck-ins), but he's not a "give him the ball and let him work" type; he a pick-and-pop guy and an opportunist (that's not a criticism).

Post-ups are an essential part of our offense. We frequently create opportunities for our guards by running plays for our bigs - that works because our bigs are threatening. Opportunities come open because you have to respect Hansbrough, Zeller, Hicks, and co. Opponents won't respect Brooks, Huffman, and Manley - at least not until they prove they deserve respect. So running post plays for them could cause our offense to sputter, even with all of the guard talent.

Will we embrace the P&R? Or will we stick to our core identity, perhaps to our detriment?

 

[gary-7]

There has been and will be plenty of discussion about roles and rotations with this year's unusual roster - and those are good discussions. But what I haven't seen discussed to this point is how the 5 players on the court actually play.

Our offensive identity since Roy took over has been centered around two things: 1) the break and 2) the post. The break will remain a big part of our identity with so many guards and wings. But what about the post?

We don't have a single player who looks like he has primary option ability in the post. Last year we had 3. Brooks, Huffman, and Manley are raw and have no college experience. Maye is undersized, under-long(?), and under-athletic; he brings some valuable things to the table on offense (shooting, spacing, movement, passing, quick duck-ins), but he's not a "give him the ball and let him work" type; he a pick-and-pop guy and an opportunist (that's not a criticism).

Post-ups are an essential part of our offense. We frequently create opportunities for our guards by running plays for our bigs - that works because our bigs are threatening. Opportunities come open because you have to respect Hansbrough, Zeller, Hicks, and co. Opponents won't respect Brooks, Huffman, and Manley - at least not until they prove they deserve respect. So running post plays for them could cause our offense to sputter, even with all of the guard talent.

Will we embrace the P&R? Or will we stick to our core identity, perhaps to our detriment?

Roy's system will always feed the post, whether for scoring or for inside-out ball movement.

But remember, as you said the bread and butter of the system --- particularly in the 30-second era --- is the Secondary Break. Whomever the 5 is he will have ample touches on the post-dump option and rolls off the trail. The difference I believe will be the ball will come out of the post as much as go in, since obviously we will score more from the perimter than traditional UNC teams.

When Luke is the 4 with a Freshman 5 our offense will look very much like last year's, again, albeit relying more on perimter scoring. The difference will be in Small lineups. The good news there for the Big is that there is usually more space to operate.

One thing BTW I'm REALLY looking forward to is non-traditional looks will give JB LOTS of room to operate and drive. And that's doubly good given that defenses will be keying on him. Dog is a marked man but so was Phil Ford in is Senior year.

Speaking of which, Maybe the best thing about Cam playing this season is it gives us another weapon that will discourage such defensive shenanigans.

 

[FlaTarHeel]

I wouldn't be surprised to see more transition, drive and kick, 3 point shooting, especially early on.

 

[pln2013]

Bradley's complaints about how we used him are generally dumb, but he does have a legitimate complaint: we didn't use him much in the P&R, which will be his role in the NBA. The Berry-Bradley P&R is something that would've been really good for Berry, Bradley, and the team this year.

Oh well.

 

[FlaTarHeel]

Brooks will excel in pick n pop and secondary break. Huffman in P&R.

 

[mikeirbyusa]

We gonna surprise a lot of folk this year including Tar Heel fans.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

On the plus side, we should be able to guard the P&R much better this year. We have bigs that already hustle on D and are quick footed enough to hedge/recover properly from the jump! We can put good size on the wings so switching becomes more useful too. Maye at the top of the key in our secondary break will be a real weapon. CJ will also on the reverse. I think Brooks should be a real good high/low threat as well. I think you will see a great deal of running next year and we still will dump it inside and the bigs that prove they can score or pass well out of the post will see their minutes grow!

 

[rexerdog]

Bradley's complaints about how we used him are generally dumb, but he does have a legitimate complaint: we didn't use him much in the P&R, which will be his role in the NBA.

Interesting I read a scout report on Tony and it talked about his poor screening and whiffing on setting a proper screen when used. Scout said it would be a big challenge for him to overcome in order to find a spot in the league. Perhaps Roy saw this and knew better?

 

[ChiShankCity]

I have almost 0 question the offense will be fine.

In 2013 when our team featured 0 back to the basket post up players, UNC finished 31st in offensive efficiency. Not elite, but pretty good. And we'll probably be better because Paige was a freshman then.

Offense will be fine.

I'm more concerned with rebounding and getting to the free throw line.

 

[gary-7]

Bradley's complaints about how we used him are generally dumb, but he does have a legitimate complaint: we didn't use him much in the P&R, which will be his role in the NBA. The Berry-Bradley P&R is something that would've been really good for Berry, Bradley, and the team this year.

Oh well.

It would have been for sure (makes my heart hurt).

That being said, his complaint wasn't about the P&R per se... he got his ops there. His camp got convinced that he should have been able to Pick & Pop from distance like Luke does, which objectively is just silly considering both Hicks and Meeks were more reliable face-up shooters than Tony was last year and they only did Pick & Spots from mid-range (as did Tony). That unfortunately is an example of the nonsense the Bradleys were being fed and one of the resaons he's no longer here.

 

[gary-7]

Brooks will excel in pick n pop and secondary break. Huffman in P&R.

Yes on Brooks especially (over time).
Huff will need to grow his repertoire but he'll flush some dump-downs.
I really like Manley's potential as a P&R guy with that advanced skill-set.

 

[FlaTarHeel]

^
That was point gary on Huffman. He will roll hard and either dunk or get fouled.
Brooks shoots the ball really well at his size

 

[pln2013]

Interesting I read a scout report on Tony and it talked about his poor screening and whiffing on setting a proper screen when used. Scout said it would be a big challenge for him to overcome in order to find a spot in the league. Perhaps Roy saw this and knew better?

I really hope Roy didn't give up in a 6'11"/250 player learning a skill as basic as screening after less than a year.

Seems more likely that our staff didn't emphasize screening enough, resulting in his (apparently) bad screening.

 

[gary-7]

On the plus side, we should be able to guard the P&R much better this year.

Sorry bro, but I can't disagree more. That is one of THE biggest challenges for Frosh Bigs. Tony frankly sucked at it last season and it cost him some minutes. I'm sure he would have improved greatly this season.

Meeks only got proficient late in his career by gaining experience to overcome the quickness deficit, and even the mondo-athletic Hicks had a bad habit of fouling instead of using he feet.

Again, that is a tough skill for young Bigs.

 

[pln2013]

I have almost 0 question the offense will be fine.

In 2013 when our team featured 0 back to the basket post up players, UNC finished 31st in offensive efficiency. Not elite, but pretty good. And we'll probably be better because Paige was a freshman then.

Offense will be fine.

I'm more concerned with rebounding and getting to the free throw line.

That makes me feel worse, not better. In 2013, we had one of the best wing pairings Roy has ever had at Carolina. Perhaps the best. Bullock and Hairston were really good. But despite that, we had a mediocre offense (31st is mediocre for a program like ours). And a big reason for that is that James Michael McAdoo - who was a terrible offensive player, with a TS% of 46.9% - led the team in usage. Not Hairston, not Bullock (granted, Reggie is not a 1st-option type of player). We ran plays for our bigs, because that's what we do. If we do that this year, we won't be as good as we should be.

 

[gary-7]

Interesting I read a scout report on Tony and it talked about his poor screening and whiffing on setting a proper screen when used. Scout said it would be a big challenge for him to overcome in order to find a spot in the league. Perhaps Roy saw this and knew better?

Well, that's actually a fair grade. Tony got P&R ops last season and was good at finishing but yes, he screened like a freshman. Yet another reason he should have come back for one more season. He ain't ready for the league. That's not a slam on Tony because he has the talent, and I guarantee he would have made giant leaps in those subtle but vital aspects of the game had he returned.

 

[pln2013]

Sorry bro, but I can't disagree more. That is one of THE biggest challenges for Frosh Bigs. Tony frankly sucked at it last season and it cost him some minutes. I'm sure he would have improved greatly this season.

Meeks only got proficient late in his career by gaining experience to overcome the quickness deficit, and even the mondo-athletic Hicks had a bad habit of fouling instead of using he feet.

Again, that is a tough skill for ypung Bigs.

Agreed 100%. Brooks should be decent, but I'll be pleased if Huffman and Manley are better than terrible at defending the P&R.

 

[gary-7]

^
That was point gary on Huffman. He will roll hard and either dunk or get fouled.
Brooks shoots the ball really well at his size

Yes he does... nice natural release. With some college-level work on his footwork and mechanics he can eventually be a Stretch.

 

[gary-7]

Agreed 100%. Brooks should be decent, but I'll be pleased if Huffman and Manley are better than terrible at defending the P&R.

Yeah, Huff will need to control his aggression and learn to use his feet to avoid fouling.
Manley's question will be lateral quickness and recovery coming off those injuries. However, I have high hopes for him over time.

 

[ChiShankCity]

That makes me feel worse, not better. In 2013, we had one of the best wing pairings Roy has ever had at Carolina. Perhaps the best. Bullock and Hairston were really good. But despite that, we had a mediocre offense (31st is mediocre for a program like ours). And a big reason for that is that James Michael McAdoo - who was a terrible offensive player, with a TS% of 46.9% - led the team in usage. Not Hairston, not Bullock (granted, Reggie is not a 1st-option type of player). We ran plays for our bigs, because that's what we do. If we do that this year, we won't be as good as we should be.

We'll be fine offensively. We were led by a freshman PG. We're led by a senior PG who has been through everything imaginable.

Are we going to be good enough defensively, rebounding etc will be the question.

 

[pln2013]

We'll be fine offensively. We were led by a freshman PG. We're led by a senior PG who has been through everything imaginable.

Are we going to be good enough defensively, rebounding etc will be the question.

I agree that defense and rebounding are much bigger concerns, but that doesn't mean offense is "solved", so to speak. Will we be very good? Great? Elite? Best in the country? It makes a difference to our championship hopes.

 

[Heeelz46]

Yes on Brooks especially (over time).
Huff will need to grow his repertoire but he'll flush some dump-downs.
I really like Manley's potential as a P&R guy with that advanced skill-set.

 

[Heeelz46]

That makes me feel worse, not better. In 2013, we had one of the best wing pairings Roy has ever had at Carolina. Perhaps the best. Bullock and Hairston were really good. But despite that, we had a mediocre offense (31st is mediocre for a program like ours). And a big reason for that is that James Michael McAdoo - who was a terrible offensive player, with a TS% of 46.9% - led the team in usage. Not Hairston, not Bullock (granted, Reggie is not a 1st-option type of player). We ran plays for our bigs, because that's what we do. If we do that this year, we won't be as good as we should be.

I sort of agree and share your concerns. I think berry at the pg will help, but youre correct those wings that year were elite. Can Roy Run a different system and have it be succesful? The 2 big thing is not going to fly this year. Is the group of wings good enough? I think they are good, but I think it will come down to roy not being stubborn and insistent in running his system. Remember in 13 it did take him awhile to finally go small, so some of the lack of success could be attributed to that.

 

[RP12]

We are bound to be less consistent since we will be more dependent on perimeter offense. But it will sure be fun and once last year's team won it all and Berry came back everything else is gravy for me. I'm anticipating one of Roy's best coaching jobs of his career.

 

[ChiShankCity]

I agree that defense and rebounding are much bigger concerns, but that doesn't mean offense is "solved", so to speak. Will we be very good? Great? Elite? Best in the country? It makes a difference to our championship hopes.

I mean.... Were you expecting us to be an elite offensive team losing our entire frontcourt and our top 4 forwards in our rotation?

We'll be fine even if that means we won't be elite. Will have to win in different ways which I'm sure Berry and Pinson will be able to lead us to.

Look, we probably won't compete for a national title next year unless Berry plays at near a NPOY level. We literally lost our entire frontcourt apart from Maye. Temper the expectations a bit.

 

[pln2013]

I mean.... Were you expecting us to be an elite offensive team losing our entire frontcourt and our top 4 forwards in our rotation?

We'll be fine even if that means we won't be elite. Will have to win in different ways which I'm sure Berry and Pinson will be able to lead us to.

Look, we probably won't compete for a national title next year unless Berry plays at near a NPOY level. We literally lost our entire frontcourt apart from Maye. Temper the expectations a bit.

I'm not addressing whether we will or won't be elite. But "we'll be fine" doesn't mean much. "Fine" is a huge range, and our offensive style can change where we fall in that range.

 

[ChiShankCity]

I'm not addressing whether we will or won't be elite. But "we'll be fine" doesn't mean much. "Fine" is a huge range, and our offensive style can change where we fall in that range.

Ok... I think we'll be a top 15 team that has a good chance to play into the second weekend. I would project maybe a 2 (peak) to 4 seed.

We'll be in it to win the ACC with Duke and Miami. And whoever plays better throughout the season: Berry vs Grayson Allen... That team will likely win the ACC.

That's my definition of "fine"

 

[Archer2]

I mean.... Were you expecting us to be an elite offenvsive team losing our entire frontcourt and our top 4 forwards in our rotation?

We'll be fine even if that means we won't be elite. Will have to win in different ways which I'm sure Berry and Pinson will be able to lead us to.

Look, we probably won't compete for a national title next year unless Berry plays at near a NPOY level. We literally lost our entire frontcourt apart from Maye. Temper the expectations a bit.

I agree with everything you said, especially re: tempering the expectations.You can't lose the talent and experience we lost and not expect to take a significant step backwards.

As for our style of play, it's not Roy's first rodeo, he'll adjust.

 

[al would]

You guys can temper your expectations all you want .. but my expectations are high. Guard play wins college bball games and we have (imho) the best point guard in college ball returning. We also have the best (imho) incoming guard in Jalek Felton. We have one of the best utility players in college ball in Theo and pulled a coup by bringing in a seasoned sharp shooting wing/forward in CJ. We also have a seasoned group of role players that will provide depth and give quality minutes regardless of their PT or role.

I see this season playing out a bit like last year. I think, as the season progresses, we will see a lot of Joel, Theo, Jalek, CJ and a big .. Brookes or Manley along with a lot of PT from Luke filling in many roles. May well see Theo, once again, being fed the ball inside and if no quick drive is available he might once again bring the ball back out and with the respect that will have to be given to the outside shooting of CJ,JB,JF you will once again see the wings/guards spread the court and that will open up the inside for the freshman bigs to get some chip shots and since opposing teams will have to respect the outside shot opps won't be able to sag in the middle and our guys will have good opportunities to box out for boards and put backs. jmho

 

[gauchoheel]

Yeah I'm really excited about our offense. We could potentially have three 40% 3-pt shooters on the court at all times. Cam, Luke, and Berry all have a great shot at being there. If Kenny fulfills his shooting potential we will go very few minutes per game without three GREAT shooters on the floor. Then you throw in potential shooting improvement from B-Rob or Brooks being an immediate stretch-4/5 threat... It could be raining three's in Chapel Hill this year. And think about what that spacing means for Berry/Felton/Woods/Theo when driving or on the PnR.... We'll just say I'm excited about it.

I just really hope one of the freshman bigs is ready to help Luke rebound, and that they are not a total disaster on defense. If that happens and Kenny takes the next step, I see us being really good.

People said losing Brice and Paige meant there was no way we could not lose ground. Remember the preseason predictions that Hicks could breakout like Brice? Did not come close to happening. And, well, we saw what happened anyway. And I love Justin Jackson, but Brice was an even bigger loss. I think our offense will be drastically different (doubt we will lead the country in REB%), but I think it could be top 10 again. Our perimeter defense will be lockdown and we are (again) starting all upperclassmen except for the 5 spot, so I expect smart defensive play and limited turnovers.

 

[ChiShankCity]

You guys can temper your expectations all you want .. but my expectations are high. Guard play wins college bball games and we have (imho) the best point guard in college ball returning. We also have the best (imho) incoming guard in Jalek Felton. We have one of the best utility players in college ball in Theo and pulled a coup by bringing in a seasoned sharp shooting wing/forward in CJ. We also have a seasoned group of role players that will provide depth and give quality minutes regardless of their PT or role.

I see this season playing out a bit like last year. I think, as the season progresses, we will see a lot of Joel, Theo, Jalek, CJ and a big .. Brookes or Manley along with a lot of PT from Luke filling in many roles. May well see Theo, once again, being fed the ball inside and if no quick drive is available he might once again bring the ball back out and with the respect that will have to be given to the outside shooting of CJ,JB,JF you will once again see the wings/guards spread the court and that will open up the inside for the freshman bigs to get some chip shots and since opposing teams will have to respect the outside shot opps won't be able to sag in the middle and our guys will have good opportunities to box out for boards and put backs. jmho

I temper my expectations when Roy doesn't have a big guy (I'm including wings) that could be playing in the NBA the year after.

I am excited for more pace-and-space though.

 

[Archer2]

I agree that great guards win championships. And we should have great guard/wing play next year. I think CJ was a big addition and will allow us to play a very effective "small ball" lineup.

As I've stated many times before, I believe our freshman bigs will be more than serviceable. With two playmakers like Joel and Theo on the court, we should get good looks. Our bigs need only defend adequately, rebound, and score on put backs and close in opportunities. I think and hope they're capable of that.

Our two biggest strengths the past couple of years have been rebounding and points in the paint. Those two assets led us to back to back FF's. I think we take a step back in both of those categories next year. People talk about losing JJ but Kennedy was a rock in the middle all year long and we wouldn't have won the title without him. He will be sorely missed.

I agree with SJung when he says we're capable of being a top 15 team with a chance to make the 2nd weekend of the NCAAT. I know one thing. This will be an exciting team to watch and an opportunity for Roy to build on his coaching legacy. Can't wait.

 

[Archer2]

This from MSU coach Ben Howland on Brooks:

" What is really special about Garrison is his ability to step out and shoot threes," Howland said in November " He really didn't get the chance to display that this summer because he was asked to play the five and he is a four. The first time I ever saw him was like a week after I got the job and went over there to Auburn to watch him shoot, I could not get over how skilled he is from the perimeter in terms of his ability to shoot the three."

Interesting. Heard he had good range on his jumper.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

There has been and will be plenty of discussion about roles and rotations with this year's unusual roster - and those are good discussions. But what I haven't seen discussed to this point is how the 5 players on the court actually play.

Our offensive identity since Roy took over has been centered around two things: 1) the break and 2) the post. The break will remain a big part of our identity with so many guards and wings. But what about the post?

We don't have a single player who looks like he has primary option ability in the post. Last year we had 3. Brooks, Huffman, and Manley are raw and have no college experience. Maye is undersized, under-long(?), and under-athletic; he brings some valuable things to the table on offense (shooting, spacing, movement, passing, quick duck-ins), but he's not a "give him the ball and let him work" type; he a pick-and-pop guy and an opportunist (that's not a criticism).

Post-ups are an essential part of our offense. We frequently create opportunities for our guards by running plays for our bigs - that works because our bigs are threatening. Opportunities come open because you have to respect Hansbrough, Zeller, Hicks, and co. Opponents won't respect Brooks, Huffman, and Manley - at least not until they prove they deserve respect. So running post plays for them could cause our offense to sputter, even with all of the guard talent.

Will we embrace the P&R? Or will we stick to our core identity, perhaps to our detriment?

Last year we had some trouble punching the ball inside in our half court offense.

It looks like we have a bit more length with our frosh and maybe a bit more bounce, too. But how good are their hands? We'll find out pretty early. Also, it sometimes takes a while for new bigs to learn to keep the ball high and to go up (or kick it out) quickly.

We have a bunch of guys who should be able to light it up from outside. Could have 4 of them on the court at the same time...

Joel
Kenny
Cam
Luke

...plus several more who we hope will also have good outside shots...

Brandon
Andrew

...and maybe even

Jalek
Theo

If we have that kind of outside shooting, perhaps the first thing we need to see from our freshman bigs is who is best at catching and kicking out. Sure, we want them to be able to score if they aren't covered too tight, to keep the defense honest, but if we have that kind of outside scoring, there's no need for them to force shots.

Another factor is rebounding and putbacks. Kennedy won so many games for us with his elite level of putbacks. Are any of our bigs going to be able to replace that skill? Part of offensive rebounding and putbacks is short rebounds. If a lot of our misses come from downtown, will there be those short rebounds that Kennedy used to feast upon?

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Interesting I read a scout report on Tony and it talked about his poor screening and whiffing on setting a proper screen when used. Scout said it would be a big challenge for him to overcome in order to find a spot in the league. Perhaps Roy saw this and knew better?

Yeah. Roy doesn't get enough credit for hiding his players' weaknesses. Yet we've seen him do that oven and over - especially with freshman bigs - including some really good ones like Marvin and Ed Davis.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Yeah, Huff will need to control his aggression and learn to use his feet to avoid fouling.
Manley's question will be lateral quickness and recovery coming off those injuries. However, I have high hopes for him over time.

Roy will want to run. From the clips I saw, Manley will have to get a lot better to fit in a running offense. I'm hoping that what I saw was just residual from his injuries and that he really is a quick kid once he's 100%, but I worry that he may never be quick enough. Doesn't mean he can't be a good player for us even if he isn't quick. But it will be even harder for him with our smaller team that may rely even more than usual on quickness to compete.

I'm guessing this kind of minutes distribution for our freshman bigs

20 - Brooks
15 - Huffman
10 - Manley

That's 45 minutes. Which fully covers Center. And leaves a little to help Luke at PF, with Theo filling in the rest of the PF minutes.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

One style difference I hope to see is a lot more pressing.

We have a boatload of good guards and wings. We can give all of them PT if we develop a relentless press. Even if that doesn't always give us our best offensive squad, if it shortens the clock for our opponents and forces more turnovers and just generally rattles them, it could be a really good style that suits our current personnel.

Obviously we need a good rim protector who can sprint down the floor and stand guard while the press does its job. Brooks or Huff look like they can do that.

 

[gary-7]

Roy will want to run. From the clips I saw, Manley will have to get a lot better to fit in a running offense. I'm hoping that what I saw was just residual from his injuries and that he really is a quick kid once he's 100%, but I worry that he may never be quick enough. Doesn't mean he can't be a good player for us even if he isn't quick. But it will be even harder for him with our smaller team that may rely even more than usual on quickness to compete.

I'm guessing this kind of minutes distribution for our freshman bigs

20 - Brooks
15 - Huffman
10 - Manley

That's 45 minutes. Which fully covers Center. And leaves a little to help Luke at PF, with Theo filling in the rest of the PF minutes.

I'm not sure their minutes will end up adding up to 40 when all is said and done.

 

[gary-7]

I agree that defense and rebounding are much bigger concerns, but that doesn't mean offense is "solved", so to speak. Will we be very good? Great? Elite? Best in the country? It makes a difference to our championship hopes.

While there have been legitimate concerns expressed ITT, I'm not sure why there's a default to pessimism on the offensive end. This time last year some were wringing hands that we couldn't be elite without Brice and Marcus, which of course was unfounded since we had guys coming back who would be a year older and better. That is true again this year, and now aided by adding another experienced scorer and an elite Freshman... plus most importantly, we have the best PG in college basketball.

 

[gauchoheel]

I'm not sure their minutes will end up adding up to 40 when all is said and done.

Do you see Luke playing some 5? Would be interesting.