OOTB Carolina basketball discussion thread
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In all seriousness, there's two reasons why UNC bball isn't recruiting well:
1). UNC players are not turning into NBA superstars. Argue this all you want, but it's the truth. Our players are not turning into the caliber of stars that John Wall, Kyrie Irving, Karl Anthony Towns, Anthony Davis, Jahlil Okafor, etc etc etc etc. We have Barnes and Green and that's it.....and those both happen to be very quiet, soft-spoken "faceless" star players.
2). Roy won't swallow his pride put an honest effort into recruiting OAD-caliber players. He is too stubborn.
1). UNC players are not turning into NBA superstars. Argue this all you want, but it's the truth. Our players are not turning into the caliber of stars that John Wall, Kyrie Irving, Karl Anthony Towns, Anthony Davis, Jahlil Okafor, etc etc etc etc. We have Barnes and Green and that's it.....and those both happen to be very quiet, soft-spoken "faceless" star players.
2). Roy won't swallow his pride put an honest effort into recruiting OAD-caliber players. He is too stubborn.
He's recruiting them. It's the first factor you mentioned that keep them from landing in chapel hill.
Really? Not only does he offer them, but he recruits them hard. You're correct on your first point and the NCAA stuff has hurt as well, but your second point belongs on radar.
The key phrase in my post was "honest effort." He's recruiting them, sure, but he's not giving it a 100% interest. Listen to him speak on things like the Tar Heel Tour in the spring and stuff like that; the dude despises the OAD concept and just will not dive headfirst into recruiting guys who are likely to bolt after one season. He much prefers a Brice Johnson who will develop into a scary good player, but only after putting in 3-4 seasons worth of work.
Agree to disagree. I'm going on things I've heard from the man's own mouth.
Let me state it again: he offers and recruits OAD-caliber players but he doesn't do it with the "all in" fervor that Calipari and K and other coaches recruit OAD-caliber players. He probably tells guys straight-up that they're not guaranteed minutes because the older players will have seniority.
I could be wrong and just don't remember, but didn't he say he really wanted Brandon Ingram and recruited him hard?
Both points have validity. On the 1st point : We aren't getting players that have the potential to be NBA superstars.
On the second point: Very few of the teams we are losing out to lately have much pedigree at all.
Me too. Most recent example
“I don’t know that I’ve ever worked a guy as long or as hard as we did Brandon, because we saw him as a sophomore and we started working him hard then.”
http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/unc/unc-now/article60812721.html
I'm not disputing that. I'm saying that in general, he doesn't recruit OAD-caliber players with a 100% committed effort. Ingram was seen as a "can't miss" talent, even beyond being a 'normal' OAD guy.
He said to a room full of Ram Clubs members in May of 2015, "I would prefer not to recruit one-and-done guys." He said he likes guys who stay at least two, but preferably at least three, seasons. He did add the obligatory "it would be nice to sprinkle in a one-year guy from time to time" but let's face it....if your heart is against something but you have to do it anyway, you're not going to put your total, complete, full effort into it. It's human nature.
I think our 17 class will be pretty solid. I think PJ Washington is very interested in us and I'm sure some other big men will shake out throughout the rest of the summer and into the fall. I think we have a real shot at Nick Weatherspoon (who I love).
I also think our recruiting struggles are a bit overstated. Over the weekend, I was just looking around and there has only been 1 year since Roy's return that we have signed 2 or more players in the top 10. Some have said it's the NCAA mess and others have said it's Roy's style and his loyalty to upperclassmen that have "hurt" our recruiting. And I think those things have played a part. But let's examine this further.
2004 - one signee - Marv at #8.
2005 - Hansbrough is the only 5 star (ranked #8) and then three 4 star recruits in Green (#25), Ginyard (#36) and Frasor (#38). We also signed 2 star Mike Copeland (#436)
2006 - Our big year - Roy's best class (from a rankings standpoint). Three 5 stars in Wright (#3), Lawson (#7) and Ellington (#9) and then a couple 4 star guys in Thompson (#43) and Stepheson (#48) and Will Graves (#84).
2007 - No one signed - swung and missed on K. Love.
2008 - Two 5 star signees in Ed Davis (#8) and Zeller (#16) along with one 4 star in LDII (#46) and a 3 star in Watts (#256).
2009 - One 5 star in Henson (#5) and four 4 star guys in Strickland (#27), McDonald (#43) and the Wears (#42 and #44).
2010 - Barnes (#1) and Bullock (#15) were both 5 star prospects and Marshall was a 4 star (#26)
2011 - We had two 5 star prospects in JMM (#6) and Hairston (#13) and then we had a 3 star in Dez Hubert (#124) and then two not ranked guys in Simmons and Stillman.
2012 - Zero 5 stars. All four signees were 4 star prospects - Paige (#31), Johnson (#45), Joel James (#60) and Tokoto (#67).
2013 - Hicks (#16) is the only 5 star prospect along with 4 star Meeks (#58) and a 3 star in Britt (#121).
2014 - Two 5 star prospects in Jackson (#9) and Pinson (#15) and one 4 star in Berry (#30).
2015 - Kenny Williams was a 4 star (#97) and Maye was a 3 star (#156).
2016 - Bradley is a 5 star (#26) and Woods (#48) and Robinson (#60) are 4 stars .
2017 - Felton is a 4 star now but has been a 5 star and could be there again by the time he enrolls.
So, if you average the rankings of each class, this is what you get:
2004 - 1 signed - average of #8
2005 - 5 signed although for these purposes I'm not factoring in the Mike Copelands - so 4 signed at an average of #26
2006 - 6 signed at an average of #31
2007 - none signed
2008 - 4 signed (I am counting watts because he was a player Roy depended on to some degree) at an average of #81 (#23 without Watts factored in)
2009 - 5 signed for an average of #32
2010 - 3 signed with an average of #14
2011 - 3 signed with an average of #47 (not factoring Stillman or Simmons but I am factoring Hubert)
2012 - 4 signed for an average of #51
2013 - 3 signed for an average of #65
2014 - 3 signed for an average of #18
2015 - 2 signed for an average of #126
2016 - 3 signed for an average of #44
So what does all this mean? To me it means that people are overstating our recruiting misses of the last several years. There's really no difference in the recruiting pre-academic scandal and post. I think our fans overreacting to recruiting misses is simply a product of duke and UK signing classes that have never really been seen before as a result of maximizing the OAD era. Roy never recruited in a fashion that suits the OAD player. And that was ok before the OAD era. But since, only K and Cal have assembled those ridiculous classes with regularity of multiple top 10-15 players.
So while our recruiting may not be what you want it to be, please stop with the "I wish we could get back to the level before the academic scandal." Because we are there. we never left there (except for 2015, of course).
I also think our recruiting struggles are a bit overstated. Over the weekend, I was just looking around and there has only been 1 year since Roy's return that we have signed 2 or more players in the top 10. Some have said it's the NCAA mess and others have said it's Roy's style and his loyalty to upperclassmen that have "hurt" our recruiting. And I think those things have played a part. But let's examine this further.
2004 - one signee - Marv at #8.
2005 - Hansbrough is the only 5 star (ranked #8) and then three 4 star recruits in Green (#25), Ginyard (#36) and Frasor (#38). We also signed 2 star Mike Copeland (#436)
2006 - Our big year - Roy's best class (from a rankings standpoint). Three 5 stars in Wright (#3), Lawson (#7) and Ellington (#9) and then a couple 4 star guys in Thompson (#43) and Stepheson (#48) and Will Graves (#84).
2007 - No one signed - swung and missed on K. Love.
2008 - Two 5 star signees in Ed Davis (#8) and Zeller (#16) along with one 4 star in LDII (#46) and a 3 star in Watts (#256).
2009 - One 5 star in Henson (#5) and four 4 star guys in Strickland (#27), McDonald (#43) and the Wears (#42 and #44).
2010 - Barnes (#1) and Bullock (#15) were both 5 star prospects and Marshall was a 4 star (#26)
2011 - We had two 5 star prospects in JMM (#6) and Hairston (#13) and then we had a 3 star in Dez Hubert (#124) and then two not ranked guys in Simmons and Stillman.
2012 - Zero 5 stars. All four signees were 4 star prospects - Paige (#31), Johnson (#45), Joel James (#60) and Tokoto (#67).
2013 - Hicks (#16) is the only 5 star prospect along with 4 star Meeks (#58) and a 3 star in Britt (#121).
2014 - Two 5 star prospects in Jackson (#9) and Pinson (#15) and one 4 star in Berry (#30).
2015 - Kenny Williams was a 4 star (#97) and Maye was a 3 star (#156).
2016 - Bradley is a 5 star (#26) and Woods (#48) and Robinson (#60) are 4 stars .
2017 - Felton is a 4 star now but has been a 5 star and could be there again by the time he enrolls.
So, if you average the rankings of each class, this is what you get:
2004 - 1 signed - average of #8
2005 - 5 signed although for these purposes I'm not factoring in the Mike Copelands - so 4 signed at an average of #26
2006 - 6 signed at an average of #31
2007 - none signed
2008 - 4 signed (I am counting watts because he was a player Roy depended on to some degree) at an average of #81 (#23 without Watts factored in)
2009 - 5 signed for an average of #32
2010 - 3 signed with an average of #14
2011 - 3 signed with an average of #47 (not factoring Stillman or Simmons but I am factoring Hubert)
2012 - 4 signed for an average of #51
2013 - 3 signed for an average of #65
2014 - 3 signed for an average of #18
2015 - 2 signed for an average of #126
2016 - 3 signed for an average of #44
So what does all this mean? To me it means that people are overstating our recruiting misses of the last several years. There's really no difference in the recruiting pre-academic scandal and post. I think our fans overreacting to recruiting misses is simply a product of duke and UK signing classes that have never really been seen before as a result of maximizing the OAD era. Roy never recruited in a fashion that suits the OAD player. And that was ok before the OAD era. But since, only K and Cal have assembled those ridiculous classes with regularity of multiple top 10-15 players.
So while our recruiting may not be what you want it to be, please stop with the "I wish we could get back to the level before the academic scandal." Because we are there. we never left there (except for 2015, of course).
This is a huge part of it, no doubt. It's like when your 'friend' who's more your rival than your friend gets a new, super hot girlfriend. There's nothing wrong with your long-time girlfriend, but looking at your 'friend's new girl makes you crinkle up your nose when you look at your girl and be like "babe, you thinking about joining a gym? What's up?"
...later tonight your girl friend walks by your computer which has been left up and thinks Huh..wonder why that was the analogy you came up with.
Geez, I try to bring some laughs to a serious situation and y'all throw it back in my face 
My friends don't "date" so the analogy was made up lol.
My friends don't "date" so the analogy was made up lol.
I think that is a good way to describe how Roy recruits the OAD player. He wants them and goes after them hard, but his message is not "I want you to play in the NBA in 12 months." That's what the recruits want to hear in today's world. Roy's approach is more old school and recruits don't care about it as much.
So like I said...........he doesn't put his full effort into it. He's not an idiot, he knows he needs to say some things they want to hear. But he won't do that. He sticks with his old school principles.
It sorta just feel like Roy can't wait to say "see, I told you I don't like recruiting OADs!!" the second one commits to a different school.
What do they do? Are they celibate? I heard that's a new thing for your generation.
But is this the best thing for us in the long run? To have Uk and dook constantly reel in 3-4 5 stars per year while we're left out in the cold?
LOL bruh. They hook up. They don't date.
Recent UK and Duke championships says this is probably not a good thing, no.
I completely agree with your thoughts regarding how Roy views OAD players. He has straight up stated that when he recruits a player he tells them he wants them to imagine their senior year and work backwards from that.
Maybe. Maybe not. But some of y'all act like there's something we can do about it. OAD kids don't want to play for Roy. That's as plainly stated as can be. Roy knows this and is fine with this. If you're suggesting letting Roy go, I would not support that. If you're suggesting having a discussion and sharing your thoughts with Roy, good luck.
So is everything a one night stand (NTTAWWT)? What happens if a buddy of yours "hooks up" with a broad and wants to do it again? Can he do that? And if they hook up several times does it ever get referred to as "dating"?
No, he puts the full effort in, he's just not willing to change how he recruits. You don't have to change your approach to put your full effort into it. I think in his mind he believes that at some point these kids are going to listen to him. He's said the NCAA stuff has cost him recruits, so I think in his mind once that is completely over with they will listen to him again. That will help some, but I don't expect to be bringing in UK/duke type of classes.
I agree with THN on this. He may say he puts the effort in and I'm sure he stays in close touch with those kids. But he's not telling them what they want to hear. And he's not going to. That's what THN means when he says Roy isn't putting in the max effort. Putting in the max effort would mean being amenable to changing your style to suit a particular recruit here and there. That's not Roy. If they're a OAD player, they're going to be OAD doing it exactly the way Roy wants it done.
To me, dating means there's exclusivity. That isn't the case with my buddies. They may hook up with a girl multiple times, but they are usually talking to other options as well. As soon as the girl inquires "what are we?" they'll usually back off.
Depends on the guy. Some are genuinely looking for a girl to date seriously. Others are just looking for play.
Lol I am in no way suggesting we get rid of Roy, nor do I have the capacity to share my thoughts with the man. I just hate losing out to WKU and Illinois.
Yeah that's exactly what I mean. Roy is stubborn as hell. This isn't a new development. The man routinely insults the entire fanbase in press conferences by saying something like "no one loves Carolina basketball as much as me." That's such an ignorant, arrogant to say, but no one calls him out on it because they know it's just Roy being Roy. The man won't change, ever. He's set in his ways. That's mostly a good thing for UNC, but it's also a bad thing with respect to certain things (like recruiting OADs)
It's not good, but I'm not really concerned about it. For all of the success Cal has had in recruiting, he has one championship to show for it. I think that was one of his most experienced teams too. The way the NCAA tourney is set up the best talent doesn't always win. You need some experience too.
I understand. I think the only thing that has changed in recruiting other than the OAD system is that more schools have a chance at blue chip players these days. And I think there are a variety of reasons for that. There's so much coverage of sports now that if you're good enough, you can get attention playing at any school. It used to be you had to play for a blue blood or at least one of the bigger programs if you had aspirations of playing pro ball. But with social media and just the attention college basketball gets now, they can play anywhere. Also, many of these guys create a name for themselves before they even enter college. AAU ball (as awful as it is) has exploded and NBA GMs watch those guys instead of scouting college games these days.
Ok. I understand now. For people my age, to use the word dating didn't automatically mean "exclusivity". It might have for her, but rarely for me.
That's fine with me. That just means that two people are wrong and I'm right. IMO, that's a fact.
GMAGDMFB
I'm never wrong when it comes to sports or politics. Save yourself some trouble and just accep that.
Just catching up on this thread. So essentially everyone agrees Roy is the reason why we're not getting top talent... but yet no one questions if getting new blood in the coaching seat would be an overall win for the program?
I think Brad Stevens is somewhat of a pipe dream, but if he were to step in for Roy today, I think it's net neutral for the next 2 years, and then a big benefit from then onwards.
Roy's in game coaching leaves much to be desired. The thing he has hung his coaching hat on his entire career is his recruiting. If he's no longer a top 5 recruiting coach in the nation, he may have lost his luster. Tough to rip on the guy after getting to the National Championship game last year - and I think that NC game appearance bought him as much time now as he wants (if he didn't already have that anyways - I know UNC will never "fire" Roy, but they may have asked him to step down in a year or two if not for that FF and NC game appearance). But if a new coach is what is needed to get elite talent, I must say I'm starting to lean that way. If Roy can get to a FF every couple of years with his style, great, I'd even prefer it that way. But if we're signing up for another 7 year drought from the FF - I'd like to look at other options.
I think Brad Stevens is somewhat of a pipe dream, but if he were to step in for Roy today, I think it's net neutral for the next 2 years, and then a big benefit from then onwards.
Roy's in game coaching leaves much to be desired. The thing he has hung his coaching hat on his entire career is his recruiting. If he's no longer a top 5 recruiting coach in the nation, he may have lost his luster. Tough to rip on the guy after getting to the National Championship game last year - and I think that NC game appearance bought him as much time now as he wants (if he didn't already have that anyways - I know UNC will never "fire" Roy, but they may have asked him to step down in a year or two if not for that FF and NC game appearance). But if a new coach is what is needed to get elite talent, I must say I'm starting to lean that way. If Roy can get to a FF every couple of years with his style, great, I'd even prefer it that way. But if we're signing up for another 7 year drought from the FF - I'd like to look at other options.
One thing that I notice from your list is we just don't seem to get any NY/NJ guys with any frequency any more. Also Roy doesn't recruit players with handlers and they are usually 5 stars so we are out there.
The biggest mistake schools make when it comes to coaching is getting rid of a coach before having a better one in place. I don't think there is anyone out there right now that is better than Roy who would take the job. Stevens isn't going to happen, so who does that leave you with?
Agreed. I wouldn't want them to let go of Roy before having a better option in place. I was more just surprised that no one seemed to indicate that there are potentially better options out there that we could find (before making the move of course). It'd be better to start the search now, rather than wait until it needs to be done.
If everyone's content getting so-so recruiting classes, then be my guest. I just find it funny that we hear complaints about the recruiting classes - but changing the guy that creates those recruiting classes isn't an option. That indicates to me that people don't think the UNC brand is strong enough to get top notch recruits if given a different approach by the recruiter - which is a stance that I don't tend to agree with.
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