No. But if Theo hadn't already shown the versatility to play multiple positions and was just seen as a SF, then I would have said going after Knox was recruiting over Theo.
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And hypothetically, if Knox had been a big upgrade over Theo, would you have had a problem with that? I find it hard to understand that some would rather UNC start an inferior player out of some sense of loyalty. Roy is not promising anyone a starting job when they come here. They come to a top school to compete with the best of the best. Why should Theo get a guaranteed starting spot as a senior?
Don't get me wrong, Theo is one of our best players and I doubt Knox will be better than him, but if Roy did have 5 better guys I think Theo should be the sixth man. He doesn't deserve a starting spot, he has to earn it.
Even as good as we were in 2009, the odds of us winning it after the NCAAT seedings were announced were still under 25%. I mean even if you assume the odds of winning the first round are 100% and the next round's odds are 95%, they reduce a lot in subsequent rounds. Very quickly the per-game odds start approaching 50%. So when you multiply those odds together, even a 25% chance is really huge.
I think the "big upgrade" exception is fair enough. But recruiting a OAD over a senior when the senior is actually quite good and a freshman can be expected to make freshman mistakes and be less of a team player - that would bother me.
That wasn't the case with Knox, but that's only because Theo had proven his versatility.
You could say we recruited Cam over Brandon or Kenny. And you could say we recruited Jalek over Seventh. But I wouldn't go that far because all those guys still have several years to play and none of them has really earned their spots so convincingly that I think they should consider the starting position to be theirs.
But let me flip that back on you. Suppose we recruited Duval over Berry - where Duval is expected to be a OAD who would start at point ahead of Berry - and it's Berry's final season and he just decided to forego the draft. Would that bother you? It would me.
As some point, yes I do value loyalty over an incremental improvement in the team.
Well gaucho, not sure what that was all about other than it doesn't require kenpom's statistical wanking to affirm that quantitatively one can't expect even a good team to make the FF, i.e., it's a crapshoot in a 68 team field (which also BTW makes John Wooden's silly comments that it was harder for UCLA in his day even more absurd).
However, I also stand by my second point that qualitatively given who we have coming back that no Carolina fan should be surprised if these guys bow up and make another FF run either.
First, I do not believe any Freshman PG would oust Berry from his spot as a Sr. Berry is a NPOY Candidate level player with 3 years running Roy's teams.
Second, one "knock" on Roy is that he is too loyal to upperclassmen. I don't believe that either, but it is the "prevailing wisdom" of the masses. I happen to believe Roy balances loyalty vs new talent in a near perfect fashion. Everyone has their chances to earn PT, and everyone playing well enough sees game time.
As Gunslinger said in an earlier post, contrast that with Kay's 6-7 favorites approach and the difference is crystal clear.
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I just think it's fair to expect we won't make the final 4, because it's pretty unlikely. Never count a Roy team out, but the odds are long to get there.
Ok, again right to my point: Don't be surprised if they don't but don't be surprised if they do.
Ultimately what everyone deserves is honesty. If Roy told Berry he would be the starting PG to get him to come back, and then pulled a fast one and picked up Duval to play the point, then yeah that would be terrible. But if he said (pre-draft deadline) he thought the team would be better served with Berry playing off the ball (where I think he would be terrific) and that they were going after Duval to play the point, then no I wouldn't have a problem with Roy doing that.
This is all complicated by the fact that Berry is so good it really isn't plausible we'd have 2-3 guards better than him. But let's say we got Duval and he was awesome beyond all expectations, and we also have Malik Monk and Lebron Jr. to play the 2 and 3. And Roy was upfront about the fact we were recruiting these guys when advising Berry about the draft decision. In that scenario then no, I wouldn't have a problem with Berry coming off the bench.
Or.... let's say Berry regressed his senior year. He becomes the Chuck Knoblauch of shooting, and can't hit a thing anymore. Should we keep starting him over Jalek? I'd say no.
And that's the ultimate point. Berry deserves to start because he's the best point guard for our team. We should be fair and honest to him, and a slightly better freshman probably wouldn't be worth it because of the loss in leadership, chemistry, etc. But if there was a (admittedly difficult to conceive) scenario where you ultimately think you can bring someone else in that substantially improves the team and you've been honest and fair to all of your existing players, I don't have a problem with it. No one is guaranteed a starting spot.
The thought of someone preferring to go to Seton Hall over UNC...
Just doing the hometown school a favor, that's all. He did the same for Rutgers in his top 10.
There's your point. And I think the better example would be Butter and Drew (since on no planet is Duval better than Berry, even age for age, level for level). Roy gave Drew every chance to do what he needed to do to keep his job but he either couldn't or wouldn't and was well on his way to leading us back to the NIT.
Personally I was loudly clamoring on here for Butter to start from day-1, even though it was unrealistic given the delicate situation Roy was juggling. Still, as he typically does, Roy eventually realized he needed to make the move and did. Butter was simply a better PG and moreover, a better fit for our system.
Indeed.
As optimistic as I am, I'd be very surprised if we did.
Here's to a big ol surprise come March then...
The thought of someone preferring to go to Seton Hall over UNC...
Well, perhaps if we had actually offered...
Francis is one of the top 10 in that class IMO. He hasas some JB in him.
Bulldog mentality.
Yep, I will be disappointed too. And I guess this really gets to the roots of many arguments; we're mostly just arguing because we have different concepts of a word in our head: in this case the word is "expect".
For me "expectations" are what I think will occur the majority of the time. So for example, I expect us to be in the tournament next year. I expect us to be in the top 5-6 of the ACC. Those are both statements I would say definitely have a >50% chance of happening.
One could also think of it in terms of the most likely amongst all the outcomes. As in, maybe there's a 30% chance of ending our season in the Final Four, 20% chance in the Elite 8, 20% chance in the sweet 16, 20% chance in the first weekend, and 10% chance of not making the tournament. In this case the most likely of any individual ending is in the Final Four. Of course the majority of the time (70%) this hypothetical team doesn't make it there, so under my first definition we'd say we expect this team not to make the Final Four!
You could also frame it as the definition to meet success. Given the same example team odds, one might say that if the team lives up to its potential it should be in the Final Four. And that's probably fair too.
So anyway, I think we're mostly discussing semantics. I'll be disappointed if we don't make the Final Four, because I think we have a shot at it, but I think the odds are relatively long we actually get there.
I don't think we're a final four team next season and it's fine if we're not. Do you know how hard it is to make 3 straight? Has anyone done it in the past like 30 years?
I think those that say we "should" get to a FF next season are underestimating how valuable Kennedy, Hicks, Justin, and Tony were to this team.
I think those that say we "should" get to a FF next season are underestimating how valuable Kennedy, Hicks, Justin, and Tony were to this team.
Exactly! It's not like there are a bunch of teams that are odds on favorites to make the FF.
C'mon... I don't believe I've seen anyone saying we "should". There's just no compelling reason (other than the odds in any given season) that we shouldn't... especially given what else is out there.
The simple point I and others are trying to make is that merely writing this season off is just silly. As long as we have #2 running the show and a healthy #1 wreaking havoc we have a damned good fighting chance, plus there are some other guys whose turn it is to step up (which is the beauty of not having to rely on friggin' freshmen).
Hell, with Tony we would've been a legit top-5 team and FF "favorite" (whatever that means).
Without him? OK, top-10 and not a "favorite".
Still way better than most.
None of us know what will happen of course, and the Dance is a crapshoot, but this I CAN tell you --- when this team sets their "goals" for the coming season they won't be anything short of a return to the FF... and they have every reason to do so.
As for me as a fan? I'm in. Why not?...
- Heels make the '18 FF = "Wow! RW is really good at what he does"
- Heels make it past the first week of tournament = "Yeah, that's still pretty good"
- Heels bow out in second round = "meh, we still have last year to remember"
- Heels bow out in first round = "OK, that was a dook moment"
- Heels play in NIT = "mild disappointment, but there still is a banner hanging which wasn't there 12 months ago!"
Joel Berry and 4 cheerleaders ain't going 8-20
Agree 100% on that front.... and Theo is no cheerleader, IMO the second most important name on next season's roster.Joel Berry and 4 cheerleaders ain't going 8-20
C'mon Gary. I don't see anybody "writing the season off". I see people cautioning others to temper their expectations a bit due to the big turnover in personnel. There's a big difference.
It's been 16 years since the Spartans made 3 consecutive final fours and its only been done 9 times. So it's obviously not very easy to do. And it should be just as obvious that every UNC fan would love to see us do it.
Can we make the FF again next season? Yes, anything is possible. Will we? Not likely, IMO. I'm really looking forward to the season and watching the progress of our team, but I always try to keep my expectations realistic.
It's been 16 years since the Spartans made 3 consecutive final fours and its only been done 9 times. So it's obviously not very easy to do. And it should be just as obvious that every UNC fan would love to see us do it.
Can we make the FF again next season? Yes, anything is possible. Will we? Not likely, IMO. I'm really looking forward to the season and watching the progress of our team, but I always try to keep my expectations realistic.
How will we replace Meeks/Hicks/Tony? Well maybe the same way we replaced Marcus & Brice? Thing is most years we lose great players and other players step up and fills that void. WE are always top 3 in the ACC, we are always a hard out in the NCAAT.
No, I do not think this will be one of our better teams but who knows right now? We just can't know who and to what extent others will step up but we should expect that at least 1 guy will step up, maybe more, happens every year unless the injury bugs kills us.
No, I do not think this will be one of our better teams but who knows right now? We just can't know who and to what extent others will step up but we should expect that at least 1 guy will step up, maybe more, happens every year unless the injury bugs kills us.
make that meeks/hicks/tony/and jackson. HUGE losses -- lost scoring, lost rebounding, lost defense, lost leadership... i don't underestimate the challenge ahead for our team. one thing won't change though: a schedule packed with tough opponents who will circle their game vs. unc and hit us with all they've got.
Seriously, not having Theo relegated to "cheerleader" for half the season will be key. A full season of the Swiss Army Knife will be vital, and that goes for KW as well. I already have an evil grin at the perimeter defensive havoc those two and JB will throw at people.
Speaking of which, a lot of fans don't realize how an experienced bunch like that can step up to another level of sophistication in changing on the fly, e.g., trapping off keys, switch adjustments, etc.
This could be RW's deepest and most guard/wing lead team in Chapel Hill.
We also have the best guards/wings in the country IMO.
Personally I expect another deep run.
We also have the best guards/wings in the country IMO.
Personally I expect another deep run.
I WILL NOT temper my expectations! I am a Carolina fan and I expect to be at least top 2-3 in the ACC; I expect to be a high (1-4) seed in the Tourney; I expect to be a contender for a Natty; and I expect to enjoy the ride and to love my Family as people! I will be mildly disappointed if we do not get to at least the regional finals and then on to the FF! I expect to beat Moo, puke, and Kentuck and I expect to see us go farther in the Tourney than all of them!
It's Good to be the King! (again)
It's Good to be the King! (again)
...with 2 grinning emojis. Sounds like a fan having some faith as well as some fun. Nothing wrong with that. And BTW there was nothing "yikes" about his assessment of our perimeter players.
This could be RW's deepest and most guard/wing lead team in Chapel Hill.
We also have the best guards/wings in the country IMO.
Personally I expect another deep run.
Deepest team? How do you figure ?
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