OOTB Carolina Basketball Discussion Thread

[JuleZ '02 HEEL]

So is 7th gonna be any good next year, or nah?

Yep. He has the tools, he's just never gotten comfortable. He has a chance now to make it his team, and I'm going to choose to believe he will make the most of it, unless and until he shows otherwise.

How many times have we seen a guy who was so-so become really good once he became the first option at his position?

 

[gunslingerdick]

Yes we're losing a great leader and a very versatile player. But, neither of them were great players. I admit that my optimism is based off the belief that Roy's hand will be forced, and he'll have to start impact freshmen from the get-go. Now, he could put his foot down and start 7th at PG and BRob at wing, but for the sake of my sanity I'm going to assume we have White and Little starting. I think right there we're net even in terms of production with what we lost in Joel and Theo (yes, the leadership aspect will be lost, but hopefully Kenny and Luke can make strides there in the offseason). After that, everyone else will be a year older and more mature. I'm expecting Kenny and Luke to take steps forward, hopefully one of 7th/BRob/Platek makes a jump this offseason, or that Leaky comes in ready to go, that makes them actually warrant competing for starter's minutes. And our biggest weakness, bigs, will all be a year more seasoned. I'm expecting Manley to make a big jump in the offseason, and maybe resemble something close to Tony Bradley (in terms of ability to control the college game, not NBA potential - don't take this as a Luke=Bird comparison).

Plus, as you alluded to, I think this team was somewhat content coming off the championship. Next year I think they'll have a little bit of that hunger/fire back.

Good discussion. If I may:

Yes we're losing a great leader and a very versatile player. But, neither of them were great players.

I completely disagree. Neither of them are big time NBA prospects but as far as dominant college players go, those two were as good as it gets. Solid (and at times spectacular) production, exceptional leadership, real program guys. I love Kenny and Luke but I don't see either of those guys having the leadership capabilities of the outgoing duo.

I admit that my optimism is based off the belief that Roy's hand will be forced, and he'll have to start impact freshmen from the get-go. Now, he could put his foot down and start 7th at PG and BRob at wing, but for the sake of my sanity I'm going to assume we have White and Little starting.

When are people gonna learn?

C'mon now, you know Roy. If Seventh is on the roster to start next season, that means Roy has told him he gets first crack as the PG starter. And frankly, I agree with that decision based on the current make up of next year's roster. I don't want to thwart Coby's development because he's trying to run our system. He has AA ability at the 2 guard spot. But I fear he won't ever realize it if Roy forces him into playing the 1. I do think Little might start but that's only if Roy doesn't feel good about starting Brooks or Manley and still wants to plays small ball. If Brooks or Manley is ready, the starters for our first game will be:

Seventh
Kenny
Cam
Luke
Brooks/Manley

but for the sake of my sanity I'm going to assume we have White and Little starting. I think right there we're net even in terms of production with what we lost in Joel and Theo (yes, the leadership aspect will be lost, but hopefully Kenny and Luke can make strides there in the offseason).

What?!! No. You think Little and Coby can give us 27 ppg, 10 rpg, 8 apg on 43% shooting next year? Hell to the no. Two stud freshman at OAD schools would have a hard time putting up that stat line let alone in Chapel Hill. I get that you're also factoring in the development of the bigs along with another year of Luke and kenny improving. But that's still a tall order. Frankly, I don't see Luke improving at all - at least his production. In fact, I see him taking a step back next year. He won't have Joel and Theo to set him up as well but I also think he's peaked. The second half of the season showed that the book was out on Luke. Teams started playing him differently and he struggled. And really, outside of the FT line, where could Luke really improve? It's not logical to think he'll improve his percentage from deep. He was amazing there for the bulk of the year. He hits the boards hard but he's limited. But teams are going to force Luke to drive the ball or to work with his back to the basket and in both cases, he's far less productive than when facing the basket. Kenny is a special defender, a good but not great shooter and a guy that's limited creating. I don't see a huge uptick from him either. He could become a little more consistent shooting the ball but other than that, I don't know where he drastically improves. And I already mentioned - to your last point - I just don't see Luke or Kenny as Joel or Theo level leaders. That's no knock on them. It's more a compliment to two guys that proved to be special leaders.

... hopefully one of 7th/BRob/Platek makes a jump this offseason, or that Leaky comes in ready to go, that makes them actually warrant competing for starter's minutes. And our biggest weakness, bigs, will all be a year more seasoned. I'm expecting Manley to make a big jump in the offseason, and maybe resemble something close to Tony Bradley (in terms of ability to control the college game, not NBA potential - don't take this as a Luke=Bird comparison).

I don't know what to expect from BRob and Andrew. I really have no clue. Are they guys that could improve remarkably and be integral parts of the rotation next year or are they guys that in normal years wouldn't get much PT for our program? I could see them both going in either direction. But yes, big strides are going to be needed for Sterling and Garrison. I think they both will be significantly better next year. But neither guy has the full toolbox. Brooks is limited offensively and Manley is limited defensively. Neither will be a plus in the lacking area by next year. I just don't see that.

Plus, as you alluded to, I think this team was somewhat content coming off the championship. Next year I think they'll have a little bit of that hunger/fire back.

That's true. And I think Nas has some of that nastiness/feistiness that will drive the team's hunger. But I think our next real shot at a FF is 2021 and that's only if we can get Nas and Coby to stick it out. If not, the turnover is too great to overcome when we aren't landing top 10 guys regularly and Roy isn't proficient in managing the OAD talent and trying to build one year winners.

 

[tarheel0910]

Good discussion. If I may:



I completely disagree. Neither of them are big time NBA prospects but as far as dominant college players go, those two were as good as it gets. Solid (and at times spectacular) production, exceptional leadership, real program guys. I love Kenny and Luke but I don't see either of those guys having the leadership capabilities of the outgoing duo.



When are people gonna learn?

C'mon now, you know Roy. If Seventh is on the roster to start next season, that means Roy has told him he gets first crack as the PG starter. And frankly, I agree with that decision based on the current make up of next year's roster. I don't want to thwart Coby's development because he's trying to run our system. He has AA ability at the 2 guard spot. But I fear he won't ever realize it if Roy forces him into playing the 1. I do think Little might start but that's only if Roy doesn't feel good about starting Brooks or Manley and still wants to plays small ball. If Brooks or Manley is ready, the starters for our first game will be:

Seventh
Kenny
Cam
Luke
Brooks/Manley



What?!! No. You think Little and Coby can give us 27 ppg, 10 rpg, 8 apg on 43% shooting next year? Hell to the no. Two stud freshman at OAD schools would have a hard time putting up that stat line let alone in Chapel Hill. I get that you're also factoring in the development of the bigs along with another year of Luke and kenny improving. But that's still a tall order. Frankly, I don't see Luke improving at all - at least his production. In fact, I see him taking a step back next year. He won't have Joel and Theo to set him up as well but I also think he's peaked. The second half of the season showed that the book was out on Luke. Teams started playing him differently and he struggled. And really, outside of the FT line, where could Luke really improve? It's not logical to think he'll improve his percentage from deep. He was amazing there for the bulk of the year. He hits the boards hard but he's limited. But teams are going to force Luke to drive the ball or to work with his back to the basket and in both cases, he's far less productive than when facing the basket. Kenny is a special defender, a good but not great shooter and a guy that's limited creating. I don't see a huge uptick from him either. He could become a little more consistent shooting the ball but other than that, I don't know where he drastically improves. And I already mentioned - to your last point - I just don't see Luke or Kenny as Joel or Theo level leaders. That's no knock on them. It's more a compliment to two guys that proved to be special leaders.



I don't know what to expect from BRob and Andrew. I really have no clue. Are they guys that could improve remarkably and be integral parts of the rotation next year or are they guys that in normal years wouldn't get much PT for our program? I could see them both going in either direction. But yes, big strides are going to be needed for Sterling and Garrison. I think they both will be significantly better next year. But neither guy has the full toolbox. Brooks is limited offensively and Manley is limited defensively. Neither will be a plus in the lacking area by next year. I just don't see that.



That's true. And I think Nas has some of that nastiness/feistiness that will drive the team's hunger. But I think our next real shot at a FF is 2021 and that's only if we can get Nas and Coby to stick it out. If not, the turnover is too great to overcome when we aren't landing top 10 guys regularly and Roy isn't proficient in managing the OAD talent and trying to build one year winners.

Nas isn't going to be here for three years. We'll be lucky to get two years. To be completely honest, I want him to leave after one year because I'm worried about him or his family breaking rules. We might get three from Coby.

 

[gunslingerdick]

Nas isn't going to be here for three years. We'll be lucky to get two years. To be completely honest, I want him to leave after one year because I'm worried about him or his family breaking rules. We might get three from Coby.

I agree with that, even the part of him having some residual Zona filth stuck on him. But I’m just saying, next year we’re not FF capable. And then the year after, we have to replace two more senior leaders. I think Coby and Leaky’s junior year is the next real chance at of course that depends on the recruiting up until that point.

 

[dadika13]

So is 7th gonna be any good next year, or nah?

 

[strummingram]

Seventh is a liability. He's almost painful to watch.

 

[uncboy10]

This "traditional PG" bullshit is stupid. I don't care if you're 9 feet tall, if you can handle the PG duties, then why would we complain about getting more size on the court?

If people don't think Black is a good enough ball handler or passer, then that's one thing, but saying he can't play PG because he's too tall is just silly.

 

[nctransplant]

This "traditional PG" bullshit is stupid. I don't care if you're 9 feet tall, if you can handle the PG duties, then why would we complain about getting more size on the court?

If people don't think Black is a good enough ball handler or passer, then that's one thing, but saying he can't play PG because he's too tall is just silly.

Magic Johnson anyone? Not saying Magic's ability but his height.

 

[TarHeelMark]

Seventh is a liability. He's almost painful to watch.

Yeah, his bad outweighs the good by a ton right now. He has been limited by injuries, and playing behind Joel was never going to get him many minutes. My hope - *HOPE* - is that he was pressing too hard during his limited court time, and if he's the starter next year he'll settle down and play more under control.

 

[tarheel0910]

This "traditional PG" bullshit is stupid. I don't care if you're 9 feet tall, if you can handle the PG duties, then why would we complain about getting more size on the court?

If people don't think Black is a good enough ball handler or passer, then that's one thing, but saying he can't play PG because he's too tall is just silly.

I haven't said anything about his height being the reason.

 

[uncboy10]

Magic Johnson anyone? Not saying Magic's ability but his height.

Exactly. Look at what Lebron does at the 1 when he takes over the offense. Obviously Leaky isn't Magic or Lebron but having a physically dominant PG creates serious matchup problems at any level of the game.

I haven't said anything about his height being the reason.

Not calling out anyone in particular. I've just seen that sentiment getting passed around online

 

[gunslingerdick]

This "traditional PG" bullshit is stupid. I don't care if you're 9 feet tall, if you can handle the PG duties, then why would we complain about getting more size on the court?

If people don't think Black is a good enough ball handler or passer, then that's one thing, but saying he can't play PG because he's too tall is just silly.

From what I've seen, Black is not a good enough ball handler or passer at this time to be given the keys to our offense. Plus, he would really struggle to guard an ACC level PG and he's only a an average athlete. I cannot see him taking over the PG position as freshman whether he's a midget or 10 feet tall. I think Leaky is a promising point forward in the Theo Pinson mold eventually - but probably not until his junior year.

 

[dadika13]

From what I've seen, Black is not a good enough ball handler or passer at this time to be given the keys to our offense. Plus, he would really struggle to guard an ACC level PG and he's only a an average athlete. I cannot see him taking over the PG position as freshman whether he's a midget or 10 feet tall. I think Leaky is a promising point forward in the Theo Pinson mold eventually - but probably not until his junior year.

Agree with all of this except his passing. He passes at an ACC level right now.

 

[gunslingerdick]

Agree with all of this except his passing. He passes at an ACC level right now.

You know anything about Brandon Williams? Didn't he de-commit from Zona? Is there any hope there?

 

[coryfly]

My hope for Black is to eventually be a Theo type guy for UNC.

 

[uncboy10]

From what I've seen, Black is not a good enough ball handler or passer at this time to be given the keys to our offense. Plus, he would really struggle to guard an ACC level PG and he's only a an average athlete. I cannot see him taking over the PG position as freshman whether he's a midget or 10 feet tall. I think Leaky is a promising point forward in the Theo Pinson mold eventually - but probably not until his junior year.

Those would be legitimate concerns. I don't know that much about his ball handling or athleticism because I've only seen a few youtube videos, but optimistically those could both improve in reasonably short order. Didn't he hit a late growth spurt? Part of the athleticism and guarding issues could be because he just hasn't grown into that new length yet. It sounds like he needs to be in the gym doing lateral movement and speed drills like crazy though.

IMO ball handling is one of the skills in basketball with the most room for improvement. There are tons of great drills for ball handling, we just have to hope that Leaky, and the rest of the freshman work their asses off between now and next season. A lot of progress can be made before Roy even gets his hands on them if they have the right coaching and drive.

Worst case scenario, we can use Seventh to get the ball down the court. I think he's a good enough ball handler that he isn't going to have issues with getting ripped for easy lay-ups, and once its across half-court he can hand it off to any any one of the killers we hopefully will have on offense.

 

[tarheel0910]

We are going to have to depend on Woods no matter what. Even if he doesn't start, he will be getting big minutes as the backup. The depth at PG is a problem too.

 

[strummingram]

Those would be legitimate concerns. I don't know that much about his ball handling or athleticism because I've only seen a few youtube videos, but optimistically those could both improve in reasonably short order. Didn't he hit a late growth spurt? Part of the athleticism and guarding issues could be because he just hasn't grown into that new length yet. It sounds like he needs to be in the gym doing lateral movement and speed drills like crazy though.

IMO ball handling is one of the skills in basketball with the most room for improvement. There are tons of great drills for ball handling, we just have to hope that Leaky, and the rest of the freshman work their asses off between now and next season. A lot of progress can be made before Roy even gets his hands on them if they have the right coaching and drive.

Worst case scenario, we can use Seventh to get the ball down the court. I think he's a good enough ball handler that he isn't going to have issues with getting ripped for easy lay-ups, and once its across half-court he can hand it off to any any one of the killers we hopefully will have on offense.

Seventh doesn't score either.

I just see nothing to invest any kind of optimism or even hope with Woods. He'll be a junior and I have not seen him excel in any facet of the game at all. There's nothing he does that stands-out, and, in my opinion he's barely reliable as a relief player to let the starter rest.

 

[Hark_The_Sound_2010]

Seventh
Kenny
Cam
Luke
Brooks/Manley

If that's the starting 5, I withdraw my optimism.

But I think our next real shot at a FF is 2021 and that's only if we can get Nas and Coby to stick it out.

Well that's depressing. Considering there's no way Nas will be here then, and if Coby is here that means that 2019 and 2020 were brutal.

 

[dadika13]

You know anything about Brandon Williams? Didn't he de-commit from Zona? Is there any hope there?

Don't think we're even involved. Oregon has been all over him since the decommit. Looks like he's staying out west.

 

[uncboy10]

I like the idea of

Coby / Leaky - whoever the better ball handler is
Kenny / Little
Cam / Little
Luke
Brooks/Manley

 

[dadika13]

I like the idea of

Coby / Leaky - whoever the better ball handler is
Kenny / Little
Cam / Little
Luke
Brooks/Manley

Little can't play the 2. Even in a backup capacity.

He'd play the 4 before the 2.

And you're on drugs if you think he's not starting next year.

 

[gunslingerdick]

And you're on drugs if you think he's not starting next year.

Well, I said it too. And I believe it. If Manley or Brooks improves greatly over the summer, Roy will go back to two bigs. And Cam as a senior transfer will not come off the bench. Neither will senior Kenny or senior Luke. So unless Nas has been working on his ball handling and passing so he can take over the 1 spot, I don't see him starting. At least not at the beginning of the year. But like I said, it will all be dependent on Brooks and Manley's development.

 

[TarHeelMark]

I'd like to be on some drugs right now....

 

[coolwaterunc]

Seventh Woods is the guy next year. It will be up to the freshmen (and Roy) whether or not they want to take it from him. Hopefully Seventh makes it difficult for them, but honestly, I can't get my hopes up. I hope he proves me wrong and comes in a completely different player.

 

[dadika13]

Well, I said it too. And I believe it. If Manley or Brooks improves greatly over the summer, Roy will go back to two bigs. And Cam as a senior transfer will not come off the bench. Neither will senior Kenny or senior Luke. So unless Nas has been working on his ball handling and passing so he can take over the 1 spot, I don't see him starting. At least not at the beginning of the year. But like I said, it will all be dependent on Brooks and Manley's development.

All that may be true...but so is this...if the #5 player doesn't come in and start then coaches will hammer us for it to kids in 2019. You may not care, but top talent does.

 

[gunslingerdick]

All that may be true...but so is this...if the #5 player doesn't come in and start then coaches will hammer us for it to kids in 2019. You may not care, but top talent does.

And that too may be true. Roy’s defense is that he’s had 3 OAD players and all three were drafted in the first round and only one of the three was a starter. Two of them won titles. Will that outweigh their desire to start? I don’t know. But as you alluded, I like the way Roy does it.

 

[uncboy10]

And you're on drugs.

You say that like its a bad thing

 

[carolinablue34]

Well yesterday plain sucked. No argument there.

As for our prospects next year, I think putting a respectable team that can go to the NCAA tourney should be the goal. We’ve had a really solid run the past three years, but my feeling is now we are back to the drawing board.

There are a lot of question marks that have already been highlighted. Chief among them the PG spot. Seventh will start out at that spot, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him supplanted if he doesn’t improve enormously.

Guys, this is what happens when you can’t recruit top 20 talent year after year. And Roy needs to work his butt off to get top guys for 2019 and 2020 or else it’s going to be awhile before the next natty run.

 

[carolinablue34]

Nas needs to start or at least get significant minutes. He’s too talented not to and it’s good for our brand.

 

[strummingram]

There is also the whole FBI factor. That could prove to turn the entire sport around and fall in our favor. Who knows what that is going to impact.

 

[tarheel0910]

All that may be true...but so is this...if the #5 player doesn't come in and start then coaches will hammer us for it to kids in 2019. You may not care, but top talent does.

So who does Roy move to the bench or do you think he plays small again?

 

[coryfly]

I think Little will start.

I think it will be...

Seventh
Kenny
Little
Maye
Manley

If Manley and Brooks neither one improve, which seems unlikely, then we could potentially have Maye at C again but I doubt it. I don't think Roy would do that for a number of reasons.

 

[tarheel0910]

I think Little will start.

I think it will be...

Seventh
Kenny
Little
Maye
Manley

If Manley and Brooks neither one improve, which seems unlikely, then we could potentially have Maye at C again but I doubt it. I don't think Roy would do that for a number of reasons.

So does Cam come off the bench? I'm thinking Woods, KW, Cam, Luke and Manley/Brooks.

ETA: Little will get 20 minutes at the 3/4.

 

[strummingram]

So does Cam come off the bench? I'm thinking Woods, KW, Cam, Luke and Manley/Brooks.

ETA: Little will get 20 minutes at the 3/4.

Is Johnson even returning?

 

[carolinablue34]

Can we also not pretend that Carolina will continue to be a top team if Roy doesn’t recruit more consistently? Getting this class was huge, but we need more like it to stay on top.

 

[tarheel0910]

Is Johnson even returning?

The only people who seem to think he isn't are posters on radar. Until he says he's leaving I have no reason to think he is. He is a late second round pick at best right now.

 

[tarheel0910]

Can we also not pretend that Carolina will continue to be a top team if Roy doesn’t recruit more consistently? Getting this class was huge, but we need more like it to stay on top.

Nah, we'll be ok as long as we keep getting underrated recruits like baby jet and Miller.

 

[grillheel]

Little has to start, IMO. It’s hard to say what the lineup will be because Cam’s plans are not known. Right now my guess would be:

White
Williams
Johnson
Little
Maye

I think White is too good not to start even if he’s not a true PG.

 

[coryfly]

So does Cam come off the bench? I'm thinking Woods, KW, Cam, Luke and Manley/Brooks.

ETA: Little will get 20 minutes at the 3/4.

I am counting on Johnson not being here. If things have changed then I'll more than welcome it.

Can we also not pretend that Carolina will continue to be a top team if Roy doesn’t recruit more consistently? Getting this class was huge, but we need more like it to stay on top.

I think we assume Roy will have good classes.