The ACC This Season

[What Would Jesus Do?]

I hope this link is OK to post. The article has the most complete info I've seen about the lineups of other ACC teams, including who left, who transferred in, and so on.

Plus, of course, a preseason ranking that we can quibble about. We're #3 after Duke and Miami. Which I suppose makes sense until we prove that last year was a fluke.

Here's what it says about us. While the article isn't dated, it's new enough to include Okonkwo.

3. North Carolina
Projected Starting 5:
G R.J. Davis
G Elliot Cadeau
G Cormac Ryan
F Harrison Ingram
C Armando Bacot
Projected Bench: Seth Trimble, Jalen Washington, Zayden High, Paxson Wojcik, Jae’Lyn Withers, James Okonkwo
Key Newcomers: Zayden High, Paxson Wojcik (Brown), Jae’Lyn Withers (Louisville), Cormac Ryan (Notre Dame), Harrison Ingram (Stanford), Elliot Cadeau, James Okonkwo (West Virginia)
Key Losses: Pete Nance, Leaky Black, Dontrez Styles, Puff Johnson, Tyler Nickel, Justin McCoy, Caleb Love, D’Marco Dunn

ACC Offseason Breakdown

Summer time means a look ahead to next season! Each week moving forward, we will preview one conference in college basketball from soup to nuts. Check below for this week’s breakdown on the ACC. ACC Offseason Power Rankings1. DukeProjected Starting 5:G Tyrese ProctorG Jeremy RoachF Mark...

collegehoops.today

 

[39 Feet Above Sea Level]

Thanks for the link, WWJD. I like our chances to have a successful season. I will not open my big, fat yap
and make any predictions about Carolina like l did last season. That’s my pledge to myself. 😉

 

[DSouthr]

Well, right off the top I disagree with his starting rotation by not starting Ingram at the 3 and Withers at the 4 (and yes I fully realize many fans here prefer Ingram to start at the 4). From there projecting us to finish behind both duke and Miami, nope, I think we are neck & neck with duke but I think we are by far deeper with our bench. I don't care what Miami did last season, it means as little as what we did season before last as it applies to this coming season.

 

[dtodd4475]

The conference does not look overly strong in my opinion. Dook does seem like the clear favorite on paper to me, but not a "it will be shocking if they don't roll" type team.

With so many new faces with the portal and freshmen everywhere, it's more of a crap shoot to see how all the fits take. I like our chances for the best fits to develop into a very strong squad. Capable of big things.

I do hope as a conference we perform better in the non conference matchups this year. Getting smacked around the past two years as a conference makes for a tough road to hoe getting quality wins the rest of the way.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Well, right off the top I disagree with his starting rotation by not starting Ingram at the 3 and Withers at the 4 (and yes I fully realize many fans here prefer Ingram to start at the 4). From there projecting us to finish behind both duke and Miami, nope, I think we are neck & neck with duke but I think we are by far deeper with our bench. I don't care what Miami did last season, it means as little as what we did season before last as it applies to this coming season.

I think you and I are the only ones wanting Withers to start, although AJ agreed with us a month or so ago. And even in his latest Drop he was talking up Withers.

Most people seem to think if Withers starts at PF, with Ingram at SF, that somehow means Cormac Ryan doesn't get starter minutes. OF COURSE he gets starter minutes. You don't have to start for that to happen. By not starting at the 3 - where he's a bit undersized - he gets more of his minutes at SG, where he's an even better fit.

All that said, you and I are soundly out-voted. So I don't expect to see Withers start. At least no time soon. Might earn it later. But that can be said of several guys.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

Excuse me, but I have said since he joined us that Withers should start at 4! I gave my preferred lineup months ago and Ryan was not in it. (Even though peeps insisted Ryan should start at 3 with Ingram at 4) I don't like this because it makes us give up size at 4 when we don't have to. Ingram should play 4 during a small ball stint to either matchup or give a new look.
Cadeau, RJ, Ingram, Withers, Bacot! (I think Ryan and Ingram will rotate frequently at 3 and Ryan will get some time at 2) RJ-Ryan will be an effective tandem on the perimeter.

 

[DSouthr]

I think you and I are the only ones wanting Withers to start, although AJ agreed with us a month or so ago. And even in his latest Drop he was talking up Withers.

Most people seem to think if Withers starts at PF, with Ingram at SF, that somehow means Cormac Ryan doesn't get starter minutes. OF COURSE he gets starter minutes. You don't have to start for that to happen. By not starting at the 3 - where he's a bit undersized - he gets more of his minutes at SG, where he's an even better fit.

All that said, you and I are soundly out-voted. So I don't expect to see Withers start. At least no time soon. Might earn it later. But that can be said of several guys.

First, I want to clearly say, I am not predicting Ingram starts at the 3 and Withers at the 4, I am saying that in my opinion that is where they should play and both should start. Don't read me saying that is what Hubert is going to do, it is what I think he should do. IN addition, I have never said that Ryan should not get starter minutes, I am saying with this line up I prefer Ryan not start at the 3. I have Ryan as the primary back up at BOTH the 2 and 3 and I see no reason for either RJ or Ingram to being playing nearly 40mins, I want those 2 fellas around 25mins and that leaves Ryan with the same minutes as either RJ or Ingram (note, it as well leaves a few minutes for Paxon). FYI, I as well want Jalen to be the primary back up for Withers at the 4, NOT Ingram. I want to be clear that I don't have a crystal ball that is tuned to Hubert. I realize that I should not need to say that is my opinion and not a prediction but you know how things get spun around here.

I think folks fixate to much on who starts when the real thing to look hard at is minutes and I think way under valued is match ups to opponents. Consider, say we are playing a team like Miami was last season, 3 guard line up all game and a more wing like 4. IN that type game I have no problem starting Ryan at the 3 because his quickness may help. But don't under estimate the value of Ingram being able to over power a smaller guard like defender and the rebounding pay off that should include. But when we play a team like duke I want Ingram in there to do battle with Mark Mitchel. Point being, I see real value when your bench is strong enough to rotate your starters from game to game depending on individual player match ups.

I see real quality players 10 deep on this team, I saw a great deal more depth on the team the last 2 seasons than was used, most especially last season. This being married to our starters is in my opinion in dire need of divorce. It is to me a kind of cast system that fans really push, starters vs bench players, I don't think it should be that way IF, say it again IF you have the bench that can get the job done, not many teams are able to assemble such teams, I do think we have one of those rather rare teams that is able to play the way I really think we should evolve to. Last season we very much had a cast system, it was 4 of the starters and then everyone else, even Nance as the 5th starter was very limited in his role.

I think players have to play in real games that matter to develop. If you are so down on your bench being able to help your team win then I have one burning question, why did you give them a scholly in the first place? I am not talking spot minutes that barely show up in the box score, I am talking real minutes in roles that allow them to play to their strengths and not their weak areas. IN other words DON"T try to make guys like Leaky and Nance in to clones of deadly outside shooters when their game strengths were elsewhere. Now if a kid is going in or starts and is playing some what lazy, as we have seen far to much of from Roy's last season thru this past season, bring the hook quick no matter who that player is, invite them to go spend time helping a sick relative across the country...LOL

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Excuse me, but I have said since he joined us that Withers should start at 4!

Apologies. I should have remembered.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

I have Ryan as the primary back up at BOTH the 2 and 3.... I see no reason for either RJ or Ingram to being playing nearly 40mins, I want those 2 fellas around 25mins and that leaves Ryan with the same minutes as either RJ or Ingram (note, it as well leaves a few minutes for Paxon). FYI, I as well want Jalen to be the primary back up for Withers at the 4, NOT Ingram.

I agree, except maybe on who backs up at PF. Seems like we have several possibilities there.

One big question this year is how far Hubert moves away from the IRON MAN approach. Did he go that route the last 2 seasons because he felt he had to, or because that's his preference? We should find out this season.

Some thought he went Iron Man in 2022 for 2 main reasons. First, as a new coach without prior head coaching experience, he felt the pressure to win. Second because with the loss of Dawson Garcia and Anthony Harris, not to mention recurring injuries to Puff, the bench was pretty weak.

Oddly enough, with a great finish in 2022 under his belt, and no meaningful mid-season departures, Hubert stuck with the Iron Man approach in 2023. Sure, Pete Nance wasn't the next Brady Manuk, but you might think that would result in more bench play. It didn't.

Now you can argue that the 2023 team - especially the bench - just wasn't very good. The house cleaning at the end of the season certainly suggests that Hubert felt that way. So, although a couple of guys got some decent use off the bench, you could argue that Hubert felt he had no choice but to go Iron Man again.

I'm hoping Hubert makes liberal use of his bespoke lineup this season. He picked every one of these guys - whether by encouraging them to return or by adding them new to the roster. So there's no excuse for Iron Man. Unless maybe that's just how Hubert prefers to roll.

We'll see.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

To clarify, I wouldn't be surprised if Hubs starts Ryan and Ingram, but I would be shocked if Withers isn't a starter by ACC time! I think Ingram/Ryan will be 1A & 1B as our 3 and might be situational starters. IN any case, I expect around 7 peeps to get near starter minutes and our Iron 2 to be reduced to 25-30 minutes per!

 

[dtodd4475]

I think RJ, Mando, and Cadeau will all end up going 30 - 32 type if they stay healthy/non foul trouble games.

Should go 8 to 9 deep with minutes according to game need though.

 

[DSouthr]

I agree, except maybe on who backs up at PF. Seems like we have several possibilities there.

One big question this year is how far Hubert moves away from the IRON MAN approach. Did he go that route the last 2 seasons because he felt he had to, or because that's his preference? We should find out this season.

Some thought he went Iron Man in 2022 for 2 main reasons. First, as a new coach without prior head coaching experience, he felt the pressure to win. Second because with the loss of Dawson Garcia and Anthony Harris, not to mention recurring injuries to Puff, the bench was pretty weak.

Oddly enough, with a great finish in 2022 under his belt, and no meaningful mid-season departures, Hubert stuck with the Iron Man approach in 2023. Sure, Pete Nance wasn't the next Brady Manuk, but you might think that would result in more bench play. It didn't.

Now you can argue that the 2023 team - especially the bench - just wasn't very good. The house cleaning at the end of the season certainly suggests that Hubert felt that way. So, although a couple of guys got some decent use off the bench, you could argue that Hubert felt he had no choice but to go Iron Man again.

I'm hoping Hubert makes liberal use of his bespoke lineup this season. He picked every one of these guys - whether by encouraging them to return or by adding them new to the roster. So there's no excuse for Iron Man. Unless maybe that's just how Hubert prefers to roll.

We'll see.

As you offer, Hubert's first season he tried to run with a 8-9man rotation but Puff was injured, seemed like something different every week. Garcia and Ant went away, Styles did get some run and Walton got all the ops he could have asked for early but played his way all the way to the bench sitting beside Blue Steel. The Iron 5 developed more due to the circumstances than be of Hubert's design.

But last season was very different, we had guys that needed PT to develop but didn't get the consistent PT they needed. To say the bench was not good is to me a cheap dismissal of kids that needed minutes to develop. To say he did not trust his bench means either they should have got minutes to develop but didn't or they should not be on scholly. You just don't stay with your starters for those kind of minutes and expect to have team chemistry and it be completely coach's decision. If you have players that are not good but were deemed good enough to be on scholly at UNC that shouts a lack of development. You saw a bench of guys that had lost all their passion at the end of last season, that SHOWED A SEVERE LACK OF LEADERSHIP from the very top. That simply can not be repeated this season, I like Hubert but this is business and this season just can not show that the coaching decisions of last season have not been learned from and stopped in it's tracks.

For me, it really isn't as much about win/loss totals, winning ACC tourneys, or deep NCAA runs at this point. It is simply now about making solid coaching decisions and not this experimenting on the fly, this lack of a solid plan of attack with players not embracing their roles and no accountability when they don't for a select few but ultra accountability for the rest?

 

[Bubspub88]

To echo what others have said, this season to me will say a lot about Coach Davis. First year, especially the game at Dook and FF run showed he can handle the big moments. Both seasons have shown he can recruit and he can work the portal. The one thing he has not shown, consistently, is can he coach, especially when it comes to player development?

For years I laughed at the dook fans trying to justify k playing his main 6 players and not giving any chance to the guys 8 -11 on the depth chart. Come February you could see the dead legs.

Hubert has zero freshmen from his first team and two from last year. Either he is not evaluating well or he is not developing them. What he has done so far is not a recipe for building a program. You cannot spend the first month every year getting an entire team on the same page.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

As you offer, Hubert's first season he tried to run with a 8-9man rotation but Puff was injured, seemed like something different every week. Garcia and Ant went away, Styles did get some run and Walton got all the ops he could have asked for early but played his way all the way to the bench sitting beside Blue Steel. The Iron 5 developed more due to the circumstances than be of Hubert's design.

But last season was very different, we had guys that needed PT to develop but didn't get the consistent PT they needed. To say the bench was not good is to me a cheap dismissal of kids that needed minutes to develop. To say he did not trust his bench means either they should have got minutes to develop but didn't or they should not be on scholly. You just don't stay with your starters for those kind of minutes and expect to have team chemistry and it be completely coach's decision. If you have players that are not good but were deemed good enough to be on scholly at UNC that shouts a lack of development. You saw a bench of guys that had lost all their passion at the end of last season, that SHOWED A SEVERE LACK OF LEADERSHIP from the very top. That simply can not be repeated this season, I like Hubert but this is business and this season just can not show that the coaching decisions of last season have not been learned from and stopped in it's tracks.

For me, it really isn't as much about win/loss totals, winning ACC tourneys, or deep NCAA runs at this point. It is simply now about making solid coaching decisions and not this experimenting on the fly, this lack of a solid plan of attack with players not embracing their roles and no accountability when they don't for a select few but ultra accountability for the rest?

Tough assessment.

 

[gary-7]

Well, right off the top I disagree with his starting rotation by not starting Ingram at the 3 and Withers at the 4 (and yes I fully realize many fans here prefer Ingram to start at the 4). From there projecting us to finish behind both duke and Miami, nope, I think we are neck & neck with duke but I think we are by far deeper with our bench. I don't care what Miami did last season, it means as little as what we did season before last as it applies to this coming season.

IF things remain as indicated by summer practices, your certain starters are EC, RJ and AB.
Past thet, Ryan, Ingram, Withers and perhaps even Washington give the staff flexibility in starting "small" (as indicated in the OP) or 'big" as you indicated.

 

[DSouthr]

I like small ball, it is a really nice change up but the high heat is the big man ball game! I think it is VERY hard if possible at all to project Jalen based off of last season. To me it was clear that Jalen just was not in basketball shape to play and that was very understandable considering just how long he was on the shelf and was not able to condition his body. I was hoping for more from him but he just really struck me as weak (that is NOT shade toward the kid, it is very understandable that he was weak). From all I hear that is no longer the case, seems this off season for him has been about working on S/C and getting his stamina ramped way up, good news for us. I don't know what the end result will be, you have to always wonder how much quickness and explosion a kid will get back after a knee.

Ingram, I see him as a throw back small forward more so than wing but he is a guy I trust to take open look jumpers all the way past the 3pt arch and enough of a basketball savvy to realize he does not need to take hard well defended jump shots, the anti-Caleb in other words. I do think he will get a LOT of open looks and due to the type of shots I think he will take I think he will be a near 40% 3pt guy. Very similar type shots that Leaky was getting last season, Ingram is a lot better shooter than Leaky and way more a confident shooter. The kid is a + defender, maybe not Leaky level few are. I want Ryan to get starter like minutes, I don't want Ingram or RJ to play much more than 25mins each and considering I like Ryan as the primary back up at the 2 and 3, there is no reason he can't get 25mins himself and wed should be able to get Paxon 5-10mins a game depending on the match ups.

I don't like going under sized if we don't have to for the majority of a game so of course I love Ingram's size at the 3 but at the 4 he is a touch under sized and not exactly a quick explosive leaper, that is where to me Withers is the guy at the 4. Withers plays above his listed height, my opinion, and is in my opinion a quick yet explosive leaper (I think he has some Brice Johnson in him), and adds with that a really nice non-stop motor. He can stretch out to trey but he is not going go out there and stand around like we watched nance do all last season, he is going to stay in constant motion but does so knowing where the ball is and looks to make sharp hard cuts thru and in to passing lanes. I think Bacot will love playing with him because he will demand defenders occupy him and not drop off to double Bacot, UNC fans are going to LOVE this kid's passion for the back cuts and quick rise up for the oops from Cadeau!

Ingram, Withers, Bacot as starters is board ownership on both ends of the court once again for UNC. I also really like that we have 2 starting guards that are very quick and solid at worst ball handles, spectacular in the case of Cadeau and very above average for RJ as a 2 guard. And finally we will have a PG that gets great PT rather than trying to run the point with shoot first combo guards. Combine all that with a bench full of shooters as well as front court length...Don't tell me that is a 3rd place in this ACC team...

 

[DSouthr]

I started to edit my last post and add this but that was already longer than many want to read thru so... I really want to see how Hubert handles the PG position, of course Cadeau starts and should but how many minutes and who is his back up? What I want to see is Cadeau playing no more than 30mins a game and his back up minutes going to Seth, I do NOT want to see RJ as Cadeau's primary back up but I do fear that Hubert will try to rotate RJ over to the point when Cadeau sits.

 

[IDUNK4HEELS]

Dsouthr as usual you make observations and comments with smart and accurate statements to back up your thinking on a subject.

I also prefer to play a big lineup which would take a ton of pressure off Bacot to do all of the dirty work on both boards but I also like the idea of playing Withers at the five when Bacot needs a breather because he has solid height and weight to battle other big boys like that horse from NC STATE.

But on the other hand if Cadeau has problems consistently hitting from the outside which has never been his strength playing Ryan at the three or as a third guard would be in my eyes a great backup plan since he is a consistent 40 percent plus shooter from three point land.

Until he can proves me wrong I do not like Washington as the first person to backup Bacot at the five but playing them both in the paint at the same time I would be all in on…

 

[ChiShankCity]

I want to see Ingram in the starting lineup because I think a Cadeau/Ingram ball screen offense can put a ton of pressure on the defense. It isn't the same as a Steph/Draymond Green 1-4 PNR, but I do see Ingram as a really good playmaker in that role where he can dive to the basket and make a high percentage play. I also think that can be a really effective offense in late clock situations.

I personally don't think we can afford to keep high-volume quality 3PT shooters on the bench which is why I'd like Cormac in the starting 5. I'm just going back to UNC's recent history. Under Roy, the majority of his Final Four teams had 3 dudes who could shoot it in the starting 5.
2005: Felton, McCants, Jawad Williams
2008: Lawson, Ellington. Green came off the bench, arguably should've started (?).
2009: Lawson, Ellington, Green
2016: Berry, Paige. Justin Jackson really struggled shooting that season.
2017: Berry, Jackson, Kenny Williams (33.8%)

If Cadeau can shoot it, great. If Withers can shoot it, great. If they're not great shooters or low volume shooters, then hopefully you get something better than Harrison Ingram's 31% career from 3. You need to have a minimum of 2 (probably 3) dudes who can take a lot of 3's and make a lot of 3's.

I have concerns about Ingram if he isn't surrounded by some shooting. He's been really inefficient his college career. Leaky had a much lower usage rate, but Ingram's shooting percentages were basically on par with Leaky's last year. Don't get me wrong, Ingram's a significant offensive upgrade over Leaky but I wouldn't count on him to score efficiently. Unless all of his previous issues were tied to a lack of talent on his team.
Last year:
2PT FG: Leaky 47%, Ingram 46%
3PT FG: Leaky 32.6%, Ingram 31.9%

 

[alabamaheel]

I want to see Ingram in the starting lineup because I think a Cadeau/Ingram ball screen offense can put a ton of pressure on the defense. It isn't the same as a Steph/Draymond Green 1-4 PNR, but I do see Ingram as a really good playmaker in that role where he can dive to the basket and make a high percentage play. I also think that can be a really effective offense in late clock situations.

I personally don't think we can afford to keep high-volume quality 3PT shooters on the bench which is why I'd like Cormac in the starting 5. I'm just going back to UNC's recent history. Under Roy, the vast majority of his Final Four teams had 3 dudes who could shoot it in the starting 5.
2005: Felton, McCants, Jawad Williams
2008: Lawson, Ellington. Green came off the bench, arguably should've started (?).
2009: Lawson, Ellington, Green
2016: Berry, Paige. Justin Jackson really struggled shooting that season.
2017: Berry, Jackson, Kenny Williams (33.8%)

If Cadeau can shoot it, great. If Withers can shoot it, great. If they're not great shooters or low volume shooters, then hopefully you get something better than Harrison Ingram's 31% career from 3. You need to have a minimum of 2 (probably 3) dudes who can take a lot of 3's and make a lot of 3's.

I have concerns about Ingram if he isn't surrounded by some shooting. He's been really inefficient his college career. Leaky had a much lower usage rate, but Ingram's shooting percentages were basically on par with Leaky's last year. Don't get me wrong, Ingram's a significant offensive upgrade over Leaky but I wouldn't count on him to score efficiently. Unless all of his previous issues were tied to a lack of talent on his team.
Last year:
2PT FG: Leaky 47%, Ingram 46%
3PT FG: Leaky 32.6%, Ingram 31.9%

Good write up and I agree with the shooting for sure. In todays game with only one big who can’t shoot, they’ll need peeps to keep defenses honest. Ryan at the three could be a fairly good lineup, regardless if the four is whithers or Ingram.

 

[TPFKAPFS]

At this point, everyone on the team except Seth and Bacot can hit an open 3! The game does NOT require 3 3pt shooters but it does require everyone to be an offensive threat! I fully expect Withers and Ingram to increase their % since the looks will be cleaner and they will move down the scouting report! I fully expect Seth and Cadeau to figure out how to be dangerous enough so peeps can't sag off. I expect peeps to play hard on D at every position and to see a very deep rotation! I fully expect Bacot (and all 5s) to be better at passing out of the post too! Our O needs a Big who commands a lot of attention (check); It requires a PG who knows how/when to feed the post-how to generate his own O-and when to skip pass it or drive/dish! (check) It requires all others to rebound/defend their positions and keep the D honest! (check) Our O thrives when it plays fast and when it bases everything off Secondary (we'll see) Our O thrives when it is deep and versatile + Our D thrives when it is multiple and especially when we have some scramble or jump/switches mixed in (we'll see)

Should be a fun ride!

 

[IDUNK4HEELS]

It has been well documented that Carolina was the worse three point shooting team in the conference last season so shooters must be found and prioritized to prevent another poor season.,Bacot can have a monster season n the paint if opponents cannot double team him like they did last year and consistent outside shooting will be the way to make that happen..:

 

[ChiShankCity]

Good write up and I agree with the shooting for sure. In todays game with only one big who can’t shoot, they’ll need peeps to keep defenses honest. Ryan at the three could be a fairly good lineup, regardless if the four is whithers or Ingram.

It has been well documented that Carolina was the worse three point shooting team in the conference last season so shooters must be found and prioritized to prevent another poor season.,Bacot can have a monster season n the paint if opponents cannot double team him like they did last year and consistent outside shooting will be the way to make that happen..:

I don't understand why it's become controversial(?) to say we need to have ample shooting on the floor (at all times), particularly within the starting five. IMO, the easiest way to get that is starting RJ and Cormac together. If they aren't in the lineup and we want to go big and somewhat traditional, then we'll need the shooting to either come from: Cadeau, Ingram, or Withers.

The other thing is we are generally pretty bad at defending the 3. We typically have a bad combination of not defending 3PT% well, and allowing teams to take a lot of 3's. The last time we ranked in the top 100 nationally in opponent's 3PT% was 2015. Other than last year, we have had 0 seasons ranked in the top 100 in opponent's 3PT rate. That was a part of Roy's philosophy but I question if that's the right defensive strategy in today's game. It was certainly a successful strategy under Roy. I'm just not sure it works today.

So, if we're pretty bad at defending 3's (which we've been for the better part of 20 years), then it's even more important for us to get something out of the 3-point shot offensively this season. Unless you want to play our 2PT offense against our 3PT offense. IMO, that's a really dangerous strategy.

I don't think it's even a question. We're going to need at least 2 dudes who can take 3's and make 3's. IMO, we'll probably need 3.

 

[gary-7]

I started to edit my last post and add this but that was already longer than many want to read thru so... I really want to see how Hubert handles the PG position, of course Cadeau starts and should but how many minutes and who is his back up? What I want to see is Cadeau playing no more than 30mins a game and his back up minutes going to Seth, I do NOT want to see RJ as Cadeau's primary back up but I do fear that Hubert will try to rotate RJ over to the point when Cadeau sits.

Without talking too much out of school, as it were --- again based on summer practices --- if we played a real game right now, RJ would slide over to relieve EC as the first backup option.

With that said, I agree that the optimal situation is for Seth to show enough development in Fall camp to merit backup minutes at the 1, thus allowing RJ to concentrate on being the best 2 he can be.

 

[gary-7]

I don't understand why it's become controversial(?) to say we need to have ample shooting on the floor (at all times), particularly within the starting five. IMO, the easiest way to get that is starting RJ and Cormac together. If they aren't in the lineup and we want to go big and somewhat traditional, then we'll need the shooting to either come from: Cadeau, Ingram, or Withers.

The other thing is we are generally pretty bad at defending the 3. We typically have a bad combination of not defending 3PT% well, and allowing teams to take a lot of 3's. The last time we ranked in the top 100 nationally in opponent's 3PT% was 2015. Other than last year, we have had 0 seasons ranked in the top 100 in opponent's 3PT rate. That was a part of Roy's philosophy but I question if that's the right defensive strategy in today's game.

So, if we're pretty bad at defending 3's (which we've been for the better part of 20 years), then it's even more important for us to get something out of the 3-point shot offensively this season. Unless you want to play our 2PT offense against our 3PT offense. IMO, that's a really dangerous strategy.

I don't think it's even a question. We're going to need at least 2 dudes who can take 3's and make 3's. IMO, we'll probably need 3.

I'm not sure why it is that you don't seem to get that Cadeau and Ingram can shoot the rock.

 

[ChiShankCity]

I'm not sure why it is that you don't seem to get that Cadeau and Ingram can shoot the rock.

Ingram can? That'd be huge. I'm going off his 62% career FT shooting percentage and I think it's safer to not depend on him to be a 35%+ shooter.

Cadeau... I guess I'm in the wait and see mode with all the hype around him. If Cadeau can shoot it, then great and makes things easier.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

I started to edit my last post and add this but that was already longer than many want to read thru so... I really want to see how Hubert handles the PG position, of course Cadeau starts and should but how many minutes and who is his back up? What I want to see is Cadeau playing no more than 30mins a game and his back up minutes going to Seth, I do NOT want to see RJ as Cadeau's primary back up but I do fear that Hubert will try to rotate RJ over to the point when Cadeau sits.

If Seth backs up Cadeau, that cuts Cormac's minutes. Or maybe Withers's minutes.

I'm assuming RJ will play 30 minutes. If he plays all of that at SG, then that only leaves 10 minutes for Cormac (or Paxson) at SG. If RJ backs up at point, that leaves 20 minutes at SG for Cormac (or Paxson).

If Ingram starts and plays most of his minutes at PF - which you do not want and where he is undersized - that lets Cormac get his minutes at SF - where he us also undersized. And that means Withers gets fewer minutes.

So . . . basically, if Seth is our backup point, he takes those minutes from either Cormac or Withers.

What it boils down to is whether you'd rather have Seth on the floor, or Cormac, or Withers. As much as I like Seth - I was the first person on this board to push for him, after all - his shooting would have to improve a whole lot for me to want him on the floor ahead of Cormac or Withers.

 

[Rabidfrog]

I have said this before and will reiterate it here… it appeared to me that HD was using an NBA style substitution system.

Where your “stars” play big minutes and your subs are game to game situational. The other team is bigger, your big man subs get time — the other team has good guards, your defensive guard specialists get lots of time — athletic? Your wings get time… this seemed to be the pattern to me from last year especially. You are supposed to stay ready for big minutes when the situation calls for it. But then if you show you were not ready then he won’t call on you again — that might work in the NBA, it WILL NOT with college students. They will check out and lose confidence and motivation.
We saw that last year - I am hopeful he can make the adjustment this year to be a trainer thru minutes early in the season. I am hopeful he focuses on the Carolina, share the minutes & the glory — but if he continues to have an NBA philosophy of stars play, subs are for matchups… then the subs will not get consistent minutes and will get discouraged… again

 

[ChiShankCity]

I have said this before and will reiterate it here… it appeared to me that HD was using an NBA style substitution system.

Where your “stars” play big minutes and your subs are game to game situational. The other team is bigger, your big man subs get time — the other team has good guards, your defensive guard specialists get lots of time — athletic? Your wings get time… this seemed to be the pattern to me from last year especially. You are supposed to stay ready for big minutes when the situation calls for it. But then if you show you were not ready then he won’t call on you again — that might work in the NBA, it WILL NOT with college students. They will check out and lose confidence and motivation.
We saw that last year - I am hopeful he can make the adjustment this year to be a trainer thru minutes early in the season. I am hopeful he focuses on the Carolina, share the minutes & the glory — but if he continues to have an NBA philosophy of stars play, subs are for matchups… then the subs will not get consistent minutes and will get discouraged… again

I disagree that the NBA is a game-to-game and situational substitution pattern. I think all NBA teams have definitive substitution patterns. Once the coaches figure out rotations that they're comfortable with, it's pretty set. Then injuries and youth development may alter it throughout the season. But typically, every team knows almost exactly when their star player is going to the bench. It varies in the playoffs because the playoffs are more matchup dependent.

Below is a chart of the Lakers sub patterns in 2019-20. You can clearly see that LeBron and the majority of the starters' minutes were clearly established for the season.

Also, Pascal Siakam led the NBA last year in minutes/game at 37.1 MPG. In a 48 minute game, he played an average of 78% of the minutes. We had 2 guys last year (Caleb and RJ) playing over 87% of the minutes. The NBA subs a lot more than we did last year, even for the players who play the most minutes.

So our substitution patterns last year really weren't anything like the NBA. I don't understand the whole "Hubert does everything like the NBA" logic either. Hubert never spent a minute on an NBA staff did he?

 

[dtodd4475]

Agreed, the guys on the bench in the league know their approximate minutes. They also play 3 sometimes 4 48 minute games a week over 82. The bench is a must in the league.

 

[DSouthr]

Jung is really missing his true calling, he should be in politics, where else is better to use his ability to make up his own fact, IE Ingram can not shoot, and then point back to his own made up facts to make his case for someone else to play the position?

Jung is very clearly not wanting to share why Ingram's numbers were what they were or the absolute FACT that not only will Ingram be in a different role than he was but a role that gives him wide open Leaky Black like looks. Oh my, how crazy am I to consider his going from scoring option #2 last season, double teamed constantly and charged with being a facilitator, in other words one of the 2 major players opposing teams red circled to have to defend hard to a guy defenses will chose to pull off of when help has to go to our other players.

As an example, I submit Caleb Love, shot 29% from 3, why, well because Caleb was well known to be able to hit those long treys so defenses focused on making those much harder, what would Caleb have done had he got Leaky Black like wide open jumpers? Defenses know a strong shooter can not be allowed to get clean looks just as they know a weak shooter can be given open looks until he proves he will burn you for them. It is pick your poison but you can't let a strong shooter beat you going in to the game, they don't double you because you are a WEAK shooter! Guys, that is just simple common sense.

 

[DSouthr]

I have said this before and will reiterate it here… it appeared to me that HD was using an NBA style substitution system.

Where your “stars” play big minutes and your subs are game to game situational. The other team is bigger, your big man subs get time — the other team has good guards, your defensive guard specialists get lots of time — athletic? Your wings get time… this seemed to be the pattern to me from last year especially. You are supposed to stay ready for big minutes when the situation calls for it. But then if you show you were not ready then he won’t call on you again — that might work in the NBA, it WILL NOT with college students. They will check out and lose confidence and motivation.
We saw that last year - I am hopeful he can make the adjustment this year to be a trainer thru minutes early in the season. I am hopeful he focuses on the Carolina, share the minutes & the glory — but if he continues to have an NBA philosophy of stars play, subs are for matchups… then the subs will not get consistent minutes and will get discouraged… again

"Where your “stars” play big minutes and your subs are game to game situational"... I agree with this, Hubert has for the most part said this publicly. But the NBA has more preset rotations, Hubert is doing the exact opposite, he seems to be making on the fly decisions on his bench players while giving his starters much more latitude. There absolutely seems to be more accountability for the guys coming off the bench than for the starters and from my perspective it is a glaring concern. I can see giving starters a bit more wiggle room. But when you allow Caleb Love to pump up 25 shots and maybe make 8 of them while Tyler Nickel misses 2 shots in a row and is pulled and doesn't play for the next 2 games the accountability gap is HUGE! Is that how they do it in the NBA?

" You are supposed to stay ready for big minutes when the situation calls for it. But then if you show you were not ready then he won’t call on you again — that might work in the NBA, it WILL NOT with college students. They will check out and lose confidence and motivation." And didn't we see just that to end last season. Trimble was a shell of the player he was going in to that season, Dunn withered as his PT decreased, Styles totally disappeared, and of course Nickel became a ghost and didn't we have a guy named McKoy on the team? It is silly to suggest that a kid stays ready at all times even thou he knows he will be lucky to play a minute or 2 in a game if at all? Human nature just does not work that way. It is like asking a kid to sprint out off a rebound because we are going to a solid primary break op and not throwing the ball to him to finish, a few times of that and that kid is not going to run out nearly as hard.

Practice is great but fact is you can not replicate game like conditions in practice, you can not know what a kid can do in game like situations until you put him in games, that is where the cream rises, practice is vital but it does not reflect a real game situation. A summer pick up game, no matter how spirited will NEVER reflect the circumstances of a UNC vs duke game. Kids have to play in real games to develop and they need to know they will have consistent ops in real games to prepare for.

 

[ChiShankCity]

Jung is really missing his true calling, he should be in politics, where else is better to use his ability to make up his own fact, IE Ingram can not shoot, and then point back to his own made up facts to make his case for someone else to play the position?

Jung is very clearly not wanting to share why Ingram's numbers were what they were or the absolute FACT that not only will Ingram be in a different role than he was but a role that gives him wide open Leaky Black like looks. Oh my, how crazy am I to consider his going from scoring option #2 last season, double teamed constantly and charged with being a facilitator, in other words one of the 2 major players opposing teams red circled to have to defend hard to a guy defenses will chose to pull off of when help has to go to our other players.

As an example, I submit Caleb Love, shot 29% from 3, why, well because Caleb was well known to be able to hit those long treys so defenses focused on making those much harder, what would Caleb have done had he got Leaky Black like wide open jumpers? Defenses know a strong shooter can not be allowed to get clean looks just as they know a weak shooter can be given open looks until he proves he will burn you for them. It is pick your poison but you can't let a strong shooter beat you going in to the game, they don't double you because you are a WEAK shooter! Guys, that is just simple common sense.

There are certainly signs for optimism that say Ingram will be a better shooter here than he was at Stanford. One his his biggest strengths last year was catch-and-shoot situations. 55% effective FG and 1.1132 points-per-possession. Each ranked in the top 76th percentile nationally. So assuming he gets more of those, he's appears to be a capable catch-and-shoot spot up shooter, hopefully he takes advantage of those opportunities here.

Whether you think his percentages will all change because he won't be the 1 or 2 option here is fine and an argument. My other concern is his career 62.9% FT shooting. I personally don't think that translates well and is a good indicator of his shooting ability in games. So that's why I don't expect him to be a good shooter.

The main reasons I prefer Ryan starting at the 3 is:
1. Really good corner 3PT shooter and I think we'll need that. Last year, the NCAA average from corner 3's was 36% from each corner. Ryan shot over 40% on corner 3's last year. Ingram shot 4/14, so small sample size.
2. Elite player in transition last year. 1.39 points-per-possession, 92nd percentile nationally. And Notre Dame and Stanford played 2 of the slower tempos in the country.
2022-23 shooting map below:

2021-22 shooting map below:

It's interesting how Cormac Ryan is a clear better shooter from the right side of the floor vs the left side. It's been that way for 2 years. Curious how that will play this season.

If necessary, here's Ingram's heat map last year (below). I prefer Ryan and Ingram to be in the lineup together. I think Ingram's passing will be a valuable asset. However, if Withers is a really good shooter, that may offer another weapon that Ingram cannot provide. It all remains to be seen, but that's why I prefer Ryan starting at the 3.

 

[DSouthr]

The free throw shooting is a concern, will give you that but free throw shooting is more about being able to settle your mind at the line, to go from being mentally sped up to just slowing it all down because you have more time to think about it rather than go on instinctive reaction. TRUE, most great jump shooters are also great at the free throw line but I believe that is more due to the fact that they are already extremely confident in their ability to shoot and don't really think about it that much when they go to the line. It is when you think that you get in trouble at the free throw line, consider how much lower the free throw % would be for most shooters in a game ending situation as compared to a free throw in the first half. I think Ingram shoots it well enough that he just needs to learn to settle his mind a bit more at the line and just go thru his pre-shot routine and trust it. With the way he jump shoots, I think he should be around 78% at the line if not more.

 

[gauchoheel]

Well, right off the top I disagree with his starting rotation by not starting Ingram at the 3 and Withers at the 4 (and yes I fully realize many fans here prefer Ingram to start at the 4). From there projecting us to finish behind both duke and Miami, nope, I think we are neck & neck with duke but I think we are by far deeper with our bench. I don't care what Miami did last season, it means as little as what we did season before last as it applies to this coming season.

Our bench is deep? How?
Everyone is unproven.

Don't know how you could watch last season and see who they have returning and say we're neck and neck with dook. I'll hold off on getting high on our guys until they prove something on the court.

 

[gary-7]

Our bench is deep? How?
Everyone is unproven.

Don't know how you could watch last season and see who they have returning and say we're neck and neck with dook. I'll hold off on getting high on our guys until they prove something on the court.

Two things here, brother:
1. If, and I mean IF we play at the tempo perpetrated in the Smith Center thus far this summer, well..... all I can say to dook is "buckle up, buttercups".:. and,
2. If #1 indeed is in the cards come Fall, then just throw the ugliness that was last season out with yesterday's garbage...

 

[gary-7]

Jung is really missing his true calling, he should be in politics, where else is better to use his ability to make up his own fact, IE Ingram can not shoot, and then point back to his own made up facts to make his case for someone else to play the position?

...and folks wonder why I hafta to keep pointing out that basketball ain't a video game.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

I have said this before and will reiterate it here… it appeared to me that HD was using an NBA style substitution system.

Where your “stars” play big minutes and your subs are game to game situational. The other team is bigger, your big man subs get time — the other team has good guards, your defensive guard specialists get lots of time — athletic? Your wings get time… this seemed to be the pattern to me from last year especially. You are supposed to stay ready for big minutes when the situation calls for it. But then if you show you were not ready then he won’t call on you again — that might work in the NBA, it WILL NOT with college students. They will check out and lose confidence and motivation.
We saw that last year - I am hopeful he can make the adjustment this year to be a trainer thru minutes early in the season. I am hopeful he focuses on the Carolina, share the minutes & the glory — but if he continues to have an NBA philosophy of stars play, subs are for matchups… then the subs will not get consistent minutes and will get discouraged… again

I seldom watch the NBA, but what you describe does remind me of last year's patterns.

At the time, I was of the opinion that Hubert probably would play some of those benchers more - including letting Caleb ride the pine some of the time - EXCEPT he didn't think he had options that were good enough.

Early on Hubert gave Seth some decent PT, and he was looking good . . . until the UVa game. For whatever reason, after that game, Seth seemed to have lost his mojo, and Hubert became more reluctant to put him in.

D'Marco was another player Hubert seemed to lose confidence in. He had improved and got more PT early, but his progression was hampered for a bit by injury. Nevertheless he came back and did well - he was MVP against Louisville - until the NC State game. Then, like Seth, he seem to lose some steam. He was getting over 12 mpg until then; but saw reduced action (7 mpg) after that.

Dontrez never earned Hubert's confidence. He only saw the floor in 15 of our 33 games, averaged only 6 mpg, and only got good minutes against our weakest foes.

Here are some telling numbers. Over our last 10 games...

-- In 5 games only 6 guys got double digit minutes
-- In 3 games only 7 guys got double digit minutes
-- And in 2 games 8 guys got double digit minutes
-- Puff was the 6th man in all 10 games.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

...and folks wonder why I hafta to keep pointing out that basketball ain't a video game.

I wish it were a video game. Then I wouldn't have to wait until November to watch new games.

Only 3 more months. That's eternity.

 

[Rabidfrog]

I disagree that the NBA is a game-to-game and situational substitution pattern. I think all NBA teams have definitive substitution patterns. Once the coaches figure out rotations that they're comfortable with, it's pretty set. Then injuries and youth development may alter it throughout the season. But typically, every team knows almost exactly when their star player is going to the bench. It varies in the playoffs because the playoffs are more matchup dependent.

Below is a chart of the Lakers sub patterns in 2019-20. You can clearly see that LeBron and the majority of the starters' minutes were clearly established for the season.

Also, Pascal Siakam led the NBA last year in minutes/game at 37.1 MPG. In a 48 minute game, he played an average of 78% of the minutes. We had 2 guys last year (Caleb and RJ) playing over 87% of the minutes. The NBA subs a lot more than we did last year, even for the players who play the most minutes.

So our substitution patterns last year really weren't anything like the NBA. I don't understand the whole "Hubert does everything like the NBA" logic either. Hubert never spent a minute on an NBA staff did he?

I would agree, and would clarify to your point, that I am talking about NBA Playoffs, series style matchup systems.


I have no idea if it is on purpose to look like how the NBA “feels”. It didn’t work.

I also think there is a factor in subbing guards that goes back to his shooter’s mindset. It SEEMS like He wants them to get in rhythm and so either “rides the hot hand” or “they just need to get more shots up”. This also leads to less subs… and awful percentages