OOTB's Political Thread . ..

[blazers]

Also, here is the NY Times article.

Redirect Notice

It's a stunning revelation. The vast majority of positives (in a sample from the NE) basically aren't actionable. The person who tested positive won't get sick and they won't spread to others. Basically, they shouldn't be labeled positive at all.

The conclusion from that article is simply that a huge % people who get a positive result are no longer contagious and don’t need to isolate.

To say "shouldn't have been judged as positive " seems like you are confusing the findings in that article, or have some specific view on what "positive" means. At one time they were able to spread it and were potentially sick.

The pcr test checks viral load. The findings are about checking "viral load" with respect to the current level of infectiousness in the test-taker. This is unrelated to how sick they might be now or in the future, or whether they were a spreader a week ago, it is just related to whether or not they could be a spreader now.

Recall that peak infectiousness is prior to any symptoms, meaning your viral load is highest before you even feel it, then it slowly decreases thereafter.

The average person is PCR positive for about 30 days. But the average person is only infectious for about 7 days (symptomatic or asymptomatic). The data just shows we're catching too many people AFTER that 7 day window.

One reason for testing is to determine the clinical health of the human. PCR is good for this. Another reason is to check infectiousness for the sake of community health & spread and if we're using PCR then the article says we're testing at the wrong times because the window of infectiousness is small, and our tests are either too soon or too late.

For you to conclude "The person who tested positive won't get sick" is wrong, it just means that are probably done spreading.

 

[blazers]

You're a fu*kin moron. It's people like you ruining our country. I hope you're the next unarmed man to be shot by police.

 

[cletusnow]

Summer's drawings to a close, and the Democrats are in serious, serious trouble. The BLM protests/riots are turning into a political liability, and there's still 2 months to go. I don't see how this genie can be popped back into the bottle.

Just imagine for a second that you're the Mayor of Portland. The weekly riots in your city have eclipsed mere destruction, and now a man has been executed in the streets because of his political affiliation. They've lasted 90+ days, and public sentiment is turning against the cause. What do you do next?

1. Unleash the police, and let them take back control of the streets. Problem: You've spent the last few months demonizing the cops, and doing this would just feed into the police brutality narrative that started this whole thing off.

2. Call in national troops. No one can stand against them, and they arrive in overwhelming numbers. Riot over. Problem: Trump wanted you to do this, so it's politically unthinkable.

3. Blame Trump. Useful in any situation as a Democrat. Problem: You're starting to alienate independents nationally with this strategy. Portland is full of lefties, so you'll be fine politically. But how much does the national party come down on you for doing nothing?

4. Walk the narrow path. Condemn violence and rioting and call for these tactics to stop. But still support the cause, obviously. Problem: The wokies get mad at you for being insufficiently radical. And you've basically changed nothing, so all you can do is pray that things don't escalate further.

Choose your own adventure.

Answer:
These ‘riot city mayors’ would authorize the use of lethal force on any and all out after curfew.

 

[bluetoe]

You need to step away from facebook for awhile.

not sure how I can step away from something I've never indulged in, FB or any other social media...unless message boards count as social media. Maybe you should try not being a presumptuous dipshit who has nothing to say but goes ahead and says it anyway.

 

[ProfessorOwl]

The conclusion from that article is simply that a huge % people who get a positive result are no longer contagious and don’t need to isolate.

To say "shouldn't have been judged as positive " seems like you are confusing the findings in that article, or have some specific view on what "positive" means. At one time they were able to spread it and were potentially sick.

The pcr test checks viral load. The findings are about checking "viral load" with respect to the current level of infectiousness in the test-taker. This is unrelated to how sick they might be now or in the future, or whether they were a spreader a week ago, it is just related to whether or not they could be a spreader now.

Recall that peak infectiousness is prior to any symptoms, meaning your viral load is highest before you even feel it, then it slowly decreases thereafter.

The average person is PCR positive for about 30 days. But the average person is only infectious for about 7 days (symptomatic or asymptomatic). The data just shows we're catching too many people AFTER that 7 day window.

One reason for testing is to determine the clinical health of the human. PCR is good for this. Another reason is to check infectiousness for the sake of community health & spread and if we're using PCR then the article says we're testing at the wrong times because the window of infectiousness is small, and our tests are either too soon or too late.

For you to conclude "The person who tested positive won't get sick" is wrong, it just means that are probably done spreading.

This is a nonsense. 100% wrong analysis. They are done spreading at the time of the test because *they never were spreading*.

You have 3 possible scenarios here.

1. The person is genuinely sick with covid. They will easily meet the threshold of positivity, so this testing problem is irrelevant for them. N/A

2. The person was unknowingly exposed to covid in the past. They never were sick enough to get a test. Chances are, they have been discovered via contact tracing. They receive a positive test that is literally meaningless. They were never sick, never made others sick, and will never be sick.

3. This person is about to be sick with covid. They were tested in the Goldilocks zone were they have been exposed, but their disease has yet to progress to become a severe case OR it never will be a severe/noticeable case.


It's a mathematical impossibility for #3 to be any significant percentage of the overall positive cases. For #3 to be significant, the disease counts would have to be increasing massively. A large proportion of the cases would have to be new cases. We know that wasn't the case in July/August.

So #2 is the only possibility. The vast majority of positives are actually old positives of people who were never sick from the virus, and never made other sick.

This means that your testing is bunk. It's not revealing that a pandemic is happening, it's revealing that one has already happened.

 

[blazers]

This is a nonsense. 100% wrong analysis. They are done spreading at the time of the test because *they never were spreading*.

You have 3 possible scenarios here.

1. The person is genuinely sick with covid. They will easily meet the threshold of positivity, so this testing problem is irrelevant for them. N/A

2. The person was unknowingly exposed to covid in the past. They never were sick enough to get a test. Chances are, they have been discovered via contact tracing. They receive a positive test that is literally meaningless. They were never sick, never made others sick, and will never be sick.

3. This person is about to be sick with covid. They were tested in the Goldilocks zone were they have been exposed, but their disease has yet to progress to become a severe case OR it never will be a severe/noticeable case.


It's a mathematical impossibility for #3 to be any significant percentage of the overall positive cases. For #3 to be significant, the disease counts would have to be increasing massively. A large proportion of the cases would have to be new cases. We know that wasn't the case in July/August.

So #2 is the only possibility. The vast majority of positives are actually old positives of people who were never sick from the virus, and never made other sick.

This means that your testing is bunk. It's not revealing that a pandemic is happening, it's revealing that one has already happened.

Regarding because *they never were spreading* -- can you explain this? The window for spreading is about 7 days, the window for PCR positive is about 30. These people could be getting tested weeks beyond the time they were spreaders.

Regarding #2 , "They were never sick, never made others sick" -- you seem to ignore asymptomatic spread.

You should go read the twitter thread of apoorva from NYT, the author, and Michael Mina the testing expert she interviewed if you're still confused. They offer more detail.

 

[blazers]

Cool. I'll give you the same opportunity. Since every other sentence is a lie, you should have ZERO problems giving me 30 lies he's told. C'mon, choade smoker. That should be an easy task.

The counts for 'mostly false', false and 'insanely false' are off the charts compared to other US politicians:

PolitiFact | Donald Trump

PolitiFact is a fact-checking website that rates the accuracy of claims by elected officials and others on its Truth-O-Meter.

www.politifact.com

I get that you might be a fiscal conservative hoping for smaller gov, or some other legit reason for wanting the republican party to win, but to believe Trump is honest and trustworthy is bizarre.

 

[ProfessorOwl]

Asymptomatic spread is rare. If you aren't sick enough to make yourself symptomatic, the likelyhood of you infecting others is very low.

The people that make up case #2 are the vast majority of these "low threshold positives". And they aren't sick, haven't been sick, and didn't make others sick.

By categorizing them as positive, you paint a false picture of the pandemic. The correct picture is obvious. In some parts of the US (the NE), the pandemic has been over for months. In others, we are rapidly approaching the end.

 

[blazers]

Asymptomatic spread is rare.

Wut?

 

[ProfessorOwl]

Asymptomatic spread is rare. Everyone acknowledges this. The issue is people get asymptomatic spread and presymptomatic spread confused.

So they hear about an entire party getting infected from one guy who feels fine (and gets sick the next day) and think it's asymptomatic spread. It's not.

We've already determined that most of these positives aren't from case #3 (the presymptomatic). So yes, for these positive tests, they haven't spread the disease to other people. Hard to do that when you never become symptomatic yourself.

 

[heelmanwilm]

The counts for 'mostly false', false and 'insanely false' are off the charts compared to other US politicians:

PolitiFact | Donald Trump

PolitiFact is a fact-checking website that rates the accuracy of claims by elected officials and others on its Truth-O-Meter.

www.politifact.com

I get that you might be a fiscal conservative hoping for smaller gov, or some other legit reason for wanting the republican party to win, but to believe Trump is honest and trustworthy is bizarre.

Out of over 800 statements checked around 120 were true or mostly true. So you were wrong it isnt “every other thing he says is a lie” it’s more like “8 of every 10 things he says is a lie”.

 

[Heels Noir]

Only 142 days remaining . . .

The Donald Trump Farewell Tour

"Will you miss me when I'm gone? No?"

 

[Heels Noir]

I'll bet the coronavirus scare has been a blessing in your home, poopslinger, allowing your wife and kids to have a ready-made excuse to keep their distance from you.

 

[strummingram]

Only 142 days remaining . . .

The Donald Trump Farewell Tour

"Will you miss me when I'm gone? No?"

I wouldn't get too comfortable with that.

 

[Heels Noir]

I wouldn't get too comfortable with that.

Too late.

And oh, yeah, the sport of football hasn't been outlawed due the risk of injuries, strum!

 

[strummingram]

And oh, yeah, the sport of football hasn't been outlawed due the risk of injuries, strum!

Yet... but, it's coming.

 

[blazers]

 

[blazers]

^ interesting numbers in that poll in his thread.

Trump’s popularity slips in latest Military Times poll — and more troops say they’ll vote for Biden

About half of troops surveyed for the poll said they have an unfavorable view of the commander in chief.

www.militarytimes.com

88% identify as repub, but only 37% voting for Trump at time of poll.

 

[dadika13]

There are probably a few libertarians who have participated in the destruction, but i doubt right wingers contribute much to the nightly chaos.

Remember, we know what a massive, grass roots, right wing political movement from the right looks like. The Tea Party was only a decade ago. Was a single pane of glass broken in any of their protests? People on the right respect the right to private property.

Also, here is the NY Times article.

Redirect Notice

It's a stunning revelation. The vast majority of positives (in a sample from the NE) basically aren't actionable. The person who tested positive won't get sick and they won't spread to others. Basically, they shouldn't be labeled positive at all.

This is interesting and I did miss this - so I thank you for poasting.

I tend to agree with you here and not with @blazers because we have to look at what we're trying to achieve when someone is given a positive test.

Having someone test positive who is no longer contagious and has minimal traces is pointless. All it does is increase numbers which falsely inflate the danger which has very negative impacts on the rest of life, business, etc.

I think the root of it is that if you have symptoms, get a damn test and get it right away. If you're past the point of symptoms or think you were exposed a week ago and now get a test, it's pointless and just hurts everyone else.

 

[gteeitup]

had a dude already tell me just two weeks ago that if trump loses it's rigged...no mention of how or why, and this was before both conventions.

so basically, the mindset of some the most loyal trump supporters either already believe it or they are softening the blow...on here though, i at least admire the moxie.

 

[heelmanwilm]

had a dude already tell me just two weeks ago that if trump loses it's rigged...no mention of how or why, and this was before both conventions.

so basically, the mindset of some the most loyal trump supporters either already believe it or they are softening the blow...on here though, i at least admire the moxie.

It’s only fitting that 2020 will come to a close with the most bizarre election the country’s ever had.

 

[prlyles]

This is one of John McCain's top aides:

Over the weekend, Republican Steve Schmidt, who ran John McCain's 2008 campaign for president, was interviewed on MSNBC.
In response to a very general question regarding the Trump Presidency, Mr. Schmidt spoke for two solid minutes and gave the most insightful and brutally honest response of what the Trump Presidency has done to our great country.
“Donald Trump has been the worst president this country has ever had. And, I don't say that hyperbolically. He is. But he is a consequential president. And, he has brought this country in three short years to a place of weakness that is simply unimaginable if you were pondering where we are today from the day where Barack Obama left office. And, there were a lot of us on that day who were deeply skeptical and very worried about what a Trump presidency would be. But this is a moment of unparalleled national humiliation, of weakness.”
"When you listen to the President, these are the musings of an imbecile. An idiot. And I don't use those words to name call. I use them because they are the precise words of the English language to describe his behavior. His comportment. His actions. We've never seen a level of incompetence, a level of ineptitude so staggering on a daily basis by anybody in the history of the country whose ever been charged with substantial responsibilities.”
"It's just astonishing that this man is president of the United States. The man, the con man, from New York City. Many bankruptcies, failed businesses, a reality show, that branded him as something that he never was. A successful businessman. Well, he's the President of the United States now, and the man who said he would make the country great again. And he's brought death, suffering, and economic collapse on truly an epic scale."
"And, let's be clear. This isn't happening in every country around the world. This place. Our place. Our home. Our country. The United States. We are the epicenter. We are the place where you're the most likely to die from this disease. We're the ones with the most shattered economy. And we are, because of the fool that sits in the Oval Office."

 

[tarheel0910]

So demonize the police, then try to tell them they're going to do something without asking them. That will work fine.

https://www.oregonlive.com/clackama...rowns-request-to-staff-portland-protests.html

 

[dadika13]

“Donald Trump has been the worst president this country has ever had.

There's that word again...

Seems as though that advisor forgot that:

- One President was a drunk. Like not the "oh I'm in the 1800s so I drink a lot" drunk, he was an actual drunk and would fall asleep regularly in meetings.
- One President hired all his friends to embezzle billions in today's currency while he played golf and poker before he died after 2 years in office.
- One President literally hastened an actual Civil War that killed 700,000 - 800,000 Americans.
- One President refused to accept that the Civil War actually happened and used Congress being out of session to just try to make things as they were and put black people back into pseudo-slavery.

If he loses in Novemeber, DJT won't be high on any Presidential rankings list when historians get around to it but calling him the worst simply means you haven't studied the shitshows of our 14th, 15th, 17th, and 29th Presidents.

 

[prlyles]

There's that word again...

Seems as though that advisor forgot that:

- One President was a drunk. Like not the "oh I'm in the 1800s so I drink a lot" drunk, he was an actual drunk and would fall asleep regularly in meetings.
- One President hired all his friends to embezzle billions in today's currency while he played golf and poker before he died after 2 years in office.
- One President literally hastened an actual Civil War that killed 700,000 - 800,000 Americans.
- One President refused to accept that the Civil War actually happened and used Congress being out of session to just try to make things as they were and put black people back into pseudo-slavery.

If he loses in Novemeber, DJT won't be high on any Presidential rankings list when historians get around to it but calling him the worst simply means you haven't studied the shitshows of our 14th, 15th, 17th, and 29th Presidents.

Your argument doesn’t make sense. You are trying to turn your opinions into facts and it just doesn’t work that way as you should know.

 

[tarheel0910]

.

Your argument doesn’t make sense. You are trying to turn your opinions into facts and it just doesn’t work that way as you should know.

So you think Trump is worse than all of those mentioned?

 

[heelmanwilm]

So this weeks episode of “I know you’re dumb but so am I” features Biden blabbering incoherently about covid deaths the last 100yrs vs Trump claiming people lurking in dark shadows and wearing all black on airplanes are controlling Biden

 

[prlyles]

.

So you think Trump is worse than all of those mentioned?

And you don’t?

 

[tarheel0910]

And you don’t?

I think anyone who believes he's the worst president in history is either blinded by politics or doesn't know their history. I would say the same thing to anyone who thinks Trump is one of the best.

 

[prlyles]

I think anyone who believes he's the worst president in history is either blinded by politics or doesn't know their history. I would say the same thing to anyone who thinks Trump is one of the best.

Which one of those have hurt the country more than Trump?

 

[dadika13]

Your argument doesn’t make sense. You are trying to turn your opinions into facts and it just doesn’t work that way as you should know.

1. That's literally what you do with Trump, all the time. Like every day.
2. It's not an opinion that Pierce was a drunk. It's not an opinion that Harding hired his friends into very senior positions and ignored while they stole from the government. It's not an opinion that James Buchanan backed policy after policy that led us closer to and eventually into Civil War. It's also not opinion that Andrew Johnson opposed the 14th amendment, vetoed anything that resembled the south changing anything that would favor former slaves, and supported only former Confederate white men to be elected back into Congress because he wanted Congress to resemble pre-Civil War representation.

These are not opinions, these are facts. You seem to be confused.

 

[tarheel0910]

Which one of those have hurt the country more than Trump?

Read @dadika13's last two posts. If you still disagree, that puts you in the blinded by politics category.

 

[tarheel0910]

I remember when republicans said Obama was the worst president ever and when democrats said W was the worst president ever and when republicans said Clinton was the worst president ever. Notice a trend?

 

[blazers]

I think the root of it is that if you have symptoms, get a damn test and get it right away. If you're past the point of symptoms or think you were exposed a week ago and now get a test, it's pointless and just hurts everyone else.

I absolutely agree that a test in someone who is no longer contagious and has minimal traces is pointless

But your statement above ignores asymptomatic and presymptomatic spread. Half the spread, probably more, is coming from people who are unaware they're contagious.

What's the point of a test? a) clinical, to determine why a sick person is sick, b) surveillance, to determine level of community spread, c) isolation to prevent further spread.

The PCR test and the way it is being used now is only good for a) , that's the point of the article.

 

[prlyles]

1. That's literally what you do with Trump, all the time. Like every day.
2. It's not an opinion that Pierce was a drunk. It's not an opinion that Harding hired his friends into very senior positions and ignored while they stole from the government. It's not an opinion that James Buchanan backed policy after policy that led us closer to and eventually into Civil War. It's also not opinion that Andrew Johnson opposed the 14th amendment, vetoed anything that resembled the south changing anything that would favor former slaves, and supported only former Confederate white men to be elected back into Congress because he wanted Congress to resemble pre-Civil War representation.

These are not opinions, these are facts. You seem to be confused.

Of course they are. Most of what you said are facts but how bad those things hurt the country is opinion

 

[dadika13]

Of course they are. Most of what you said are facts but how bad those things hurt the country is opinion

You think "causing a Civil War" is bad is an opinion?

P.S. Love your backtrack. Your original argument was that I was just giving my opinion and now suddenly I have facts? Come on man. Just chalk this one up as an L and move on.

 

[cletusnow]

This is one of John McCain's top aides:

Over the weekend, Republican Steve Schmidt, who ran John McCain's 2008 campaign for president, was interviewed on MSNBC.
In response to a very general question regarding the Trump Presidency, Mr. Schmidt spoke for two solid minutes and gave the most insightful and brutally honest response of what the Trump Presidency has done to our great country.
“Donald Trump has been the worst president this country has ever had. And, I don't say that hyperbolically. He is. But he is a consequential president. And, he has brought this country in three short years to a place of weakness that is simply unimaginable if you were pondering where we are today from the day where Barack Obama left office. And, there were a lot of us on that day who were deeply skeptical and very worried about what a Trump presidency would be. But this is a moment of unparalleled national humiliation, of weakness.”
"When you listen to the President, these are the musings of an imbecile. An idiot. And I don't use those words to name call. I use them because they are the precise words of the English language to describe his behavior. His comportment. His actions. We've never seen a level of incompetence, a level of ineptitude so staggering on a daily basis by anybody in the history of the country whose ever been charged with substantial responsibilities.”
"It's just astonishing that this man is president of the United States. The man, the con man, from New York City. Many bankruptcies, failed businesses, a reality show, that branded him as something that he never was. A successful businessman. Well, he's the President of the United States now, and the man who said he would make the country great again. And he's brought death, suffering, and economic collapse on truly an epic scale."
"And, let's be clear. This isn't happening in every country around the world. This place. Our place. Our home. Our country. The United States. We are the epicenter. We are the place where you're the most likely to die from this disease. We're the ones with the most shattered economy. And we are, because of the fool that sits in the Oval Office."

Who gives a shit what ‘one of John McCain’s top aides’ said?

 

[Heels Noir]

Over the weekend, Republican Steve Schmidt, who ran John McCain's 2008 campaign for president, was interviewed on MSNBC.

I watch and listen to Steve Schmidt regularly, almost daily on MSNBC. He helped create The Lincoln Project and is very passionate in his opinions against Donald Trump. There are many Americans, including yours truly, who couldn't agree with him more.

There's that word again...

Seems as though that advisor forgot that:

- One President was a drunk. Like not the "oh I'm in the 1800s so I drink a lot" drunk, he was an actual drunk and would fall asleep regularly in meetings.
- One President hired all his friends to embezzle billions in today's currency while he played golf and poker before he died after 2 years in office.
- One President literally hastened an actual Civil War that killed 700,000 - 800,000 Americans.
- One President refused to accept that the Civil War actually happened and used Congress being out of session to just try to make things as they were and put black people back into pseudo-slavery.

Yeah, but consider this:

- One president never touched a drop of alcohol in his life, or so he says, but exhibits the impulsive and boorish behavior of a drunkard on a daily basis. And he may as well be drunk because in four years he has gotten so little work done outside of Twitter. He uses cabinet meetings to boast to the press about his personal accomplishments and lash out at his critics, while he regularly ignores the more pressing issues at hand.

- One president hired many of his cronies -- Paul Manafort, Rick Gates, Michael Cohen, Michael Flynn, George Papadopoulos, Roger Stone, Steve Bannon, et al -- to do his unethical dirty work for him while he plays golf and tries to broker deals with our sworn enemies -- Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Xi Jinping.

- One president originally ignored and still to this day miscalculates the significance and seriousness of a major world pandemic which has already taken over 183,000 U.S. lives in just over six months with no end in sight.

- One president swore he would build a wall along our southern border and make Mexico pay for it but instead has created a humanitarian and security crisis with more than 60,000 migrants from Central America being returned to Mexico and left stranded in squalid camps as helpless rape and torture victims at the hands of Mexican crime cartels. And don't forget the migrant processing centers with hundreds of victims, including children, living in cages and sleeping on floor mats.

It looks like Trump is just as bad as your four lowly-ranked presidents . . . COMBINED!! Talk about a shitshow!

Worst. President. EVER.

 

[nctransplant]

Which one of those have hurt the country more than Trump?

@UNC71-00 needs to get you a mask. The chemicals you are using to clean the bathrooms in his general store is effecting your brain.

 

[strummingram]

I remember when republicans said Obama was the worst president ever and when democrats said W was the worst president ever and when republicans said Clinton was the worst president ever. Notice a trend?

It reminds me of Christians who are convinced that "THESE ARE THE END TIMES as described in the Bible." Taken literally, the text of the Bible turned out to be a false alarm. But, that hasn't stopped generation after generation from insisting that "The TIME IS NIGH!"