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OOTB Carolina Basketball Discussion Thread

Star level has a very high correlation with skill level. That doesn't always transfer to production, because for the most part in basketball, top 10 recruits are gone after one year. A lot of top 20s are gone too. The issue isn't that they're top 10 recruits that were over rated, it's that they're freshmen that are trying to acclimate to the college game.

If you have former 5 stars on your team that are juniors/seniors (rare these days) they're almost certainly going to be better than the junior/senior 4 and 3 stars.
 
And furthermore, what % of 1st round picks play in the pro bowl?

Being a 1st round pick isn't the end all be all. Nor is being a 5 star recruit.
 
Hark_The_Sound_2010 said:
Star level has a very high correlation with skill level. That doesn't always transfer to production, because for the most part in basketball, top 10 recruits are gone after one year. A lot of top 20s are gone too. The issue isn't that they're top 10 recruits that were over rated, it's that they're freshmen that are trying to acclimate to the college game.

If you have former 5 stars on your team that are juniors/seniors (rare these days) they're almost certainly going to be better than the junior/senior 4 and 3 stars.
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Sure, but is a 3-4 star junior or senior more valuable to a team than a 5 star OAD?
 
UNC71-00 said:
No, first round draft pick is most likely going to be a 5 star (maybe), but a 5 star is not most likely going to be a first rounder.

How many 5 stars are there in any given year? How about 4 stars?

But regardless, I said success for the TEAM, not the individual.
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In football, there's about 16 5-stars. Later today I'll compile a list to prove you wrong.

Star ranking isn't indicative on a micro level (i.e. whether one specific guy makes it or doesn't make it), it's indicative on a macro level. I.E., in football, the teams with the most 5*s and 4*s always finish in the Top 10. So there's your TEAM aspect.
 
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TarHeelNation11 said:
In football, there's about 16 5-stars. Later today I'll compile a list to prove you wrong.

Star ranking isn't indicative on a micro level (i.e. whether one specific guy makes it or doesn't make it), it's indicative on a macro level. I.E., in football, the teams with the most 5*s and 4*s always finish in the Top 10. So there's your TEAM aspect.
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Sure- compile away. And do it for basketball too, since that was what I was originally discussing.
 
I think the number of stars is pretty indicative of talent. There are always exceptions(late bloomers, head cases) but there is a definitive correlation between rankings and talent.

Now your point about a 3* or 4* upperclassman potentially being more valuable/productive than a 5* OAD is a valid one. UNC is living off that principle these days.
 
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Archer2 said:
I think the number of stars is pretty indicative of talent. There are always exceptions(late bloomers, head cases) but there is a definitive correlation between rankings and talent.
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Talent yes. Execution of said talent, yes but not to the same degree.

I really don't care. Y'all can follow all the recruiting you want.
 
TarHeelNation11 said:
In football, there's about 16 5-stars. Later today I'll compile a list to prove you wrong.

Star ranking isn't indicative on a micro level (i.e. whether one specific guy makes it or doesn't make it), it's indicative on a macro level. I.E., in football, the teams with the most 5*s and 4*s always finish in the Top 10. So there's your TEAM aspect.
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This is all completely correct, except there are actually about twice that many 5-stars in any given foootball class.

Here THN. Let me save you the trouble:

The evidence is overwhelming: Despite some obvious, anecdotal exceptions, on the whole recruiting rankings clearly are useful for creating a realistic baseline for expectations. But the narrower your focus, the less useful they will become. (Recruiting Matters)
 
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^^ Ah you're right, there's like 30. I had 15 stuck in my head because a couple weeks ago I was looking up specifically 5* DLmen, and there's usually 15 or so DL 5*s
 
Raising Heel said:
This is all completely correct, except there are actually about twice that many 5-stars in any given foootball class.

Here THN. Let me save you the trouble:

The evidence is overwhelming: Despite some obvious, anecdotal exceptions, on the whole recruiting rankings clearly are useful for creating a realistic baseline for expectations. But the narrower your focus, the less useful they will become. (Recruiting Matters)
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Perfect. I agree completely.

And since I am narrowly focused on Carolina, I only care about the recruits who come to Carolina. I do not care about why others chose not to come to Carolina.
 
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UNC71-00 said:
Sure, but is a 3-4 star junior or senior more valuable to a team than a 5 star OAD?
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Ideally, a mixture of the two. Duke and UK have had some success with teams dominated by OADs, and UNC has had some success with 4 star junior/seniors. But I think teams that get 3 starters and 3 bench players that are 4 star Jr/Srs coupled with a stud OAD starter or two is the best formula.

UKs issue almost every year is that they don't have the experience/chemistry to win it all. UNC's issue most years is that they don't have enough talent to win it all. With Brandon Ingram on UNC last year - we almost certainly would have cut down the nets. With a Brice Johnson on UK this year - they'd almost certainly cut down the nets. Duke seemed to have the best blend of the two this year, but due to some injuries, Allen's antics, and K's back issues that seems to have been derailed.
 
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Hark_The_Sound_2010 said:
Ideally, a mixture of the two. Duke and UK have had some success with teams dominated by OADs, and UNC has had some success with 4 star junior/seniors. But I think teams that get 3 starters and 3 bench players that are 4 star Jr/Srs coupled with a stud OAD starter or two is the best formula.

UKs issue almost every year is that they don't have the experience/chemistry to win it all. UNC's issue most years is that they don't have enough talent to win it all. With Brandon Ingram on UNC last year - we almost certainly would have cut down the nets. With a Brice Johnson on UK this year - they'd almost certainly cut down the nets. Duke seemed to have the best blend of the two this year, but due to some injuries, Allen's antics, and K's back issues that seems to have been derailed.
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Excellent post. And to answer 71's question about a 3- or 4-star junior or senior being more valuable to a team than a 5-star OAD, I think it entirely depends on the other players on the roster -- as Hark explained -- and how good of a coach you have.
 
TarHeelMark said:
This has gotten past the point of being ridiculous. It is now ludicrous for dook to let him play. I'm sure the NCAA and ACC will say nothing to see here - move along. But this punk doesn't get benefit of the doubt any more, and that shove looks deliberate to me.
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His last two incidents play perfectly into the gray area where theres just enough doubt for him to avoid further punishment. I suspect he'll continue to walk the fence like this. To me its obvious that the fans booing him and the ass kicking were too much for him and he took it out first opportunity he could without it being blatant.
 
I love watching duke struggle. Of course just because it's duke but also because the more these OAD super teams struggle, the better arguments can be made against the OAD system. So I'm rooting hard for UK, duke and Zona to flop. I'm also rooting against individual success for the likes of Miles Bridges, Markelle Fultz, and other presumed OAD players on various teams. The NBA collective bargaining agreement is keeping the OAD rule in place for now but all parties said they would soon revisit it and there is belief league wide that they could go to a form of the baseball rule mandating 2 years instead of 3. Let's hope.
 
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To illustrate my point, some of the most influential members of our national championship teams and their Rivals rankings:

Tyler Hansbrough 5-star #10 (overall prospect rank)
Marvin Williams 5-star #11
Tywon Lawson 5-star #9
Sean May 5-star NR but #1 PF
Raymond Felton 5-star NR #1 PG
Harrison Barnes 5-star #2
Brice Johnson 4-star #49
Kendall Marshall 4-star #32
Marcus Paige 4-star #34
Reyshawn Terry 4-star #72
Wayne Ellington 5-star #8

See what I'm getting at here? Our best teams were littered with 5-stars and the occasional 4-star. We've virtually never dealt with 3-stars. The only 3-stars I see that have ever gotten anything more than mop-up minutes for us is Will Graves, Byron Sanders, Jackson Simmons, Desmond Hubert, and Stillman White.

We've never been a collection of underdogs, ever. Roy has aways needed talent to win. That's not a knock on him, it's just a fact.
 
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Also, gonna be honest, I see nothing wrong with the Grayson Allen thing against FSU. It was a good hustle play. The coach needs to get out of the way or brace his fall.
 
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TarHeelNation11 said:
To illustrate my point, some of the most influential members of our national championship teams and their Rivals rankings:

Tyler Hansbrough 5-star #10 (overall prospect rank)
Marvin Williams 5-star #11
Tywon Lawson 5-star #9
Sean May 5-star NR but #1 PF
Raymond Felton 5-star NR #1 PG
Harrison Barnes 5-star #2
Brice Johnson 4-star #49
Kendall Marshall 4-star #32
Marcus Paige 4-star #34
Reyshawn Terry 4-star #72
Wayne Ellington 5-star #8

See what I'm getting at here? Our best teams were littered with 5-stars and the occasional 4-star. We've virtually never dealt with 3-stars. The only 3-stars I see that have ever gotten anything more than mop-up minutes for us is Will Graves, Byron Sanders, Jackson Simmons, Desmond Hubert, and Stillman White.

We've never been a collection of underdogs, ever. Roy has aways needed talent to win. That's not a knock on him, it's just a fact.
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I agree that teams with 5 star players will ultimately be bigger title threats than those with 3 and 4 star talent. But only if that talent sticks around to season. We've seen a UK team with a lot of 5 star freshman talent struggle. We're seeing it now with duke. Zona, with all of their 5 star players has largely been irrelevant in grand scheme of things over the past several years. The bottom line is that you need experienced leadership. Of course you need talent. But experienced leadership is just as valuable.

And while Roy needs talent to win big, what coach doesn't? I think Roy's coaching job last year and this year show that he's a better coach than many (even our own fans) give him credit for. We are not overly talented. Hicks, Bradley, Jackson and Pinson are the only 5 stars on the team and Pinson has dealt with injuries and Hicks was overrated because he played against poor competition in high school. So essentially, we have 2 genuine 5 star players and yet we're one of the best teams in the country and we're coming off a title game appearance. Roy knows what he's doing.
 
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TarHeelNation11 said:
To illustrate my point, some of the most influential members of our national championship teams and their Rivals rankings:

Tyler Hansbrough 5-star #10 (overall prospect rank)
Marvin Williams 5-star #11
Tywon Lawson 5-star #9
Sean May 5-star NR but #1 PF
Raymond Felton 5-star NR #1 PG
Harrison Barnes 5-star #2
Brice Johnson 4-star #49
Kendall Marshall 4-star #32
Marcus Paige 4-star #34
Reyshawn Terry 4-star #72
Wayne Ellington 5-star #8

See what I'm getting at here? Our best teams were littered with 5-stars and the occasional 4-star. We've virtually never dealt with 3-stars. The only 3-stars I see that have ever gotten anything more than mop-up minutes for us is Will Graves, Byron Sanders, Jackson Simmons, Desmond Hubert, and Stillman White.

We've never been a collection of underdogs, ever. Roy has aways needed talent to win. That's not a knock on him, it's just a fact.
Click to expand...

Try to explain this to the idiots on THR and they go into a frenzy or make comparisons that Manley could become the next Jamison.
 
TarHeelNation11 said:
Also, gonna be honest, I see nothing wrong with the Grayson Allen thing against FSU. It was a good hustle play. The coach needs to get out of the way or brace his fall.
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There is no doubt that Allen purposely pushed the coach. He could have just as easily made that play without having to push the coach. I also recognize the hustle play and Allen is one of those guys that walks the fine line between dirty and "gamesmanship". We'd love him if he played for us. But he doesn't. He plays for our bitter rival. Therefore, I hope he fails at everything he does in life.
 
gunslingerdick said:
There is no doubt that Allen purposely pushed the coach. He could have just as easily made that play without having to push the coach. I also recognize the hustle play and Allen is one of those guys that walks the fine line between dirty and "gamesmanship". We'd love him if he played for us. But he doesn't. He plays for our bitter rival. Therefore, I hope he fails at everything he does in life.
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Okay, I'm just glad you recognize and admit the hypocrisy. JJ Redick would be BELOVED if he had played for Carolina.
 
I've never ever seen a player two hand shove someone in the chest so violently as they fell. I've seen grabbing, hugging, squeezing, loving, groping, fondling, grinding, fapping, spilling, rubbing, buffing,nand attempted coitus. But never a two hand shove to the chest. Sorry the verdict is in and the dookie is.....

GUILTY!!!
 
gunslingerdick said:
Huh? Neither of them had any issues while at Carolina other than McCants remarks about being in prison. But we don't typically have players that act like petulant children.
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McCants threw that stupid Jay-Z dynasty sign up all the time and Brice Johnson screamed bloody murder every time he made the tamest of blocks or dunks. We'd hate that if they played for another team.

UNC71-00 said:
Not even close dude.

You are getting a little carried away with yourself- put down the Red Bull for a while.
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I gave that up :(
 
TarHeelNation11 said:
McCants threw that stupid Jay-Z dynasty sign up all the time and Brice Johnson screamed bloody murder every time he made the tamest of blocks or dunks. We'd hate that if they played for another team.
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That may equate to Redick's flopping but Allen is a different animal. His transgressions are not at all similar to what you're talking about with McCants and Brice.
 
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